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2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

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  • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

    Priceless,

    Have you tried Whelan's site again recently? Is it still missing those first 3 games of the year? And, if so, what are the scripts for them again, please?

    It's too big a job to play with much right now, but on conference quarterfinal weekend, it is great. It's possible to actually get a good feel for what certain teams need in order to make the NCAAs. I am looking forward to that, and wondering if Whelan has put in all the early season games, yet.

    Thanks.

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    • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

      Originally posted by Numbers View Post
      Priceless,

      Have you tried Whelan's site again recently? Is it still missing those first 3 games of the year? And, if so, what are the scripts for them again, please?

      It's too big a job to play with much right now, but on conference quarterfinal weekend, it is great. It's possible to actually get a good feel for what certain teams need in order to make the NCAAs. I am looking forward to that, and wondering if Whelan has put in all the early season games, yet.

      Thanks.
      Yes. Yes.
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      • Originally posted by gopheritall View Post
        I agree with #1 but #2 cannot be predicted.
        Yes it can. It just requires heavier machinery
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        • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

          Originally posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post
          To play the #14 instead of the #15 overall seed?
          Come on, don't play dumb

          If I were a Michigan fan, I'd much rather take on Cornell in St. Paul than North Dakota.

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          • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

            Originally posted by J.D. View Post
            Come on, don't play dumb

            If I were a Michigan fan, I'd much rather take on Cornell in St. Paul than North Dakota.
            So would I. Fortunately for the rest of us, Michigan doesn't get to pick the brackets. FWIW, I don't think they would swap the two, but I think it is something that should at the very least be discussed.
            North Dakota
            National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

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            • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

              Here is this week's College Hockey Weekly Bracketology...

              http://www.collegehockeyweekly.com/C..._Pairwise.html

              (they also have an alternate bracket at the bottom in text format)

              Also, here is the CHW Tournament Forecast for this week...

              http://www.collegehockeyweekly.com/T...-Forecast.html
              North Dakota
              National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

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              • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                I actually don't think it should be discussed. As the #2 overall seed, Michigan and fans would be traveling longer to St. Paul with the potential to play Minny in a road game the next day. I don't see any way under that scenario that the committee would then make Michigan play a higher ranked team than they should based off bracket integrity in what would be another road game.

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                • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                  Originally posted by J.D. View Post
                  I actually don't think it should be discussed. As the #2 overall seed, Michigan and fans would be traveling longer to St. Paul with the potential to play Minny in a road game the next day. I don't see any way under that scenario that the committee would then make Michigan play a higher ranked team than they should based off bracket integrity in what would be another road game.
                  It would definitely not be another road game. I would imagine that travel time would be relatively close for each of the two schools. North Dakota would probably have more fans there, but I think you are overestimating how many Sioux fans would actually be there compared with how many Gopher fans would be there rooting against the Sioux. It could very well turn into a quasi-home game for Michigan.
                  North Dakota
                  National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

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                  • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                    Aren't Sioux fans notorious for flocking to the Final Five/Frozen Four? Why would this be any different? Grand Forks is far closer to St. Paul than Ann Arbor is.

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                    • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                      Originally posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post
                      Here is this week's College Hockey Weekly Bracketology...

                      http://www.collegehockeyweekly.com/C..._Pairwise.html

                      (they also have an alternate bracket at the bottom in text format)

                      Also, here is the CHW Tournament Forecast for this week...

                      http://www.collegehockeyweekly.com/T...-Forecast.html
                      The forecast has North Dakota as a 3 seed - I think the computer is more optomistic than most of the fans!
                      Believe it. Earn it. Raise it.

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                      • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                        Originally posted by J.D. View Post
                        Aren't Sioux fans notorious for flocking to the Final Five/Frozen Four? Why would this be any different? Grand Forks is far closer to St. Paul than Ann Arbor is.
                        I would imagine that because the Gophers are the host, they have been buying up most of the tickets knowing that if they make the tourney that is where they will be playing. North Dakota fans on the other hand have to wait until the Sunday before the Tournament to know where they will be playing to buy tickets. It makes logical sense that Gopher fans will outnumber Sioux fans.

                        The Final Five is a known event/location every year. North Dakota fans can buy tickets to this event months prior knowing that if the Sioux make the Tournament, that they will be playing there. It is extremely different than a regional where fans won't know if the team will be playing there until 5 or 6 days before the event.

                        As for the Frozen Four, many Sioux fans buy tickets to that regardless if the team makes it or not. That was especially the case last year when many thought the Sioux would make the Frozen Four (and did). Again, the Frozen Four is in one location, and if you make the Frozen Four, you know immediately where you will be playing.

                        As for distance, North Dakota would have to drive to St Paul, which takes approximately 5 hours by bus. I do not know how long it takes to fly from Ann Arbor to St. Paul, but I would imagine that it takes significantly less than 5 hours. Factor in the time associated with flying, and I would imagine that it is fairly close to 5 hours.
                        North Dakota
                        National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

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                        • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                          Originally posted by Siouxfaninseattle View Post
                          The forecast has North Dakota as a 3 seed - I think the computer is more optomistic than most of the fans!
                          I had UND as a #3 seed on my ballot. A few people had them as high as #2 seeds. If the Sioux can split with Denver, sweep Minnesota State, win their first round series, and perhaps win a game or two at the Final Five, I think they finish somewhere around 10-12...which would be a 3 seed. If they were to win out, they likely get a #2 seed, and I think there is even a small chance of getting a #1...that situation is extremely unlikely though.
                          North Dakota
                          National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

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                          • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                            fs23,

                            How does CHW do its prediction? I see little value in compiling a few guesses and the tabulating them. Also, those 'guesses' seem to leave eastern teams in the east and western teams in the west.

                            It seems to me that a full up prediction would force all of you voters to put in your predictions of the final pairwise, then tabulate that to make a full 'top-16' which would include some one from AHA, and then someone has to take those top 16 and do a bracketology.

                            Does CHW actually do that?

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                            • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                              Numbers, it doesn't always work out this way, but if you were to come up with a bracket today...I think you're right in that all four Hockey East entrants would be in the East and Green Bay/St. Paul could be entirely all western teams.

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                              • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                                Also, for what it's worth, my current bracketology would go, simply by the book:

                                1 BC to Worcester, 2 Michigan to Green Bay (this is what the book says to do), 3 UML to Bridgeport, 4 Ferris to St Paul
                                8 Minnesota to St Paul, 5 UMD with UML to Bridgeport, 6 BU with Michigan to Green Bay, 7 Union with BC to Worcester
                                9 Maine vs Minnesota, 10 Mich State vs Union, 11 Miami vs BU, 12 Denver vs UMD (whoops, swap Miami and DU)
                                13 OSU vs Ferris, 14 NoDak vs UML, 15 Cornell vs Michigan, 16 AHA vs BC (whoops, OSU has to play UML, then NoDak v Ferris), and you get:

                                Worcester: 1) BC vs 16) AHA; 7) Union vs 10) Mich State
                                Green Bay: 2) Michigan vs 15) Cornell; 6) BU vs 12) Denver
                                Bridgeport: 3) Lowell vs 13) Ohio State; 5)UMD vs 11) Miami
                                St Paul: 4) Ferris vs 14) NoDak; 8) Minnesota vs 9) Maine

                                The Book says to stop right there. There is no need to change anything else, so I don't think the committee would. The only attendance swap that would make sense would be the BU/DU game for the UMD/Miami game to help Bridgeport. It would also help Green Bay, so I would be tempted to do that if it were up to me. Also, the bracket integrity looks better with the Michigan game in St Paul, but the RPI numbers are so close among teams 2 -5 that I don't think that is such a big deal.

                                I am sure there are contrary opinions. This is just the simplest way... No justifying changes, just 'the rules say it's like this.'

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