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2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

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  • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

    More interestingly, to me, is to look way down the road 2 weeks from now. It is not difficult to create a scenario where Michigan and FSU are both #1s. (If you guys want to try, it seems to me that it requires FSU winning the CCHA tourney - otherwise they can end behind Minn/UMD and Union. At least, in the scenario where higher seeds win.) At the same time, I can get MichState and WeMich or MichState and NoMich at #14 and #15 pretty easy, too.

    Big deal, you say?? Well, think about it. 2 CCHA #1s, 2 CCHA #4s. So, the committee likely wants to avoid matching them in round one. So, the alternative is to do, for example: Michigan v AHA, and BC v NoMich. All of which would happen with BC as a strong overall #1 seed. In some way, maybe that is the nightmare scenario for the committee.

    I think that in that case, I would look to see if there were a CCHA/CCHA matchup available to me that hadn't been played for a long time, and I would use that and the 5-team rule, so I could still have BC v AHA. Michigan/Western would be the best hope of that.

    Comments??

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    • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

      Originally posted by Numbers View Post
      More interestingly, to me, is to look way down the road 2 weeks from now. It is not difficult to create a scenario where Michigan and FSU are both #1s. (If you guys want to try, it seems to me that it requires FSU winning the CCHA tourney - otherwise they can end behind Minn/UMD and Union. At least, in the scenario where higher seeds win.) At the same time, I can get MichState and WeMich or MichState and NoMich at #14 and #15 pretty easy, too.

      Big deal, you say?? Well, think about it. 2 CCHA #1s, 2 CCHA #4s. So, the committee likely wants to avoid matching them in round one. So, the alternative is to do, for example: Michigan v AHA, and BC v NoMich. All of which would happen with BC as a strong overall #1 seed. In some way, maybe that is the nightmare scenario for the committee.

      I think that in that case, I would look to see if there were a CCHA/CCHA matchup available to me that hadn't been played for a long time, and I would use that and the 5-team rule, so I could still have BC v AHA. Michigan/Western would be the best hope of that.

      Comments??
      The committee has gone that route before so I think they'd use it as precedent... The thing is that the AHA team will be that "bad" (can certainly still unseat a national #1 in a one-game situation) compared to the other #4s. Nevertheless, it would give them all an easy-out.

      What is it? 5 teams before such a sacrifice is made? That is, you can have within conference as an opening-round match?

      More likely to me... the line will be 14 and not 15... that will happen if neither Union or Cornell win the ECAC and if we know anything about the ECAC, random rules the day. Harvard could have the whole field reaching for the antacids.
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      • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

        So have any of you guys posted a "who is locked into the NCAAs no matter what" post yet in this thread? (hint, hint) I imagine there have to be a few by now.

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        • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

          In 2003 the WCHA had #2, #3, #10, #13 and #14. Cornell was the overall #1 and drew a WCHA team rather than one of the two autobids. CC and Minnesota played Wayne State and Mercyhurst while New Hampshire and Cornell played St. Cloud and Mankato. In fact, the committee had #1 Cornell play #13 Mankato. So I doubt the committee will allow any conference matchups if they can at all be avoided, 5 teams or not.

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          • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

            Originally posted by IrishHockeyFan View Post
            So have any of you guys posted a "who is locked into the NCAAs no matter what" post yet in this thread? (hint, hint) I imagine there have to be a few by now.
            Tomorrow

            I'm planning to do "Already in" and "Need an auto bid or else" lists.

            Comment


            • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

              Originally posted by IrishHockeyFan View Post
              So have any of you guys posted a "who is locked into the NCAAs no matter what" post yet in this thread? (hint, hint) I imagine there have to be a few by now.
              That isn't easy... i've been using the playoffstatus.com website for my info.... but realistically, you can't crank through every possibility and really only go with those that are most probabilistic. Next week will give us a lot more options because the number of games left drops.

              Keep in mind, its not impossible for all 5 leagues to provide a team which will not be in the top 11 of the pairwise... just unlikely.
              BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

              Jerseys I would like to have:
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              Army Black Knight logo jersey


              NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer

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              • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                Priceless, Do you mind sharing how you are going about finding out who is "Already in"? It seems to me there are lots of variables. I suppose you have to figure on upsets in all 4 major conferences, and then the AHA bid, so it's a matter of, "Who can't fall lower that 11th in the PWR?" It seems a big job. Go for it!!!

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                • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                  We should do away with avoiding intra-conference matchups once and for all. Bracket integrity is where it's at.

                  Not to mention -- while a vocal minority of die-hards on USCHO might get excited about seeing new teams, it's the known rivalries that sell tickets. John Q Minnesota fan would rather see the Gophs play North Dakota than, say, UNH or UMass-Lowell.

                  Just like Jack BC fan would rather see BU than Western Michigan.

                  It sells tickets. It takes away one more consideration that threatens bracket integrity. Just do it. Kill the no-intra-conference restriction. Kill it with fire.
                  1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2012(!)

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                  • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                    Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                    Priceless, Do you mind sharing how you are going about finding out who is "Already in"? It seems to me there are lots of variables. I suppose you have to figure on upsets in all 4 major conferences, and then the AHA bid, so it's a matter of, "Who can't fall lower that 11th in the PWR?" It seems a big job. Go for it!!!
                    I had something at one point which tried to find the odds but it had errors in the code in places... its not infeasible... its just a pain in the arse.
                    BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

                    Jerseys I would like to have:
                    Skating Friar Jersey
                    AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
                    UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
                    Army Black Knight logo jersey


                    NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer

                    Comment


                    • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                      Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                      Priceless, Do you mind sharing how you are going about finding out who is "Already in"? It seems to me there are lots of variables. I suppose you have to figure on upsets in all 4 major conferences, and then the AHA bid, so it's a matter of, "Who can't fall lower that 11th in the PWR?" It seems a big job. Go for it!!!
                      There are always a few goofy results from conference tournaments that can impact the COp component in unexpected ways. So I do put a caveat in that such a scenario to get a team out COULD exist in theory. That's also why I am wary about using a website like playoffstatus.com which has no correlation at all to the pairwise. As I recall, Jim Dahl did the numbers last year and there were almost 900,000,000 scenarios. I'm not running through that many

                      Originally posted by Patman View Post
                      I had something at one point which tried to find the odds but it had errors in the code in places... its not infeasible... its just a pain in the arse.
                      That's what Jim did. He may do it and post results at the SiouxSports site.

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                      • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                        Originally posted by Priceless View Post
                        There are always a few goofy results from conference tournaments that can impact the COp component in unexpected ways. So I do put a caveat in that such a scenario to get a team out COULD exist in theory. That's also why I am wary about using a website like playoffstatus.com which has no correlation at all to the pairwise. As I recall, Jim Dahl did the numbers last year and there were almost 900,000,000 scenarios. I'm not running through that many
                        It's a little worse than that... with all the best of 3 series remaining, at this point it's still something like 1*10^23 possible outcomes. So, it's possible to do pretty definitive potential outcomes for the weekend (I should have those in the next day or two), but only rough probabilities for the whole thing.
                        Last edited by JimDahl; 03-05-2012, 08:14 AM.

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                        • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                          Originally posted by Priceless View Post
                          In 2003 the WCHA had #2, #3, #10, #13 and #14. Cornell was the overall #1 and drew a WCHA team rather than one of the two autobids. CC and Minnesota played Wayne State and Mercyhurst while New Hampshire and Cornell played St. Cloud and Mankato. In fact, the committee had #1 Cornell play #13 Mankato. So I doubt the committee will allow any conference matchups if they can at all be avoided, 5 teams or not.
                          I remember that year, Priceless. And, I agree, since the precedent has been set, that is probably how it would go.

                          However, and this is in the realm of "how can we get a better system?" rather than, "what is the bracket going to be?", it is my strong opinion that it was wrong then, and it would be wrong now, again, to do it like that. It seems like a basketball system being imposed on hockey, when the 2 tournaments are very different. In basketball, not so much difference between #16 seeds. Hockey - huge difference between #4s. And, this year, if things hold as they are now, BC is a prohibitive #1 overall.

                          Simply put, the PWR is not a definite enough tool, and the teams are too close, to say "This is the #8 team." "This is the #9 team."

                          Anyway, sorry for the rant. I know there are problems with trying something else. I would favor using PWR to choose the field, and giving the committee more flexibility in doing the bracket. But, then, there would be many complaints of back-room dealings, and quid pro quos, from many fans who wouldn't like the result.

                          Oh, well...

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                          • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                            I'm hoping for an analysis of who's in the Bottom Feeders bracket this year soon!

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                            • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                              Originally posted by JimDahl View Post
                              It's a little worse than that... with all the best of 3 series remaining, at this point it's still something like 1*10^23 possible outcomes. So, it's possible to do pretty definitive potential outcomes for the weekend (I should have those in the next day or two), but only rough probabilities for the whole thing.
                              Ouch. I don't think I can run through that many scenarios

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                              • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                                Is it conceivable that BU could pass BC by winning hockey East and be able to go to Worcestor instead of the Eagles because the way BU has been playing lately I think the committee should be able to take that into account and if we won hockey East I think the committee should consider it.

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