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Priceless
03-15-2012, 10:21 AM
Merrimack... maybe not with your conditions but I have one that puts both NMU and Merrimack in... further down thread.
Found it, thanks. Pretty narrow window for MC.

aparch
03-15-2012, 04:58 PM
One game down, eighteen left to play to decide the NCAA invites.

Denver University knocks off Michigan Tech in OT to open WCHA Final Five play.

Bubble teams can take a breath tonight.

Chris_NH
03-15-2012, 07:24 PM
What is interesting, is that BC winds up #2 if they lose to Providence

What's even MORE interesting is that BC can wind up being #2 even if they WIN the Hockey East tournament.

Priceless
03-15-2012, 07:49 PM
I can't get North Dakota out. I think the Denver win clinched for them. Denver still can miss the field...

Priceless
03-15-2012, 10:02 PM
It now appears the these teams are safe:
Hockey East - BC, BU, Lowell, Maine
ECAC - Union
CCHA - Michigan, Miami, Ferris State
WCHA - Minnesota, Duluth, Denver, North Dakota

The bubble is now down to
Cornell, Western Michigan, Michigan State, Northern Michigan and Merrimack.

Those five teams are fighting for the last three spots. Cornell is in the best position: if they win the ECAC I have placed them as high as #6 overall.

Providence and Bowling Green need to win the autobid. If either or both make it through and capture their league crown, they will take away a spot on the bubble. Also, they will be below the AHA Champ (unless Mercyhurst wins) and will be the #16 seed. A potential first round game is the Jerry York Bowl between the two schools he led to an NCAA crown.

JimDahl
03-15-2012, 10:16 PM
It now appears the these teams are safe:
Hockey East - BC, BU, Lowell, Maine
ECAC - Union
CCHA - Michigan, Miami, Ferris State
WCHA - Minnesota, Duluth, Denver, North Dakota

The bubble is now down to
Cornell, Western Michigan, Michigan State, Northern Michigan and Merrimack.

Those five teams are fighting for the last three spots. Cornell is in the best position: if they win the ECAC I have placed them as high as #6 overall.

Providence and Bowling Green need to win the autobid. If either or both make it through and capture their league crown, they will take away a spot on the bubble. Also, they will be below the AHA Champ (unless Mercyhurst wins) and will be the #16 seed. A potential first round game is the Jerry York Bowl between the two schools he led to an NCAA crown.

It's pretty unlikely for anything to fall outside those, but Maine, Lowell, Union, and Denver stand a non-negligible chance of missing. Cornell could climb to a 1 seed at #4 overall, but extremely unlikely. And, at a minimum, I think the #13s still mathematically stand a chance of missing (if all remaining conferences went "wrong"), so Minnesota, BU, and Miami.

Here's what I'm coming up with -- Thursday night PWR possibilties update, Sioux seem a lock for NCAAs (http://blog.siouxsports.com/2012/03/15/thursday-night-pwr-possibilties-update-sioux-seem-a-lock-for-ncaas/). Caveat -- my quality control plummets mid-evening under mid-game time pressure, so there's a reasonable chance I'm wrong.

Numbers
03-15-2012, 10:16 PM
Priceless,

From a few pages back, a scenario with Lowell out. Still applies tonight. Swapping the Denver/UND game doesn't make a difference. Nor, turning the entire CCHA upside down(means WMU beats Mich in final, Miami wins conso).


Here's one that puts Lowell home... really difficult to pull off... unsure about sensitivity.

WCHA Play-in #2: Denver defeats Michigan Tech.
WCHA Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Denver defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
WCHA Semifinal #1: North Dakota defeats Minnesota.
WCHA Championship game: North Dakota defeats Denver.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston University.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Providence defeats Boston College.
Hockey East Championship game: Providence defeats Maine.
ECAC Semifinal #2: Harvard defeats Cornell.
ECAC Semifinal #1: Union defeats Colgate.
ECAC Championship game: Harvard defeats Union.
ECAC Consolation game: Cornell defeats Colgate.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Miami defeats Western Michigan.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Bowling Green defeats Michigan.
CCHA Championship game: Bowling Green defeats Miami.
CCHA Consolation game: Michigan defeats Western Michigan.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: RIT defeats Niagara.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Air Force defeats Mercyhurst.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Air Force defeats RIT.

#13 PWR... 4 AQ off-list (PC, BGSU, Harvard, Air Force)


Interestingly enough, the one single piece that makes this result possible is that Lowell loses the compare to Air Force. Of course, AFA is in the field anyway, but losing that compare lowers their number of wins by (1), of course, and keeps them out of a tie with Cornell, which Lowell would win, and thus be in the field. RIT losing in the AHA semis drops them from TUC status, and improves Lowell's TUC record enough to put them in.

Numbers
03-15-2012, 10:19 PM
It's pretty unlikely for anything to fall outside those, but Maine and Lowell stand a non-negligible chance of missing. Cornell could climb to a 1 seed at #4 overall, but extremely unlikely. And, at a minimum, I think the #13s could still miss (if all remaining conferences went "wrong"), so Minnesota, BU, and Miami.

Here's what I'm coming up with -- Thursday night PWR possibilties update, Sioux seem a lock for NCAAs (http://blog.siouxsports.com/2012/03/15/thursday-night-pwr-possibilties-update-sioux-seem-a-lock-for-ncaas/). Caveat -- mid-evening under mid-game time pressure my quality control plummets, so there's a reasonable chance I'm wrong.

Jim, not anyone could say they have tested all the possibilities, but I played with the Minnesota situation quite a bit earlier, looking at the possible compares they could lose, and for all I tried, I couldn't find a way to get them out. Get them to #13, yes, but not if all the upsets happened elsewhere. I would be more than happy to proven wrong, however.

Numbers
03-15-2012, 10:21 PM
Also, Jim. Can you find the scenario that leaves Maine totally out? I can get them to the very edge, but always in because they win the tiebreak with Cornell. And, making Cornell conference champ leaves out Harvard or Colgate, so it doesn't change anything.

Thanks for the work.

Numbers
03-15-2012, 10:30 PM
See the above post about a way for Lowell to be out. Replace Air Force over RIT in the AHA final, with RIT over Air Force, and you have the basis of a way for Cornell to win a game this weekend, and still be out.

Patman
03-15-2012, 10:46 PM
What I don't see is 13th at 5.5% (or whatnot) vis a vis out of the NCAAs... I know they may decide the ties some other way but "in" "out" and "tied for in/out" would certainly be a useful thing to calculate.

JimDahl
03-15-2012, 11:10 PM
What I don't see is 13th at 5.5% (or whatnot) vis a vis out of the NCAAs... I know they may decide the ties some other way but "in" "out" and "tied for in/out" would certainly be a useful thing to calculate.

Good observation. Since I'm breaking ties by RPI, I can't guarantee that #13 doesn't actually mean 3-way tie for 13 but winning an RPI tie-breaker, such that the assumption that 13 is safe is untrue (because the real tie-breaker would result in 14 or 15). I've thought for a few years that it was generally agreed that RPI broke all ties, but that's been challenged more than ever this year, to the point that I have been pondering how to deal with it, but it's certainly going to be much more complex than just breaking ties by RPI and ranking, which is why you don't see it yet.

Numbers
03-15-2012, 11:18 PM
Good observation. Since I'm breaking ties by RPI, I can't guarantee that #13 doesn't actually mean 3-way tie for 13 but winning an RPI tie-breaker, such that the assumption that 13 is safe is untrue (because the real tie-breaker would result in 14 or 15). I've thought for a few years that it was generally agreed that RPI broke all ties, but that's been challenged more than ever this year, to the point that I have been pondering how to deal with it, but it's certainly going to be much more complex than just breaking ties by RPI and ranking, which is why you don't see it yet.

Jim,

Sorry to comment without having looked at your site recently. My question would be as above, in regard to tie breaking procedure, but also my question would be like this:
BTU (Big Time University) has x % of being 13th in the PWR. This is useful information, but what we really want to know is; "13th with how many AQs that have lower rankings or are unranked?" For example, you mentioned earlier that Minnesota can bde 13th. On the surface, one would say, "Oh, 13th and they could be out of the tourney, because there still could be 4 AQs underneath them." But, does the program count that, too? In other words, X % 13th and no AQs lower, Y% with 1 AQ lower (I would count this as the 14th team in), Z% 13th and 2 AQs lower, etc..

Is that clear?

Spartanforlife4
03-15-2012, 11:21 PM
Are there updated rankings anywhere?

EDIT: nvm, I think USCHO has updated it already.

SJHovey
03-15-2012, 11:23 PM
Are there updated rankings anywhere?

EDIT: nvm, I think USCHO has updated it already.I think siouxsports.com is up to date, and has Sparty at 14.

Patman
03-16-2012, 03:31 AM
Jim, I can do what I propose quite easily... I'm unsure why you can't or shouldn't

Numbers
03-16-2012, 07:10 AM
Patman,

Are you thinking about what I wrote above? That Jim's program only needs one more piece - after each result comes up and the PWR ranking is added to the other results, that the program also decides IN, OUT or TIED, and tabulates that as well?

I am no programmer. But, this is my guess. He is using the same program he has used all year, and the idea of who is the conference champ doesn't enter in really until this weekend, because his focus is on the PWR Ranking.

I may have the wrong focus, but I keep thinking that, especially for bubble teams, I don't really care how likely it is that my team ends up 13th, 14th, or 15th. What I really want to know is: What are the odds that we are in or out, and the simple number doesn't tell me that.

Patman
03-16-2012, 07:23 AM
Patman,

Are you thinking about what I wrote above? That Jim's program only needs one more piece - after each result comes up and the PWR ranking is added to the other results, that the program also decides IN, OUT or TIED, and tabulates that as well?

I am no programmer. But, this is my guess. He is using the same program he has used all year, and the idea of who is the conference champ doesn't enter in really until this weekend, because his focus is on the PWR Ranking.

I may have the wrong focus, but I keep thinking that, especially for bubble teams, I don't really care how likely it is that my team ends up 13th, 14th, or 15th. What I really want to know is: What are the odds that we are in or out, and the simple number doesn't tell me that.

Well, that's the thing,.. I am a programmer and I don't see the operation being that difficult.

When I tried writing a simulator before I had this worked out... And while the variation I'm suggesting wasn't done I know exactly how I would write it. That's all

Eaglefan06
03-16-2012, 07:13 PM
Lowell is in with PC's loss tonight.

Anyone find any scenarios where BC is not the #1 overall seed anymore? If I'm not mistaken, I think this win over PC locks them into the #1 overall seed even if they lose tomorrow.

NMUFAN21
03-16-2012, 07:16 PM
Any new NMU scenarios?