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Priceless
03-06-2011, 08:41 AM
There are three games today. All six teams are fighting to stay alive. The only game that features a team currently in the field is #14 RPI v Colgate. With a win, the Engineers keep their NCAA hopes alive; a loss drops them to 17th and ends their season. #26 Princeton is going to be a TUC, but with a win they improve to #24 and advance in the ECAC. Neither Northern Michigan nor Bowling Green will even be a TUC with a win today.

goblue78
03-06-2011, 08:51 AM
I think Brown now says it's too late for the PWR.

Priceless
03-06-2011, 09:48 AM
Here are the scripts for the Hockey East, WCHA and AHA playoffs.



20110311 Me 0 Mr 1 NC
20110311 NE 0 BU 1 NC
20110311 Vt 0 NH 1 NC
20110311 MA 0 BC 1 NC
20110312 Me 0 Mr 1 NC
20110312 NE 0 BU 1 NC
20110312 Vt 0 NH 1 NC
20110312 MA 0 BC 1 NC
20110318 Mr 0 BC 1 nc
20110318 BU 0 NH 1 nc
20110319 NH 0 BC 1 nc


20110311 MT 0 ND 1 NC
20110311 Mk 0 DU 1 NC
20110311 BS 0 NO 1 NC
20110311 SC 0 MD 1 NC
20110311 AA 0 Mn 1 NC
20110311 Wi 0 CC 1 NC
20110312 MT 0 ND 1 NC
20110312 Mk 0 DU 1 NC
20110312 BS 0 NO 1 NC
20110312 SC 0 MD 1 NC
20110312 AA 0 Mn 1 NC
20110312 Wi 0 CC 1 NC
20110317 CC 0 NO 1 nc
20110317 Mn 0 MD 1 nc
20110318 NO 0 DU 1 nc
20110318 MD 0 ND 1 nc
20110319 DU 0 ND 1 nc



20110311 SH 0 AF 1 NC
20110311 Ca 0 HC 1 NC
20110311 AI 0 RT 1 NC
20110311 Mh 0 Ct 1 nc
20110312 SH 0 AF 1 NC
20110312 Ca 0 HC 1 NC
20110312 AI 0 RT 1 NC
20110312 Mh 0 Ct 1 nc
20110318 Ct 0 AF 1 nc
20110318 HC 0 RT 1 nc
20110319 AF 0 RT 1 nc


These are defaulted to
2-game series (when necessary)
Higher seed wins every game 1-0

To have the road/lower seeded team win, change the 0 to a 2 - remember to change subsequent games appropriately. Revised CCHA and ECAC scripts will be available tonight.

Priceless
03-06-2011, 10:01 PM
And now the scripts for the ECAC and CCHA



20110311 Cg 0 Un 1 NC
20110311 Qn 0 Cr 1 NC
20110311 SL 0 Ya 1 NC
20110311 Ha 0 Da 1 NC
20110312 Cg 0 Un 1 NC
20110312 Qn 0 Cr 1 NC
20110312 SL 0 Ya 1 NC
20110312 Ha 0 Da 1 NC
20110318 Da 0 Ya 1 nc
20110318 Cr 0 Un 1 nc
20110319 Cr 0 Da 1 nc
20110319 Ya 0 Un 1 nc

20110311 BG 0 Mi 1 NC
20110311 LS 0 Nt 1 NC
20110311 Ak 0 Mm 1 NC
20110311 FS 0 WM 1 NC
20110312 BG 0 Mi 1 NC
20110312 LS 0 Nt 1 NC
20110312 Ak 0 Mm 1 NC
20110312 FS 0 WM 1 NC
20110318 WM 0 Mi 1 nc
20110318 Mm 0 Nt 1 nc
20110319 WM 0 Mm 1 nc
20110319 Nt 0 Mi 1 nc

Priceless
03-06-2011, 10:12 PM
And the updated pairwise



1 Yale (EC) 29 0.5815
2 Boston Coll (HE)28 0.5758
3 North Dak (WC) 27 0.5839
4 Michigan (CC) 25 0.5578
5 Denver U (WC) 24 0.5535
6 Union (EC) 23 0.5627
7 NE-Omaha (WC) 23 0.5441
8 Merrimack (HE) 22 0.5454
9 Miami (CC) 21 0.5511
10 Notre Dame (CC) 20 0.5511
11 MinnDuluth (WC) 20 0.5491
12 New Hamp (HE) 17 0.5429
13 Dartmouth (EC) 16 0.5305
14 W Mich (CC) 15 0.5300
15 CO College (WC) 15 0.5245
---
16 Boston U (HE) 14 0.5336
17 RPI (EC) 14 0.5231


Bracketology:



Bridgeport Manchester St Louis Green Bay
Yale Boston Coll Michigan North Dakota
Merrimack Union Denver UNO
Minn-Duluth UNH Miami Notre Dame
AHA Champ Col Coll Dartmouth W Michigan


The TUC line


Quinnipiac 0.5087
RIT 0.5039
MSU-Mankato 0.5024
Cornell 0.5023
Air Force 0.5022
---
Robert Morris 0.4988*
Bemidji State 0.4973
Niagara 0.4962*
Lake Superior 0.4943
Mich State 0.4935*
NorthEastern 0.4934

redwings8831
03-06-2011, 10:24 PM
I would switch Dartmouth and Colorado College.

Priceless
03-06-2011, 10:40 PM
If the higher seeded team were to win every game



1 Yale (EC) 27 0.5807
2 Boston Coll (HE)26 0.5825
3 North Dak (WC) 25 0.5880
4 Michigan (CC) 24 0.5636
5 Union (EC) 22 0.5708
6 Miami (CC) 21 0.5555
7 Denver U (WC) 20 0.5557
8 Merrimack (HE) 20 0.5486
9 NE-Omaha (WC) 19 0.5458
10 Notre Dame (CC) 18 0.5538
11 MinnDuluth (WC) 18 0.5528
12 New Hamp (HE) 15 0.5467
13 Dartmouth (EC) 14 0.5356
14 Minnesota (WC) 14 0.5297
15 West Mich (CC) 13 0.5279
---
16 CO College (WC) 13 0.5252
17 Boston U (HE) 12 0.5349
18 RPI (EC) 11 0.5229
19 Maine (HE) 9 0.5243
20 St Cloud (WC) 7 0.5113
21 Fairbanks (CC) 7 0.5086
22 RIT (AH) 6 0.5132
23 Wisconsin (WC) 5 0.5182
24 Ferris St (CC) 4 0.5031
25 Princeton (EC) 3 0.5103
26 Anchorage (WC) 3 0.5031
27 Air Force (AH) 2 0.5049
28 Cornell (EC) 0 0.5041


Bracketology is a little messed up, but I come up with



Bridgeport Manchester St Louis Green Bay
Yale Boston Coll Michigan North Dakota
Merrimack Union Miami Denver
UNO UNH MinnDuluth Notre Dame
AHA Champ W Michigan Minnesota Dartmouth


I predict UM would win the St. Louis regional.

It would be the first time since 2007 that we had #1 seeds from each of the four power conferences. It would be the first time since the field expanded to 16 teams that each conference had 2 members in the top 8.

J.D.
03-06-2011, 11:17 PM
I came up with:

Bridgeport:

1. Yale
2. Merrimack
3. Notre Dame
4. RIT

Manchester:

1. BC
2. Denver
3. UNH
4. Dartmouth

Green Bay:

1. UND
2. Union
3. UMD
4. WMU

St. Louis:

1. Michigan
2. UNO
3. Miami
4. CC

Priceless
03-07-2011, 12:47 PM
This week I plan to look at four groups:
TUC
The Win Out club
The bubble
Already in

The TUC picture is easiest:

Robert Morris, Michigan State, Niagara - done for the season, will not attain TUC status.

Northeastern - Needs to win series against BU and win once at HEA Championships.
Lake Superior - Needs to win series against Notre Dame and win one at CCHA Championships.
Bemidji State - Needs to win the series with UNO to regain TUC status.

Air Force - Sweep Sacred Heart this weekend; or win in 3 and win AHA SF.
MSU-Mankato - Needs one win at Denver to remain a TUC. If they are swept they are gone.
Cornell/Quinnipiac - If there is a sweep, the loser is out. If the series goes to three games, the winner will need to win one at ECAC Championships. If Cornell wins in three, Quinnipiac will be very close to the TUC line.
RIT - Will be a TUC with a sweep of AIC this weekend, or win in three plus a win in AHA SF.

Next we'll look at teams that have to win out to make the field of 16.

goblue78
03-07-2011, 01:49 PM
I think Brown now says it's too late for the PWR.

Oh... and now Princeton agrees with them.

unh1982
03-07-2011, 02:34 PM
Great work , really......thanks

Priceless
03-07-2011, 07:51 PM
Must play their way in (This year's Michigan)

Anyone in the AHA.

CCHA: Bowling Green, Lake State, Ferris State
ECAC: Colgate, St. Lawrence, Harvard, Quinnipiac, Cornell
HEA: UMass, Vermont, Northeastern
WCHA: Michigan Tech, MSU-Mankato, Bemidji State, Alaska-Anchorage

Not in currently but can get in without winning conference tournament:

CCHA: Alaska
ECAC: RPI
HEA: Boston University, Maine
WCHA: Minnesota, Wisconsin, St Cloud

Much to my surprise, RPI is like the old man in Monty Python's search for the Holy Grail - not quite dead yet. With the perfect storm of upsets in the QF, RPI can actually get as high as 13 overall. I could not get them past UNH (which leads me to think UNH has clinched - more on that later). If Dartmouth, Western Michigan, Colorado College and Boston University lose quarterfinal series this weekend, RPI can get in. RPI can sneak in if Dartmouth and BU win their series, but need Western to lose to Ferris State and Colorado College to lose to Wisconsin. The Engineers then need both teams to lose before they secure autobids and knock RPI back out. If Western or CC win, RPI needs BU, Dartmouth and Maine to all lose their conference quarters. So this weekend RPI fans are cheering for Ferris, Wisconsin, Northeastern and Harvard. On the bright side, all four teams have red as a primary color (OK, so 2 are Crimson...close enough).

Next up, we look at teams that have locked up invitations.

Priceless
03-07-2011, 08:26 PM
OK, just UMD for Ciskie. It would take a rash of upsets for them not to make it, so I'm going to consider them in. If it takes more than three unusual events to get in, for the purposes of my study, you're in. Just for future reference. :)

I'll probably have the list of in/not in tomorrow.

dxmnkd316
03-07-2011, 09:09 PM
Nix that. See below.

Numbers
03-07-2011, 09:34 PM
Priceless,
Doesn't Western Michigan belong in the "Need to play their way in" club also?
It seems if they lose their QF to Ferris, they can easily be out.

Numbers
03-07-2011, 09:36 PM
I hope I am not interfering dxmnkd. I am using the same source as Priceless. He may understand the programming behind the site. I don't, and the code has got to be long...

But, my numbers match his exactly. I had several problems along the way. I was entering in game scores, and sometimes got 1-1 ties instead of 1-0 scores.

And, remember that only ECAC and CCHA have 3rd place.

Also, are you entering AHA?

dxmnkd316
03-07-2011, 09:48 PM
1 Yale 27 0.5807
2 Boston College 26 0.5830
3 North Dakota 25 0.5880
4 Michigan 24 0.5637
5 Union 22 0.5707
6 Miami 21 0.5555
7 Denver 20 0.5557
8 Merrimack 20 0.5480
9 Nebraska-Omaha 19 0.5458
10 Notre Dame 18 0.5539
11 Minnesota-Duluth 18 0.5528
12 New Hampshire 15 0.5468
13 Dartmouth 14 0.5356
14 Minnesota 14 0.5297
15 Western Michigan 13 0.5279
16 Colorado College 13 0.5253
17 Boston University 12 0.5352
18 Rensselaer 11 0.5229
19 Maine 9 0.5242
20 St. Cloud State 7 0.5113
21 Alaska 7 0.5086
22 RIT 6 0.5130

Numbers
03-07-2011, 10:31 PM
That is looking really close dxmnnkd,
I have only a slight disagreement in RPI with the HE teams (otherwise the only change is +/- .0001, which I give up to how the calculation is run).

So, I have BC .5825
Merrimack .5586
UNH .5467
BU .5349
Maine .5243

I am not sure what could be affecting those numbers to such a small degree.

Oh, and what did you find that you had left out?

dxmnkd316
03-07-2011, 10:37 PM
That is looking really close dxmnnkd,
I have only a slight disagreement in RPI with the HE teams (otherwise the only change is +/- .0001, which I give up to how the calculation is run).

So, I have BC .5825
Merrimack .5586
UNH .5467
BU .5349
Maine .5243

I am not sure what could be affecting those numbers to such a small degree.

Oh, and what did you find that you had left out?

The auto-reseedings are essentially (V/H)LOOKUP commands. I forgot to relabel the columns since I had them locked ($A$1 and they didn't carry down).

Interesting that it's only HEA teams... I'll verify those teams.

Priceless
03-08-2011, 07:58 AM
Priceless,
Doesn't Western Michigan belong in the "Need to play their way in" club also?
It seems if they lose their QF to Ferris, they can easily be out.

I only included teams that aren't in as of today. I haven't even looked at Western yet.