Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

[Federal League]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

So, I am left wondering what your reasoning was for switching the #4 seeds, because there are no conflicts I see there. And, I am thinking that Union should face the lower seed, which would be Merrimack rather than UMD. There are no attendance problems here either. Anyway, I think I must be missing something, because you are usually right on it.

I'm guessing the big thing was keeping Dartmouth in state and not putting them on a plane.

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

The bracketology is tough. There can be an all WCHA first-round game because the league gets 5 teams into the tournament. However, the NCAA has avoided this in the past and I have to assume they will again.

Bridgeport	Manchester	St Louis	Green Bay
Yale		Boston Coll	Michigan	North Dakota
UNO		Denver		Miami		Union
Notre Dame	UNH		Merrimack	MinnDuluth
AHA Champ	Dartmouth	Minnesota	Maine

Priceless,
Sorry you are a Maine homer. I am a Minnesota guy.
Anyway, it seems to me the bracketology in this scenario would better go:

Bridgeport	Manchester	St Louis	Green Bay
Yale		Boston Coll	Michigan	North Dakota
UNO		Denver		Miami		Union
Notre Dame	UNH		MinnDuluth	Merrimack
AHA Champ	Minnesota	Maine 	        Dartmouth

So, I am left wondering what your reasoning was for switching the #4 seeds, because there are no conflicts I see there. And, I am thinking that Union should face the lower seed, which would be Merrimack rather than UMD. There are no attendance problems here either. Anyway, I think I must be missing something, because you are usually right on it.

Thanks

Flights (9 in my brackets, 11 in yours)
Attendance in Green Bay. In your bracket, every team flies to Green Bay and only North Dakota is local (and they're 600 miles away). UMD is drivable and may bring some fans. Another option is to switch Michigan/Minn to Green Bay and send UND/Maine to St. Louis.

Edit: Trial and error...preview the post before posting it. Edit as needed. I've been doing these tables for a while so I have some idea where to add/delete spaces to get everything to line up. It still takes a few goes though...

[Ralph Baer]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Edit: Trial and error...preview the post before posting it. Edit as needed. I've been doing these tables for a while so I have some idea where to add/delete spaces to get everything to line up. It still takes a few goes though...

Your tables have never lined up on my computer.

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Your tables have never lined up on my computer.

Probably a problem with the biological interface.

I just tried with Internet Exploder and Firefox and all the columns lined up. My default browser is Opera. I suspect the tables will look different on different computers.

[BC/HE]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

The #1 seeds:

Yale (#1-#3) - The only way Yale loses the #1 overall seed is by winning this weekend and then losing twice to TUC teams (Union, Dartmouth, Cornell) at Atlantic City. Win one there and they are #1. They can also secure #1 overall if they lose this weekend. St. Lawrence cannot become a TUC even by winning the ECAC Championship. If they lose twice they can fall as far as third if BC and UND win their league titles.

I believe there is another way thay can fall from #1 overall. If they lose to Colgate in the semifinals, BC would turn the COP in their favor. BC winning Hockey East may boost them enough to take over the RPI as well. Also should Cornell lose twice to Quinippiac this weekend they could fall out as a TUC and a single loss to a TUC may lose that comparison to BC as well.

[JimDahl]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

I believe there is another way thay can fall from #1 overall. If they lose to Colgate in the semifinals, BC would turn the COP in their favor. BC winning Hockey East may boost them enough to take over the RPI as well. Also should Cornell lose twice to Quinippiac this weekend they could fall out as a TUC and a single loss to a TUC may lose that comparison to BC as well.

Even moreso, I think Union can flip the comparison with Yale this weekend. COP is easy, RPI takes a little work. Here's a sample that gives Union a .0001 lead (that could clearly grow). I had to transcribe the results into TBRW format manually, so corrections welcome.

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

I believe there is another way thay can fall from #1 overall. If they lose to Colgate in the semifinals, BC would turn the COP in their favor. BC winning Hockey East may boost them enough to take over the RPI as well. Also should Cornell lose twice to Quinippiac this weekend they could fall out as a TUC and a single loss to a TUC may lose that comparison to BC as well.

I'll admit that having the #12 seed in the ECAC Championship by winning 2 @Union and knocking off Yale in AC is not one of the scenarios I ran
Continuing that track, NoDak can become #1 overall if that happens but BC fails to win the HEA tournament.

Even moreso, I think Union can flip the comparison with Yale this weekend. COP is easy, RPI takes a little work. Here's a sample that gives Union a .0001 lead (that could clearly grow). I had to transcribe the results into TBRW format manually, so corrections welcome.

Union has to win the ECAC championship to remain ahead of Yale on RPI. If they lose either game they fall back behind.
Series that are split 1-1 need to have a third game. I'm dying to know if Tech can pull off the miracle in game 3 in Grand Forks.

[JimDahl]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Union has to win the ECAC championship to remain ahead of Yale on RPI. If they lose either game they fall back behind.
Series that are split 1-1 need to have a third game. I'm dying to know if Tech can pull off the miracle in game 3 in Grand Forks.

Yeah, I said in the post on SiouxSports but failed to repeat here that I had run it out as far as this weekend's scheduled games only -- adding in the game 3s and next weekend's games only increases the complexity. My real point was to convey how many tough to predict edge cases there are. Cumulative total, it seems to only be about .1% of cases in which Yale gets swept that they could fall from #1 overall. But that something that intuitively seems so impossible can happen is still somewhat fascinating, IMHO.

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Yeah, I said in the post on SiouxSports but failed to repeat here that I had run it out as far as this weekend's scheduled games only -- adding in the game 3s and next weekend's games only increases the complexity. My real point was to convey how many tough to predict edge cases there are. Cumulative total, it seems to only be about .1% of cases in which Yale gets swept that they could fall from #1 overall. But that something that intuitively seems so impossible can happen is still somewhat fascinating, IMHO.

Indeed. I only found the New Hampshire to #4 scenario by accident.

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Northeastern upsets BU in the only game of the night.

The field and seeding remain the same. The first team out is now Maine, followed by RPI.

The new TUC line

Quinnipiac	0.5086
RIT	        0.5039
MSU-Mankato	0.5023
Air Force	0.5023
Cornell	        0.5022
---
Robert Morris	0.4988*
NorthEastern	0.4978
Bemidji State	0.4972
Niagara	        0.4963*
Lake Superior	0.4943

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Western Michigan opened the door but Maine, Minnesota and SCSU all failed to walk through it. Thanks to Bemidji's upset, they are a TUC again so North Dakota moves up; UNO moves down.

1	Yale (EC)	30	0.5732
2	North Dak (WC)	29	0.5838
3	Boston Coll (HE)28	0.5767
4	Michigan (CC)	26	0.5581
5	Denver U (WC)	26	0.5551
6	Miami (CC)	25	0.5535
7	Union (EC)	23	0.5636
8	Merrimack (HE)	23	0.5489
9	MinnDuluth (WC)	22	0.5515
10	Notre Dame (CC) 20	0.5522
11	New Hamp (HE)	19	0.5452
12	NE-Omaha (WC)	19	0.5383
13	Dartmouth (EC)	18	0.5329
14	Boston U (HE)	16	0.5319
15	RPI (EC)	16	0.5230
---
16	Maine (HE)	14	0.5279
17	Minnesota (WC)	14	0.5239

Bracketology:

Bridgeport	Manchester	St Louis	Green Bay
Yale		Boston Coll	Michigan	North Dakota
Merrimack	Union		Denver		Miami
UNO		UNH		Notre Dame	MinnDuluth
AHA Champ	Dartmouth	Boston U	RPI

TUC line:

Cornell	        0.5063
RIT	        0.5050
Quinnipiac	0.5040
Air Force	0.5035
Bemidji State	0.5016
MSU-Mankato	0.5003
Robert Morris	0.4984*
Niagara	        0.4961*
NorthEastern	0.4950

[J.D.]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

I agree with Moy's latest brackets except that I would put the UND/UNO/Miami cluster in St. Louis, not Green Bay. Is that crazy? You'd then love to get UMD to Green Bay, but I wasn't able to come up with a reasonable solution there.

[Ralph Baer]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Western Michigan opened the door but Maine, Minnesota and SCSU all failed to walk through it. Thanks to Bemidji's upset, they are a TUC again so North Dakota moves up; UNO moves down.

and RPI moves back in, at least for a day.

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

My concussion rears its ugly head. The pairwise I posted last night is incorrect; I entered the Dartmouth-Harvard score wrong. As luck would have it, the field is unchanged. The seeding now would go #13 BU, #14 Dartmouth. Because of the BC/BU matchup, pairings do not change.

Outside the field, there are 4 teams T16: #16 Wisconsin, #17 Maine, #18 Minnesota, #19 Western Michigan.

I'll try to do better tonight, but make no promises. It seems a world-class percussionist has taken up residence in my head.

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Updated pairwise:

1	Yale (EC)	29	0.5742
2	North Dak (WC)	28	0.5835
3	Boston Coll (HE)27	0.5778
4	Michigan (CC)	25	0.5582
5	Miami (CC)	25	0.5563
6	Merrimack (HE)	23	0.5524
7	Denver U (WC)	23	0.5573
8	Union (EC)	22	0.5579
9	MinnDuluth (WC)	22	0.5538
10	Notre Dame (CC)	20	0.5473
11	New Hamp (HE)	18	0.5470
12	NE-Omaha (WC)	16	0.5331
13	West Mich (CC)	16	0.5278
14	CO College (WC)	16	0.5234
15	Dartmouth (EC)	15	0.5276
16	RPI (EC)	15	0.5234

Bracketology

Bridgeport	Manchester	St Louis		Green Bay
Yale		Boston Coll	Michigan		North Dakota
Union		Denver		Merrimack		Miami
UNO		UNH		Notre Dame		MinnDuluth
AHA Champ	Dartmouth	Col Coll		W Michigan

The TUC line:

Quinnipiac	0.5069
RIT	        0.5065
Air Force	0.5056
Bemidji State	0.5052
Cornell	        0.5021
---
Robert Morris	0.4985*
MSU-Mankato	0.4983*
Lake Superior	0.4973
Niagara	        0.4968*
NorthEastern	0.4952