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Numbers
02-19-2012, 10:02 PM
Also, I am sorry for the storm my post created with Ferris vs Minnesota. As I mentioned, I was thinking 'Grand Rapids" as I figured, not Green Bay. So, the wolverines fly anyway, go to St Paul. I can understand why everyone thinks that.

What I am not clear on is why the consensus here is Minn v Mich State and Union v Maine, when the current PWR would have Minn v Maine and Union v MSU? I get it about flying. I get it that supposedly MSU fans would go to St Paul. But, I also get it that Minnesota v Maine and the X is a rematch of a nice game played a few years ago in the same location (a game that didn't mean much....:D). And, so, I am not sure why people are so quick to want to change that game out...

Thanks.

Bakunin
02-19-2012, 10:04 PM
Last year was bizarre; the odds must be pretty darn low of a team having to run through four teams from the same conference in a sixteen team field, particularly since both CC and UMD had to pull upsets just to face Michigan (with UMD having to pull multiple upsets as a #3 seed advancing to the title game).

Fighting Sioux 23
02-19-2012, 10:11 PM
Last year was bizarre; the odds must be pretty darn low of a team having to run through four teams from the same conference in a sixteen team field, particularly since both CC and UMD had to pull upsets just to face Michigan (with UMD having to pull multiple upsets as a #3 seed advancing to the title game).

Agreed. Michigan State beat 3 Hockey East teams (and Notre Dame, a future Hockey East Team) in 2007 en route to the title. That's about the closest I can find to what Michigan did last year.

J.D.
02-20-2012, 12:55 AM
What I am not clear on is why the consensus here is Minn v Mich State and Union v Maine, when the current PWR would have Minn v Maine and Union v MSU? I get it about flying. I get it that supposedly MSU fans would go to St Paul. But, I also get it that Minnesota v Maine and the X is a rematch of a nice game played a few years ago in the same location (a game that didn't mean much....:D).

7. Union
8. Minnesota
9. Maine
10. Michigan State

In an ideal tournament, yes, Union would play MSU and Minnesota would play Maine. We'll never have an ideal tournament. I don't have much of an explanation for you other than putting Maine in Worcester with BC would be dynamite for attendance there.

JimDahl
02-20-2012, 02:55 PM
I agree with #1 but #2 cannot be predicted.

Figuring out the likelihood of there being no upsets should be pretty straightforward, assuming you have odds for each matchup that you're happy with. A pretty good estimate would be taking the krach ratios as odds of winning -- it doesn't take into account the changing quality of teams over the course of the season, but otherwise is a pretty good estimate.

Once you have odds for each game, just multiply out the chain of likelihoods of all the favored teams winning. I don't have the right data in front of me right now, but a quick back of the envelope hints that it's going to be a REALLY small number.

Wol4ine
02-20-2012, 03:06 PM
Agreed. Michigan State beat 3 Hockey East teams (and Notre Dame, a future Hockey East Team) in 2007 en route to the title. That's about the closest I can find to what Michigan did last year.
In 2002 UM beat SCSU and Denver before falling to Minnesota in the semi's. In 2005 UM beat Wisconsin, then lost to CC. Had they won the regional, they would have faced Denver for a chance to play the UND vs Minnesota winner (UND) in the title game. Like I said, no one faces WCHA teams in the NCAA's more than Michigan.

Fighting Sioux 23
02-20-2012, 03:09 PM
In 2002 UM beat SCSU and Denver before falling to Minnesota in the semi's. In 2005 UM beat Wisconsin, then lost to CC. Had they won the regional, they would have faced Denver for a chance to play the UND vs Minnesota winner (UND) in the title game. Like I said, no one faces WCHA teams in the NCAA's more than Michigan.

I don't have the time to do it, but it would be mildly interesting to see how many times Michigan has faced WCHA teams in comparison with other schools. North Dakota alone played BC in the NCAA Tournament 7 times from 1999-2008. Of course, the Sioux also have played Michigan 4 times since 1998.

FlagDUDE08
02-20-2012, 03:24 PM
Last year was bizarre; the odds must be pretty darn low of a team having to run through four teams from the same conference in a sixteen team field, particularly since both CC and UMD had to pull upsets just to face Michigan (with UMD having to pull multiple upsets as a #3 seed advancing to the title game).

Union in the playoffs does not constitute an upset. :p:D

wooderson
02-20-2012, 04:20 PM
I don't have the time to do it, but it would be mildly interesting to see how many times Michigan has faced WCHA teams in comparison with other schools. North Dakota alone played BC in the NCAA Tournament 7 times from 1999-2008. Of course, the Sioux also have played Michigan 4 times since 1998.

Since 2000 Michigan's tournament opponents have come from:

WCHA: 15
HOCKEY EAST: 4
ATLANTIC HOCKEY: 2
CCHA: 2 (ugh and ugh)
ECAC: 1

That's just going by what conference they are in now, BSU for instance was still in the CHA when Michigan played them in 2010. Obviously lots of WCHA teams. Might be different for other decades, I feel like Michigan played a lot of Hockey East teams in the 90's.

Osorojo
02-21-2012, 08:11 AM
Union in the playoffs does not constitute an upset. :p:D

Union in the playoffs is not a sure thing either.

IronRangeHockey
02-21-2012, 12:34 PM
Here is this week's College Hockey Weekly Bracketology...

http://www.collegehockeyweekly.com/Current_Pairwise.html

(they also have an alternate bracket at the bottom in text format)

Also, here is the CHW Tournament Forecast for this week...

http://www.collegehockeyweekly.com/Tournament-Forecast.html

Any chance that UND could end up at the X? Odds?

Thanks in advance

Numbers
02-21-2012, 01:38 PM
Any chance that UND could end up at the X? Odds?

Thanks in advance

Iron Range,
I see you are a fairly new poster. Have you read the information on this site, and elsewhere, concerning how the process works? Are you familiar with the Pairwise? If not, please take a look at that. It will help you.

Once you have some familiarity with the PWR, and the tournament process, then some of this might make more sense:

Most likely, UND will end up between 13 and 15 in the PWR if they are in the field. (Any UND posters, I know it is possible they could get higher. Please be patient.) If this is the case, they would be established somewhere as a #4 seed. Then, the question would become how the #1 seeds were assigned (because the committee is supposed to do that first), and also along with that, whether any #1s are WCHA teams (NCAA committee tries to avoid 1st round games between conference mates.) Right now, it seems there is a better than 50% chance that the overall #1 will be from the east. Most likely, the #16 overall will be from Atlantic Hockey, and play that overall #1. If that holds true, UND would have a 1/3 chance of being at the X if they make the field. It is not possible at this time to say much more than that, because there is so much hockey left to play, and these things can change by large amounts in the results of 2 games.

In the case where UND gets hot, and continues to play well, and ends up with a #2 (not so likely) or a #3 seed (more likely), then it is simply 1/4 right now where they would be headed. I would bump that slightly to, say, 30% because the committee has latitude to adjust things so as not to pay for flights. But, then i would bump it back down, because it seems more western teams will be in the field, so someone has to fly east to complete those regionals.

So, overall, Yes there is a chance. Should they make the field, it is about a 30% chance they would be at the X.

IronRangeHockey
02-21-2012, 01:59 PM
Iron Range,
I see you are a fairly new poster. Have you read the information on this site, and elsewhere, concerning how the process works? Are you familiar with the Pairwise? If not, please take a look at that. It will help you.

Once you have some familiarity with the PWR, and the tournament process, then some of this might make more sense:

Most likely, UND will end up between 13 and 15 in the PWR if they are in the field. (Any UND posters, I know it is possible they could get higher. Please be patient.) If this is the case, they would be established somewhere as a #4 seed. Then, the question would become how the #1 seeds were assigned (because the committee is supposed to do that first), and also along with that, whether any #1s are WCHA teams (NCAA committee tries to avoid 1st round games between conference mates.) Right now, it seems there is a better than 50% chance that the overall #1 will be from the east. Most likely, the #16 overall will be from Atlantic Hockey, and play that overall #1. If that holds true, UND would have a 1/3 chance of being at the X if they make the field. It is not possible at this time to say much more than that, because there is so much hockey left to play, and these things can change by large amounts in the results of 2 games.

In the case where UND gets hot, and continues to play well, and ends up with a #2 (not so likely) or a #3 seed (more likely), then it is simply 1/4 right now where they would be headed. I would bump that slightly to, say, 30% because the committee has latitude to adjust things so as not to pay for flights. But, then i would bump it back down, because it seems more western teams will be in the field, so someone has to fly east to complete those regionals.

So, overall, Yes there is a chance. Should they make the field, it is about a 30% chance they would be at the X.

Thanks for the reply. Im pretty decent (not perfect with the pairwise), but I know some of you numbers folks would be better suited to forecst the chances. Thanks. I looked at the NCAA sched a few weeks ago and it looked at the time DU had the biggest PWR stretch ahead of them (i think it was all 4 remaining series if im not mistaken), and I really dint know exactly how that would play out with UND, as it always is with UND the home stretch changes everything :)

Thanks for the percentage! Much appreciated. I've seen you, prceless and FS23 are pretty well versed in this department. I'll just keep lurking this thread

Red Cows
02-21-2012, 02:03 PM
Are there any working Pairwise calculators out there yet for this season? These don't seem to show up until the end of the regular season.

I am trying to get a handle on what would happen in various scenarios if UNO were to win out the regular season, win their first series in the WCHA tournament, and at least one more game beyond that. Basically, if they can get in without winning the conference tournament.

Probably asking a lot this soon since the permutations/possibilities are still endless.

Playoffstatus.com shows UNO having a chance to make the tournament (albeit not a very good one) without winning the conference tourney. I am trying to figure out what that scenario is.

http://playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/ncaahockeytournpartprob.html

Priceless
02-21-2012, 02:22 PM
Are there any working Pairwise calculators out there yet for this season? These don't seem to show up until the end of the regular season.

I am trying to get a handle on what would happen in various scenarios if UNO were to win out the regular season, win their first series in the WCHA tournament, and at least one more game beyond that. Basically, if they can get in without winning the conference tournament.

Probably asking a lot this soon since the permutations/possibilities are still endless.

Playoffstatus.com shows UNO having a chance to make the tournament (albeit not a very good one) without winning the conference tourney. I am trying to figure out what that scenario is.

http://playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/ncaahockeytournpartprob.html

The Do-It-Yourself calculator (http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?2012/rankings.diy.shtml) is now up to date and includes all games. The script for the remaining regular season games is:

20120224 Ar 0 SH 0 ah
20120224 Mh 0 Ca 0 ah
20120224 Ct 0 AI 0 ah
20120224 AF 0 RM 0 ah
20120224 RT 0 Ni 0 ah
20120224 HC 0 By 0 ah
20120224 OS 0 Mm 0 cc
20120224 LS 0 NM 0 cc
20120224 Mi 0 BG 0 cc
20120224 MS 0 Nt 0 cc
20120224 FS 0 WM 0 cc
20120224 Bn 0 Qn 0 ec
20120224 Ya 0 Pn 0 ec
20120224 SL 0 Ha 0 ec
20120224 Ck 0 Da 0 ec
20120224 Un 0 Cr 0 ec
20120224 RP 0 Cg 0 ec
20120224 BU 0 Vt 0 he
20120224 NH 0 MA 0 he
20120224 Me 0 NE 0 he
20120224 BC 0 Pv 0 he
20120224 ML 0 Mr 0 he
20120224 ND 0 DU 0 wc
20120224 Mn 0 NO 0 wc
20120224 Wi 0 BS 0 wc
20120224 SC 0 MT 0 wc
20120224 CC 0 MD 0 wc
20120224 Ak 0 AA 0 nc
20120225 ND 0 DU 0 wc
20120225 SC 0 MT 0 wc
20120225 CC 0 MD 0 wc
20120225 Mn 0 NO 0 wc
20120225 Wi 0 BS 0 wc
20120225 AA 0 Ak 0 nc
20120225 Mr 0 ML 0 he
20120225 NH 0 MA 0 he
20120225 Me 0 NE 0 he
20120225 BU 0 Vt 0 he
20120225 Pv 0 BC 0 he
20120225 Ck 0 Ha 0 ec
20120225 Un 0 Cg 0 ec
20120225 RP 0 Cr 0 ec
20120225 Bn 0 Pn 0 ec
20120225 Ya 0 Qn 0 ec
20120225 SL 0 Da 0 ec
20120225 LS 0 NM 0 cc
20120225 WM 0 FS 0 cc
20120225 MS 0 Nt 0 cc
20120225 Mi 0 BG 0 cc
20120225 Mm 0 OS 0 cc
20120225 AF 0 RM 0 ah
20120225 Ni 0 RT 0 ah
20120225 SH 0 Ar 0 ah
20120225 Ca 0 Mh 0 ah
20120225 AI 0 Ct 0 ah
20120225 By 0 HC 0 ah
20120302 MT 0 CC 0 wc
20120302 Mk 0 ND 0 wc
20120302 DU 0 NO 0 wc
20120302 MD 0 SC 0 wc
20120302 Wi 0 Mn 0 wc
20120302 BS 0 AA 0 wc
20120302 Vt 0 BC 0 he
20120302 NE 0 BU 0 he
20120302 ML 0 Pv 0 he
20120302 Mr 0 MA 0 he
20120303 MT 0 CC 0 wc
20120303 MD 0 SC 0 wc
20120303 Mk 0 ND 0 wc
20120303 Wi 0 Mn 0 wc
20120303 DU 0 NO 0 wc
20120303 BS 0 AA 0 wc
20120303 Vt 0 BC 0 he
20120303 MA 0 Mr 0 he
20120303 BU 0 NE 0 he
20120303 NH 0 Me 0 he
20120303 Pv 0 ML 0 he

The score of all games is defaulted to 0-0. To choose a winner change the 0 to a 1. For example, to decide the March 3 UNH-Maine game

To have Maine win
20120303 NH 0 Me 1 he
To have UNH win
20120303 NH 1 Me 0 he
To have the game end in a tie, leave it.
Make sure you choose the "Specify results" option.

Fighting Sioux 23
02-21-2012, 02:45 PM
Are there any working Pairwise calculators out there yet for this season? These don't seem to show up until the end of the regular season.

I am trying to get a handle on what would happen in various scenarios if UNO were to win out the regular season, win their first series in the WCHA tournament, and at least one more game beyond that. Basically, if they can get in without winning the conference tournament.

Probably asking a lot this soon since the permutations/possibilities are still endless.

Playoffstatus.com shows UNO having a chance to make the tournament (albeit not a very good one) without winning the conference tourney. I am trying to figure out what that scenario is.

http://playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/ncaahockeytournpartprob.html

Keep in mind that playoffstatus.com does not rank teams by PWR, but rather their own ranking system. For Example, Union is #14 in their ranking, while they are #7 in the PWR. That is something to keep in mind when looking at that site.

Numbers
02-21-2012, 03:04 PM
The Do-It-Yourself calculator (http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?2012/rankings.diy.shtml) is now up to date and includes all games. The script for the remaining regular season games is:

20120224 Ar 0 SH 0 ah
20120224 Mh 0 Ca 0 ah
20120224 Ct 0 AI 0 ah
20120224 AF 0 RM 0 ah
20120224 RT 0 Ni 0 ah
20120224 HC 0 By 0 ah
20120224 OS 0 Mm 0 cc
20120224 LS 0 NM 0 cc
20120224 Mi 0 BG 0 cc
20120224 MS 0 Nt 0 cc
20120224 FS 0 WM 0 cc
20120224 Bn 0 Qn 0 ec
20120224 Ya 0 Pn 0 ec
20120224 SL 0 Ha 0 ec
20120224 Ck 0 Da 0 ec
20120224 Un 0 Cr 0 ec
20120224 RP 0 Cg 0 ec
20120224 BU 0 Vt 0 he
20120224 NH 0 MA 0 he
20120224 Me 0 NE 0 he
20120224 BC 0 Pv 0 he
20120224 ML 0 Mr 0 he
20120224 ND 0 DU 0 wc
20120224 Mn 0 NO 0 wc
20120224 Wi 0 BS 0 wc
20120224 SC 0 MT 0 wc
20120224 CC 0 MD 0 wc
20120224 Ak 0 AA 0 nc
20120225 ND 0 DU 0 wc
20120225 SC 0 MT 0 wc
20120225 CC 0 MD 0 wc
20120225 Mn 0 NO 0 wc
20120225 Wi 0 BS 0 wc
20120225 AA 0 Ak 0 nc
20120225 Mr 0 ML 0 he
20120225 NH 0 MA 0 he
20120225 Me 0 NE 0 he
20120225 BU 0 Vt 0 he
20120225 Pv 0 BC 0 he
20120225 Ck 0 Ha 0 ec
20120225 Un 0 Cg 0 ec
20120225 RP 0 Cr 0 ec
20120225 Bn 0 Pn 0 ec
20120225 Ya 0 Qn 0 ec
20120225 SL 0 Da 0 ec
20120225 LS 0 NM 0 cc
20120225 WM 0 FS 0 cc
20120225 MS 0 Nt 0 cc
20120225 Mi 0 BG 0 cc
20120225 Mm 0 OS 0 cc
20120225 AF 0 RM 0 ah
20120225 Ni 0 RT 0 ah
20120225 SH 0 Ar 0 ah
20120225 Ca 0 Mh 0 ah
20120225 AI 0 Ct 0 ah
20120225 By 0 HC 0 ah
20120302 MT 0 CC 0 wc
20120302 Mk 0 ND 0 wc
20120302 DU 0 NO 0 wc
20120302 MD 0 SC 0 wc
20120302 Wi 0 Mn 0 wc
20120302 BS 0 AA 0 wc
20120302 Vt 0 BC 0 he
20120302 NE 0 BU 0 he
20120302 ML 0 Pv 0 he
20120302 Mr 0 MA 0 he
20120303 MT 0 CC 0 wc
20120303 MD 0 SC 0 wc
20120303 Mk 0 ND 0 wc
20120303 Wi 0 Mn 0 wc
20120303 DU 0 NO 0 wc
20120303 BS 0 AA 0 wc
20120303 Vt 0 BC 0 he
20120303 MA 0 Mr 0 he
20120303 BU 0 NE 0 he
20120303 NH 0 Me 0 he
20120303 Pv 0 ML 0 he

The score of all games is defaulted to 0-0. To choose a winner change the 0 to a 1. For example, to decide the March 3 UNH-Maine game

To have Maine win
20120303 NH 0 Me 1 he
To have UNH win
20120303 NH 1 Me 0 he
To have the game end in a tie, leave it.
Make sure you choose the "Specify results" option.

Also, it should be noted that this script does not include the conference playoffs at all, correct Priceless? So, this would take care of the regular season, and then you have to put in the playoffs yourself.

The way to do that in that script is
(4digityear)(2digitmonth)(2digitday)(space)(team1) (space)(goalsscoredbyteam1)(space)(team2)(goalssco redbyteam2)(space)(NC)

Obviously, for this year's conference tourneys, that reduces to
201203(2digitdate) and then the rest. NC means non-conference. Conference playoff games are non-conference schedule games.

You have to make sure you use the right 2 digit code for each team.

And, the winner does not have to be listed first.

And, you do that for each game. Of course, you need to be careful to adjust who plays who down the line, to make sure you get the conference tourney brackets right.

I think I got all that right, didn't I Priceless?

Numbers
02-21-2012, 03:13 PM
And, one more thing, IronRange,

There are so many games left that it is really hard to predict much other than random chance right now. As an example, if you are familiar at all with the PWR, you know that one component is record against TUCs, or teams with a .500 RPI.

I am a Gopher fan. The Gophers lost to Northeastern this year, so it is to Minnesota's advantage that Northeastern not be a TUC - that loss does not count on their TUC record that way.

Right now, as far as I can tell, there is a chance that if Northeastern is swept this weekend, their RPI will fall below .500, and also they will not qualify for the HE tourney. That might be a great result for Minnesota. But, again, it might not, because all the tourney games might end up bumping Northeastern's RPI above .500 anyway, even if they don't play.

On the other hand, there is a chance they can be swept, and still make the tourney, and then lose in the first round, and then their RPI should be safely (to Minnesota's thinking) below .500.

All for one loss against a TUC to come off the Gophers' record. But, that one loss might be the difference in one or two comparisons, and that might make the difference between a 2 seed and 3 seed, or even a 4.

So, with all that in play, I think you can see why right now, the odds of UND being at the X can only be guessed at by 'random' if they make the field.

J.D.
02-21-2012, 03:14 PM
When does Moy usually do his version?

Numbers
02-21-2012, 03:22 PM
When does Moy usually do his version?

Moy does his version on Wednesdays. But, it is not a prediction. Rather, it is an "if the season ended today, this is what the comittee would do." As such, it is more a primer on the process, than a real prediction of what the actual bracket will look like. His only prediction is on Saturday night after all the games are played.

Another valuable resource will be coming soon on collegehockeynews.com. That is Adam Wodon's creation. What he does is called, "Bracket ABCs." It's not a prediction of the actual bracket, but rather a breakdown of which teams need what to happen in order to make the field. So, the talks about TUC records of various schools, and also a few ComOpp matchups that hinder schools in the PWR.

All of that is not perfect. I remember last year, reading that it was hardly going to be possible for Minnesota to make the tourney... And, we know they didn't. However, had they not lost their quarterfinal to AA, they would have been in anyway, because so many little things fell their way.

PWR is a very complex calculation, and teams are tightly bunched....