Patty Kaz 2012

[mattj711]

Re: Patty Kaz 2012

Maybe she was just the first one to get the memo titled, "Report to Team Canada Training Camp in Ithaca, NY."

As long as the memo keeps circulating, you won't hear any complaints out of me!

[EastFan1]

Re: Patty Kaz 2012

My original thought was that four Gophers were deserving of nominations to the list of 25 or whatever it is: Räty, Kessel, Schoullis, and Bozek. Of those, only Bozek had a strong January in terms of being consistent, and she didn't put up numbers. Voters don't care about the number of times that she erases a teammate's mistake, wins a puck battle, or lugs the puck out of danger, so she'll likely fare better for something like WCHA DPotY than the Kaz voting. I'd say Räty still deserves top 10, because without her, Minnesota would be BU. However, I won't be entirely shocked if the Gophers are ignored.

I can't see her winning it, in part because she isn't yet Jessie Vetter, and Vetter didn't generate serious buzz until she was a senior. I wouldn't rule out the top three, though.

Maybe she was just the first one to get the memo titled, "Report to Team Canada Training Camp in Ithaca, NY."

Handful of goalies with similar save percentages as Raty but undoubtedly facing higher quality shots then those allowed by the Minnesota D.

[dave1381]

Re: Patty Kaz 2012

I can't see her winning it, in part because she isn't yet Jessie Vetter

which is why I would've initially thought she didn't have a shot.

and Vetter didn't generate serious buzz until she was a senior.

True, but there are reasons for that. Vetter's junior year in 07-08 was clearly Wisconsin's least successful during her tenure, while Kim Martin was outstanding. During Vetter's sophomore year of 06-07, she was still splitting time with Dufour, and she was teammate's with the previous season's Kaz winner who continued to be outstanding.

The reason I think Rigsby has a shot is that I don't think any of the forward candidates stand out in particular, while Rigsby has posted a .950 save pct. in the WCHA, and the next best candidate is Raty at .934. That's pretty remarkable. I'm not sure full time goalies have come close to posting a .950 save pct in the wcha -- I recall that Kim Martin season I mentioned was .948. Vetter was .942 her Kaz year.

[ARM]

Re: Patty Kaz 2012

The reason I think Rigsby has a shot is that I don't think any of the forward candidates stand out in particular, while Rigsby has posted a .950 save pct. in the WCHA, and the next best candidate is Raty at .934. That's pretty remarkable. I'm not sure full time goalies have come close to posting a .950 save pct in the wcha -- I recall that Kim Martin season I mentioned was .948. Vetter was .942 her Kaz year.

Räty was .962 as a rookie, although that was an Olympic year where the talent is down. I don't say you're wrong about Rigsby, but if I ask people to talk about Wisconsin, how many will mention her before Decker and Knight? What you said about Bauer overshadowing Vetter applies, because Vetter put up a rather attention-grabbing NCAA run as a rookie, which Rigsby didn't quite match. I can see maybe top 3, but not winning.

[dave1381]

Re: Patty Kaz 2012

Räty was .962 as a rookie, although that was an Olympic year where the talent is down. I don't say you're wrong about Rigsby, but if I ask people to talk about Wisconsin, how many will mention her before Decker and Knight?

Agreed, but I think Rigsby has a shot once someone sits down and look at what she has actually accomplished, which a Kaz committee would do. I would give Rigsby less of a chance if the Kaz were decided by a wider body of voters who do not interact with each other, such as the Heisman or the baseball MVPs.

What you said about Bauer overshadowing Vetter applies, because Vetter put up a rather attention-grabbing NCAA run as a rookie, which Rigsby didn't quite match. I can see maybe top 3, but not winning.

While I agree Rigsby did not have the same kind of tournament that Vetter had freshman year, I think Rigsby has a better shot to win the Kaz her sophomore year because (1) Rigsby is not splitting time like Vetter back then, and (2) When Bauer overshadowed Vetter in 06-07, Bauer was the leading scorer on the Badgers by 20 points: this season none of the Badger forwards have distinguished themselves to that degree.

I agree the Decker is probably more likely to win than Rigsby, but I don't agree you can immediately discount Rigsby's chances of winning based on Vetter's Kaz history.

[northhockey]

Re: Patty Kaz 2012

My case for JLam is getting stronger every game!!

[dave1381]

Re: Patty Kaz 2012

My case for JLam is getting stronger every game!!

Yes, though I think she needs to make a big impact in the remaining 2 or 3 games against Minnesota to have a shot at winning. She's surely a top 3 favorite at the moment.

[dave1381]

Re: Patty Kaz 2012

Brad S. from the Herald makes the following comment on the Lams:

Obviously, postseason awards are coming their way. This is where it gets interesting. What does UND do about the Patty Kazmaier (women’s equivalent to Hobey Baker)? They are arguably the top two candidates at this time, but could split votes, leading to another winner. Do you nominate just one? And if so, how do you choose which one? Or do you go with both and hope one wins it? I will write more about this dilemma for Friday’s paper.

We've discussed this vote-splitting issue in these threads in the past. From the comments thread on the link above:

Brad, maybe you’ll get into this more on Friday, but most recent Kazmaier winners have come from top teams with 2 or 3 players in the top 10, so coaches generally have not suppressed nominations for fear of splitting votes among teammates.

Why is that? A big difference between the Kazmaier and baseball MVP voting, where vote-splitting is a common problem, is that Kazmaier coaches have the opportunity to submit a one paragraph endorsement to the committee. A wise coach will always use that paragraph to signal which nominee from the team is most deserving of the award. The preferred finalist will be described in terms of leadership and other Kazmaier criteria. The other finalists will be described in terms of mere offensive or defensive contributions. No one wins the award without the clear endorsement from the coach.

All that said, we’re still back to a question similar to the one you originally posed: which of the Lamoureux twins should Brian Idalski endorse to the committee? This is probably one of the tougher decision a coach has ever had to make in the Kazmaier process. I will be interested to see what you write on Friday.

One other thought: a statistic fans do not see in the Kazmaier voting process is GPA. Large differences in GPA can matter when there’s little else to distinguish the talent: strong GPAs certainly helped Sara Bauer and Vicki Bendus in the past. The GPA could be an important statistic in choosing which twin to endorse for the award. Both twins were 2010-11 WCHA scholar athletes, which means they both had GPAs over 3.50 as of last year.

[dave1381]

Re: Patty Kaz 2012

To add, I don't think any of the other top Kaz candidates have earned league all-Academic honors like the Lams did last year. That could make a huge difference in the outcome in a year like this whn there are a number of solid candidates and it's harder to distinguish them from on-ice performance.

[dave1381]

Re: Patty Kaz 2012

JLam is now No. 1 in the country in per game scoring.

Bram being kept off the scoreboard in a loss against Cornell tonight hurts her chances.

Schelling's candidacy is looking stronger as she maintains a .940+ save pct. and Northeastern has a good shot at the Hockey East titles.

[dave1381]

Re: Patty Kaz 2012

Handful of goalies with similar save percentages as Raty but undoubtedly facing higher quality shots then those allowed by the Minnesota D.

So if you compare Raty, Rigsby, and Schelling, they all have GAA around 1.50, and similar save pct. though Raty trails the others by a noticeable amount.

You do need to consider that Schelling is facing much weaker competition. Even the toughest Hockey East rivals BU & BC are in the middle of the pack nationally scoring -- it's not impressive holding these teams to three goals. So even though they all have similar GAAs, Raty and Rigsby's GAAs are clearly far more impressive. One measure says that if these teams played league average schedules, Minnesota & Wisconsin would allow about 1 goal per game and Northeastern closer to 2.

Now you can argue that Minnesota and Wisconsin have stronger D than Northeastern, so maybe that negates that difference to some degree, but I think it's hard to be a Kaz winning goalie without a more clear cut case, and that'll make it tough for Schelling to win.

[ARM]

Re: Patty Kaz 2012

Now you can argue that Minnesota and Wisconsin have stronger D than Northeastern, so maybe that negates that difference to some degree, but I think it's hard to be a Kaz winning goalie without a more clear cut case, and that'll make it tough for Schelling to win.

I do think that Schelling benefits from a couple intangibles. Northeastern is having a much-improved season, the team's best in many years. Plus, in any NU game that I've watched where she has played, it is pretty obvious that she is in the team's top two players for that particular game, not just overall. The Lams are similar in that regard, but because of the presence of Karvinen, games exist where one of them may slide to third.

Goalies are so difficult to compare to skaters, and even to other goaltenders, because the task can vary so much with supporting cast and opponent. It's like comparing the answers from two physics experiments without any units, so for all we know, we're comparing ohms to grams.

[dave1381]

Re: Patty Kaz 2012

I do think that Schelling benefits from a couple intangibles. Northeastern is having a much-improved season, the team's best in many years. Plus, in any NU game that I've watched where she has played, it is pretty obvious that she is in the team's top two players for that particular game, not just overall. The Lams are similar in that regard, but because of the presence of Karvinen, games exist where one of them may slide to third.

Agreed, and that helps Schelling relative to Rigsby or Raty. The Lams also benefit from leading a program to its best season ever.

Goalies are so difficult to compare to skaters, and even to other goaltenders, because the task can vary so much with supporting cast and opponent. It's like comparing the answers from two physics experiments without any units, so for all we know, we're comparing ohms to grams.

Sure, it's hard, and pick an award winner is a social science, not a physical science.

Schelling probably has a shot, but I do think Northeastern needs to win both Hockey East titles, and she needs to have a dominant performance in the tournament. But it's probably the Lams who most control their own destiny, since they're in the toughest league, facing one of nation's three toughest goalies two or three more times before the voting.

[dave1381]

Re: Patty Kaz 2012

Some perspective:

Northeastern, in the 4 seasons before Schelling
07-08: 7-24-3
06-07: 5-26-2
05-06: 8-24-1
04-05: 3-25-4

Cornell, in the 4 seasons before Johnston
06-07: 4-23-2
05-06: 9-18-1
04-05: 3-22-3
03-04: 7-21-2

North Dakota, in the 4 seasons before the Lams
09-10: 8-22-4
08-09: 13-19-4
07-08: 4-26-6
06-07: 3-31-2

Not doing this to compare candidates, just beginning to describe what kind of impact this year's top candidates have made on their programs.

Also interesting that five yeas ago, Cornell/Northeastern/North Dakota hhad 12 wins TOTAL between the three programs. This year it's 58 and counting.

[ARM]

Re: Patty Kaz 2012

Not doing this to compare candidates, just beginning to describe what kind of impact this year's top candidates have made on their programs.

Should voters consider that to any degree at all? Obviously, it's not part of the published criteria and you're not saying that they should, but if they were to look at influence on a program, how does one separate Rebecca Johnston impact from Doug Derraugh impact, or the Lams versus Brian Idalski? Given Cornell made the title game in 2010 while Johnston was away, she may have helped shape the current roster, but one can't make any claim that the Big Red would be a bad team were she removed.

Does Johnston have the total numbers to be in the discussion to win the award? Her numbers almost exactly match those of Carolyne Prévost, and while Prévost is surrounded by talent, so is Johnston. Prévost doesn't take the "weak opponents" hit that some do, because she didn't play versus Lindenwood. So given they have the same number of games, same number of assists, and Prévost has one more goal, it is tough from here to see how if one performed a pairwise ranking of players that Johnson would win a comparison with Prévost. IMO, that should be a push. I realize that Johnston will get far more votes, because East voters need someone to love, but that doesn't really speak to merit.