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View Full Version : Maine Black Bears, 2010-2011, Redemption or FORE, I say......



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BassAle
02-23-2011, 09:15 PM
From what I hear the University is planning on having extra public safety officers on hand Friday due to a rumored "Fire Timmay" protest

TripleE
02-23-2011, 09:21 PM
From what I hear the University is planning on having extra public safety officers on hand Friday due to a rumored "Fire Timmay" protest

You're joking...

BassAle
02-23-2011, 09:31 PM
You're joking...

no, I'm not

TripleE
02-24-2011, 01:34 AM
no, I'm not

While I support such actions, how, of all places, has this rumor not shown up on this forum? That's why I find it hard to believe any kind of serious movement is in the works.

walrus
02-24-2011, 05:52 AM
From what I hear the University is planning on having extra public safety officers on hand Friday due to a rumored "Fire Timmay" protest

Thats a hoot, I find it hard to believe especially if students are on spring break. Kevin panic just predicted a foot of snow tomorrow so that ought to add to MCs fun in Orono

BassAle
02-24-2011, 07:08 AM
Thats a hoot, I find it hard to believe especially if students are on spring break. Kevin panic just predicted a foot of snow tomorrow so that ought to add to MCs fun in Orono

this came from someone in the athletic department

RENCEB
02-24-2011, 08:31 AM
A UNH fan pulling for Maine against Merrimack???

Ah yes, the enemy of my enemy is my friend :-) I feel like I am in the "Bizarro World" episode of Sienfeld. Everything is the opposite of what it is/always has been. BC and UNH fans rooting for Maine to knock off MerrimacK? Is this a sign of the apocalypse?

GoBlackBears
02-24-2011, 10:24 AM
From what I hear the University is planning on having extra public safety officers on hand Friday due to a rumored "Fire Timmay" protest


Fire him today and they won't have to worry about it.

Slapshot08
02-24-2011, 10:39 AM
this came from someone in the athletic department

The wishful thinking on this thread has reached new heights (no pun intended, FiveHole!). No matter how you slice it, we have 3 more years of this. Then, let the healing begin!

KnowItAll
02-24-2011, 12:04 PM
From what I hear the University is planning on having extra public safety officers on hand Friday due to a rumored "Fire Timmay" protest

2 Debbies instead of 1?

how many Butterfields ARE there?

and the "protest" is going to be signs held up at a sporting event on STATE PROPERTY...
unlike a BC, which is private property, fans at Orono have a First Amendment right to have signs.
I hope the cops know that.
as long as the signs are not blocking the view of anyone behind them, the cops will have absolutely NO RIGHT to tell people not to hold them up.

walrus
02-24-2011, 02:21 PM
this came from someone in the athletic department

Now I have to go even if its a blizzard:D

jcarter7669
02-24-2011, 02:22 PM
2 Debbies instead of 1?

how many Butterfields ARE there?

and the "protest" is going to be signs held up at a sporting event on STATE PROPERTY...
unlike a BC, which is private property, fans at Orono have a First Amendment right to have signs.
I hope the cops know that.



It's Maine? You would be lucky if the rent-a-cops even know how to read the signs.

fiqure8
02-24-2011, 02:37 PM
49% is significant, as it's a deviation of 16 points from what you'd expect. Maine's 28% is not nearly as significant, as it's only 5 points lower than would be expected. Given that these are percentages it's hard to make any significance out of it; even a team that gives up a greater proportion of its goals in the third period can come from behind to win at the end if they also score more in the third period than average, and/or if they allow so few goals on average that the increased likelihood of giving up a late goal makes little difference.



Yes, that's true-- statistically, Maine's defense and goaltending are not significantly worse in the 3rd period compared to any other period. However, if you give up a fair number of goals and you only have a one or two goal lead, you can lose that lead and the game while playing a thoroughly average period.

Maine has given up 65 goals in 23 league contests, which is an average of .94 goals per period. So that means sometimes you'll give up one, but sometimes you'll give up two and other times you'll give up none. Two goals is enough to have a one-goal lead turn into a one-goal loss, and that can happen in 7.6 games over the course of the season without deviating at all from the expected results. (Incidentally, Maine has 8 league losses, so they could have given up a third period lead in every loss this season and it wouldn't necessarily indicate anything statistically significant about 3rd period defense, but just an inevitable result of how many you score and how many they score in an average game, regardless of when.)

UNH has given up only 46 goals in those same 23 contests. That's a 2.0 goals against average, even, which means .66 goals per period. That means they give up one goal per period only slightly more often than they give up none. Since they only give up, on average, two goals per game, any period in which they give up a goal has given up 50% of the goals allotted for that game. In short, UNH gives up so few goals that even the 49% given up in the 2nd period may not be much more than statistical noise. The teams that have given up fewer goals will have less statistical significance attached to any per-period trend because the size of the pool is smaller.

I think that 7 blown leads would certainly lead to a subjective opinion that a team has a bad 3rd period defense and can't hold a lead, without that being a valid statistical judgment. We also haven't taken offense into account at all; it can be just as much a failure to maintain a lead as it is giving a lead up, because on average you'd expect your opponent to have their scoring equally distributed as well, and if they average 3 goals per game then odds are they will score one in the third.

Maine is scoring 3.17 goals per game, which is 1.05 goals per period, so the margin is pretty thin. All other things being equal you'd expect them to win a few more games than lose, and win a few more periods than they lose, and of those losses, some would be 3rd period leads lost.

So can one determine on the overall SOG how many came from grade A chances? and how many came from "behind the goal line" or soft goals........you can not blame team D on those.........

walrus
02-24-2011, 04:11 PM
It's Maine? You would be lucky if the rent-a-cops even know how to read the signs.

Sorry

They are University Police and they carry guns. IF Murphy was around he'd show you to read

BearPaw
02-24-2011, 06:43 PM
I feel like I am in the "Bizarro World" episode of Sienfeld. Everything is the opposite of what it is/always has been. BC and UNH fans rooting for Maine to knock off MerrimacK? Is this a sign of the apocalypse?

Hell is freezing over. :p

BearPaw
02-24-2011, 06:45 PM
While I support such actions, how, of all places, has this rumor not shown up on this forum? That's why I find it hard to believe any kind of serious movement is in the works.

Facebook is quiet and holding steady at 163. Guess they're not going to make the 200 by the end of the week.

TripleE
02-24-2011, 08:10 PM
Could someone explain to me the scenerio of why the CBA makes it unlikely that Gus will be back? Something about Detroit losing exclusive rights to him if he doesn't sign?

Thanks!

BoSox3066
02-24-2011, 08:19 PM
Essentially Detroit holds Gus' rights until August of the year his class graduates. So Detroit has incentive to sign him now because once he gets through 2011-12 as a college player, he's basically a few months away from being able to sign anywhere he wants a la Blake Wheeler.

KnowItAll
02-24-2011, 08:30 PM
Could someone explain to me the scenerio of why the CBA makes it unlikely that Gus will be back? Something about Detroit losing exclusive rights to him if he doesn't sign?

Thanks!

if Gus plays his senior season, then all Detroit (Grand Rapids) will get for 2011-2012, is a few games plus playoffs and all Gus will get is a small fraction of an annual salary(games played)... and Gus will have to take whatever Detroit is offering... IF he signs with Detroit after his senior season.
If he waits till August after his senior season, then he is a free agent and he can take the highest offer... and he would only lose out on the pay that he would have gotten had he played a few games in 2011-2012.

Detroit knows that if they do not get him before the end of his senior season (paying more than the rookie minumum), then he will probably wait till August and go to the high bidder.
right now, only Detroit can offer him a salary and they get to choose what that is.

if his agent is pretty sure that Detroit will lowball and Edmonton will offer Penner-type numbers, gustav will play his senior season and sign with Edmonton for $4.5M a year for a few years. (in this case, it would have been wise for Nyquist to stay in school, miss a year of "low" pay and take the giant pay day one year later). SO, Detroit has to woo him with enough money so that he does not consider missing a year of salary and taking the potential big payday.

TripleE
02-24-2011, 08:32 PM
Essentially Detroit holds Gus' rights until August of the year his class graduates. So Detroit has incentive to sign him now because once he gets through 2011-12 as a college player, he's basically a few months away from being able to sign anywhere he wants a la Blake Wheeler.

Hmm, yea, but didn't Wheeler leave after his Jr. year with the Gophers? With Detroit's consistency and their knack for having success with Swedish born players, why would he want to play anywhere else?