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2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

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  • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

    Originally posted by Numbers View Post
    And back to the PWR:
    I am using John Whelan's site. http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?krach

    I think I did that right. Anyway, you can input future results there and see the effect they have on PWR, RPI, KRACH...

    So, I tried all the results from Monday night's upcoming games, except shootouts, and in all cases, I found Northern Michigan falling out of the field.

    What is happening???
    Be careful with that site. It doesn't pick up the first three games of the season.

    Paste in
    20111001 LS 1 AH 0 NC
    20111002 LS 1 AH 0 NC
    20111004 Ni 0 Mi 1 NC

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    • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

      Isn't there talk about returning to Campus for a 2 out of 3 round of 16, then a one night super-regional in the East and West before going to the FF?
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      • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

        Originally posted by Hammer View Post
        Someone else should have put a bid on that regional. I know that was the case in 2003, where Michigan had the only bid for that regional.
        Our AD will never host for hockey, and it's *** shame. I can't wait for GDF to leave as the football is imploding with his hiring of Spaz as the coach. I will never set foot in Alumni as long as he is the AD.
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        • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

          Originally posted by Numbers View Post
          And back to the PWR:
          I am using John Whelan's site. http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?krach
          soiuxsports.com usually has a good 'what if' calculator. But I don't think it's up until the playoffs.
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          • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

            Originally posted by Wol4ine View Post
            soiuxsports.com usually has a good 'what if' calculator. But I don't think it's up until the playoffs.
            The What-If is up for the regular season, but they haven't added a CCHA section since they went to the 3 point system. So its kind of useless.
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            • Originally posted by Priceless View Post
              Money?

              We have this discussion every year. If I'm a casual hockey fan ......
              This is like saying "I am a casual lacross fan". Or "casual women's soccer fan". Or "every once in a while I leave my wife and go get butt sex from a guy".

              Few and far between in the general population.

              WE like the sport. But WE are small. WE are even smaller as fans of college teams participating in the sport.

              Which is fine.

              But it breeds situations and issues like this.

              We deal with it. Whatever.

              But to think we could have full house neutral sites for regionals like basketball is silly. Even in "hockey cities".

              That being said, it is still preferable to having a host school play a regional in their own bldg banged out with their own fans.

              I've no perfect solution. Nobody else seems to either.
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              • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                Originally posted by NMU8405 View Post
                The What-If is up for the regular season, but they haven't added a CCHA section since they went to the 3 point system. So its kind of useless.
                The shootouts mean nothing to the NCAA standings and PairWise Rankings. In the big picture, they are irrelevent.
                "The use of common sense and logic will not be tolerated and may result in fine and/or suspension."- Western Professional Hockey League By-laws. 1999-2000.

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                • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                  Thanks. I tried that, but it seems to be for the purpose of seeing conference results. We of course are more interested in PWR here. Did I miss a page there on siouxsports?

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                  • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                    Originally posted by mookie1995 View Post
                    I've no perfect solution. Nobody else seems to either.
                    Well, if you want the first two rounds to take two weekends instead of one, you have teams 1-8 host best-of-threes on their home rinks with the winners advancing to a couple of single-elimination regionals. The downside of this is it would eliminate that off weekend between regionals and the Frozen Four. However, the atmosphere would certainly be better - at least for the first round (whether or not we want to reward teams with home ice using the flawed pairwise is another matter entirely).

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                    • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                      Personally I like the tournament as single eliminaton at "neutral sites". When looking at regionals since the tournament went to its current format it seems like Worcester and Manchester should rotate hosting the Northeast, Albany and Bridgeport the East, Grand Rapids and Green Bay the Midwest and St. Paul and somewhere else there was no one clear. I would keep those as the regional sites and dump the "host school tags" a one seed should not get punished because a conference school is an at large 4 seed and a host i.e. BC last year going to St Louis and UNH staying at home despite being the 13 seed overall
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                      • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                        Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                        Thanks. I tried that, but it seems to be for the purpose of seeing conference results. We of course are more interested in PWR here. Did I miss a page there on siouxsports?
                        I think SS only has the What-If calculators for the regular season. This site and College Hockey News put up pairwise calculators, but only after the opening rounds of each conference playoff are finished.

                        I don't think there is an ideal solution to creating both a great tournament environment AND having the system fair to all teams given the somewhat flawed system we have to select and seed the field. I wish the NCAA would stop trying to serve the two interests. I don't like the idea of trying to place the teams sort of in a strict 1-16, 2-15, 8-9 etc model, but allowing for SOME tweaking (host teams, avoiding intra conference games, "tournament atmosphere"). Either place them strictly based on their seed, or place them geographically.

                        We already place the #1 seeds closest to home in order of their seed. Why not do this with all 16 teams? You will likely end up having the majority of teams as close to home as possible, which would help with atmosphere and attendance.

                        We allow for some movement within the seeding bands. Why not just do it with all of them? You will still have a "1" seed playing a "4" seed this way. It may punish an overall #1 by having them play a team seeded higher than 16 to open the tournament, but then it may aid them later on by giving them a potentially easier team to beat to go to the FF or to win it all. And since we do the tweaking I mentioned already, we often see teams play a game against a seed that doesn't follow the strict 1-16, 8-9 model at any point during the tourney.

                        edited to add that I would also be in favor of re-seeding the FF in this scenario. I believe they place the field now with the assumption that all the #1 seeds advance to the FF and in that circumstance, 1 overall will play 4 and 2 will play 3. In this model, just re-seed as needed to reward the highest seeded team.
                        Last edited by WeAreNDHockey; 02-06-2012, 11:47 AM.

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                        • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                          Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                          Thanks. I tried that, but it seems to be for the purpose of seeing conference results. We of course are more interested in PWR here. Did I miss a page there on siouxsports?
                          Nope, SiouxSports has never bothered with a PWR calculator because I've always thought Whelan had a perfectly good one. His isn't the most user-friendly thing in the world, but given that it's targeted toward a pretty sophisticated audience, I've always thought it appropriate. Instead I've tried to fill in around the edges for amateur PWR analysts with things like the RPI details, PWR details, and forecasts from the PWR simulator.

                          Is there something else you'd like to see that would help you with your own analysis of the PWR?

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                          • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                            Thanks Jim. The problem we have here is that Whelan's site is great. However, this year there are 3 games not include in the script, and it makes everything come out wrong. I sent him an email a few years ago, when I was first understanding what KRACH actually does, and he replied. But, he didn't respond to me this year when I had another question. So, I don't know how to get him to rectify it.

                            i should clarify. His calculator works correctly when using the "use actual game scores" button. But, the "user defined setting" or whatever he calls that, where you input your own scores, doesn't have those 3 games. Thanks again.

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                            • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                              Originally posted by JimDahl View Post
                              Nope, SiouxSports has never bothered with a PWR calculator because I've always thought Whelan had a perfectly good one. His isn't the most user-friendly thing in the world, but given that it's targeted toward a pretty sophisticated audience, I've always thought it appropriate. Instead I've tried to fill in around the edges for amateur PWR analysts with things like the RPI details, PWR details, and forecasts from the PWR simulator.

                              Is there something else you'd like to see that would help you with your own analysis of the PWR?
                              Hey Jim, if you want to go bigger talk to me... I've floated out a certain idea more than a few times... would love to make it work but its a little intensive. If you're crazy enough we could try to make it work... at least from the point of the HEA quarterfinals on out.

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                              • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                                Going into this weekend, this is what I came up with:

                                Worcester:

                                1. BU
                                2. Merrimack
                                3. Union
                                4. Northern Michigan

                                Bridgeport:

                                1. UML
                                2. BC
                                3. Notre Dame
                                4. Michigan State

                                Green Bay:

                                1. Michigan
                                2. UMD
                                3. Ohio State
                                4. Air Force

                                St. Paul:

                                1. Ferris State
                                2. Minnesota
                                3. Maine
                                4. North Dakota

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