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Priceless
03-10-2012, 10:02 AM
The good news for anyone on the bubble (or who could get there with losses) is that the CCHA has a four team logjam from 14-18. #14 Michigan State was shutout 6-0 last night and could be done tonight. #18 Notre Dame is also facing elimination at the hands of Michigan. #16 Northern Michigan is already done. #15 Western Michigan is the only favorite to continue after tonight. #17 Merrimack can also be done tonight. That would mean teams that are already in position for tournament bids will lock them up even with losses. Denver, Lowell and BU could be eliminated from the conference playoffs but clinch a berth anyway because no one else can catch them. It could very well be that the field we see now is the field we get for the NCAA.

5mn_Major
03-10-2012, 10:10 AM
It appears that DU's making it to the tourney run through UMD and UND through MN. If doesn't get to that point, they'll probably be competing with themselves on the bubble.

Numbers
03-10-2012, 01:01 PM
It appears that DU's making it to the tourney run through UMD and UND through MN. If doesn't get to that point, they'll probably be competing with themselves on the bubble.

Not sure, 5min. See Priceless's comments above. I think that if Denver wins the next 2 against Wisconsin they will be almost safe, pending major conference tournament upsets. Wisconsin will remain a TUC, so winning 2 against them will raise DU's RPI, and improve their TUC record. They can only lose once at the F5, because there is no consolation game.

Numbers
03-10-2012, 01:19 PM
To add to Priceless's comments above:

Suppose DU, BU and Lowell were to lose their next game.

Who does that leave to take auto-bids? Those who would not be in contention for an at-large?

AHA - Only one team in anyway.

ECAC - Most likely Yale or Colgate at this point, but not both.

HE - Providence and New Hampshire (Or, Merrimack if they turn it around fast.)

CCHA - Bowling Green if they beat Ferris. Notre Dame or Lake Superior if they come back to win their present series.

WCHA - Wisconsin, CC/MTU winner, SCSU/UNO winner.

Now looking at all of that, I would say that:
It's well possible that ECAC would end up with 3 teams.
Highly unlikely that we get an upset winner in HE. Can you see either of those 2 beating both Maine and BC?
CCHA - BG won't happen. But, it would be a great story if it did. NoDame, LSSU pretty unlikely. The best chance there is WMU, in my opinion.
WCHA - These guys would have to win 3 games. Hard to see them beating the gauntlet of UND, UMD, Minn.

So, we are really looking at 14 being the likely cutoff (13 if WMU wins out. Well, let me clarify that. WMU likely would rise higher, and 14 would still be cutoff, but WMU would take one of those spots.).

So, who would fill the field:

AHA - 1
ECAC - Union, Cornell, plus Yale/Colgate
HE - BC, Maine as we are looking now.
CCHA - Michigan, Miami
WCHA - Minn, UMD, UND.

That leaves 5 more spots. So, filling in from teams who could be out of their conf tourney soon:

Ferris State.
Lowell
BU
DU
Western, or Northern, or Michigan State, Notre Dame or Lake.

Take your pick on the end of that. Obviously, WMU and Lake won't both be in contention. MSU and NoDame have a tough road - winning 2 on the road.

It's just hard to see FSU or Lowell out under any circumstances. BU or DU out only with really bad luck - meaning CC wins the WCHA, or UNH wins HE, or MSU or NoDame start a big run....

Hope that helps.

Priceless
03-10-2012, 01:44 PM
Hope that helps.

Excellent job! Always nice to see someone new understand the pairwise. Maybe you can educate a few media members!

Priceless
03-10-2012, 02:22 PM
I'm off to Alfond so I won't be updating until late tonight. Taking the laptop so I might be able to tweet...follow me on Twitter @blackbear93
If there are any questions, I'm sure Numbers can answer them...he seems to have gotten this whole pairwise thing down pretty quickly. Scooby's right: It's simple math!

Spartanforlife4
03-10-2012, 08:35 PM
I'll be following this thread nervously for the next week.

5mn_Major
03-10-2012, 10:03 PM
Not sure, 5min. See Priceless's comments above. I think that if Denver wins the next 2 against Wisconsin they will be almost safe, pending major conference tournament upsets. Wisconsin will remain a TUC, so winning 2 against them will raise DU's RPI, and improve their TUC record. They can only lose once at the F5, because there is no consolation game.

Should be close. That would mean that DU loses the game to WI that they already did. In that scenario, they then win two against WI...which should result in a blow to WI PWR. But then DU losing to UMD...might still make it tough...esp if you consider it to be competing with UND.

But then again...I'm not smart enough to figure all this out.

irishfan85
03-10-2012, 10:51 PM
Priceless,
What are Maine's chances of making it in if they lose tomorrow night to MC?

Numbers
03-10-2012, 11:06 PM
With Priceless' permission, I am going to go through all this again, now that the night's results are in: First, current PWR. I don't really care what the bracket would look like, so we will just list the PWR. (By the way, anyone can access it here, or on other sites as well.)

1-BC; 2-Mich; 3-UMD; 4-Ferris
5-Miami; 6-Lowell; 7-BU; 8-Minn
9-UND; 10-Union; 11-Maine; 12-Denver
13-Cornell; 14-Mich State; 15-Western Mich;
16-Merrimack; 17-No Mich; 18-No Dame; 19-Colo Coll

Of these , the following have games tomorrow night:
Ferris v Bowling Green; Lowell v Providence; BU v New Hampshire
Maine v Merrimack; Denver v Wisconsin

So, what are everyone's chances?
BC -Almost guaranteed the overall #1
Mich - Most likely a #1 or a high #2, depending on results next weekend.
UMD - Will end up a #1 or a #2, depending on next weekend
Ferris and Miami - I haven't tried, but it looks hard to get them out right now.
Lowell and BU - Same. There is not enough upward mobility left on the bubble for them to fall very far.
Minnesota - In. Could end up as high as #3 overall, if they win the Broadmoor next weekend.
No Dakota - Almost certainly in. And, this is why. They would probably have to lose 5 more comparisons to fall out of the field. The DU compare is a possibility. It is hard to create a scenario in which they lose both the Union and Cornell compares. Same with Maine and Merrimack. So, almost certainly in.
Union and Cornell - One win next week and they are in. Might be in without that.
Maine - Could lose several compares if they lose to Merrimack tomorrow night. Win, and they are in. Lose, and it's a big ??
Denver - If they beat Wisco tomorrow, they are all but in. I really think they are in, but I don't have time right now to run all the possibilities. Losing opens the door to losing comparisons with WestMich, Cornell, and Merrimack, and then being just on the wrong side of the bubble.
Merrimack - Needs a win tomorrow, and then might still have work to do.
Western Mich - Needs at least a win at the Joe
Mich State, and No Mich - Need to pull for all favorites in HE, ECAC and WCHA to win. And, for Merrimack and Western specifically to lose.
Everyone else needs to win their conference tourney. So, LSSU, Notre Dame, Colo Coll are out.

Hope this helps. Anyone with other thoughts, please add them.

Numbers.

IronRangeHockey
03-10-2012, 11:09 PM
With Priceless' permission, I am going to go through all this again, now that the night's results are in: First, current PWR. I don't really care what the bracket would look like, so we will just list the PWR. (By the way, anyone can access it here, or on other sites as well.)

1-BC; 2-Mich; 3-UMD; 4-Ferris
5-Miami; 6-Lowell; 7-BU; 8-Minn
9-UND; 10-Union; 11-Maine; 12-Denver
13-Cornell; 14-Mich State; 15-Western Mich;
16-Merrimack; 17-No Mich; 18-No Dame; 19-Colo Coll

Of these , the following have games tomorrow night:
Ferris v Bowling Green; Lowell v Providence; BU v New Hampshire
Maine v Merrimack; Denver v Wisconsin; Colo Coll v Mich Tech

So, what are everyone's chances?
BC -Almost guaranteed the overall #1
Mich - Most likely a #1 or a high #2, depending on results next weekend.
UMD - Will end up a #1 or a #2, depending on next weekend
Ferris and Miami - I haven't tried, but it looks hard to get them out right now.
Lowell and BU - Same. There is not enough upward mobility left on the bubble for them to fall very far.
Minnesota - In. Could end up as high as #3 overall, if they win the MacNaughton next weekend.
No Dakota - Almost certainly in. And, this is why. They would probably have to lose 5 more comparisons to fall out of the field. The DU compare is a possibility. It is hard to create a scenario in which they lose both the Union and Cornell compares. Same with Maine and Merrimack. So, almost certainly in.
Union and Cornell - One win next week and they are in. Might be in without that.
Maine - Could lose several compares if they lose to Merrimack tomorrow night. Win, and they are in. Lose, and it's a big ??
Denver - If they beat Wisco tomorrow, they are all but in. I really think they are in, but I don't have time right now to run all the possibilities. Losing opens the door to losing comparisons with WestMich, Cornell, and Merrimack, and then being just on the wrong side of the bubble.
Merrimack - Needs a win tomorrow, and then might still have work to do.
Western Mich - Needs at least a win at the Joe
Mich State, and No Mich - Need to pull for all favorites in HE, ECAC and WCHA to win. And, for Merrimack and Western specifically to lose.
Everyone else needs to win their conference tourney. So, LSSU, Notre Dame, Colo Coll are out.

Hope this helps. Anyone with other thoughts, please add them.

Numbers.

Gophers won the MacNaughton, I think you meant to write the Broadmoor trophy

Numbers
03-10-2012, 11:14 PM
Priceless,
What are Maine's chances of making it in if they lose tomorrow night to MC?

I'm not Priceless, but what I get is that, to be out of the field, one of the following needs to happen:

1)3 of the 4 major conferences would need to have upset winners.

2)Denver wins tomorrow night, and wins one game at the X; Cornell and Union at least split; and 2 of the 4 major conferences have upset winners.

The reason for all this is that even with a loss tomorrow, the compare with Merrimack doesn't quite flip yet. And, Merrimack splitting at the HE tourney doesn't turn it either.

So, Maine is in a pretty solid position.

Numbers
03-10-2012, 11:15 PM
Gophers won the MacNaughton, I think you meant to write the Broadmoor trophy

Thank you. I shall not change that - because I don't want to be guilty of hiding my errors.

:)

Spartanforlife4
03-10-2012, 11:19 PM
So if Ferris hangs on tomorrow I'll have to root for Michigan for a third straight game? Boooooooooooo

I'm guessing I'd also have to become a Ferris or Miami fan for the consolation too?

Fighting Sioux 23
03-10-2012, 11:21 PM
I'm not Priceless, but what I get is that, to be out of the field, 3 of the 4 major conferences would need to have upset winners. So, I would call that pretty good.

Spoilers to the party?

CCHA: Bowling Green
ECAC: Harvard, Yale, Quinnipiac, Colgate
Hockey East: New Hampshire, Providence
WCHA: Michigan Tech, Wisconsin, SCSU

I believe those are the only teams that can still win their conference tournament that would knock out a top 15 team in the Pairwise.

Fighting Sioux 23
03-10-2012, 11:22 PM
Thank you. I shall not change that - because I don't want to be guilty of hiding my errors.

:)

You could always edit and note your reason for editing. ;)

Priceless
03-10-2012, 11:27 PM
1 Boston Coll (HE) 30 0.5752
2 Michigan (CC) 29 0.5637
3 Minn-Duluth (WC) 28 0.5523
4 Ferris State (CC) 27 0.5539
5 Miami (CC) 25 0.5514
6 Mass-Lowell (HE) 25 0.5485
7 Boston Univ (HE) 24 0.5482
8 Minnesota (WC) 23 0.5520
9 North Dakota (WC) 22 0.5460
10 Union (EC) 21 0.5501
11 Maine (HE) 20 0.5426
12 Denver U (WC) 19 0.5402
13 Cornell (EC) 19 0.5394
14 Mich State (CC) 16 0.5364
15 Western Mich (CC) 16 0.5351
---
16 Merrimack (HE) 16 0.5335
17 Northern Mich (CC) 14 0.5316



Bridgeport Worcester St. Paul Green Bay
Minn-Duluth Boston C Michigan Ferris St
Lowell Boston U Minnesota Miami
Union No Dakota Maine Denver
Mich St W Mich AHA Champ Cornell


Niagara 0.5053
Air Force 0.5035
Bemidji State* 0.5029
New Hampshire 0.5028
---
Mass-Amherst* 0.4982
RIT 0.4980
Yale 0.4976
Michigan Tech 0.4963

Numbers
03-10-2012, 11:28 PM
Spoilers to the party?

CCHA: Bowling Green
ECAC: Harvard, Yale, Quinnipiac, Colgate
Hockey East: New Hampshire, Providence
WCHA: Michigan Tech, Wisconsin, SCSU

I believe those are the only teams that can still win their conference tournament that would knock out a top 15 team in the Pairwise.

I agree, except that since MSU, West Mich, and Merrimack are all tied at #14, either Western Michigan or Merrimack would have to count in your list as well, FS23.

Fighting Sioux 23
03-10-2012, 11:30 PM
I agree, except that since MSU, West Mich, and Merrimack are all tied at #14, either Western Michigan or Merrimack would have to count in your list as well, FS23.

I'm pretty sure they would crack the top 15 if they were to win their conference tournament.

Numbers
03-10-2012, 11:34 PM
I'm pretty sure they would crack the top 15 if they were to win their conference tournament.

Correct, but then someone above them would fall from the top 15. I guess it's a matter of semantics - that is, what you meant. Also, I think it may be true for those schools that winning their conference championship might be their only way in.