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2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

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  • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

    Originally posted by Numbers View Post
    Priceless, As you know, i appreciate the work. The most fun I have all year is trying to work out the various possibilities, this week. Next week is less so, because everyone the YATC thing, and it takes the experimentation out of it - you know, "Well, llet's see, does it make a difference if it is a sweep or a 3 game series...."

    Are you going to keep working the possibilities as the wkend wears on? For example, what happens to Lowell's chances if Pv wins tonight...

    Thanks again.
    Of course! The fun really happens when the road teams start winning games and weird COp combinations flip comparisons after we've spent all this time talking about RPI and TUC.

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    • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

      Someday Brown will be mentioned in this thread. Probably not, but dare to dream...
      Brown Bears - 2014 National Champions

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      • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

        Originally posted by Onion Man View Post
        Someday Brown will be mentioned in this thread. Probably not, but dare to dream...

        Awwwww
        YALE HOCKEY
        2013 National Champions

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        • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

          Originally posted by LTsatch View Post
          Awwwww
          Funny Yale* was a regular on this thread last year. Seemed to disappear this year (actually they seemed to disappear ten minutes after the Regionals started last spring).
          Brown Bears - 2014 National Champions

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          • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

            Originally posted by Onion Man View Post
            Someday Brown will be mentioned in this thread. Probably not, but dare to dream...
            What about in the context of "Man, playing Brown really hurt our RPI"? :P

            Cornell '04, Stanford '06


            KDR

            Rover Frenchy, Classic! Great post.
            iwh30 I wish I could be as smart as you. I really do you are the man
            gregg729 I just saw your sig, you do love having people revel in your "intelligence."
            Ritt18 you are the perfect representation of your alma mater.
            Miss Thundercat That's it, you win.
            TBA#2 I want to kill you and dance in your blood.
            DisplacedCornellian Hahaha. Thread over. Frenchy wins.

            Test to see if I can add this.

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            • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

              Originally posted by Onion Man View Post
              Someday Brown will be mentioned in this thread. Probably not, but dare to dream...
              If Union can be in the conversation the last three years, then Brown certainly can be too eventually. As the great Tug McGraw used to say, "Ya Gotta Believe!"
              LET'S GO UNION DA DA DADADA

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              • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                Originally posted by Onion Man View Post
                Someday Brown will be mentioned in this thread. Probably not, but dare to dream...
                I mentioned them just last night!

                Originally posted by Priceless View Post
                Eliminated from consideration:
                Independent - Alabama-Huntsville
                AHA - Canisius, Army, AIC, Sacred Heart
                ECAC - Clarkson, Brown, St Lawrence, Princeton
                CCHA - Alaska, Ohio State
                Hockey East - Vermont, Northeastern

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                • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                  I'm still trying to grasp the idea that NMU isn't D.O.A.
                  It's never too early to start the Pre-game festivities

                  Go Cats!!! GO BLACKHAWKS!

                  Cuck the Fubs... Let's Go WHITE SOX!!!

                  Wildcat Born, Wildcat Bred....

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                  • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                    Originally posted by RaceBoarder View Post
                    I'm still trying to grasp the idea that NMU isn't D.O.A.
                    RPI got in last year through a similar path after losing to Colgate.
                    "I went over the facts in my head, and admired how much uglier the situation had just become. Over the years I've learned that ignorance is more than just bliss. It's freaking orgasmic ecstasy".- Harry Dresden, Blood Rites


                    Western Michigan Bronco Hockey- 2012 Mason Cup Champions

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                    • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                      Code:
                      Bridgeport	Worcester	St. Paul	Green Bay
                      Ferris St	Boston C	Minn-Duluth 	Michigan
                      Boston U	Union		Minnesota	Lowell
                      Denver		Maine		Miami		Mich State
                      Merrimack	Cornell		AHA Champ	No Dakota

                      Comment


                      • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                        Originally posted by Priceless View Post
                        2 things:
                        1) You can't send me anonymous neg rep because I pay for Extra and can see who sent it.
                        2) If you want to send me neg rep and call me names that's fine, but I fully expect you to post your work in this thread for everyone to judge.

                        Playoffs begin tonight with Providence at Lowell. The Chiefs clinch an NCAA berth with a sweep.
                        blow hard!!! -rimmy
                        a legend and an out of work bum look a lot alike, daddy.

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                        • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                          Interesting, Priceless. I get:

                          Originally posted by Priceless View Post
                          Code:
                          Bridgeport	Worcester	St. Paul	Green Bay
                          Ferris St	Boston C	Minn-Duluth 	Michigan
                          Boston U	Union		Minnesota	Lowell
                          Denver		Maine		Miami		Mich State
                          Cornell	        AHA Champ	Merrimack	No Dakota
                          Which are really minimal changes in the 4th seeds compared to yours. But, I think it makes sense to keep AHA with BC. And, I like what you did in swapping the MSU/UND game with the Denver game to get Mich State in Green Bay. I don't know the east very well. Is there a big difference in attendance expected in Bridgeport with Merrimack rather than Cornell? Thanks.

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                          • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                            Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                            Interesting, Priceless. I get:



                            Which are really minimal changes in the 4th seeds compared to yours. But, I think it makes sense to keep AHA with BC. And, I like what you did in swapping the MSU/UND game with the Denver game to get Mich State in Green Bay. I don't know the east very well. Is there a big difference in attendance expected in Bridgeport with Merrimack rather than Cornell? Thanks.
                            I show UMD as the #1 overall seed because they win the comparison with BC 2-1. The comparison they lose is to #7 Minnesota. USCHO and other sites break ties by RPI so they have BC as the #1 overall seed. According to an email I received from Jayson Moy last year, the NCAA has never clarified how H2H ties are broken. The NCAA uses RPI to break ties when three or more teams are involved, but we still don't know about two team ties. I have searched the forum posts from last year and this came up then as well. As I wrote last year "We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams" which I interpret to mean they break ties between two teams by looking at the comparison. I could have sworn the NCAA did clarify this, but I was unable to find anything in the forum archives or my own email.

                            ETA: The calculator at slack.net does default to UMD as #1 overall, not BC.

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                            • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                              Originally posted by Priceless View Post
                              I show UMD as the #1 overall seed because they win the comparison with BC 2-1. The comparison they lose is to #7 Minnesota. USCHO and other sites break ties by RPI so they have BC as the #1 overall seed. According to an email I received from Jayson Moy last year, the NCAA has never clarified how H2H ties are broken. The NCAA uses RPI to break ties when three or more teams are involved, but we still don't know about two team ties. I have searched the forum posts from last year and this came up then as well. As I wrote last year "We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams" which I interpret to mean they break ties between two teams by looking at the comparison. I could have sworn the NCAA did clarify this, but I was unable to find anything in the forum archives or my own email.

                              ETA: The calculator at slack.net does default to UMD as #1 overall, not BC.
                              That does make for an interesting discussion, doesn't it? My personal opinion (and I don't know if the committee has lee way to do this. I know they would on the women's side, but it's a different set of rules that governs the process there) would be that regardless of the details of the comparison between UMD and BC, right now the RPI advantage that BC has should be the dominant feature if you are trying to figure out which is stronger. But, that's just one man's opinion...

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                              • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                                I was looking back through the archives last night and came upon this contradiction. The top seeds in 2005 were Boston College, Minnesota (host), Denver and CC. There was a 3-way tie for 11th between BU, Maine and Wisconsin. Were this three way tie broken by RPI then the result would have been:
                                11 Boston Univ (HE) 16 0.5685
                                12 Maine (HE) 16 0.5607
                                13 Wisconsin (WC) 16 0.5537

                                Maine and BU would be #3 seeds and Wisconsin would have been a #4. Boston College would have been forced to play Wisconsin to avoid a WCHA game in round one. Instead, that tie was broken:
                                11 Wisconsin (WC) 16 0.5537
                                12 Boston Univ (HE) 16 0.5685
                                13 Maine (HE) 16 0.5607

                                The Badgers won the comparisons vs Maine and Boston University, despite having the lowest RPI of the three. BU won the comparison with Maine and was seeded 12th. Wisconsin became a #3 seed and an all-WCHA game was averted as Maine dropped to #4 and went to Minnesota.

                                Contrast that with 2007 when St Lawrence, UMass and Maine were again tied at 11th place. Had the committee followed precedent the tie would have been broken:
                                11 Mass-Amherst (HE) 13 0.5328
                                12 St Lawrence (EC) 13 0.5384
                                13 Maine (HE) 13 0.5366

                                as the Minutemen won comparisons with both SLU and Maine. SLU then won the comparison with Maine. However, they chose to break the tie by RPI:
                                11 St Lawrence (EC) 13 0.5384
                                12 Maine (HE) 13 0.5366
                                13 Mass-Amherst (HE) 13 0.5328

                                So UMA was the #4 seed that played Clarkson while Maine was a #3 seed and played St. Cloud.

                                We have been operating under the belief that the NCAA would break ties involving three teams or more by RPI, however the 2005 case shows that they also break ties using comparisons. The same logic can hold true with ties of two teams. The NCAA has not clarified how ties are broken. More than likely, it is so they can avoid a case like 2005 when they would have either sent #4 Wisconsin to #1 Minnesota or #1 Boston College. This gives them added flexibility at the expense of transparency.

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