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SanTropez
03-03-2012, 12:18 AM
Bemidji State beat UAA 2-1

Numbers
03-03-2012, 12:21 AM
So, Priceless, in this scenario, before you know who the tourney teams are, and you are just trying to find the field, do you not count the TUC piece of the compares, or do you use Top-15 = TUC as your breakpoint?

I personally think the best is a totally weighted scale. And, the NCAA would never do this, but I would take all the teams above whatever cutoff you want, and then use KRACH as a measuring stick, and I would ask the Math guys at Cornell to work out the most fair compare. It might be SUM((W + .5*T)*KRACH # of opponent) over all opponents/# games played against TUCs. That way, if I beat BC twice, it helps me more than beating Northeastern twice. But, no matter what you do, you still have a cliff, so it's always going to have possibilities like what we are looking at with UMD and Bemidji (or, to a lesser extent, Minnesota and Bemidji.)

It is not so much that I am against the TUC component, rather, here, I am simply pointing out that Bemidji's status makes a big difference for UMD at the top of the list. And, I want to point out that UMD's RPI is 5th in the nation, and a long way below first. Therefore, just by the numbers, it does seem that their PWR ranking is somewhat skewed by their exceptional TUC record. So, in case of a committee wondering how to arrange the tourney, if they end up #1 in PWR, I think it would be OK if the committee did not afford them the usual 'protective' treatment. So, maybe they go to Green Bay because the bracket comes out better or something...

Biddco
03-03-2012, 12:22 AM
Biddco and other Bulldog fans,

I think there are 2 options for your school. One is, hope that Bemidji retains TUC status, and then the Bulldogs will likely have a #1 seed, and go to St Paul. Nice for you so you have the last line change, etc. The other option is, hope that Bemidji loses TUC status, then you are likely not a #1 seed anywhere, and you could end up in Worcester or Bridgeport, too, as well as Green Bay. It doesn't really matter to me, but it looks like those are your options.Either way my team is in the dance. Perhaps UMD will be able to even the season series in St. Paul ;)

Numbers
03-03-2012, 12:28 AM
Either way my team is in the dance. Perhaps UMD will be able to even the season series in St. Paul ;)

You mean one game at the WCHA Final Five and then one more in the West Region?? That would be nice for you. It's tough to pull that one off, though. I remember the year Wheeler scored that incredible goal in OT against UND at the X in the F5, and then the Region Final was a repeat, and the Gophers ran out of gas and couldn't get it done in the end.

Good luck, though. At this time of year, I find myself looking for scenarios that get the most WCHA teams in, and doing the best...

Biddco
03-03-2012, 12:31 AM
You mean one game at the WCHA Final Five and then one more in the West Region?? That would be nice for you. It's tough to pull that one off, though. I remember the year Wheeler scored that incredible goal in OT against UND at the X in the F5, and then the Region Final was a repeat, and the Gophers ran out of gas and couldn't get it done in the end.

Good luck, though. At this time of year, I find myself looking for scenarios that get the most WCHA teams in, and doing the best...Nice job, you got what was referring too! We'll see about my joke/possibility. I could see us or UMTC losing our first games (knock on wood that UMD gets there) at the X. time will tell..

Priceless
03-03-2012, 09:02 AM
The new TUC line:


Mass-Amherst 0.5054
Air Force 0.5046
New Hampshire 0.5039
NorthEastern 0.5022
---
NE-Omaha 0.4996
RIT 0.4985
Yale 0.4976
Niagara 0.4973

Northeastern is eliminated from postseason play. This is the last game. A win or tie and they will remain a TUC. A loss and they'll be around .4995 and likely not a TUC.
UMass needs a win/tie tonight OR a win in the HEA first round or they will fall from TUC status.
New Hampshire needs a win today OR to advance to at least the HEA semis to remain a TUC.
Yale needs to advance to the ECAC semis to climb up to TUC status. They will attain TUC with a win tonight, but losing twice to Harvard (even with a win thrown in) will ding their RPI.
Nebraska-Omaha will need to at least advance to the Final Five to be a TUC at season's end.

Tater
03-03-2012, 09:52 AM
The new TUC line:


Mass-Amherst 0.5054
Air Force 0.5046
New Hampshire 0.5039
NorthEastern 0.5022
---
NE-Omaha 0.4996
RIT 0.4985
Yale 0.4976
Niagara 0.4973

Northeastern is eliminated from postseason play. This is the last game. A win or tie and they will remain a TUC. A loss and they'll be around .4995 and likely not a TUC.
UMass needs a win/tie tonight OR a win in the HEA first round or they will fall from TUC status.
New Hampshire needs a win today OR to advance to at least the HEA semis to remain a TUC.
Yale needs to advance to the ECAC semis to climb up to TUC status. They will attain TUC with a win tonight, but losing twice to Harvard (even with a win thrown in) will ding their RPI.
Nebraska-Omaha will need to at least advance to the Final Five to be a TUC at season's end.

The Hockey East teams have a lot riding on this. I would say at least 2-3 of these teams drop out in the end and the BC, BU, Lowell, Maine teams will take a bit of a hit on the PWR.

Numbers
03-03-2012, 10:08 AM
The Hockey East teams have a lot riding on this. I would say at least 2-3 of these teams drop out in the end and the BC, BU, Lowell, Maine teams will take a bit of a hit on the PWR.

Good point, BG. I have been thinking of this only from a western perspective. I just took a look, and this is how it seems to me:
BU - 3-0 vs NH, 2-0 vs NE, 1-1-1 vs UMass. If they beat NE again, that would make 3-0. If both NH and NE fall out of TUC status, that makes 6-0 lost off the BU TUC record.
BC - 3-0 vs NH, 4-0 vs NE, 1-2 vs UMass. Losing NH and NE from TUC status would hurt, but UMass would be a good thing, although that would likely require BC beating them next week, and negating the advantage they would have gained.
Lowell - 2-1 versus NH and NE, 3-0 vs UMass, and Lowell's TUC record is something like 13-7-1 now, so NH and NE don't affect Lowell, but UMass sure does.
Maine - 2-1 vs NE, 1-1 vs NH right now, with a game to go, 2-1-1 vs UMass. TUC record : 10-10-3, so not much change.
Merrimack - 1-1-1 vs NH, 2-0-1 vs NE, 1-1 vs UMass with a game to play. TUC record : 8-8-6. NH part doesn't mean much, but NE makes a big difference, UMass? Well, not sure yet.

And, along with that, on the other side, you have Minnesota, with a loss to NE, thinking it would be great if NE lost and lost their TUC status.

However, BC has such an advantage in RPI (I know it's only one component, but it seems to transfer pretty well...) that the hit to their TUC record might not cost them so much. We'll know after tonight if it happens.

mookie1995
03-03-2012, 10:30 AM
you have to recall it is all about comparisons. bc is sitting with a tuc % of 62.5 right now (only losing that to four teams [umd, uml, ferris, bu]). if they lose that 4-0-0 record their tuc % falls to 56.25 and they fall behind michigan, union (!!!?!?), gophers (since they lose the nu defeat) and denver -- as well as getting in reach of a whole lot of teams..

Numbers
03-03-2012, 10:39 AM
you have to recall it is all about comparisons. bc is sitting with a tuc % of 62.5 right now (only losing that to four teams [umd, uml, ferris, bu]). if they lose that 4-0-0 record their tuc % falls to 56.25 and they fall behind michigan, union (!!!?!?), gophers (since they lose the nu defeat) and denver -- as well as getting in reach of a whole lot of teams..

Totally with you, Mookie. However, take heart!! For example, compare BC to Minn. At this point very unlikely that Minnesota passes BC in RPI. Give Minnesota the TUC point in the comparison if you want to. BC has such an edge in ComOpp, that Minnesota basically can't catch up. The only way for BC to lose this comparison is to fall behind in RPI. That probably requires something like: BC loses tonight, then is swept next week, all while Minnesota wins out, or almost wins out. Pretty unlikely. i think there are many comparisons for BC that would be similar.

JimDahl
03-03-2012, 10:51 AM
#13 Denver at #30 Nebraska-Omaha: Denver sits on the bubble of making the tournament whereas UNO is on the bubble for being a TUC. Losing them as a TUC would be bad news for Minnesota (2-0) and Denver (currently 1-0-1 vs UNO). To remain a TUC through the weekend, UNO needs at least one tie. A sweep would boost Denver's RPI enough that even losing the Mavs as a TUC would bump them into the top 10 in the pairwise.


I'm a day late here, but it would take some luck for Denver come out of the weekend in the top 10. Even with a sweep, they're most likely looking at 11-13. I posted the complete table of probabilities in my weekly PWR blog post (http://blog.siouxsports.com/2012/02/28/sioux-hosting-msu-mankato-in-a-nearly-must-win-situation/) (probabilities for external games determined by KRACH).

Patman
03-03-2012, 10:53 AM
The new TUC line:


Mass-Amherst 0.5054
Air Force 0.5046
New Hampshire 0.5039
NorthEastern 0.5022
---
NE-Omaha 0.4996
RIT 0.4985
Yale 0.4976
Niagara 0.4973

Northeastern is eliminated from postseason play. This is the last game. A win or tie and they will remain a TUC. A loss and they'll be around .4995 and likely not a TUC.
UMass needs a win/tie tonight OR a win in the HEA first round or they will fall from TUC status.
New Hampshire needs a win today OR to advance to at least the HEA semis to remain a TUC.
Yale needs to advance to the ECAC semis to climb up to TUC status. They will attain TUC with a win tonight, but losing twice to Harvard (even with a win thrown in) will ding their RPI.
Nebraska-Omaha will need to at least advance to the Final Five to be a TUC at season's end.

At .4995 they'll bounce back and forth as SOS shifts... like a small child playing with a flamethrower... it'll be fascinating and scary at the same time.

yalehockeyfan
03-03-2012, 10:57 AM
It's only because Yale was hosting that there was certain to be an ECAC team there. Won't happen this year.

Yes it will as Yale will be #4 seed in Bridgeport this year.

Numbers
03-03-2012, 10:58 AM
At .4995 they'll bounce back and forth as SOS shifts... like a small child playing with a flamethrower... it'll be fascinating and scary at the same time.

That's what I was thinking, too, Patman. The best way for them to end up outside, would have been to not win last week, or this week. Or, to get just enough this week, with Amherst losing, to qualify for the HE playoffs, and then get swept. In other words:

As it happened: Last 2 weeks, 1-3. (If they lose tonight.)
As it could have happened: Last 2 weeks, 0-4.
Or, as it could have happened, scenario 2: Last 2 weeks, 1-2-1, with Amherst losing out, and then NE goes 0-2 versus Bu or BC next week = 1-4-1 total for the last 3 weeks.

I am thinking like this now: If NE loses, and falls to .4995, I am happy as a Gopher fan. But, if the Gophers win, then that raises NE's SoS, and maybe puts them back in. Back and forth, back and forth....

Numbers
03-03-2012, 11:05 AM
Yes it will as Yale will be #4 seed in Bridgeport this year.

yhf,

Could you clarify, please? Are you saying that you predict Yale will win ECAC playoff, and thus go to Bridgeport? Or, do you mean something more? Like, either Cornell or Union will be there anyway, because of something in the system that the rest of us are overlooking?

Thanks.

Patman
03-03-2012, 11:05 AM
That's what I was thinking, too, Patman. The best way for them to end up outside, would have been to not win last week, or this week. Or, to get just enough this week, with Amherst losing, to qualify for the HE playoffs, and then get swept. In other words:

As it happened: Last 2 weeks, 1-3. (If they lose tonight.)
As it could have happened: Last 2 weeks, 0-4.
Or, as it could have happened, scenario 2: Last 2 weeks, 1-2-1, with Amherst losing out, and then NE goes 0-2 versus Bu or BC next week = 1-4-1 total for the last 3 weeks.

I am thinking like this now: If NE loses, and falls to .4995, I am happy as a Gopher fan. But, if the Gophers win, then that raises NE's SoS, and maybe puts them back in. Back and forth, back and forth....

I'm trying to remember who their beanpot first round was against... if it's bc, bc is going to win a lot in the next few weeks... that'll help pull them above water as well.

yalehockeyfan
03-03-2012, 12:00 PM
yhf,

Could you clarify, please? Are you saying that you predict Yale will win ECAC playoff, and thus go to Bridgeport? Or, do you mean something more? Like, either Cornell or Union will be there anyway, because of something in the system that the rest of us are overlooking?

Thanks.

With complete bias, I predict that Yale will be in Bridgeport and there is of course only one way for that to happen (they win ECAC auto-bid). I had no confidence that this was possible 3 weeks ago. However since then we have changed goalies and completely altered the pairing on our top three lines. This has results in us going 4-0-1 over that time, and more importantly playing like the team that has won the ECAC Championship 2 of the last 3 years. It won't be easy, but like UConn in college hoops, I wouldn't count them out just yet.

UNHHurstFan
03-03-2012, 03:21 PM
The new TUC line:


Mass-Amherst 0.5054
Air Force 0.5046
New Hampshire 0.5039
NorthEastern 0.5022
---
NE-Omaha 0.4996
RIT 0.4985
Yale 0.4976
Niagara 0.4973



Based on this, is it possible that the AHA could get two teams in the tournament this year if RIT and Air Force make it to the Conference Championship game?

aparch
03-03-2012, 03:33 PM
Based on this, is it possible that the AHA could get two teams in the tournament this year if RIT and Air Force make it to the Conference Championship game?Only if one of the two wins the AHA Championship for the auto-bid and the other has a good enough PWR record to be in the top 15.

TUC != NCAA Tournament bid.



To simplify the answer: No.
http://siouxsports.com/hockey/rankings/pwr/

Patman
03-03-2012, 03:33 PM
The new TUC line:


Mass-Amherst 0.5054
Air Force 0.5046
New Hampshire 0.5039
NorthEastern 0.5022
---
NE-Omaha 0.4996
RIT 0.4985
Yale 0.4976
Niagara 0.4973



Based on this, is it possible that the AHA could get two teams in the tournament this year if RIT and Air Force make it to the Conference Championship game?

Monolithically unlikely I'd think