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2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

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  • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

    I love how UMD stayed number 1 despite having their worst weekend of the year
    tUMD Hockey

    "And there is a banana running around the DECC." "Well you don't see that every day..."

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    • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

      Through Sunday's games:

      1 Minn-Duluth (WC) 32 0.5620
      2 Boston Univ (HE) 31 0.5611
      3 Mass-Lowell (HE) 30 0.5584
      4 Ferris State (CC) 28 0.5566
      5 Boston Coll (HE) 26 0.5569
      6 Merrimack (HE) 26 0.5539
      7 Ohio State (CC) 26 0.5503
      8 Michigan (CC) 25 0.5562
      9 Minnesota (WC) 23 0.5513
      10 Maine (HE) 22 0.5489
      11 Miami (CC) 22 0.5426
      12 Notre Dame (CC) 21 0.5481
      13 Northern Mich (CC) 20 0.5478
      14 Denver U (WC) 19 0.5361
      15 Union (EC) 19 0.5303

      Code:
      Bridgeport	Worcester	St. Paul		Green Bay
      Lowell		BU		Minn-Duluth		Ferris St
      Merrimack	Ohio State	Michigan		Boston College
      Miami		Maine		Minnesota		Notre Dame
      Northern Mich	Union		AHA Champ		Denver
      The only change is flipping NMU and Denver to avoid the CCHA game in the first round, but that's not mandatory given the 6 teams the CCHA gets into the tournament.

      Just outside the top 15:
      16 North Dakota (WC) 18 0.5378
      17 CO College (WC) 16 0.5310
      18 Western Mich (CC) 15 0.5331
      19 Cornell (EC) 15 0.5311


      And the TUC line:

      Code:
      Bemidji State	0.5046
      Michigan Tech	0.5039
      RIT	        0.5031
      Providence	0.5013
      AK-Fairbanks	0.5005
      ---
      St Cloud	0.4968
      New Hampshire	0.4928

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      • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

        College Hockey Weekly has their Bracketology up for this week...

        http://www.collegehockeyweekly.com/C..._Pairwise.html

        Also, here is their forecast of what the tournament will look like...

        http://www.collegehockeyweekly.com/T...-Forecast.html
        North Dakota
        National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

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        • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

          Originally posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post
          College Hockey Weekly has their Bracketology up for this week...

          http://www.collegehockeyweekly.com/C..._Pairwise.html

          Also, here is their forecast of what the tournament will look like...

          http://www.collegehockeyweekly.com/T...-Forecast.html
          What is their forcast based on? I like what their prediction is!
          tUMD Hockey

          "And there is a banana running around the DECC." "Well you don't see that every day..."

          Comment


          • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

            This is great work. I think NCAA hockey needs to eliminate or at least put on the back-burner, weekly polls after the end of January. Why? It's now all about PairWise and conference tournaments. A team ranked 10 may be 20 in the PairWise. Who cares about the media popularity contest when you have the PairWise for better or worse.

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            • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

              Originally posted by Biddco View Post
              What is their forcast based on? I like what their prediction is!
              The forecast is basically a ballot type system from the 8 contributors to CHW (myself included). Each of the 8 are asked to list their four #1 seeds, four #2 seeds, four #3 seeds, and four #4 seeds, and submit it in. Each team that is voted as a #1 seed receives four points (3 for #2 seed, 2 for #3 seed and 1 for #4 seed), and the 8 ballots are added up. The teams are then ranked #1-16, and so long as there is at least 1 team from each of the five conferences, they are then seeded using the logic that we use for the current pairwise (i.e. bracket integrity, maximize attendance, fewest flights).

              Here was my ballot for this week's forecast:
              #1 seeds: Duluth, Michigan, BU, Notre Dame
              #2 seeds: Minnesota, Lowell, BC, Ohio State
              #3 seeds: Merrimack, Union, Denver, Miami
              #4 seeds: Colorado College, Ferris State, Maine, RIT
              North Dakota
              National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

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              • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                Originally posted by RamboWildcat View Post
                This is great work. I think NCAA hockey needs to eliminate or at least put on the back-burner, weekly polls after the end of January. Why? It's now all about PairWise and conference tournaments. A team ranked 10 may be 20 in the PairWise. Who cares about the media popularity contest when you have the PairWise for better or worse.
                The Pairwise is incredibly volatile, and few people understand it. Just listen when some talking head on a TV or radio broadcast tries to explain the pairwise. It may as well be Quantum Physics. Polls are easy to understand and they make the people who vote in them feel important. Since those people are the people who report on the sport, the popularity contest will continue.

                But yes, it would be nice if the polls went away and more people took the time to understand the pairwise.

                Comment


                • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                  Originally posted by Priceless View Post
                  The Pairwise is incredibly volatile, and few people understand it. Just listen when some talking head on a TV or radio broadcast tries to explain the pairwise. It may as well be Quantum Physics. Polls are easy to understand and they make the people who vote in them feel important. Since those people are the people who report on the sport, the popularity contest will continue.

                  But yes, it would be nice if the polls went away and more people took the time to understand the pairwise.
                  AMEN!! Wait til the rankings come out tomorrow and see how many Gopher fans wont undersatnd why the team is ranked so high in the polls and still 8-9 in the Pairwise. I've already tried to explain it a few times to some younger fans. (not to be ripping on my Goph bretheren, I just feel it coming).

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                  • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                    Originally posted by Priceless View Post
                    The Pairwise is incredibly volatile, and few people understand it. Just listen when some talking head on a TV or radio broadcast tries to explain the pairwise. It may as well be Quantum Physics. Polls are easy to understand and they make the people who vote in them feel important. Since those people are the people who report on the sport, the popularity contest will continue.

                    But yes, it would be nice if the polls went away and more people took the time to understand the pairwise.
                    In an ideal world I would have built a functional simulator (akin to baseball prospectus and other websites)... I think it'd say a lot about what will or could happen. Biggest issue is conference tie-breakers.

                    Polls are for entertainment purposes only... but that's true even in the other college sports (save BCS)... hockey is still regionalized and its based on guesses from scores than straight evaluations.

                    ----

                    I've been evaluating my school versus the 15th or 16th best RPI to see what'd take to fall out... losses above the cut-off... needed record at 36 games (for Lowell its 33+3 playoff), etc. ignoring SOS calculations (resulting from future games... that is take SOS and SOSOS at the current value). For Lowell, I figure we need to finish at .600. Obviously that doesn't include anything related to CoP or TUC items so it is far from ironclad, but it gives me a decent idea of what's going on. A simulator would still be much more revealing.

                    edit: the other interesting thing to say is not only is the pairwise volatile... but the teams are really bunched together this season... I think there's less than 10 teams with 10 losses or loss equivalents (loss+.5tie).
                    Last edited by Patman; 01-29-2012, 10:29 PM.
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                    • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                      Originally posted by Biddco View Post
                      What is their forcast based on? I like what their prediction is!
                      I do not... Just keep Lowell in the Eastern timezone.

                      Comment


                      • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                        I wish three things.

                        That the polls would go away.

                        That the PWR weren't even calculable until the end of the season, which is the only time it has any meaning. That every team went into their conference championships thinking they might not make it.

                        That there were enough inter-conference games that the PWR (or whatever they use) were not based on a small sample size, and (kind of a chicken and egg) that whatever system they used didn't discourage inter-conference games.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post
                          The forecast is basically a ballot type system from the 8 contributors to CHW (myself included). Each of the 8 are asked to list their four #1 seeds, four #2 seeds, four #3 seeds, and four #4 seeds, and submit it in. Each team that is voted as a #1 seed receives four points (3 for #2 seed, 2 for #3 seed and 1 for #4 seed), and the 8 ballots are added up. The teams are then ranked #1-16, and so long as there is at least 1 team from each of the five conferences, they are then seeded using the logic that we use for the current pairwise (i.e. bracket integrity, maximize attendance, fewest flights).

                          Here was my ballot for this week's forecast:
                          #1 seeds: Duluth, Michigan, BU, Notre Dame
                          #2 seeds: Minnesota, Lowell, BC, Ohio State
                          #3 seeds: Merrimack, Union, Denver, Miami
                          #4 seeds: Colorado College, Ferris State, Maine, RIT
                          I like it

                          Comment


                          • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                            Originally posted by CLS View Post
                            I wish three things.

                            That the polls would go away.

                            That the PWR weren't even calculable until the end of the season, which is the only time it has any meaning. That every team went into their conference championships thinking they might not make it.

                            That there were enough inter-conference games that the PWR (or whatever they use) were not based on a small sample size, and (kind of a chicken and egg) that whatever system they used didn't discourage inter-conference games.
                            And I wish money grew on trees - oh, and I want a pony too!


                            Comment


                            • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                              Originally posted by goldy_331 View Post
                              And I wish money grew on trees - oh, and I want a pony too!


                              I want a peanut butter and jelly sandwich.

                              Who do you think gets what they want first?

                              Comment


                              • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                                Originally posted by Priceless View Post
                                Who do you think gets what they want first?
                                I bet it isn't CLS.

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