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2011-12 DI Rutter Computer Rankings

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  • 2011-12 DI Rutter Computer Rankings

    Since the season started this past weekend with a pair of non-conference games, the Rutter Computer rankings are online for 2011-2012. You can find them here:

    http://math.bd.psu.edu/faculty/rutte...sRankings.html

    My ranking system is Bayesian, therefore prior information is used. In this case, the prior is the rating of each team at the end of last season, prior to the NCAA tourney. By using a prior, rankings are possible early in the season. Lindenwood, as they are a new team, started with a rating of 0. After losing two games to Wisconsin, their rating dropped to -.52. As teams play more games, the impact of the prior decreases.

  • #2
    Re: 2011-12 DI Rutter Computer Rankings

    Originally posted by LakersFan View Post
    Lindenwood, as they are a new team, started with a rating of 0. After losing two games to Wisconsin, their rating dropped to -.52.
    Well, it's a good thing that they are meeting Mankato to decide once and for all which team really belongs in that coveted #26 spot. No? Maybe #6 vs #7 and #10 vs #11 do offer a little more intrigue.
    "... And lose, and start again at your beginnings
    And never breathe a word about your loss;" -- Rudyard Kipling

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: 2011-12 DI Rutter Computer Rankings

      Rankings for games played through 10/2/2011

      Code:
      Rank	Team		Rating
      1 	Wisconsin 	2.0277 	
      2 	Minnesota 	1.5326 	
      3 	Cornell 	1.4434 	
      4 	UMD	 	1.0850 	
      5 	BU	 	0.7580 	
      6 	Mercyhurst 	0.7517 	
      7 	North Dakota 	0.7284 	
      8 	Boston College 	0.6569 	
      9 	Bemidji State 	0.5670 	
      10 	New Hampshire 	0.5626
      Still very early, so Quinnipiac does not move much based on a split with Mercyhurst.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: 2011-12 DI Rutter Computer Rankings

        Originally posted by LakersFan View Post
        Still very early, so Quinnipiac does not move much based on a split with Mercyhurst.
        New Hampshire seemed to get a lot of mileage out of a sweep of Niagara. I imagine the bottom line is that the Wildcats are still unbeaten, therefore wins over a lesser-ranked teams can vault them higher than the Bobcats' split with a top-10 team.
        "... And lose, and start again at your beginnings
        And never breathe a word about your loss;" -- Rudyard Kipling

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: 2011-12 DI Rutter Computer Rankings

          Originally posted by ARM View Post
          New Hampshire seemed to get a lot of mileage out of a sweep of Niagara. I imagine the bottom line is that the Wildcats are still unbeaten, therefore wins over a lesser-ranked teams can vault them higher than the Bobcats' split with a top-10 team.
          Only two games have been played, so unless you split with with Wisconsin, two wins will always be better than a win and a loss. If there was no prior, Quinnipiac and Mercyhurst would be tied, but Mercyhurst was rated higher last year, so they are still higher than Quinnipiac. If Quinnipiac and Mercyhurst are truly equal, their ratings will converge to the same value, assuming they play similar schedules (in terms of strength of opponents) and a large number of games. They likely will play different schedules however, and by end of the season we will see who benefits more from the split.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: 2011-12 DI Rutter Computer Rankings

            For games played through October 9, 2011

            And Maine vaults into the top 10!

            Code:
              	Team 		Rating 	
            1 	Wisconsin 	2.3774 
            2 	Minnesota 	1.6631 	
            3 	Cornell 	1.4399 	
            4 	UMD	 	0.9286 	
            5 	Northeastern 	0.8997 	
            6 	Maine 		0.8913 
            7 	Boston College 	0.8101 	
            8 	Boston Univ. 	0.7928 	
            9 	North Dakota 	0.5640 	
            10 	Ohio State 	0.5448

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: 2011-12 DI Rutter Computer Rankings

              Originally posted by LakersFan View Post
              And Maine vaults into the top 10!.....

              ....6 Maine 0.8913
              That must be a first. Way to go Bears. (like that saying )

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: 2011-12 DI Rutter Computer Rankings

                Rankings for games played through October 16, 2011. Wiscosin drops a little, and Maine was in the top 10 for only a week.

                Code:
                  	Team 		Rating 	
                1 	Wisconsin 	2.1585 	
                2 	Minnesota 	1.8359 	
                3 	Cornell 	1.4488 
                4 	UMD	 	1.1203 	
                5 	Boston Univ. 	1.0596 	
                6 	Northeastern 	1.0347 	
                7 	Boston College 	0.9026 	
                8 	Ohio State 	0.8879 	
                9 	North Dakota 	0.8201 	
                10 	Bemidji State 	0.6138
                By the way, I just had an article about ranking Women's College Hockey teams published by Chance Magazine, not available at your local book store. You can find it here: http://chance.amstat.org/2011/09/ranking-womens-hockey/. If you would like more information, please send me an email. You can find contact info at my webpage: http://math.bd.psu.edu/faculty/rutter/. And, no, I do not know who the women in the picture from the article is.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: 2011-12 DI Rutter Computer Rankings

                  LakersFan: the link seems to only get you to a page that gives the first couple sentences of the article in "Chance". How can I get the whole thing? BTW, as a womens college hockey fan and a stats geek, I have followed your work since you first started posting and hope you'll keep developing it.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: 2011-12 DI Rutter Computer Rankings

                    Originally posted by hab View Post
                    LakersFan: the link seems to only get you to a page that gives the first couple sentences of the article in "Chance". How can I get the whole thing? BTW, as a womens college hockey fan and a stats geek, I have followed your work since you first started posting and hope you'll keep developing it.
                    Hab, send me an email I will see about getting you a copy of the paper. My webpage has my address.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: 2011-12 DI Rutter Computer Rankings

                      For games played through October 23, 2011

                      Code:
                      	Team 		Rating 	
                      1 	Wisconsin 	2.5469 
                      2 	Minnesota 	2.1348 	
                      3 	Cornell 	1.4443 	
                      4 	North Dakota 	1.2607 	
                      5 	Boston Univ. 	1.1757 	
                      6 	UMD		1.0076 	
                      7 	Boston College 	1.0033 	
                      8 	Northeastern 	0.4813 
                      9 	Bemidji State 	0.4418 	
                      10 	Mercyhurst 	0.4260

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: 2011-12 DI Rutter Computer Rankings

                        For games played through October 30, 2011
                        Code:
                          	Team 	Rating 	
                        1 	Wisconsin 	2.4624 	
                        2 	Cornell 	1.7077 	
                        3 	Minnesota 	1.6576 	
                        4 	Harvard 	1.1498 	
                        5 	UMD		1.1257 	
                        6 	North Dakota 	1.0533 	
                        7 	Boston Univ. 	0.8999 
                        8 	Bemidji State 	0.8057 	
                        9 	Boston College 	0.7866 
                        10 	Ohio State 	0.7648

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: 2011-12 DI Rutter Computer Rankings

                          Curious what others are think, but I am wondering if women's D1 hockey is just a bad fit form this concept. This ranking seems extremely inaccurate. Here are a couple of examples in my opinion. 1st, does anyone really think Harvard should be number 4 on any list. Their Thanksgiving weekend series with Minny should confirm that. 2nd, Ohio State get smoked by UND twice and then squeaks by Mankato and they somehow jump up to number 10 on this list, seriously. 3rd and less glaring is the impact on Minnesota and BSU. Anyone else have an opinion?

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: 2011-12 DI Rutter Computer Rankings

                            Originally posted by granddaddyscout View Post
                            Curious what others are think, but I am wondering if women's D1 hockey is just a bad fit form this concept. This ranking seems extremely inaccurate. Here are a couple of examples in my opinion. 1st, does anyone really think Harvard should be number 4 on any list. Their Thanksgiving weekend series with Minny should confirm that. 2nd, Ohio State get smoked by UND twice and then squeaks by Mankato and they somehow jump up to number 10 on this list, seriously. 3rd and less glaring is the impact on Minnesota and BSU. Anyone else have an opinion?
                            Regarding Harvard, they've only played two games, so it is tough to conclude a ton from those games, especially as one went to OT. I saw Harvard versus Minnesota a year ago, and the difference between the two teams was goaltending, particularly in the second game. They are a very fast team that gave Minnesota problems at times. I won't be surprised if they get points off of Minnesota on their home ice. Two years ago, the Gophers didn't score in two games at Bright. Regarding OSU, remember that they had a win and tie versus BSU, so the Beavers' win over UM probably helped the Buckeyes. These rankings don't care about margin, so a win is a win, and the Buckeyes' wins over MSU look as good as the Gophers' and much better than Mercyhurst's split.
                            "... And lose, and start again at your beginnings
                            And never breathe a word about your loss;" -- Rudyard Kipling

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: 2011-12 DI Rutter Computer Rankings

                              Rank em Grandaddy. Let's see how you think they should be rated.

                              Comment

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