Patty Kaz 2012

[PrincetonFan]

Now that we're heading into the break, I thought I'd start a thread for this season's Patty Kazmaier trophy. Bailey Bram, Hilary Knight, Brooke Ammerman, Brianna Decker, Amanda Kessel, or one of the Lamoureuxs? Who will it be this year?

[brookyone]

Re: Patty Kaz 2012

Jen Schoullis. Great on ice leader. A second half like her first half should have her in the mix.

[MICZamboni]

Re: Patty Kaz 2012

All the names mentioned would deserve the Patty Kaz if they win it. I will put in my observations for Bailey Bram of Mercyhurst.

Keep in mind, the second half of Mercyhurst's schedule is easier than the first half so these stats may/should/will/hopefully get even better.

First in Div 1 in Points per game with 2.50. She has 18 goals with 22 assists and 40 points.
Third in Div 1 in Goals per game with 1.12
Fourth in Div 1 in Assists per game with 1.38
First in Div 1 in Power Play goals and Power Play goals per game with 9

All this with a much younger and inexperienced team without the likes of Bendus, Agosta, Scanzano etc.
I also realize there is more to winning the Patty Kaz than just the numbers. I just don't know the girls well enough to say she is doing this or that for the community/school/classroom.
Just sayin'

[OnMAA]

Re: Patty Kaz 2012

Now that we're heading into the break, I thought I'd start a thread for this season's Patty Kazmaier trophy. Bailey Bram, Hilary Knight, Brooke Ammerman, Brianna Decker, Amanda Kessel, or one of the Lamoureuxs? Who will it be this year?

No one from the East ????????

Johnson, Jenner, Saulnier from the Big Red ? (Cornell has only played 12 games and all three are running at 2 ppg clip)
Rattray is having a good year at Clarky.!

Don't know as much about HE, but Rookies Carpenter and Coyne are making some waves.

[dave1381]

Re: Patty Kaz 2012

Here are my thoughts. I'll give an early top 10 prediction, and then list off a few other contenders:

Top 10 prediction

WCHA
J. Lam, UND. Jr., F
M. Lam-Kolls, UND, Jr., F/D
Raty, Minnesota, Jr., G
Kessel, Minnesota, So., F
Decker, Wisconsin, Jr., F
Knight, Wisconsin, Sr., F

ECAC
Johnston, Cornell, Sr., F
Fortino, Cornell, Jr., D

Hockey East
Schelling, Northeastern, Sr. G

CHA
Bram, Mercyhurst, Sr., F

Position Distribution
6.5 F, 2 G, 1.5 D

Class Distribution
4 Sr., 5 Jr., 1 So.

-----

Some Thoughts on Other Contenders

Brooke Ammerman, Wisconsin, Sr., F -- will be tough for Wisconsin to get three in the 10. Her scoring edge over Knight is mainly due to nonconference play, while Knight leads the WCHA in goals. I expect it'll be Knight & Decker if Wisconsin only gets two, but Ammerman has clearly had an impressive season.

Schoullis, Minnesota, Sr., F -- same problem with Minnesota, probably Kessel and Raty will get the most votes. Kaz voters do have some tendency to favor upperclassmen, but Kessel probably had better reputation coming into the season.

Other Cornell players -- see Minnesota & Wisconsin discussion, neither of these three teams are quite dominant enough to get 3 in the top 10. Johnston & Fortino have been Cornell's most recognized players in the past, and I see little in this season's results to suggest any different outcome.

Tomcikova, Bemidji, Sr., G -- will be tough to make it in the crowded WCHA. I just don't see the WCHA getting more than 6 of the 10 when each coach gets 1 vote. Will probably get WCHA votes but struggle outside the WCHA.

Irwin, UMD, Sr., F -- UMD's top scorer, so I wouldn't totally count her out, but her stats and UMD's record just don't quite cut it.

Coyne, Northeastern, Fr., F -- may have a shot as Hockey East's top scorer. Schelling is probably Hockey East's best Kaz 10 contender since the goalie competition is less crowded.

[dave1381]

Re: Patty Kaz 2012

Some other Stats of Interest (that aren't so readily available on college hockey stats)

Wisconsin
Decker +44, Ammerman +36, Knight +27
PP Points: Knight 5-9-14, Ammerman 6-6-12, Decker 3-7-10
SH Goals: Knight 3, Ammeran 0, Decker 0

Minnesota
Kessel +31, Schoullis +33
PP Points: Schoullis 5-4-9, Kessel 3-6-9

Mercyhurst
Bram +26
PP Points: Bram 9-9-18 (next best on Mercyhurst 11)

North Dakota
JLam +21, MLamK +21
PP Points: JLam 6-12-18, MLamK 6-6-12
SH goals: MLamK 2

[dave1381]

Re: Patty Kaz 2012

One thing I look for in Kaz candidates is their performance in clutch situations, close games against the best teams. It's absolutely striking how much the top Wisconsin players stand out in this criteria compares to other contenders. I meant this to be a balanced list of all the contenders' clutch performances, but it's really Wisconsin-dominated. Part of this is that Wisconsin gets more chances for these kind of games in the WCHA, but their rate of this kind of standout performance is higher too.

Looking at this list, I think Wisconsin does have a pretty strong case to get Ammerman, Knight, and Decker all in the top 10 (though I can't say which of my 10 predicted below I'd leave out). Also, even though Knight is 3rd on Wisconsin in +/- and points, she is the scoring in the highest-leverage situations, and she's the leading goal-scorer in the WCHA by a wide margin (but note she was kept of the scoreboard in the Minnesota series.) It's a contrast from last season, where Knight was compiling more impressive overall stats but Duggan was scoring the more important points.
------
Notable performances from Wisconsin players

Wisconsin 3, UND 2 (OT)
Ammerman game-tying PP goal in final minute (assist from Knight). Knight game winning goal in overtime.

Minnesota 3, Wisconsin 2
Ammerman 2 goals (both primary assists from Decker) to come back two-goal deficit.

Wisconsin 4, UMD 3
Knight scores shorthanded game-winner in final two minutes. Also put Wisconsin ahead 3-2 late in period 2.

Wisconsin 3, OSU 1
Knight goal (primary assist from Decker) breaks 1-1 deadlock in third period.

Wisconsin 2, OSU 0
Ammerman scores both goals (one primary assist from Decker, one from Knight).

Wisconsin 3-6, Bemidji 1-1
Knight scores PP goal to break 1-1 deadlock in Game 1, and scores a hat trick in Game 2 (scoring 2 of Wisconsins's first 3 goals).

Notable Clutch Scoring from Players from Other Teams

Minnesota 3, Wisconsin 2
Kessel scores game-winning goal (primary assist from Schoullis).

Cornell 5, Mercyhurst 4
Bram has a game-tying PP Goal in 3rd period. Fortino scores the game-winner at 17:30.

Mercyhurst 5, Cornell 2
Bram has three assists, including primary assist on the lasting lead goal.

Mercyhurst 3, BC 2 (OT)
Bram assists on OT game-winner.

[PTS34]

Re: Patty Kaz 2012

Honestly, if Decker doesn't win then there's something wrong with the process. Best player in the NCAA and probably the most complete player in the world. Even if she had half the number of points she does, she'd still be worth considering...she just brings that much to the game.

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Patty Kaz 2012

I'd still vote for Kelli Stack.

[OnMAA]

Re: Patty Kaz 2012

Thanks Dave for your indepth analysis. Great stuff.

[ARM]

Re: Patty Kaz 2012

M. Lam-Kolls, UND, Jr., F/D

If Monique makes it, it should be as a forward with an allowance made for the fact that her points took a hit because she played D to help her team. Strictly as a D, she's not Kaz-caliber, as a forward, she is. By comparison, I'd say that Wong at UMD is a better option as a forward playing D.

Irwin, UMD, Sr., F -- UMD's top scorer, so I wouldn't totally count her out, but her stats and UMD's record just don't quite cut it.

I'd say Wong before Irwin.

Some other Stats of Interest (that aren't so readily available on college hockey stats)

Wisconsin
Decker +44, Ammerman +36, Knight +27

Beware the Lindenwood effect. In two games versus Lindenwood thus far for each: Decker 5-2-7, +9; Ammerman 4-3-7, +7; Knight 4-2-6, +8; Bram 3-6-9, +7. One could say that's what great players do, but Kelly Jaminski was 2-5-7 and +12 in that series, and she has 4 points in her other 18 games.

One thing I look for in Kaz candidates is their performance in clutch situations, close games against the best teams. It's absolutely striking how much the top Wisconsin players stand out in this criteria compares to other contenders. I meant this to be a balanced list of all the contenders' clutch performances, but it's really Wisconsin-dominated.

Partly, it's how you're defining clutch. You have Knight getting a hat trick in a 6-1 win over Bemidji and by that measure, there are a lot more clutch performances out there, such as Schoullis getting 2+2 in the win @UND, Kessel with four assists in a 4-1 win @BSU, Schoullis with 2+1 in a come-from-behind win over UMD. Minnesota has taken an early lead and maintained it in many of their games, so that's why the Kessel goal looks like one of the few meaningful goals. I think that supports Noora's cause, because outside of the win in Madison, when she's had a lead, she hasn't given it back (e.g. vs UMD, @Harvard, OSU). And I could do this for players from other teams, too, I'm just more familiar with those games for UM players.

[dave1381]

Re: Patty Kaz 2012

Thanks ARM. Of course I'm familiar with the Lindenwood effect having known the Union effect in the past.

I thought the +/- numbers were more interesting to compare players within the same team than across teams.

You're right that I didn't do a thorough enough analysis of players' scoring in blowout games between top teams. Thanks for the Minnesota analysis.

You say you could do the same for other players, but really you can't to the same extent, simply because Minnesota & Wisconsin have been the most successful teams. For example, Rebecca Johnston's resume is going to be thin because she missed Harvard/Dartmouth, BU's been a bust, and Cornell split the Mercyhurst series.

[ARM]

Re: Patty Kaz 2012

You say you could do the same for other players, but really you can't to the same extent, simply because Minnesota & Wisconsin have been the most successful teams. For example, Rebecca Johnston's resume is going to be thin because she missed Harvard/Dartmouth, BU's been a bust, and Cornell split the Mercyhurst series.

Players for the Ivy's are always at a disadvantage at this stage, because they've had less games relative to the rest. So we wind up comparing their resumes with players with twice as many outings. For example, you mentioned Fortino. Megan Bozek for Minnesota has the exact same points per game ratio, but has played twice as many games and has more goals in her point distribution, plus she plays for a team with better defensive numbers. I'd agree that Fortino has a better chance of making the top ten, but it really at that point has zero to do with performance and is all about what league and team that you're on. Because if you and I work at the same rate, but you work twice as long, you'd scratch your head as to why I was rewarded and you weren't. Okay, you might also wonder why your company hired me in the first place.

[PrincetonFan]

Re: Patty Kaz 2012

Hockey East
Schelling, Northeastern, Sr. G

I question Schelling only because I saw her get lit up by Princeton. Why not Rigsby instead? Because of conference representation?

[NUWH DogHouse]

Re: Patty Kaz 2012

I question Schelling only because I saw her get lit up by Princeton. Why not Rigsby instead? Because of conference representation?

She had a bad game. She has had plenty of other performances where she stole the game. Have none of the forwards on the list had a game where they were off and didn't score as well? Have the defenders never had a bad +/- game?

I think Schelling has to be considered she was top 10 in the past and has only looked better. Coyne is good but not Kazmier good yet, she will be though I feel.