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2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

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  • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

    Originally posted by Patman View Post
    Rule of thumb... the (TV) media knows more than us on some injuries and some inside stories.

    But generally, we know more than most of the (TV) media... and further on things of technical details we know A LOT more than the media.
    The talking head on between periods of the Maine-Merrimack game said PWR meant "power rankings". You would think in the 20+ years Tim Throckmorton has been covering Maine hockey some of this might have accidentally seeped into his brain, but no.

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    • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

      Originally posted by Priceless View Post
      The talking head on between periods of the Maine-Merrimack game said PWR meant "power rankings". You would think in the 20+ years Tim Throckmorton has been covering Maine hockey some of this might have accidentally seeped into his brain, but no.
      he learned that PWR meant "power ranking" from Craig Janney
      *****

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      • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

        What are BU's chances for a bid if they lose tonight?

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        • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

          Originally posted by Yupe1228 View Post
          What are BU's chances for a bid if they lose tonight?
          Still good, but if they lose and all home teams/favorites win tonight they'd be #11 (t9) and they'd be susceptible to falling out next weekend. After the Hockey East final I project them at #13 with four CCHA teams right behind them, so they are far from safe. Conference upsets could hurt them as well if the cut line moves up from 15th.
          Short of winning, BU needs Michigan and Miami to take care of business tonight and they will be in a very strong position.

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          • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

            So as the highest 4th seed bu would get the worst 1 seed, or the ccha 1 seed if there are multiple ccha teams also seeded in a 4.

            All this means is anyplace sans Worcester is in play
            a legend and an out of work bum look a lot alike, daddy.

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            • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

              The good news for anyone on the bubble (or who could get there with losses) is that the CCHA has a four team logjam from 14-18. #14 Michigan State was shutout 6-0 last night and could be done tonight. #18 Notre Dame is also facing elimination at the hands of Michigan. #16 Northern Michigan is already done. #15 Western Michigan is the only favorite to continue after tonight. #17 Merrimack can also be done tonight. That would mean teams that are already in position for tournament bids will lock them up even with losses. Denver, Lowell and BU could be eliminated from the conference playoffs but clinch a berth anyway because no one else can catch them. It could very well be that the field we see now is the field we get for the NCAA.

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              • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                It appears that DU's making it to the tourney run through UMD and UND through MN. If doesn't get to that point, they'll probably be competing with themselves on the bubble.
                Go Gophers!

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                • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                  Originally posted by 5mn_Major View Post
                  It appears that DU's making it to the tourney run through UMD and UND through MN. If doesn't get to that point, they'll probably be competing with themselves on the bubble.
                  Not sure, 5min. See Priceless's comments above. I think that if Denver wins the next 2 against Wisconsin they will be almost safe, pending major conference tournament upsets. Wisconsin will remain a TUC, so winning 2 against them will raise DU's RPI, and improve their TUC record. They can only lose once at the F5, because there is no consolation game.

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                  • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                    To add to Priceless's comments above:

                    Suppose DU, BU and Lowell were to lose their next game.

                    Who does that leave to take auto-bids? Those who would not be in contention for an at-large?

                    AHA - Only one team in anyway.

                    ECAC - Most likely Yale or Colgate at this point, but not both.

                    HE - Providence and New Hampshire (Or, Merrimack if they turn it around fast.)

                    CCHA - Bowling Green if they beat Ferris. Notre Dame or Lake Superior if they come back to win their present series.

                    WCHA - Wisconsin, CC/MTU winner, SCSU/UNO winner.

                    Now looking at all of that, I would say that:
                    It's well possible that ECAC would end up with 3 teams.
                    Highly unlikely that we get an upset winner in HE. Can you see either of those 2 beating both Maine and BC?
                    CCHA - BG won't happen. But, it would be a great story if it did. NoDame, LSSU pretty unlikely. The best chance there is WMU, in my opinion.
                    WCHA - These guys would have to win 3 games. Hard to see them beating the gauntlet of UND, UMD, Minn.

                    So, we are really looking at 14 being the likely cutoff (13 if WMU wins out. Well, let me clarify that. WMU likely would rise higher, and 14 would still be cutoff, but WMU would take one of those spots.).

                    So, who would fill the field:

                    AHA - 1
                    ECAC - Union, Cornell, plus Yale/Colgate
                    HE - BC, Maine as we are looking now.
                    CCHA - Michigan, Miami
                    WCHA - Minn, UMD, UND.

                    That leaves 5 more spots. So, filling in from teams who could be out of their conf tourney soon:

                    Ferris State.
                    Lowell
                    BU
                    DU
                    Western, or Northern, or Michigan State, Notre Dame or Lake.

                    Take your pick on the end of that. Obviously, WMU and Lake won't both be in contention. MSU and NoDame have a tough road - winning 2 on the road.

                    It's just hard to see FSU or Lowell out under any circumstances. BU or DU out only with really bad luck - meaning CC wins the WCHA, or UNH wins HE, or MSU or NoDame start a big run....

                    Hope that helps.

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                    • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                      Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                      Hope that helps.
                      Excellent job! Always nice to see someone new understand the pairwise. Maybe you can educate a few media members!

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                      • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                        I'm off to Alfond so I won't be updating until late tonight. Taking the laptop so I might be able to tweet...follow me on Twitter @blackbear93
                        If there are any questions, I'm sure Numbers can answer them...he seems to have gotten this whole pairwise thing down pretty quickly. Scooby's right: It's simple math!

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                        • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                          I'll be following this thread nervously for the next week.
                          Go Green! Go White! Go State!

                          1966, 1986, 2007

                          Go Tigers, Go Packers, Go Red Wings, Go Pistons

                          Comment


                          • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                            Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                            Not sure, 5min. See Priceless's comments above. I think that if Denver wins the next 2 against Wisconsin they will be almost safe, pending major conference tournament upsets. Wisconsin will remain a TUC, so winning 2 against them will raise DU's RPI, and improve their TUC record. They can only lose once at the F5, because there is no consolation game.
                            Should be close. That would mean that DU loses the game to WI that they already did. In that scenario, they then win two against WI...which should result in a blow to WI PWR. But then DU losing to UMD...might still make it tough...esp if you consider it to be competing with UND.

                            But then again...I'm not smart enough to figure all this out.
                            Go Gophers!

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                            • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                              Priceless,
                              What are Maine's chances of making it in if they lose tomorrow night to MC?

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                              • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                                With Priceless' permission, I am going to go through all this again, now that the night's results are in: First, current PWR. I don't really care what the bracket would look like, so we will just list the PWR. (By the way, anyone can access it here, or on other sites as well.)

                                1-BC; 2-Mich; 3-UMD; 4-Ferris
                                5-Miami; 6-Lowell; 7-BU; 8-Minn
                                9-UND; 10-Union; 11-Maine; 12-Denver
                                13-Cornell; 14-Mich State; 15-Western Mich;
                                16-Merrimack; 17-No Mich; 18-No Dame; 19-Colo Coll

                                Of these , the following have games tomorrow night:
                                Ferris v Bowling Green; Lowell v Providence; BU v New Hampshire
                                Maine v Merrimack; Denver v Wisconsin

                                So, what are everyone's chances?
                                BC -Almost guaranteed the overall #1
                                Mich - Most likely a #1 or a high #2, depending on results next weekend.
                                UMD - Will end up a #1 or a #2, depending on next weekend
                                Ferris and Miami - I haven't tried, but it looks hard to get them out right now.
                                Lowell and BU - Same. There is not enough upward mobility left on the bubble for them to fall very far.
                                Minnesota - In. Could end up as high as #3 overall, if they win the Broadmoor next weekend.
                                No Dakota - Almost certainly in. And, this is why. They would probably have to lose 5 more comparisons to fall out of the field. The DU compare is a possibility. It is hard to create a scenario in which they lose both the Union and Cornell compares. Same with Maine and Merrimack. So, almost certainly in.
                                Union and Cornell - One win next week and they are in. Might be in without that.
                                Maine - Could lose several compares if they lose to Merrimack tomorrow night. Win, and they are in. Lose, and it's a big ??
                                Denver - If they beat Wisco tomorrow, they are all but in. I really think they are in, but I don't have time right now to run all the possibilities. Losing opens the door to losing comparisons with WestMich, Cornell, and Merrimack, and then being just on the wrong side of the bubble.
                                Merrimack - Needs a win tomorrow, and then might still have work to do.
                                Western Mich - Needs at least a win at the Joe
                                Mich State, and No Mich - Need to pull for all favorites in HE, ECAC and WCHA to win. And, for Merrimack and Western specifically to lose.
                                Everyone else needs to win their conference tourney. So, LSSU, Notre Dame, Colo Coll are out.

                                Hope this helps. Anyone with other thoughts, please add them.

                                Numbers.
                                Last edited by Numbers; 03-10-2012, 11:30 PM. Reason: Change MacNaughton to Broadmoor

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