Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology
What teams need to make the tournament:
Eliminated from consideration:
Independent - Alabama-Huntsville
AHA - Canisius, Army, AIC, Sacred Heart
ECAC - Clarkson, Brown, St Lawrence, Princeton
CCHA - Alaska, Ohio State
Hockey East - Vermont, Northeastern
Need the autobid:
AHA - Everyone
ECAC - Dartmouth, Quinnipiac, Yale, RPI, Colgate, Harvard
CCHA - Lake Superior, Bowling Green
WCHA - Alaska-Anchorage, Bemidji State, Wisconsin, St Cloud, Michigan Tech, Nebraska-Omaha, Mankato
Hockey East - UMass, Providence, New Hampshire
In:
Hockey East - Boston College
In with a sweep this weekend:
CCHA - Michigan, Ferris State, Miami
WCHA - Minnesota, Minn-Duluth
Hockey East - Lowell, Boston University, Maine
So if all the above teams sweep there will be ten spots taken. (8+BC+AHA autobid)
All those teams can still get in if they lose this weekend.
What bubble teams need to do (short of winning the autobid)
ECAC -
Union: Win a TUC game at Atlantic City.
Cornell: Win a TUC game at Atlantic City
CCHA -
Western Michigan: Win this weekend. Win a TUC game at the Joe and hope for help.
Michigan State: Win this weekend. Win a TUC game at the Joe OR hope for help.
Notre Dame: Win this weekend. Win a TUC game at the Joe and hope for help.
Northern Michigan: Eliminated from the CCHA tournament. Must hope for help.
WCHA -
Denver: Win a game at the Final Five or hope for help.
North Dakota: Win a game at the Final Five or hope for help.
Colorado College: Win two games at the Final Five and/or hope for help.
Hockey East -
Merrimack: Win one and hope for help. Win this weekend and one in Boston.
Notes:
The losers of Michigan State/Miami and Merrimack/Maine series are not eliminated. They will need help, but they aren't out.
Because of the third-place game, the ECAC can still put three team in the tournament.
The odds of Northern Michigan making the field are still very good, as long as there aren't upset winners taking the autobids and moving the cut line up.
As always, there are going to be scenarios out there I haven't calculated. Jim Dahl showed us earlier how many scenarios there still are and I would still be doing the calculations from the retirement home if I tried them all. These are the most likely scenarios. The easiest way to get into the tournament is always to win your conference and get the autobid.
What teams need to make the tournament:
Eliminated from consideration:
Independent - Alabama-Huntsville
AHA - Canisius, Army, AIC, Sacred Heart
ECAC - Clarkson, Brown, St Lawrence, Princeton
CCHA - Alaska, Ohio State
Hockey East - Vermont, Northeastern
Need the autobid:
AHA - Everyone
ECAC - Dartmouth, Quinnipiac, Yale, RPI, Colgate, Harvard
CCHA - Lake Superior, Bowling Green
WCHA - Alaska-Anchorage, Bemidji State, Wisconsin, St Cloud, Michigan Tech, Nebraska-Omaha, Mankato
Hockey East - UMass, Providence, New Hampshire
In:
Hockey East - Boston College
In with a sweep this weekend:
CCHA - Michigan, Ferris State, Miami
WCHA - Minnesota, Minn-Duluth
Hockey East - Lowell, Boston University, Maine
So if all the above teams sweep there will be ten spots taken. (8+BC+AHA autobid)
All those teams can still get in if they lose this weekend.
What bubble teams need to do (short of winning the autobid)
ECAC -
Union: Win a TUC game at Atlantic City.
Cornell: Win a TUC game at Atlantic City
CCHA -
Western Michigan: Win this weekend. Win a TUC game at the Joe and hope for help.
Michigan State: Win this weekend. Win a TUC game at the Joe OR hope for help.
Notre Dame: Win this weekend. Win a TUC game at the Joe and hope for help.
Northern Michigan: Eliminated from the CCHA tournament. Must hope for help.
WCHA -
Denver: Win a game at the Final Five or hope for help.
North Dakota: Win a game at the Final Five or hope for help.
Colorado College: Win two games at the Final Five and/or hope for help.
Hockey East -
Merrimack: Win one and hope for help. Win this weekend and one in Boston.
Notes:
The losers of Michigan State/Miami and Merrimack/Maine series are not eliminated. They will need help, but they aren't out.
Because of the third-place game, the ECAC can still put three team in the tournament.
The odds of Northern Michigan making the field are still very good, as long as there aren't upset winners taking the autobids and moving the cut line up.
As always, there are going to be scenarios out there I haven't calculated. Jim Dahl showed us earlier how many scenarios there still are and I would still be doing the calculations from the retirement home if I tried them all. These are the most likely scenarios. The easiest way to get into the tournament is always to win your conference and get the autobid.
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