Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Collapse
This topic is closed.
X
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

    Also, I am sorry for the storm my post created with Ferris vs Minnesota. As I mentioned, I was thinking 'Grand Rapids" as I figured, not Green Bay. So, the wolverines fly anyway, go to St Paul. I can understand why everyone thinks that.

    What I am not clear on is why the consensus here is Minn v Mich State and Union v Maine, when the current PWR would have Minn v Maine and Union v MSU? I get it about flying. I get it that supposedly MSU fans would go to St Paul. But, I also get it that Minnesota v Maine and the X is a rematch of a nice game played a few years ago in the same location (a game that didn't mean much....). And, so, I am not sure why people are so quick to want to change that game out...

    Thanks.

    Comment


    • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

      Last year was bizarre; the odds must be pretty darn low of a team having to run through four teams from the same conference in a sixteen team field, particularly since both CC and UMD had to pull upsets just to face Michigan (with UMD having to pull multiple upsets as a #3 seed advancing to the title game).

      Comment


      • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

        Originally posted by Bakunin View Post
        Last year was bizarre; the odds must be pretty darn low of a team having to run through four teams from the same conference in a sixteen team field, particularly since both CC and UMD had to pull upsets just to face Michigan (with UMD having to pull multiple upsets as a #3 seed advancing to the title game).
        Agreed. Michigan State beat 3 Hockey East teams (and Notre Dame, a future Hockey East Team) in 2007 en route to the title. That's about the closest I can find to what Michigan did last year.
        North Dakota
        National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

        Comment


        • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

          Originally posted by Numbers View Post
          What I am not clear on is why the consensus here is Minn v Mich State and Union v Maine, when the current PWR would have Minn v Maine and Union v MSU? I get it about flying. I get it that supposedly MSU fans would go to St Paul. But, I also get it that Minnesota v Maine and the X is a rematch of a nice game played a few years ago in the same location (a game that didn't mean much....).
          7. Union
          8. Minnesota
          9. Maine
          10. Michigan State

          In an ideal tournament, yes, Union would play MSU and Minnesota would play Maine. We'll never have an ideal tournament. I don't have much of an explanation for you other than putting Maine in Worcester with BC would be dynamite for attendance there.

          Comment


          • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

            Originally posted by gopheritall View Post
            I agree with #1 but #2 cannot be predicted.
            Figuring out the likelihood of there being no upsets should be pretty straightforward, assuming you have odds for each matchup that you're happy with. A pretty good estimate would be taking the krach ratios as odds of winning -- it doesn't take into account the changing quality of teams over the course of the season, but otherwise is a pretty good estimate.

            Once you have odds for each game, just multiply out the chain of likelihoods of all the favored teams winning. I don't have the right data in front of me right now, but a quick back of the envelope hints that it's going to be a REALLY small number.
            Last edited by JimDahl; 02-20-2012, 03:04 PM.

            Comment


            • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

              Originally posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post
              Agreed. Michigan State beat 3 Hockey East teams (and Notre Dame, a future Hockey East Team) in 2007 en route to the title. That's about the closest I can find to what Michigan did last year.
              In 2002 UM beat SCSU and Denver before falling to Minnesota in the semi's. In 2005 UM beat Wisconsin, then lost to CC. Had they won the regional, they would have faced Denver for a chance to play the UND vs Minnesota winner (UND) in the title game. Like I said, no one faces WCHA teams in the NCAA's more than Michigan.
              No man is entitled to the benefits of freedom if he is not vigilant in its preservation. - Douglas MacArthur

              The world is a dangerous place to live; not because of the people who are evil, but because of the people who don't do anything about it. - Albert Einstein

              I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them.- Thomas Jefferson

              Comment


              • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                Originally posted by Wol4ine View Post
                In 2002 UM beat SCSU and Denver before falling to Minnesota in the semi's. In 2005 UM beat Wisconsin, then lost to CC. Had they won the regional, they would have faced Denver for a chance to play the UND vs Minnesota winner (UND) in the title game. Like I said, no one faces WCHA teams in the NCAA's more than Michigan.
                I don't have the time to do it, but it would be mildly interesting to see how many times Michigan has faced WCHA teams in comparison with other schools. North Dakota alone played BC in the NCAA Tournament 7 times from 1999-2008. Of course, the Sioux also have played Michigan 4 times since 1998.
                North Dakota
                National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

                Comment


                • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                  Originally posted by Bakunin View Post
                  Last year was bizarre; the odds must be pretty darn low of a team having to run through four teams from the same conference in a sixteen team field, particularly since both CC and UMD had to pull upsets just to face Michigan (with UMD having to pull multiple upsets as a #3 seed advancing to the title game).
                  Union in the playoffs does not constitute an upset.

                  Comment


                  • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                    Originally posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post
                    I don't have the time to do it, but it would be mildly interesting to see how many times Michigan has faced WCHA teams in comparison with other schools. North Dakota alone played BC in the NCAA Tournament 7 times from 1999-2008. Of course, the Sioux also have played Michigan 4 times since 1998.
                    Since 2000 Michigan's tournament opponents have come from:

                    WCHA: 15
                    HOCKEY EAST: 4
                    ATLANTIC HOCKEY: 2
                    CCHA: 2 (ugh and ugh)
                    ECAC: 1

                    That's just going by what conference they are in now, BSU for instance was still in the CHA when Michigan played them in 2010. Obviously lots of WCHA teams. Might be different for other decades, I feel like Michigan played a lot of Hockey East teams in the 90's.

                    Comment


                    • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                      Originally posted by FlagDUDE08 View Post
                      Union in the playoffs does not constitute an upset.
                      Union in the playoffs is not a sure thing either.

                      Comment


                      • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                        Originally posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post
                        Here is this week's College Hockey Weekly Bracketology...

                        http://www.collegehockeyweekly.com/C..._Pairwise.html

                        (they also have an alternate bracket at the bottom in text format)

                        Also, here is the CHW Tournament Forecast for this week...

                        http://www.collegehockeyweekly.com/T...-Forecast.html
                        Any chance that UND could end up at the X? Odds?

                        Thanks in advance

                        Comment


                        • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                          Originally posted by IronRangeHockey View Post
                          Any chance that UND could end up at the X? Odds?

                          Thanks in advance
                          Iron Range,
                          I see you are a fairly new poster. Have you read the information on this site, and elsewhere, concerning how the process works? Are you familiar with the Pairwise? If not, please take a look at that. It will help you.

                          Once you have some familiarity with the PWR, and the tournament process, then some of this might make more sense:

                          Most likely, UND will end up between 13 and 15 in the PWR if they are in the field. (Any UND posters, I know it is possible they could get higher. Please be patient.) If this is the case, they would be established somewhere as a #4 seed. Then, the question would become how the #1 seeds were assigned (because the committee is supposed to do that first), and also along with that, whether any #1s are WCHA teams (NCAA committee tries to avoid 1st round games between conference mates.) Right now, it seems there is a better than 50% chance that the overall #1 will be from the east. Most likely, the #16 overall will be from Atlantic Hockey, and play that overall #1. If that holds true, UND would have a 1/3 chance of being at the X if they make the field. It is not possible at this time to say much more than that, because there is so much hockey left to play, and these things can change by large amounts in the results of 2 games.

                          In the case where UND gets hot, and continues to play well, and ends up with a #2 (not so likely) or a #3 seed (more likely), then it is simply 1/4 right now where they would be headed. I would bump that slightly to, say, 30% because the committee has latitude to adjust things so as not to pay for flights. But, then i would bump it back down, because it seems more western teams will be in the field, so someone has to fly east to complete those regionals.

                          So, overall, Yes there is a chance. Should they make the field, it is about a 30% chance they would be at the X.

                          Comment


                          • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                            Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                            Iron Range,
                            I see you are a fairly new poster. Have you read the information on this site, and elsewhere, concerning how the process works? Are you familiar with the Pairwise? If not, please take a look at that. It will help you.

                            Once you have some familiarity with the PWR, and the tournament process, then some of this might make more sense:

                            Most likely, UND will end up between 13 and 15 in the PWR if they are in the field. (Any UND posters, I know it is possible they could get higher. Please be patient.) If this is the case, they would be established somewhere as a #4 seed. Then, the question would become how the #1 seeds were assigned (because the committee is supposed to do that first), and also along with that, whether any #1s are WCHA teams (NCAA committee tries to avoid 1st round games between conference mates.) Right now, it seems there is a better than 50% chance that the overall #1 will be from the east. Most likely, the #16 overall will be from Atlantic Hockey, and play that overall #1. If that holds true, UND would have a 1/3 chance of being at the X if they make the field. It is not possible at this time to say much more than that, because there is so much hockey left to play, and these things can change by large amounts in the results of 2 games.

                            In the case where UND gets hot, and continues to play well, and ends up with a #2 (not so likely) or a #3 seed (more likely), then it is simply 1/4 right now where they would be headed. I would bump that slightly to, say, 30% because the committee has latitude to adjust things so as not to pay for flights. But, then i would bump it back down, because it seems more western teams will be in the field, so someone has to fly east to complete those regionals.

                            So, overall, Yes there is a chance. Should they make the field, it is about a 30% chance they would be at the X.
                            Thanks for the reply. Im pretty decent (not perfect with the pairwise), but I know some of you numbers folks would be better suited to forecst the chances. Thanks. I looked at the NCAA sched a few weeks ago and it looked at the time DU had the biggest PWR stretch ahead of them (i think it was all 4 remaining series if im not mistaken), and I really dint know exactly how that would play out with UND, as it always is with UND the home stretch changes everything

                            Thanks for the percentage! Much appreciated. I've seen you, prceless and FS23 are pretty well versed in this department. I'll just keep lurking this thread

                            Comment


                            • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                              Are there any working Pairwise calculators out there yet for this season? These don't seem to show up until the end of the regular season.

                              I am trying to get a handle on what would happen in various scenarios if UNO were to win out the regular season, win their first series in the WCHA tournament, and at least one more game beyond that. Basically, if they can get in without winning the conference tournament.

                              Probably asking a lot this soon since the permutations/possibilities are still endless.

                              Playoffstatus.com shows UNO having a chance to make the tournament (albeit not a very good one) without winning the conference tourney. I am trying to figure out what that scenario is.

                              http://playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/...npartprob.html

                              Comment


                              • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                                Originally posted by Red Cows View Post
                                Are there any working Pairwise calculators out there yet for this season? These don't seem to show up until the end of the regular season.

                                I am trying to get a handle on what would happen in various scenarios if UNO were to win out the regular season, win their first series in the WCHA tournament, and at least one more game beyond that. Basically, if they can get in without winning the conference tournament.

                                Probably asking a lot this soon since the permutations/possibilities are still endless.

                                Playoffstatus.com shows UNO having a chance to make the tournament (albeit not a very good one) without winning the conference tourney. I am trying to figure out what that scenario is.

                                http://playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/...npartprob.html
                                The Do-It-Yourself calculator is now up to date and includes all games. The script for the remaining regular season games is:

                                20120224 Ar 0 SH 0 ah
                                20120224 Mh 0 Ca 0 ah
                                20120224 Ct 0 AI 0 ah
                                20120224 AF 0 RM 0 ah
                                20120224 RT 0 Ni 0 ah
                                20120224 HC 0 By 0 ah
                                20120224 OS 0 Mm 0 cc
                                20120224 LS 0 NM 0 cc
                                20120224 Mi 0 BG 0 cc
                                20120224 MS 0 Nt 0 cc
                                20120224 FS 0 WM 0 cc
                                20120224 Bn 0 Qn 0 ec
                                20120224 Ya 0 Pn 0 ec
                                20120224 SL 0 Ha 0 ec
                                20120224 Ck 0 Da 0 ec
                                20120224 Un 0 Cr 0 ec
                                20120224 RP 0 Cg 0 ec
                                20120224 BU 0 Vt 0 he
                                20120224 NH 0 MA 0 he
                                20120224 Me 0 NE 0 he
                                20120224 BC 0 Pv 0 he
                                20120224 ML 0 Mr 0 he
                                20120224 ND 0 DU 0 wc
                                20120224 Mn 0 NO 0 wc
                                20120224 Wi 0 BS 0 wc
                                20120224 SC 0 MT 0 wc
                                20120224 CC 0 MD 0 wc
                                20120224 Ak 0 AA 0 nc
                                20120225 ND 0 DU 0 wc
                                20120225 SC 0 MT 0 wc
                                20120225 CC 0 MD 0 wc
                                20120225 Mn 0 NO 0 wc
                                20120225 Wi 0 BS 0 wc
                                20120225 AA 0 Ak 0 nc
                                20120225 Mr 0 ML 0 he
                                20120225 NH 0 MA 0 he
                                20120225 Me 0 NE 0 he
                                20120225 BU 0 Vt 0 he
                                20120225 Pv 0 BC 0 he
                                20120225 Ck 0 Ha 0 ec
                                20120225 Un 0 Cg 0 ec
                                20120225 RP 0 Cr 0 ec
                                20120225 Bn 0 Pn 0 ec
                                20120225 Ya 0 Qn 0 ec
                                20120225 SL 0 Da 0 ec
                                20120225 LS 0 NM 0 cc
                                20120225 WM 0 FS 0 cc
                                20120225 MS 0 Nt 0 cc
                                20120225 Mi 0 BG 0 cc
                                20120225 Mm 0 OS 0 cc
                                20120225 AF 0 RM 0 ah
                                20120225 Ni 0 RT 0 ah
                                20120225 SH 0 Ar 0 ah
                                20120225 Ca 0 Mh 0 ah
                                20120225 AI 0 Ct 0 ah
                                20120225 By 0 HC 0 ah
                                20120302 MT 0 CC 0 wc
                                20120302 Mk 0 ND 0 wc
                                20120302 DU 0 NO 0 wc
                                20120302 MD 0 SC 0 wc
                                20120302 Wi 0 Mn 0 wc
                                20120302 BS 0 AA 0 wc
                                20120302 Vt 0 BC 0 he
                                20120302 NE 0 BU 0 he
                                20120302 ML 0 Pv 0 he
                                20120302 Mr 0 MA 0 he
                                20120303 MT 0 CC 0 wc
                                20120303 MD 0 SC 0 wc
                                20120303 Mk 0 ND 0 wc
                                20120303 Wi 0 Mn 0 wc
                                20120303 DU 0 NO 0 wc
                                20120303 BS 0 AA 0 wc
                                20120303 Vt 0 BC 0 he
                                20120303 MA 0 Mr 0 he
                                20120303 BU 0 NE 0 he
                                20120303 NH 0 Me 0 he
                                20120303 Pv 0 ML 0 he

                                The score of all games is defaulted to 0-0. To choose a winner change the 0 to a 1. For example, to decide the March 3 UNH-Maine game

                                To have Maine win
                                20120303 NH 0 Me 1 he
                                To have UNH win
                                20120303 NH 1 Me 0 he
                                To have the game end in a tie, leave it.
                                Make sure you choose the "Specify results" option.

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X