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  • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

    Originally posted by Numbers View Post
    That's what I was thinking, too, Patman. The best way for them to end up outside, would have been to not win last week, or this week. Or, to get just enough this week, with Amherst losing, to qualify for the HE playoffs, and then get swept. In other words:

    As it happened: Last 2 weeks, 1-3. (If they lose tonight.)
    As it could have happened: Last 2 weeks, 0-4.
    Or, as it could have happened, scenario 2: Last 2 weeks, 1-2-1, with Amherst losing out, and then NE goes 0-2 versus Bu or BC next week = 1-4-1 total for the last 3 weeks.

    I am thinking like this now: If NE loses, and falls to .4995, I am happy as a Gopher fan. But, if the Gophers win, then that raises NE's SoS, and maybe puts them back in. Back and forth, back and forth....
    I'm trying to remember who their beanpot first round was against... if it's bc, bc is going to win a lot in the next few weeks... that'll help pull them above water as well.
    BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

    Jerseys I would like to have:
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    NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer

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    • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

      Originally posted by Numbers View Post
      yhf,

      Could you clarify, please? Are you saying that you predict Yale will win ECAC playoff, and thus go to Bridgeport? Or, do you mean something more? Like, either Cornell or Union will be there anyway, because of something in the system that the rest of us are overlooking?

      Thanks.
      With complete bias, I predict that Yale will be in Bridgeport and there is of course only one way for that to happen (they win ECAC auto-bid). I had no confidence that this was possible 3 weeks ago. However since then we have changed goalies and completely altered the pairing on our top three lines. This has results in us going 4-0-1 over that time, and more importantly playing like the team that has won the ECAC Championship 2 of the last 3 years. It won't be easy, but like UConn in college hoops, I wouldn't count them out just yet.
      -------------
      Yale University 2013 National Champs

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      • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

        The new TUC line:


        Mass-Amherst 0.5054
        Air Force 0.5046
        New Hampshire 0.5039
        NorthEastern 0.5022
        ---
        NE-Omaha 0.4996
        RIT 0.4985
        Yale 0.4976
        Niagara 0.4973



        Based on this, is it possible that the AHA could get two teams in the tournament this year if RIT and Air Force make it to the Conference Championship game?

        Comment


        • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

          Originally posted by UNHHurstFan View Post
          Based on this, is it possible that the AHA could get two teams in the tournament this year if RIT and Air Force make it to the Conference Championship game?
          Only if one of the two wins the AHA Championship for the auto-bid and the other has a good enough PWR record to be in the top 15.

          TUC != NCAA Tournament bid.



          To simplify the answer: No.
          http://siouxsports.com/hockey/rankings/pwr/
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          • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

            Originally posted by UNHHurstFan View Post
            The new TUC line:


            Mass-Amherst 0.5054
            Air Force 0.5046
            New Hampshire 0.5039
            NorthEastern 0.5022
            ---
            NE-Omaha 0.4996
            RIT 0.4985
            Yale 0.4976
            Niagara 0.4973



            Based on this, is it possible that the AHA could get two teams in the tournament this year if RIT and Air Force make it to the Conference Championship game?
            Monolithically unlikely I'd think
            BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

            Jerseys I would like to have:
            Skating Friar Jersey
            AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
            UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
            Army Black Knight logo jersey


            NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer

            Comment


            • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

              Originally posted by Patman View Post
              I'm trying to remember who their beanpot first round was against... if it's bc, bc is going to win a lot in the next few weeks... that'll help pull them above water as well.
              It was BC, Patman. But, that's not as obvious a result as it looks. BC has a great record already, so a few extra wins won't raise their win% that much. Particularly since whoever BC beats will have a lower win% as a result, and so it almost balances out, right?

              I think that NE' non-conference schedule is more important for this calculation. That would be Michigan, 2 with Notre Dame, Princeton, Minnesota, and Harvard. Also, I understand that the Beanpot BC game is like an extra free bee, because it's non-conference. I would guess the 2 NoDame games on their schedule mean that NoDame's results may have the greatest effect, particularly if they balance strongly toward wins or losses. For example, if NoDame loses 2 tonight and tomorrow against OSU, or splits and then is swept next weekend, it lowers their win% by .027. 21% of that is about .006, and that counts for about 2/34 of NE's sched, so 1/17 of that makes, in the end, a decrease in NE's RPI of about .0003 or .0004. And, all those other teams have the ability to make about 1/2 that much difference. It is going to go up and down quite a bit.

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              • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                Originally posted by UNHHurstFan View Post
                The new TUC line:


                Mass-Amherst 0.5054
                Air Force 0.5046
                New Hampshire 0.5039
                NorthEastern 0.5022
                ---
                NE-Omaha 0.4996
                RIT 0.4985
                Yale 0.4976
                Niagara 0.4973



                Based on this, is it possible that the AHA could get two teams in the tournament this year if RIT and Air Force make it to the Conference Championship game?
                That's the TUC line. Not even close to the bubble for the NCAA. The AHA will only get the autobid this year.

                Comment


                • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                  No matter what happens in Anchorage


                  1 Boston Coll (HE)
                  2 Michigan (CC)
                  3 Mass-Lowell (HE)
                  4 Minn-Duluth (WC)
                  5 Ferris State (CC)
                  6 Boston Univ (HE)
                  7 Minnesota (WC)
                  8 Union (EC)
                  9 Miami (CC)
                  10 Maine (HE)
                  11 Denver U (WC)
                  12 Mich State (CC)
                  13 North Dakota (WC)
                  14 Northern Mich (CC)
                  15 Cornell (EC)
                  ---
                  16 Merrimack (HE)

                  Duluth loses 1st place because Minnesota rallied to defeat Wisconsin and flipped the comparison by .0006 RPI (.0004 if AA wins) and they lose ties with Michigan and Lowell.


                  Code:
                  Bridgeport	Worcester	St. Paul	Green Bay
                  Lowell		Boston C	Michigan	Duluth
                  Boston U	Union		Minnesota	Ferris St
                  Mich St		Maine		Miami		Denver
                  No Dakota	AHA Champ	Cornell		No Mich

                  Comment


                  • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                    Originally posted by Priceless View Post
                    No matter what happens in Anchorage


                    1 Boston Coll (HE)
                    2 Michigan (CC)
                    3 Mass-Lowell (HE)
                    4 Minn-Duluth (WC)
                    5 Ferris State (CC)
                    6 Boston Univ (HE)
                    7 Minnesota (WC)
                    8 Union (EC)
                    9 Miami (CC)
                    10 Maine (HE)
                    11 Denver U (WC)
                    12 Mich State (CC)
                    13 North Dakota (WC)
                    14 Northern Mich (CC)
                    15 Cornell (EC)
                    ---
                    16 Merrimack (HE)

                    Duluth loses 1st place because Minnesota rallied to defeat Wisconsin and flipped the comparison by .0006 RPI (.0004 if AA wins) and they lose ties with Michigan and Lowell.


                    Code:
                    Bridgeport	Worcester	St. Paul	Green Bay
                    Lowell		Boston C	Michigan	Duluth
                    Boston U	Union		Minnesota	Ferris St
                    Mich St		Maine		Miami		Denver
                    No Dakota	AHA Champ	Cornell		No Mich
                    Agree, totally, Priceless. There is another option, in which the committee decides that Mich/UML/UMD are all the same, and then sends UMD to St Paul anyway, but it gets really complicated and convoluted by the time it works out. EDIT:: That option basically ends up with just the Mich/Corn game and the UMD/No Mich game swapping places.

                    I have looked at the PWR a little in its current state. UMD has lots of downside left. That's because it is still really out of position in the PWR compared to RPI. What is propping them up right now is a very good TUC record, and we know that can be vulnerable. Not to their own play, because they have only 1 more potential loss to a TUC on their sched, but rather to opponents falling off the TUC cliff.
                    Last edited by Numbers; 03-03-2012, 11:02 PM.

                    Comment


                    • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                      And, for all who are interested, there is one big thing to watch for: BC, UML and BU all can have their TUC record changed alot by New Hampshire and Mass-Amherst falling off the TUC cliff. That could end up affecting lots of compares.

                      Comment


                      • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                        Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                        And, for all who are interested, there is one big thing to watch for: BC, UML and BU all can have their TUC record changed alot by New Hampshire and Mass-Amherst falling off the TUC cliff. That could end up affecting lots of compares.
                        Yeah... I'd rather that UMass had kept its lead against Merrimack... they weren't going to fall out at that point.
                        BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

                        Jerseys I would like to have:
                        Skating Friar Jersey
                        AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
                        UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
                        Army Black Knight logo jersey


                        NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer

                        Comment


                        • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                          Originally posted by Biddco View Post
                          False. We beat the team with a deadly power play and the number one overall seed.
                          And beat us you did(Union).

                          Hopefully, if we make it in this year, we might progress to actually scoring a goal...

                          At least we got trampled by the eventual National Champions.....

                          Keith.
                          Keith Reynolds
                          Union College
                          Class of 1992
                          B.A. in Economics/Mathematics

                          University of Nevada - Las Vegas
                          Class of 2001
                          M.S. in Sports and Leisure Management

                          "I went to Union before it sucked...."

                          Comment


                          • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                            Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                            And, the NCAA would never do this, but I would take all the teams above whatever cutoff you want, and then use KRACH as a measuring stick, and I would ask the Math guys at Cornell to work out the most fair compare.
                            I'm sure the folks over at Clarkson and RPI would be offended by this decision...

                            Keith.
                            Keith Reynolds
                            Union College
                            Class of 1992
                            B.A. in Economics/Mathematics

                            University of Nevada - Las Vegas
                            Class of 2001
                            M.S. in Sports and Leisure Management

                            "I went to Union before it sucked...."

                            Comment


                            • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                              Originally posted by Patman View Post
                              Yeah... I'd rather that UMass had kept its lead against Merrimack... they weren't going to fall out at that point.
                              Amherst took 2 against BC this year already. I doubt they'll win their quarterfinal series, but they might be able to push it to 3. However, the two wins were at the Mullins and not at Conte.

                              Comment


                              • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                                Originally posted by bottomdweller View Post
                                Amherst took 2 against BC this year already. I doubt they'll win their quarterfinal series, but they might be able to push it to 3. However, the two wins were at the Mullins and not at Conte.
                                I'd be overjoyed if UMass took out BC... I haven't looked at the math to see if 1 of 3 will do it but it'd be helpful to keep them in. As it is, NU will stay in so that's a good thing.
                                BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

                                Jerseys I would like to have:
                                Skating Friar Jersey
                                AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
                                UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
                                Army Black Knight logo jersey


                                NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer

                                Comment

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