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Re: WCHA first round: UAA @ Minnesota
Ahh, facts you say? OK.
This year, MN is 13-10-5 in league play while UAA is 12-14-2. A slight but significant lead for MN. Breaking it down into specific elements of their play, MN clearly is a better offensive team, and by a wide margin. MN also has the better goaltender (I'm waiting for a UAA fan to debate that, but just look at the numbers and the consistency). UAA has the edge in team defense. But with the aggregate relevance of goaltending and team defense being ability to prevent goals against, it's a wash between these two teams (both have given up 78g in conference play, and MN has given up 96 on the season to UAA's 99).
Looking at the past 14 games, which is arguably a better indicator of the teams being brought to the rink this coming weekend, MN is 7-4-3 while UAA is 7-7. Again, slight but significant. This is against virtually the same strength of schedule (UAA has played @UNO, @UND, DU while MN has played DU, @UMD, @UND; UAA has played MTU, @ MSU while MN has played MTU, @BSU; UAA played home/home with UA while MN played @ UW).
In those 14 games, MN has allowed 4 or more goals twice. UAA has allowed 4 or more 5 times. MN has allowed 2 or less 9 times to UAA's 7.
In scoring, MN has put up at least 3 goals in 10 of the last 14 (including the last 7 straight) while UAA has accomplished that mark less than half the time, only 6.
MN has scored 1 or no goals only 3 times in the past 14, while UAA has done this 7 times in the past 14.
Any reasonable, rational person would conclude that MN is playing better hockey right now. Combine that with the fact that the games are being played in MN and the logical prediction would be that MN will win this series.
That being said, WCHA games and in particular the play-offs don't always follow logic. But I think MN fans have good reason to feel they are in a good spot to advance to the Final 5.
Originally posted by Jimjamesak
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This year, MN is 13-10-5 in league play while UAA is 12-14-2. A slight but significant lead for MN. Breaking it down into specific elements of their play, MN clearly is a better offensive team, and by a wide margin. MN also has the better goaltender (I'm waiting for a UAA fan to debate that, but just look at the numbers and the consistency). UAA has the edge in team defense. But with the aggregate relevance of goaltending and team defense being ability to prevent goals against, it's a wash between these two teams (both have given up 78g in conference play, and MN has given up 96 on the season to UAA's 99).
Looking at the past 14 games, which is arguably a better indicator of the teams being brought to the rink this coming weekend, MN is 7-4-3 while UAA is 7-7. Again, slight but significant. This is against virtually the same strength of schedule (UAA has played @UNO, @UND, DU while MN has played DU, @UMD, @UND; UAA has played MTU, @ MSU while MN has played MTU, @BSU; UAA played home/home with UA while MN played @ UW).
In those 14 games, MN has allowed 4 or more goals twice. UAA has allowed 4 or more 5 times. MN has allowed 2 or less 9 times to UAA's 7.
In scoring, MN has put up at least 3 goals in 10 of the last 14 (including the last 7 straight) while UAA has accomplished that mark less than half the time, only 6.
MN has scored 1 or no goals only 3 times in the past 14, while UAA has done this 7 times in the past 14.
Any reasonable, rational person would conclude that MN is playing better hockey right now. Combine that with the fact that the games are being played in MN and the logical prediction would be that MN will win this series.
That being said, WCHA games and in particular the play-offs don't always follow logic. But I think MN fans have good reason to feel they are in a good spot to advance to the Final 5.
The feeling is much better when the Gophers win after sandbagging compared to losing after a win prediction.
Very well, actually!
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