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Fighting Sioux 23
03-10-2012, 11:37 PM
Correct, but then someone above them would fall from the top 15. I guess it's a matter of semantics - that is, what you meant. Also, I think it may be true for those schools that winning their conference championship might be their only way in.

I was speaking in terms of the top 15 when the season ends, not necessarily the current top 15 (although it could be the identical set of teams).

I don't believe that any of those 10 schools can make it in without winning their conference tournament.

Numbers
03-10-2012, 11:41 PM
So if Ferris hangs on tomorrow I'll have to root for Michigan for a third straight game? Boooooooooooo

I'm guessing I'd also have to become a Ferris or Miami fan for the consolation too?

First things first, Spartan. Be a Maine fan tomorrow. If they win, you are safe from Merrimack and Northern Michigan. Then, it's just a matter of no party crashers, and you're good.

irishfan85
03-10-2012, 11:46 PM
How safe is Maine if they lose tomorrow??

Spartanforlife4
03-10-2012, 11:50 PM
First things first, Spartan. Be a Maine fan tomorrow. If they win, you are safe from Merrimack and Northern Michigan. Then, it's just a matter of no party crashers, and you're good.

Ok, so #1 Go Black Bears!

#2: How is Northern still in it? What could possibly be the strange combination of comparisons that they need to win to move them into the top 15?

Priceless
03-10-2012, 11:52 PM
With Priceless' permission, I am going to go through all this again, now that the night's results are in: First, current PWR. I don't really care what the bracket would look like, so we will just list the PWR. (By the way, anyone can access it here, or on other sites as well.)

You hardly need my permission...you've really developed quite a knack for this!

The lowest I can get Maine if they lose tomorrow is 15th. Even with a loss tomorrow, the Black Bears easily win comparisons vs the four CCHA teams that would be behind them (MSU, NMU, ND, OSU) So, barring one of those conference winners FS23 listed, Maine is in the tournament. In fact, it looks like the field is down to the 15 teams that are currently in the top 15, plus Merrimack and NMU jockeying for position with Western Michigan. As long as there are no conference upsets, those three teams constitute the bubble. Everyone else appears to be in.

Fighting Sioux 23
03-10-2012, 11:55 PM
How safe is Maine if they lose tomorrow??

If Maine loses tomorrow, they would need to have top teams win their conference tournaments. Taking a quick look, it appears that they would probably lose the Cornell and DU comparisons (assuming DU wins), and could lose the Merrimack and Western Michigan comparisons depending on what those schools do next weekend. If they were to lose all 4 of those comparisons, that would drop them to 16 PWR comparisons won, which would place them in a tie for 15th (again, this is a static view of the field, assuming the TUC line stays where it currently is as far as teams that are TUCs) with Michigan State. The RPI would be close, but the Black Bears would likely take the tiebreaker with State. Sitting at #15 would require no upsets in the conference tournaments to make the NCAA Tournament.

Numbers
03-10-2012, 11:58 PM
Ok, so #1 Go Black Bears!

#2: How is Northern still in it? What could possibly be the strange combination of comparisons that they need to win to move them into the top 15?

To get Northern in simply requires Merrimack losing tomorrow and Western losing twice at the Joe. Or, maybe, losing to Miami and then beating Bowling Green. Or, I think losing and then tying on the part of Western will do it. WMU has to drop in RPI by .0036 compared to NoMich. That's how it goes. Oh, and then no tourney upsets.

Patman
03-11-2012, 12:01 AM
PWR and RPI being where it is, I'd have a hard time believing there won't be howls about BC not playing Air Force... especially since CCHA has 5.... Michigan-WMU is more likely.

Spartanforlife4
03-11-2012, 12:02 AM
To get Northern in simply requires Merrimack losing tomorrow and Western losing twice at the Joe. Or, maybe, losing to Miami and then beating Bowling Green. Or, I think losing and then tying on the part of Western will do it. WMU has to drop in RPI by .0036 compared to NoMich. That's how it goes. Oh, and then no tourney upsets.

That would also allow State to get in, correct? If so, let it happen.

Numbers
03-11-2012, 12:04 AM
Priceless and FS23,

I agree with you fellows, that, barring no major upsets, the bubble is:
Merrimack/Western Michigan/Northern Michigan/ Michigan State if you want to extend that far. I think I could find a way to get Merrimack and Western both in at MSU's expense, but it may require them each winning their conf tourney.

The real question, then, becomes:

If there are lots of upsets, who is at risk?

I mean, suppose the cut line backs all the way to 11. (St Cloud, Western, Harvard, Merrimack, and someone from AHA being autobids). Then, who is at risk?

Real quick exam seems to suggest NoDak and above are safe. Do you fellows get something different?

Fighting Sioux 23
03-11-2012, 12:12 AM
Priceless and FS23,

I agree with you fellows, that, barring no major upsets, the bubble is:
Merrimack/Western Michigan/Northern Michigan/ Michigan State if you want to extend that far. I think I could find a way to get Merrimack and Western both in at MSU's expense, but it may require them each winning their conf tourney.

The real question, then, becomes:

If there are lots of upsets, who is at risk?

I mean, suppose the cut line backs all the way to 11. (St Cloud, Western, Harvard, Merrimack, and someone from AHA being autobids). Then, who is at risk?

Real quick exam seems to suggest NoDak and above are safe. Do you fellows get something different?

Just from a quick look, I would say Union (#10) and above should be safe. Maine (#11), Denver (t#12), and Cornell (t#12) all have some work left to do to put themselves in safe position. The picture should clear up quite a bit after tomorrow, especially if Ferris, Maine, BU, and Lowell all win. (which would cut the possible conference upsets to just the ECAC and WCHA).

J.D.
03-11-2012, 01:16 AM
I came up with:

Worcester:

1. BC (1)
2. BU (7)
3. North Dakota (9)
4. Western Michigan (15)

GB:

1. UMD (3)
2. UML (6)
3. Denver (12)
4. Michigan State (14)

St. Paul:

1. Michigan (2)
2. Minnesota (8)
3. Union (10)
4. Atlantic Hockey (16)

Bridgeport:

1. Ferris State (4)
2. Miami (5)
3. Maine (11)
4. Cornell (13)

claver2010
03-11-2012, 08:19 AM
JD, why didn't you give BC the atlantic hockey winner?

And also with a loss will UNH drop out of TUC?

Numbers
03-11-2012, 08:36 AM
JD, why didn't you give BC the atlantic hockey winner?

And also with a loss will UNH drop out of TUC?

In this scenario, CCHA has 2 #1s and 2 #4s. Since the committee avoids first round intraconference matchups, Michigan and Ferris have to face the AHA winner and Cornell.

With a loss, UNH would have RPI of .5001. Assuming BU defeats UNH tonight, if BU then loses next Friday, that (UNH RPI) falls below the cut-line. And, it would make a little difference in a few compares for Lowell and BU. And, also would make a difference in the BC/UMD compare.

claver2010
03-11-2012, 08:48 AM
In this scenario, CCHA has 2 #1s and 2 #4s. Since the committee avoids first round intraconference matchups, Michigan and Ferris have to face the AHA winner and Cornell.

With a loss, UNH would have RPI of .5001. As it happens, if BU loses next Friday, that falls below the cut-line. And, it would make a little difference in a few compares for Lowell and BU. And, also would make a difference in the BC/UMD compare.

Thanks should've seen that, didn't have the morning coffee yet

Chris_NH
03-11-2012, 08:49 AM
I came up with:

Worcester:

1. BC (1)
2. BU (7)
3. North Dakota (9)
4. Western Michigan (15)



That's a magnificent-looking bracket, if it holds. I will absolutely drive an hour south over two days to watch those three games.

Priceless
03-11-2012, 01:08 PM
The script for tonight's Game Threes:

20120309 BG 0 FS 1 nc
20120309 By 0 RT 1 nc
20120309 Ct 0 AF 1 nc
20120309 Pv 0 ML 1 nc
20120309 HC 0 Mh 1 nc
20120309 Mr 0 Me 1 nc
20120309 NH 0 BU 1 nc
20120309 Qn 0 Cg 1 nc
20120309 Wi 0 DU 1 nc
20120309 Ya 0 Ha 1 nc

Most sites should have their YATC pages up tonight or tomorrow AM so you'll be able to use those instead of scripts :p

Fighting Sioux 23
03-11-2012, 01:27 PM
The script for tonight's Game Threes:

20120309 BG 0 FS 1 nc
20120309 By 0 RT 1 nc
20120309 Ct 0 AF 1 nc
20120309 Da 0 Cr 1 nc
20120309 HC 0 Mh 1 nc
20120309 Mr 0 Me 1 nc
20120309 NH 0 BU 1 nc
20120309 Qn 0 Cg 1 nc
20120309 Wi 0 DU 1 nc
20120309 Ya 0 Ha 1 nc

Most sites should have their YATC pages up tonight or tomorrow AM so you'll be able to use those instead of scripts :p

Providence and Lowell are also playing this evening.

Numbers
03-11-2012, 01:32 PM
The script for tonight's Game Threes:

20120309 BG 0 FS 1 nc
20120309 By 0 RT 1 nc
20120309 Ct 0 AF 1 nc
20120309 Da 0 Cr 1 nc
20120309 HC 0 Mh 1 nc
20120309 Mr 0 Me 1 nc
20120309 NH 0 BU 1 nc
20120309 Qn 0 Cg 1 nc
20120309 Wi 0 DU 1 nc
20120309 Ya 0 Ha 1 nc

Most sites should have their YATC pages up tonight or tomorrow AM so you'll be able to use those instead of scripts :p

And, Dartmouth and Cornell are not playing tonight.

Wol4ine
03-11-2012, 03:54 PM
This was posted way back in Jan.;

Latest USCHO pairwise:

BU, UM-D, OSU, ND
Mich, Merrimack, NMU, Ferris
BC, UML, Cornell, Denver
Minn, MSU, Miami, AHA

NE: 1. BU 2. FSU 3. BC 4. AHA
East: 1. ND 2. Merrimack 3. Cornell 4. MSU
Midwest: 1. Duluth 2. NMU 3. UML 4. Miami
West: 1. OSU 2. Mich 3.Denver 4.Minn



Boy would i love to see the buckeyes get that draw!


NMU has a good bracket for ability to advance, but wow does tOSU have it's ticket pre-punched to the Frozen Four with this setup.

I'm sorry, but that's just funny.