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View Full Version : Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!



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Priceless
02-26-2011, 09:19 AM
I went to the NCAA to get a response. All I saw was smoke.

I don't expect them to tell us unless they have to. So far, they haven't had to.

streaker
02-26-2011, 09:26 AM
I think Michigan stays west - they can bus to St. Louis, have a good fan base - whereas Denver has to fly no matter what and has a small fan base.
I was torn on where to assign the ECAC teams. One of Michigan, Notre Dame and Miami goes east. In my brackets, it is Miami and that leaves no room for Union. Dartmouth, CC and RPI are interchangeable except CC can't be paired with NoDak. Dartmouth and RPI are both bus rides to Manchester, so they are both options.

Of course, to keep the anti-WCHA myth alive, CC has to be in a bracket with another WCHA team :p

The PWR shows Michigan ahead of Merrimack due to the tiebreaker assumption. Don't know why you didn't give Michigan a #1 seed. No matter, this is fools gold right now.

Priceless
02-26-2011, 09:37 AM
The PWR shows Michigan ahead of Merrimack due to the tiebreaker assumption. Don't know why you didn't give Michigan a #1 seed. No matter, this is fools gold right now.

Here:

SS will have #5 Michigan ahead of #4 Mack by .0007 RPI.
SS will have #16 BU ahead of #15 CC by .0081 RPI

If three or more teams are tied, ties are broken by RPI. If two teams are tied there is some disagreement as to how the tie is broken. Some (SiouxSports) break the ties by RPI, others (TBRW) use the comparison. It has only happened once where the RPI and comparison disagreed, in 2005, and teams were switched anyway because of an all-HE 1st round game. The NCAA has not said how they break ties.

Priceless
02-26-2011, 05:01 PM
I think Yale can wrap up the #1 overall seed tonight. They have a 12-2 (.857) record vs TUC. Even subtracting Quinnipiac (2 wins) and giving Air Force enough wins in the AHA Tournament to become a TUC (tenuous at best) that makes Yale 10-3 (.769). Even with an 0-2 record vs TUC in the ECAC tournament, they would be 11-5 (.688) which would be enough to win the category against everyone except maybe NoDak (.700 currently), Merrimack (.667) and BC (.642).

Yale will win the COp component against NoDak. They will drop into a tie with BC if and only if the Eagles play Vermont in the Hockey East Quarters and go 2-0. Yale can only lose the COp with Merrimack if Yale plays and loses to Harvard.

Even if Yale's RPI takes an unexpected nosedive, that will not be enough to cost them comparisons. The only other team with a shot is Michigan, but they have to make up a .0239 gap in the RPI.

A win tonight should wrap things up. A loss tonight, and North Dakota has a chance to flip the comparison. Merrimack and BC need serendipity on their side no matter what happens.

Federal League
02-26-2011, 05:03 PM
Re: Tiebreakers- I got confirmation from someone today that the head-to-head tiebreaker is RPI, not the head-to-head comparison.

Priceless
02-26-2011, 05:04 PM
Re: Tiebreakers- I got confirmation from someone today that the head-to-head tiebreaker is RPI, not the head-to-head comparison.

Don't suppose you can share the identity of this "someone"? :)

Federal League
02-26-2011, 05:16 PM
Don't suppose you can share the identity of this "someone"? :)

Someone in the know at BU, not someone with the NCAA. He was sure of it, though.

Priceless
02-26-2011, 05:22 PM
Someone in the know at BU, not someone with the NCAA. He was sure of it, though.

Oh, so Jack Parker. ;)

Ralph Baer
02-26-2011, 05:24 PM
Oh, so Jack Parker. ;)

Or Freddy Meyer. ;)

Priceless
02-26-2011, 11:25 PM
Updated pairwise, assuming UAA hangs on to win (the Seawolves lead 4-0). If Alaska comes back to tie or win, this will change.



1 Yale (EC) 31 0.5825
2 North Dak (WC) 30 0.5823
3 Boston C (HE) 29 0.5699
4 Michigan (CC) 28 0.5577
5 Denver U (WC) 27 0.5562
6 Union (EC) 25 0.5635
7 Merrimack (HE) 25 0.5517
8 NE-Omaha (WC) 23 0.5459
9 Notre Dame (CC) 22 0.5517
10 Miami (CC) 22 0.5500
11 Duluth (WC) 21 0.5509
12 New Hamp (HE) 21 0.5502
13 RPI (EC) 19 0.5323
14 CO College (WC) 17 0.5269
15 Boston U (HE) 16 0.5359
---
16 Maine (HE) 16 0.5328
17 Dartmouth (EC) 16 0.5308


The brackets look like


Bridgeport Manchester St Louis Green Bay
Yale Boston Coll North Dakota Michigan
Merrimack Union UNO Denver
Minn-Duluth UNH Miami Notre Dame
AHA Champ Colorado Coll Boston U RPI

RPI and CC can be switched to save a flight.

Conference breakdown:
WCHA: 5
Hockey East: 4
ECAC: 3
CCHA: 3
AHA: 1

The TUC line:


AK-Anchorage 0.5045
RIT 0.5036
Bemidji State 0.5025
Cornell 0.5024
Robert Morris 0.5022
Air Force 0.5014
Quinnipiac 0.5009
---
Mich State 0.4998
Niagara 0.4994
Ohio State 0.4985


Tomorrow's NoDak/Bemidji game will have no impact on these standings.

redwings8831
02-26-2011, 11:50 PM
Mine:

Bridgeport:
1. Yale (EC)
8. Nebraska-Omaha (WC)
10. Miami (CC)
16. Atlantic Hockey (AH)

Green Bay:
2. North Dakota (WC)
7. Merrimack (HE)
11. Minnesota-Duluth (WC)
15. Boston University (HE)

Manchester:
3. Boston College (HE)
6. Union (EC)
12. New Hampshire (HE)
13. RPI (EC)

St. Louis:
4. Michigan (CC)
5. Denver (WC)
9. Notre Dame (CC)
14. Colorado College (WC)

*If Air Force wins Atlantic Hockey, move them to Green Bay and Boston University to Bridgeport.*

komey1
02-27-2011, 12:08 AM
I don't think they would move BU to Bridgeport if AF wins. AF will need to fly no matter what. Also, I suspect the NCAA will protect the #1 seed.

Bakunin
02-27-2011, 12:42 AM
Even if Yale's RPI takes an unexpected nosedive, that will not be enough to cost them comparisons. The only other team with a shot is Michigan, but they have to make up a .0239 gap in the RPI.
That's a big gap, but it might be doable. The RPI dropped nearly 0.006 when Dartmouth lost to Clarkson (0.5367 to 0.5308). If Yale suffers a couple punishing losses like that in the ECAC playoffs, that could cut the gap in half. However, even to overcome that gap, Michigan would have to win out... and it's still no guarantee that they'll catch Yale (since RPI is opponent-dependent).

I think in the best case scenario for Michigan, they can gain about 0.008 in the semis/finals combined, and maybe gain 0.004-0.005 in their best-of-three against some mediocre team like LSSU or OSU (top four in the CCHA get opening round byes IIRC, so we don't yet know who their opponent is).

J.D.
02-27-2011, 02:34 AM
You guys may need to check your code? PWR shows CC as being in. Anyway...

Bridgeport:

1. Yale
2. Union
3. Miami
4. RIT

Manchester:

1. BC
2. Denver
3. UNH
4. RPI

St. Louis:

1. North Dakota
2. Notre Dame
3. Nebraska-Omaha
4. Western Michigan

Green Bay:

1. Michigan
2. Merrimack
3. Minnesota-Duluth
4. Colorado College

AFHockeyFan
02-27-2011, 10:50 AM
I think Yale can wrap up the #1 overall seed tonight. They have a 12-2 (.857) record vs TUC. Even subtracting Quinnipiac (2 wins) and giving Air Force enough wins in the AHA Tournament to become a TUC (tenuous at best) that makes Yale 10-3 (.769).

Someone refresh my memory and explain how Yale wins a "comparison" with Air Force when the teams played once and Air Force beat them head-to-head. Is the rest of the Pairwise this illogical?

AFHockeyFan
02-27-2011, 10:53 AM
I don't think they would move BU to Bridgeport if AF wins. AF will need to fly no matter what. Also, I suspect the NCAA will protect the #1 seed.

Air Force flew to Worcester when there was a Regional in Colorado Springs, so I wouldn't say Bridgeport is out of the question.
Kinda like DU this year--a flight is a flight.

And, as far as "protecting the #1 seed," remember the AHA champion has won their first-round game two years in a row.

J.D.
02-27-2011, 11:08 AM
Someone refresh my memory and explain how Yale wins a "comparison" with Air Force when the teams played once and Air Force beat them head-to-head. Is the rest of the Pairwise this illogical?

Dude, come on. You can't simply have a comparison based off of one head-to-head meeting. So, if that was Air Force's only win of the season, they should win the comparison with Yale?

On another note, looks like the PWR was updated after I posted at 3:30 AM. Is it me, or is USCHO not updating these rankings as fast as they have in previous years?

AFHockeyFan
02-27-2011, 12:11 PM
So, if that was Air Force's only win of the season, they should win the comparison with Yale?

Yeah, you're right. All this head-to-head stuff is totally irrelevant. We should just award the NC to the team that finished the Pairwise ranked number one.
Dumbass. It's one ****ing comparison. If Yale was really that good, they would win the other 31.

komey1
02-27-2011, 12:24 PM
Yale has a better RPI, better record against TUCs (AF Does have have requisite games for this to matter), and a better record against common opponents than Air Force.

Air Force wins head to head game.

.......

And my comment about protecting the #1 seed refers to the seeding. It seems to be the general consensus that Ylae is the weakest #1 seed. The AHA champ (presuming no crazy upset like AIC winning) will certainly have a better chance with them than with, say North Dakota.

Dirty
02-27-2011, 12:28 PM
Now you've done it Komey! Prepare for the wrath of Yale fans!!!! They'll beat you down with their intellectual superiority and monocles.