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The KRACH-based Probabilities

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  • The KRACH-based Probabilities

    For all KRACH believers out there, this spreadsheet calculates the KRACH-based probabilities of victory for each round for each team. It only assumes that the season's KRACH accurately represents the skill of the teams and does not dynamically update KRACH as the tournament progresses.

    For those who just want the results, here's the bottom line:
    School KRACH Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4
    Yale 370 0.8047 0.4771 0.2824 0.1422
    Air Force 89.77 0.1952 0.0510 0.0133 0.0027
    Union 228.2 0.4516 0.2019 0.0954 0.0370
    UMD 277.1 0.5483 0.2698 0.1406 0.0610
    Mrrimk 249.3 0.5111 0.2496 0.1155 0.0472
    Ntre Dm 238.4 0.4888 0.2332 0.1054 0.042
    UNH 212.9 0.4135 0.1927 0.0818 0.0305
    Miami 301.9 0.5864 0.3243 0.1652 0.0750
    NoDak 516.8 0.7890 0.5242 0.3234 0.2090
    RPI 138.2 0.2100 0.0740 0.0227 0.0075
    W Mich 186.1 0.3725 0.1229 0.0457 0.0183
    Denver 313.4 0.6274 0.2787 0.1385 0.0730
    Michigan 296.6 0.5780 0.2680 0.1213 0.0623
    UNO 216.5 0.4219 0.1643 0.0624 0.0272
    BC 440.9 0.6928 0.4354 0.2382 0.1452
    CC 195.5 0.3071 0.1320 0.0471 0.0194

    Sorry about the formatting. I know a lot of math and very little HTML. Get the spreadsheet if you're really interested....
    Last edited by goblue78; 03-20-2011, 04:15 PM.

  • #2
    Re: The KRACH-based Probabilities

    Code:
    School	KRACH	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4
    Yale	370	0.8047	0.4771	0.2824	0.1422
    AFA	89.77	0.1952	0.0510	0.0133	0.0027
    Union	228.2	0.4516	0.2019	0.0954	0.0370
    UMD	277.1	0.5483	0.2698	0.1406	0.0610
    Mrrimk	249.3	0.5111	0.2496	0.1155	0.0472
    Ntre Dm	238.4	0.4888	0.2332	0.1054	0.042
    UNH	212.9	0.4135	0.1927	0.0818	0.0305
    Miami	301.9	0.5864	0.3243	0.1652	0.0750
    NoDak	516.8	0.7890	0.5242	0.3234	0.2090
    RPI	138.2	0.2100	0.0740	0.0227	0.0075
    W Mich	186.1	0.3725	0.1229	0.0457	0.0183
    Denver	313.4	0.6274	0.2787	0.1385	0.0730
    Mich	296.6	0.5780	0.2680	0.1213	0.0623
    UNO	216.5	0.4219	0.1643	0.0624	0.0272
    BC	440.9	0.6928	0.4354	0.2382	0.1452
    CC	195.5	0.3071	0.1320	0.0471	0.0194

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    • #3
      Re: The KRACH-based Probabilities

      Thanks. Anyway,some interesting results, If you think that an above average probability is anything above 1/16, then 5 teams have above average probabilities of winning: NoDak, BC, Yale, Miami and Denver, in that order. Defining the group of death as the one with the largest joint probability, the NoDak region is 30.5 percent, followed by BC's region at 25.4%, then Yale's at 24.3 percent. The least likely region to produce the ultimate winner is Miami's, at 19.5 percent.

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