RPI 2010-2011 VI- Red Dead Redemption

[RHamilton]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 VI- Red Dead Redemption

Question. Is there any scenario where Cornell and Dartmouth both win and RPI is in?

Yes, 8. Looks like they require a WMU win and a ND tie against Michigan.

[realet]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 VI- Red Dead Redemption

The WaP analysis will be up just after midnight.

[RPI92]

Interesting. Dartmouth has been completely eliminated.

[turk181]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 VI- Red Dead Redemption

with all that was needed, is it possible that now all that's needed is Yale wins...RPI's IN? btw, thanks Tom & Reilly for all the time and effort you've put into this

[jmhusker]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 VI- Red Dead Redemption

The cheering section tomorrow is pretty straightforward... YALE. If they lose then we are very likely out. I know the tool says 80% but that's a load of Krach.

[GRussinko]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 VI- Red Dead Redemption

The cheering section tomorrow is pretty straightforward... YALE. If they lose then we are very likely out. I know the tool says 80% but that's a load of Krach.

We absolutely want a Colgate win in the consolation game tomorrow afternoon. It gives us a significantly larger margin for error in the event Yale does lose to Cornell.

[pgv]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 VI- Red Dead Redemption

RPI can still finish 12th and grab a 3 seed with these results tomorrow

Atlantic Hockey
Championship game: RIT defeats Air Force

CCHA
Championship game: Western Michigan defeats Miami
Consolation game: Michigan defeats Notre Dame

ECAC
Championship game: Yale defeats Cornell
Consolation game: Colgate defeats Dartmouth

Hockey East
Championship game: Merrimack defeats Boston College

WCHA
Championship game: North Dakota defeats Denver

That scenario is a nightmare for the NCAA...both BC and Merrimack 1 seeds, and UNH a 4 seed

[burgie12]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 VI- Red Dead Redemption

That scenario is a nightmare for the NCAA...both BC and Merrimack 1 seeds, and UNH a 4 seed

Especially with Yale as the other East host getting a 1 seed, too.

[jmhusker]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 VI- Red Dead Redemption

We absolutely want a Colgate win in the consolation game tomorrow afternoon. It gives us a significantly larger margin for error in the event Yale does lose to Cornell.

Yes you are correct - I oversimplified the issue. We actually need a Colgate win plus a Notre Dame loss or WMU win. Then the Yale game is moot.

[burgie12]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 VI- Red Dead Redemption

First blush glance at the Pairwise Predictor says that if the CCHA consolation game doesn't end in a tie, a Yale win is nearly a necessity tomorrow. (PS I'm assuming that Colgate doesn't win.)

[johnk]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 VI- Red Dead Redemption

Has anyone found a way that keeps RPI out if Colgate wins their consolation game and Michigan either ties or wins theirs?

[RHamilton]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 VI- Red Dead Redemption

Has anyone found a way that keeps RPI out if Colgate wins their consolation game and Michigan either ties or wins theirs?

I was studying that earlier (via my program), and if I recall that is a lock scenario.

[olmerd]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 VI- Red Dead Redemption

The cheering section tomorrow is pretty straightforward... YALE.

With all of the pain that Cornell has caused me over the past 10 years, why does it have to come down to Cornell?!?!

[realet]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 VI- Red Dead Redemption

Has anyone found a way that keeps RPI out if Colgate wins their consolation game and Michigan either ties or wins theirs?

As RHamilton said, that's a lock.

RPI basically has two chances to qualify for the tournament tomorrow.

1) During the early games, that is, the ECAC and CCHA consolation games, Colgate defeats Dartmouth and Michigan either defeats or ties Notre Dame. If both happen, RPI is in.
2) If that doesn't work, we move on to the championship games, and during those Yale defeats Cornell. If that happens, RPI is in. If it doesn't, RPI is out.

It's that excessively simple. If the first one happens and RPI gets in that way, we then watch the CCHA championship and root for Western Michigan to defeat Miami. If that happens, RPI is a #3 seed. If not, they are a #4 seed. Requiring Yale to beat Cornell to get into the tournament will make RPI a #4 seed if it happens.

As far as I can tell, the Hockey East, WCHA, and Atlantic Hockey championship games are either of no importance whatsoever or of extremely minimal importance. None will result in an upset winner and none has a direct impact on any of our comparisons or those of anyone in our vicinity in the PairWise.

Here's the breakdown at WaP: It All Comes Down to This

Worth reiterating that Dartmouth has nothing to play for tomorrow. They cannot make the tournament. The ECAC gets four teams in the tournament if Colgate, Michigan, and Cornell all win.

EDIT: Forgot about the failsafe. If Colgate does not beat Dartmouth, RPI can still get in with a Cornell win, but it requires a tie in the CCHA consolation game and a WMU win. If there is a winner in the CCHA consolation game, RPI is out with a Cornell win and a Dartmouth win or tie. So root for a tie, but if there's a winner, prefer Michigan.

[knsmith]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 VI- Red Dead Redemption

Someone needs to pass on the pertinent info and make sure Dartmouth is fully aware that they have absolutely nothing to play for tomorrow... (said only somewhat in jest)