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2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

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  • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

    What teams need to make the tournament:

    Eliminated from consideration:
    Independent - Alabama-Huntsville
    AHA - Canisius, Army, AIC, Sacred Heart
    ECAC - Clarkson, Brown, St Lawrence, Princeton
    CCHA - Alaska, Ohio State
    Hockey East - Vermont, Northeastern

    Need the autobid:
    AHA - Everyone
    ECAC - Dartmouth, Quinnipiac, Yale, RPI, Colgate, Harvard
    CCHA - Lake Superior, Bowling Green
    WCHA - Alaska-Anchorage, Bemidji State, Wisconsin, St Cloud, Michigan Tech, Nebraska-Omaha, Mankato
    Hockey East - UMass, Providence, New Hampshire

    In:
    Hockey East - Boston College

    In with a sweep this weekend:
    CCHA - Michigan, Ferris State, Miami
    WCHA - Minnesota, Minn-Duluth
    Hockey East - Lowell, Boston University, Maine

    So if all the above teams sweep there will be ten spots taken. (8+BC+AHA autobid)
    All those teams can still get in if they lose this weekend.

    What bubble teams need to do (short of winning the autobid)
    ECAC -
    Union: Win a TUC game at Atlantic City.
    Cornell: Win a TUC game at Atlantic City

    CCHA -
    Western Michigan: Win this weekend. Win a TUC game at the Joe and hope for help.
    Michigan State: Win this weekend. Win a TUC game at the Joe OR hope for help.
    Notre Dame: Win this weekend. Win a TUC game at the Joe and hope for help.
    Northern Michigan: Eliminated from the CCHA tournament. Must hope for help.

    WCHA -
    Denver: Win a game at the Final Five or hope for help.
    North Dakota: Win a game at the Final Five or hope for help.
    Colorado College: Win two games at the Final Five and/or hope for help.

    Hockey East -
    Merrimack: Win one and hope for help. Win this weekend and one in Boston.

    Notes:
    The losers of Michigan State/Miami and Merrimack/Maine series are not eliminated. They will need help, but they aren't out.
    Because of the third-place game, the ECAC can still put three team in the tournament.
    The odds of Northern Michigan making the field are still very good, as long as there aren't upset winners taking the autobids and moving the cut line up.

    As always, there are going to be scenarios out there I haven't calculated. Jim Dahl showed us earlier how many scenarios there still are and I would still be doing the calculations from the retirement home if I tried them all. These are the most likely scenarios. The easiest way to get into the tournament is always to win your conference and get the autobid.
    Last edited by Priceless; 03-07-2012, 09:59 PM.

    Comment


    • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

      The script for all remaining games:


      20120309 Pv 0 ML 1 nc
      20120309 MA 0 BC 1 nc
      20120309 NH 0 BU 1 nc
      20120309 Mr 0 Me 1 nc
      20120309 Pv 0 ML 1 nc
      20120309 MA 0 BC 1 nc
      20120309 NH 0 BU 1 nc
      20120309 Mr 0 Me 1 nc
      20120309 Me 0 BC 1 nc
      20120309 BU 0 ML 1 nc
      20120309 ML 0 BC 1 nc

      20120309 AA 0 Mn 1 nc
      20120309 MT 0 CC 1 nc
      20120309 Wi 0 DU 1 nc
      20120309 BS 0 ND 1 nc
      20120309 NO 0 SC 1 nc
      20120309 Mk 0 MD 1 nc
      20120309 AA 0 Mn 1 nc
      20120309 MT 0 CC 1 nc
      20120309 Wi 0 DU 1 nc
      20120309 BS 0 ND 1 nc
      20120309 NO 0 SC 1 nc
      20120309 Mk 0 MD 1 nc
      20120309 SC 0 DU 1 nc
      20120309 CC 0 ND 1 nc
      20120309 ND 0 Mn 1 nc
      20120309 DU 0 MD 1 nc
      20120309 MD 0 Mn 1 nc

      20120309 Qn 0 Cg 1 nc
      20120309 Da 0 Cr 1 nc
      20120309 Ya 0 Ha 1 nc
      20120309 RP 0 Un 1 nc
      20120309 Qn 0 Cg 1 nc
      20120309 Da 0 Cr 1 nc
      20120309 Ya 0 Ha 1 nc
      20120309 RP 0 Un 1 nc
      20120309 Cg 0 Un 1 nc
      20120309 Ha 0 Cr 1 nc
      20120309 Cg 0 Ha 1 nc
      20120309 Cr 0 Un 1 nc

      20120309 MS 0 Mm 1 nc
      20120309 BG 0 FS 1 nc
      20120309 Nt 0 Mi 1 nc
      20120309 LS 0 WM 1 nc
      20120309 MS 0 Mm 1 nc
      20120309 BG 0 FS 1 nc
      20120309 Nt 0 Mi 1 nc
      20120309 LS 0 WM 1 nc
      20120309 Mm 0 FS 1 nc
      20120309 WM 0 Mi 1 nc
      20120309 Mm 0 WM 1 nc
      20120309 Mi 0 FS 1 nc

      20120309 Ct 0 AF 1 nc
      20120309 HC 0 Mh 1 nc
      20120309 RM 0 Ni 1 nc
      20120309 By 0 RT 1 nc
      20120309 Ct 0 AF 1 nc
      20120309 HC 0 Mh 1 nc
      20120309 RM 0 Ni 1 nc
      20120309 By 0 RT 1 nc
      20120309 Mh 0 AF 1 nc
      20120309 RT 0 Ni 1 nc
      20120309 Ni 0 AF 1 nc

      0=Loser,1=Winner
      To change the outcome change the 0 to a 2
      If you change the outcomes remember:
      - To add a third game if needed
      - To change the teams in semifinals/finals/third-place game.

      If higher seeds win every game:


      1 Boston Coll (HE)
      2 Ferris State (CC)
      3 Michigan (CC)
      4 Minnesota (WC)
      5 Union (EC)
      6 Mass-Lowell (HE)
      7 Minn-Duluth (WC)
      8 Boston Univ (HE)
      9 Denver U (WC)
      10 North Dakota (WC)
      11 Miami (CC)
      12 Maine (HE)
      13 Cornell (EC)
      14 Mich State (CC)
      15 Western Mich (CC)
      ---
      16 Northern Mich (CC)


      Code:
      Bridgeport	Worcester	St. Paul	Green Bay
      Ferris St	Boston C	Minnesota	Michigan
      Minn-Duluth	Boston U	Union		Lowell
      Maine		Denver		No Dakota	Miami
      Air Force	W Mich		Mich St		Cornell
      The TUC line

      NorthEastern 0.5071
      Niagara 0.5066
      Wisconsin 0.5064
      Quinnipiac 0.5039
      Bemidji State 0.5032
      RIT 0.5023
      --
      Mass-Amherst 0.4979
      New Hampshire 0.4955
      Last edited by Priceless; 03-07-2012, 07:53 PM.

      Comment


      • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

        Does Miami plan on using a split squad? Good to see the NCAA banning UND already.
        tUMD

        Comment


        • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

          Hey... Jim Dahl... if you're lurking around here I'm trying to register for the Sioux Sports boards (as UML Pat) to leave a comment about automation. I don't know what software you're using but its fairly easy to create dynamically named graphs in R so long as you are able to index the team name and the results... the "paste" command is fairly useful for concatenating strings. So, as long as your output is fairly sane I'm sure you can read in and get going. Let me know.

          Code:
          for(index in 1:nteams){
          plot(rank.ord~prob[index,],xlim=c(min(rank.ord[prob!=0,]),max(rank.ord[prob!=0,])),ylim=c(0,1))
          title(paste("Pairwise Scenario for ",team.names[index],"blahblah",sep=""),"Pairwise Rank")
          }
          Certainly some data prep needed... maybe some messing around with plotting options, but nothing crazy.
          Last edited by Patman; 03-07-2012, 09:27 PM.
          BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

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          • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

            For Priceless,

            I thought I saw earlier that you couldn't get BC below 7th. What's up now? Is there some change because of losing Mass-Amherst and UNH as TUCs that changes that?

            Thanks.

            Comment


            • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

              Originally posted by Numbers View Post
              For Priceless,

              I thought I saw earlier that you couldn't get BC below 7th. What's up now? Is there some change because of losing Mass-Amherst and UNH as TUCs that changes that?

              Thanks.
              Correct. I mixed up Michigan and BC. Fixed.

              Comment


              • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                How the heck does that mixup even happen?

                Comment


                • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                  Originally posted by BUPhD View Post
                  How the heck does that mixup even happen?
                  Lots and lots of alcohol.
                  Gary

                  www.umlhockey.com
                  Unofficial Home of Lowell Hockey

                  182nd member to 2,000 posts
                  "It's like putting lipstick on a pig." Chris MacKenzie says, speaking of the fresh paint on the visiting locker room at Alfond.
                  KnowItAll: "I have little respect for the imagination and creativity of a person who can only think of ONE way to spell a word."

                  Comment


                  • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                    Originally posted by Patman View Post
                    Hey... Jim Dahl... if you're lurking around here I'm trying to register for the Sioux Sports boards (as UML Pat) to leave a comment about automation. I don't know what software you're using but its fairly easy to create dynamically named graphs in R so long as you are able to index the team name and the results... the "paste" command is fairly useful for concatenating strings. So, as long as your output is fairly sane I'm sure you can read in and get going. Let me know.

                    Code:
                    for(index in 1:nteams){
                    plot(rank.ord~prob[index,],xlim=c(min(rank.ord[prob!=0,]),max(rank.ord[prob!=0,])),ylim=c(0,1))
                    title(paste("Pairwise Scenario for ",team.names[index],"blahblah",sep=""),"Pairwise Rank")
                    }
                    Certainly some data prep needed... maybe some messing around with plotting options, but nothing crazy.
                    You're not the first... some of my colleagues swear by R for datavis. As you alluded to, the data prep is the missing piece. There's nothing hard about it, the crux of my problem is that I only think about this stuff for about 2 months a year, and then have to devote the available time to creating the product (80% of which is data transformation). I just need to devote some time in the off-season to automating that, which is a definite goal.

                    Comment


                    • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                      Priceless, if Union doesn't make it to AC, can we still make the tournament?

                      And are we pretty much guaranteed to make the tournament if we win one TUC game in AC?

                      Thanks in advance.
                      LET'S GO UNION DA DA DADADA

                      Comment


                      • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                        Originally posted by UnionHockeyManiac View Post
                        Priceless, if Union doesn't make it to AC, can we still make the tournament?

                        And are we pretty much guaranteed to make the tournament if we win one TUC game in AC?

                        Thanks in advance.
                        2 losses to RPI would crater your RPI and flip about 5 comparisons. That would drop you to ~13th and place you squarely on the bubble.
                        Because the ECAC has a third-place game, if you went to AC and didn't win a game, that would mean you went 0-2 against TUC. Union doesn't have a lot of margin when it comes to TUC (but that changes if UNH drops out and RIT keeps winning). Even winning the consolation game would probably be a TUC win.

                        Comment


                        • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                          2 things:
                          1) You can't send me anonymous neg rep because I pay for Extra and can see who sent it.
                          2) If you want to send me neg rep and call me names that's fine, but I fully expect you to post your work in this thread for everyone to judge.

                          Playoffs begin tonight with Providence at Lowell. The Chiefs clinch an NCAA berth with a sweep.

                          Comment


                          • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                            Originally posted by Priceless View Post
                            2 things:
                            1) You can't send me anonymous neg rep because I pay for Extra and can see who sent it.
                            2) If you want to send me neg rep and call me names that's fine, but I fully expect you to post your work in this thread for everyone to judge.

                            Playoffs begin tonight with Providence at Lowell. The Chiefs clinch an NCAA berth with a sweep.
                            You suck!
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                            • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                              Originally posted by Priceless View Post
                              2 things:
                              1) You can't send me anonymous neg rep because I pay for Extra and can see who sent it.
                              2) If you want to send me neg rep and call me names that's fine, but I fully expect you to post your work in this thread for everyone to judge.

                              Playoffs begin tonight with Providence at Lowell. The Chiefs clinch an NCAA berth with a sweep.
                              Priceless, As you know, i appreciate the work. The most fun I have all year is trying to work out the various possibilities, this week. Next week is less so, because everyone the YATC thing, and it takes the experimentation out of it - you know, "Well, llet's see, does it make a difference if it is a sweep or a 3 game series...."

                              Are you going to keep working the possibilities as the wkend wears on? For example, what happens to Lowell's chances if Pv wins tonight...

                              Thanks again.

                              Comment


                              • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                                Originally posted by JimDahl View Post
                                You're not the first... some of my colleagues swear by R for datavis. As you alluded to, the data prep is the missing piece. There's nothing hard about it, the crux of my problem is that I only think about this stuff for about 2 months a year, and then have to devote the available time to creating the product (80% of which is data transformation). I just need to devote some time in the off-season to automating that, which is a definite goal.
                                well, the thing is it sounds like you've already made a good distance on the headway.

                                As for data vis... I'm not sold on R per se but its a lot more flexible than SAS (I'm a statistician) when manipulating the heck out of stuff. SAS is still better with data but you can do some real contorting in R.
                                BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

                                Jerseys I would like to have:
                                Skating Friar Jersey
                                AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
                                UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
                                Army Black Knight logo jersey


                                NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer

                                Comment

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