Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

UNO and Notre Dame out

Your Picks
Atlantic Hockey
Semifinal #2: Air Force defeats Holy Cross
Semifinal #1: RIT defeats Connecticut
Championship game: RIT defeats Air Force
CCHA
Semifinal #2: Miami defeats Notre Dame
Semifinal #1: Western Michigan defeats Michigan
Championship game: Western Michigan defeats Miami
Consolation game: Michigan defeats Notre Dame
ECAC
Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Dartmouth
Semifinal #1: Yale defeats Colgate
Championship game: Cornell defeats Yale
Consolation game: Dartmouth defeats Colgate
Hockey East
Semifinal #2: Merrimack defeats New Hampshire
Semifinal #1: Northeastern defeats Boston College
Championship game: Northeastern defeats Merrimack
WCHA
Play-in #2: Bemidji State defeats Minnesota-Duluth
Play-in #1: Alaska-Anchorage defeats Colorado College
Semifinal #2: Bemidji State defeats Denver
Semifinal #1: Alaska-Anchorage defeats North Dakota
Championship game: Bemidji State defeats Alaska-Anchorage

[burgie12]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Priceless is there a. Dooms day scenario where unh doesn't get in

Yes.

Your Picks
Atlantic Hockey
Semifinal #2: Air Force defeats Holy Cross
Semifinal #1: RIT defeats Connecticut
Championship game: RIT defeats Air Force
CCHA
Semifinal #2: Miami defeats Notre Dame
Semifinal #1: Western Michigan defeats Michigan
Championship game: Western Michigan defeats Miami
Consolation game: Notre Dame defeats Michigan
ECAC
Semifinal #2: Dartmouth defeats Cornell
Semifinal #1: Yale defeats Colgate
Championship game: Dartmouth defeats Yale
Consolation game: Colgate defeats Cornell
Hockey East
Semifinal #2: Merrimack defeats New Hampshire
Semifinal #1: Northeastern defeats Boston College
Championship game: Northeastern defeats Merrimack
WCHA
Play-in #2: Bemidji State defeats Minnesota-Duluth
Play-in #1: Colorado College defeats Alaska-Anchorage
Semifinal #2: Bemidji State defeats Denver
Semifinal #1: Colorado College defeats North Dakota
Championship game: Bemidji State defeats Colorado College


UNH ends 14th, with BSU, RIT, and NU all taking away at-large bids. FWIW, I get the same result (with regards to UNH's placement, anyways) even if CC doesn't advance past UAA, let alone beat NoDak. This is just one example of multiple similar iterations.

[LTsatch]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Are trying to troll or something? BC is going to steam roll this weekend and further. Just playing with the predictor. Is that a sin?

Get lost.

Nah, Carmines my personal troll

Have fun out west

[J.D.]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Didn't see it posted, so this is what things would look like right now:

Bridgeport:

1. Yale
2. Merrimack
3. Notre Dame
4. RIT

Green Bay:

1. North Dakota
2. Minnesota-Duluth
3. Western Michigan
4. Dartmouth

Manchester:

1. BC
2. Denver
3. UNH
4. CC

St. Louis:

1. Michigan
2. Miami
3. Union
4. Nebraska-Omaha

[Craig P.]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

UNO and Notre Dame out

The "ND out" scenario requires the following features:
* WMU wins the CCHA and ND loses the consolation game
* Bemidji wins the WCHA, and CC loses to UAA in their play-in—if CC wins OR if UAA wins the title, RPI is behind the Irish
* Northeastern wins Hockey East and someone other than Yale wins the ECAC

Outside those constraints, it doesn't matter what happens, ND will end up 13th with four non-at-large-quality autobids.

[GustavIsGod]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

This scenario works for Maine as well. The key for Maine is Northeastern beating BC so that Northeastern becomes a TUC.

Atlantic Hockey
Semifinal #2: Holy Cross defeats Air Force
Semifinal #1: RIT defeats Connecticut
Championship game: RIT defeats Holy Cross
CCHA
Semifinal #2: Notre Dame defeats Miami
Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Western Michigan
Championship game: Notre Dame defeats Michigan
Consolation game: Miami defeats Western Michigan
ECAC
Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Dartmouth
Semifinal #1: Yale defeats Colgate
Championship game: Yale defeats Cornell
Consolation game: Colgate defeats Dartmouth
Hockey East
Semifinal #2: New Hampshire defeats Merrimack
Semifinal #1: Northeastern defeats Boston College
Championship game: New Hampshire defeats Northeastern
WCHA
Play-in #2: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Bemidji State
Play-in #1: Alaska-Anchorage defeats Colorado College
Semifinal #2: Denver defeats Minnesota-Duluth
Semifinal #1: North Dakota defeats Alaska-Anchorage
Championship game: Denver defeats North Dakota

[BC/HE]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Sweet, I found a way BC could become #1 overall even while losing in the HE Semis.

These results:


Gives us BC at 1, Yale at 2, UND at 3 and Merrimack at 4.

I love playing around with this stuff every year!

That must mean that Cornell still can fall out as a TUC with 2 losses in the ECAC championships.

[SJHovey]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

If favorites win out:

1	Yale (EC)	29	0.5789
2	North Dak (WC)	28	0.5873
3	Boston Coll (HE)27	0.5827
4	Michigan (CC)	26	0.5628
5	Miami (CC)	25	0.5552
6	Denver U (WC)	23	0.5565
7	Union (EC)	22	0.5525
8	MinnDuluth (WC)	22	0.5515
9	Merrimack (HE)	22	0.5483
10	Notre Dame (CC	20	0.5489
11	New Hamp (HE)	18	0.5469
12	Dartmouth (EC)	18	0.5363
13	CO College (WC)	16	0.5264
14	NE-Omaha (WC)	15	0.5324
15	Western (CC)	15	0.5262
---
16	RPI (EC)	15	0.5238

This is not what my pairwise predictor shows if the favorites win out.

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Has anyone found a way to get Union out? I think 9 teams are in, and it will take weird events to get Notre Dame and UNH out. Has anyone been able to get UAA in without winning the WCHA?

So we essentially have 7 teams for 4 spots.

Teams playing that are still alive for at-large bids: Western Michigan, Dartmouth, CC.
Teams not playing that are alive for at-large bids: UNO, RPI, BU, Maine

[UnionHockeyManiac]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

has anyone found a way to get union out?

I thought you said this wasn't possible.

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

I thought you said this wasn't possible.

I don't think it is, that's why I was asking. I would have thought ND and UNH were safe too.

[JB]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Yes.

UNH ends 14th, with BSU, RIT, and NU all taking away at-large bids. FWIW, I get the same result (with regards to UNH's placement, anyways) even if CC doesn't advance past UAA, let alone beat NoDak. This is just one example of multiple similar iterations.

There are a bunch of ways to get UNH out but from what I can find all are tied to:
1) UNH not winning in the semi's
and
2) Cornell going 0-2 and must include a loss to Colgate in the Consolation game
and
3) BSU, CC or AA winning the WCHA
and
4) Northeastern winning hockey east
and
5) Western Michigan defeating Michigan

UNH not winning is pretty obvious

The Cornell piece is easy UNH is 1-0 vs Cornell. If Cornell stays a TUC that keeps UNH in. Only way for Cornell to fall out of TUC is to go 0-2 including a loss to Colgate even 0-2 with a loss to Yale keeps them in TUC Status.

The next two are easy too. To bump UNH you need CC to jump UNH (only happens with CC winning WCHA) and 2 auto's qualifiers. Also it works with 3 auto qualifiers. Basically you need 3 from outside the current 16 (or 15 + Atlantic Champ) to get in.

The Western piece I am still playing with. It appears Western beating Michigan flips to UNH-WM comparison. However I found at least a couple cases where that exact comparison didn't flip but UNH had another flip that allowed Western to get past UNH.

[unofan]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Yep. Pretty **** sketchy. Colorado and Virginia Tech got screwed in favor of VCU and UAB.

Colorado had the 325th ranked non-conference schedule. So no love lost for them.

I think Harvard had a better resume than Colorado, including a head to head win.

[unofan]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Also, and on topic, is there anyway Dartmouth can lose to Cornell and still make the tournament? If so, I haven't found it yet.

Also, assuming the top 14 get in (so AHA and one other conference upset), is there anyway Dartmouth stays out if they beat Cornell? Every scenario I have lands them either 13th or 14th assuming a win over Cornell and a loss to Yale (haven't run it yet with them playing Colgate and losing...mainly cause they're probably boned at that point anyway).

So it seems like Dartmouth's season essentially comes down to Friday, barring an excess of wierd results.

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Also, and on topic, is there anyway Dartmouth can lose to Cornell and still make the tournament? If so, I haven't found it yet.

Also, assuming the top 14 get in (so AHA and one other conference upset), is there anyway Dartmouth stays out if they beat Cornell? Every scenario I have lands them either 13th or 14th assuming a win over Cornell and a loss to Yale (haven't run it yet with them playing Colgate and losing...mainly cause they're probably boned at that point anyway).

So it seems like Dartmouth's season essentially comes down to Friday, barring an excess of wierd results.

Have Dartmouth beat Yale for 3rd.

This scenario has Dartmouth winning and finishing 16 with cut line at 14.

Your Picks
Atlantic Hockey
Semifinal #2: Air Force defeats Holy Cross
Semifinal #1: RIT defeats Connecticut
Championship game: RIT defeats Air Force
CCHA
Semifinal #2: Miami defeats Notre Dame
Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Western Michigan
Championship game: Michigan defeats Miami
Consolation game: Western Michigan defeats Notre Dame
ECAC
Semifinal #2: Dartmouth defeats Cornell
Semifinal #1: Colgate defeats Yale
Championship game: Colgate defeats Dartmouth
Consolation game: Cornell defeats Yale
Hockey East
Semifinal #2: Merrimack defeats New Hampshire
Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Northeastern
Championship game: Boston College defeats Merrimack
WCHA
Play-in #2: Bemidji State defeats Minnesota-Duluth
Play-in #1: Colorado College defeats Alaska-Anchorage
Semifinal #2: Bemidji State defeats Denver
Semifinal #1: Colorado College defeats North Dakota
Championship game: Colorado College defeats Bemidji State

Edit:
This has cut line at 15, Dartmouth winning Friday and still finishing 16
Your Picks
Atlantic Hockey
Semifinal #2: Air Force defeats Holy Cross
Semifinal #1: RIT defeats Connecticut
Championship game: RIT defeats Air Force
CCHA
Semifinal #2: Miami defeats Notre Dame
Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Western Michigan
Championship game: Michigan defeats Miami
Consolation game: Western Michigan defeats Notre Dame
ECAC
Semifinal #2: Dartmouth defeats Cornell
Semifinal #1: Yale defeats Colgate
Championship game: Yale defeats Dartmouth
Consolation game: Cornell defeats Colgate
Hockey East
Semifinal #2: Merrimack defeats New Hampshire
Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Northeastern
Championship game: Boston College defeats Merrimack
WCHA
Play-in #2: Bemidji State defeats Minnesota-Duluth
Play-in #1: Colorado College defeats Alaska-Anchorage
Semifinal #2: Denver defeats Bemidji State
Semifinal #1: Colorado College defeats North Dakota
Championship game: Denver defeats Colorado College