2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread: Congrats to Meghan Duggan!

[comefrombehind]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Evidenced by goals against average and penalty kill percentage, Cornell's defense has been a statistical outlier this year. While only mid-season, both numbers would appear to NCAA records, the former figure by a considerable margin. As you suggest, credit seems deserved somewhere in the Kazmaier top ten.

Head-to-head:

Mercyhurst offensive stars
Agosta 0g 0a -2
Bendus 0g 3a +2

Cornell defensive stars
Fortino 0g 1a +3
Rougeau 0g 1a +2


For the entire season:

Rougeau +26
Agosta +25
Fortino +23
Bendus +19

[mattj711]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Dave, thanks for the Great Breakdown. That is a pretty strong group compared to last year. At any rate IMHO, Johnston should make it over Bendus in your listings. IMHO both RJ and BJ from Cornell are better players and key for their teams. Question for you. How much does the off-ice/academic stuff come into play for this award. Bendus would have a leg up on most if not all others in the academic department.

I definitely think Johnston is deserving as making the Kaz top 10.

I would probably go with Johnston and Fortino for Cornell as my top two. Johnston is my solid number one nominee choice for Cornell players. I'd go with Fortino as number two and I think she is very deserving, though I also think Rougeau, Mazzotta and Jenner are also very worth of consideration.

Both Fortino and Rougeau are superb defensemen and are great offensive threats. I think Fortino's style has a bit more eye candy for fans and probably gets noticed a bit quicker than Rougeau more subtle style. Since Fortino has a few more points than Rougeau, I made her my number two choice. I would have probably gone with Mazzotta as my second choice for Cornell as she has played great. However, she has been out the last couple of weeks with injury and I'm not sure when she'll be able to return.

I also think Jenner is a great player, but since she is a freshman I don't think she is likely to make the top 10 list.

[BadgerFan11]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

I fully agree now that Mazzotta isn't going to make the 10. But I think Fortino is a lock to make 10, and the success of Cornell regardless of goalie if anything will strengthen the case for a Cornell D to be on the list. She's the No. 2 scoring D on the No. 1 defensive team in the country, and she's coming off a First Team All-American season -- if any D ever makes the Kaz Top 10 it's her.

I agree Jenner and Johnston are both top players, and Johnston was probably the most dominant player at 4 Nations, but I still think they'll just miss the Kaz cut.

If I had to project 10 now I'd go
Wisconsin: Knight, Duggan
Mercyhurst: Agosta, Bendus
BU: Philip-Poulin, Wakefield
Cornell: Fortino
UMD: Irwin
Minnesota: Raty
BC: Schaus

Also in contention:
Martin, UMD; Stack, BC; JLam, UND; Johnston, Jenner, Cornell

A few more thoughts: I don't think Schaus has had all that great a season, but she has the reputation and good stats, and I'd picked her over Stack in my projection mainly because at least 2 goalies have to make the top 10.

I think WCHA 4, Hockey East 3, CHA 2, ECAC 1 is about the right distribution of the 10. And Forward 7, Goalie 2, Defenseman 1 is a likely distribution there. Maybe it becomes Foward 6, and Goalie 3 with Martin getting in, again she has a great reputation and stats but her record isn't so great and she hasn't had as many starts as some of the other top contenders, or started every big game like some of the other contenders.

Great Info.
IMHO, the Kaz is about more than season points (its officially about much more than points obviously, but its not always voted that way). The kaz is about a number of characteristics both on and off the ice. On the ice, yes its about points, but its also about leadership, +/-, playing at both ends of the ice, and most importantly performing at a top level against top talent. my point in this post is exactly that. i've looked through the stats of the top 6 kaz watch offensive weapons mentioned in the above post (Wakefield and Fortino are only left out becaus ei didint have the time to compile their stats), and have compared their statistics in games against teams with .500 or better records. note, i disagree with a Freshman winning this prestigous award but i have included Philip-Poulin anyway.
i will say the obvious, that im a wisconsin fan, but the statistics below dont lie.

Wisco - 14 of 24 games (58%) have been played vs teams with .500 of better record
MHurst - 5 of 23 games (22%)have been played vs teams with .500 of better record
BU -11 of 23 games (48%)have been played vs teams with .500 of better record
UMD - 14 of 20 games (70%) have been played vs teams with .500 of better record

Duggan 14 games, 13G, 18A, 31pts, +30, 2.21ppg, +2.14 per game
Knight 14 games, 14G, 12A, 26pts, +25, 1.85ppg, +1.79 per game
Agosta 5 games, 3G, 4A, 7pts, -3, 1.40ppg, -0.60 per game
Bendus 5 games, 1G, 7A, 8pts, 3, 1.60ppg, +0.60 per game
Irwin 14 games, 8G, 12A, 20pts, +11, 1.43ppg, +0.78 per game
Philip-Poulin 11 games, 10G, 13A, 23pts, +11, 2.09ppg, +1.0 per game

Here are my conclusions:
Of the top 6 Kaz candidates there are clear trends as to who is playing at the top level against the best D1 Women's Hockey has to offer, and who is piling on points against the lower talent. As i mentioned above, while points are not the ONLY judging point for this award, i strongly believe that players who prove they can perform and succeed against the best talent are far close to "the Patty" than those who dont

based on the point list above,...

... The mercyhurst schedule does not provide Agosta and Bendus enough exposure to top talent, and in the 5 games that it has, they have not performed anywher near their overall season stats. Agosta's 1.40ppg is half of her full season 2.59ppg and her -0.60 +/- is a strong indicator of her lack of defensive focus in big games. Bendus missed the Wisc game so in 4 games vs teams of .500+ she has recorded only 1 goal and like Agosta her +/- is lacking. a significant percentage of their points are coming against bottom tier teams (SCSU, SLU, 'Cuse, Wayne, etc)

... Irwin's 1.60 ppg is very close to her season ppg of 2.0 although her avg +/- in these games vs .500+ talent is on the low side at +0.78. She had great games against OSU (3G,3A,+4) and Minny (3G,1A,+2), but has struggled against ND, Bemidji, and Wisco (1G,7A,+5 in those 8 games).

...Philip-Poulin has performed well in her 11 games vs .500+ teams. her 2.09 is higher than the season average of 2.0ppg which indicates she has brought her A game vs the best teams. This is further illustrated in her games vs ND (2G,1A,+4), and (1G,3A,E) vs BC. Her +/- has struggled against lower level teams like Princeton and Maine, but overall the numbers are solid

...Knight's 1.85ppg against the top teams is only slightly below her season average of 2.12, and her +25 is over 60% of her season +/-. She has played well against the top teams wisconsin has faced., including 2G,2A,+3 nights against both Northeastern and Mhurst in back to back nights. i know i don't need to school anyone on Hilary's offensive prowess, but these numbers indicate she is piling up her stats against top talent, and not the bottom tier.

...Duggan looks to shine the best of the group in big games according to these numbers. her 31 points is good for 2.21ppg, slightly higher than her season average of 2.08ppg. she has also averaged a +2.14 in games vs team .500 or better. This is by far the highest in the group. so too is her stat that 67% of her +/- comes against .500 or better teams. not only has Duggan proved herself at the offensive end, but with the highest avg +/- it is clear she is living up to her reputation as the best 2 way player in the world.

again, i did not mean to leave out Wakefield and Fortino, but did not have the time to add their stats. do what you wish with these statistics. i believe it further illustrates the separation of overall talent in this kaz watch grouping. The best players, play their best, against the best.

[dave1381]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Thanks for the great posts everyone.

Badgerfan11 -- that's an excellent breakdown of the stats. I hadn't done a systematic analysis myself, but my impression from the handful of games I've seen and the many box scores I've looked over was that Duggan and Knight have been by far the most productive against the best opponents, with a slight edge to Duggan. That's why I've said they're the leading candidates. The Minnesota and UMD series will of course be crucial to the outcome.

mattj711 -- I agree Johnston's a strong candidate. I know she's made the 10 before, and she had an awesome 4 Nations Cup. Yet Statwise she's not matching the other top candidates, neither in total stats or in points in Cornell's biggest games of the season. I kind of always figured her for the 10 and was waiting for her to have one dominant offensive performance against one of the best teams in the country to make her a clear choice, but that's never happened. Now I certainly would expect that Cornell's forwards are contributing to team defense more than some other top contenders, but it's something that's tougher to measure. It may be that I'm underestimating how much respect Johnston has and what lasting impression she's left on Cornell opponents that go beyond the offensive stats, But she's squarely on the bubble in a year with so many other strong forward candidates.

comefrombehind -- I'd noticed Rougeau had a better +/-. I wonder how the +/- looks when adjusted for strength-of-schedule. I figure support will go more towards Fortino since she has more goals & points, she was the First Team All-American last year, and she's older, but clearly there's no huge gap between the two, and it's tough with a deep and balanced team like Cornell to single out individual recognition.

OnMAA -- my prior expectation this season was also that Johnston would outperform Bendus on ice. In my mind, Bendus does benefit on ice from having a really strong performance in Mercyhurst's first meeting against Cornell, As for academics, it's hard to tell how much they'll matter. I'd say generally coaches look on-ice first and off-ice second. In the case of Bendus and Johnston, they're close enough that it could make a difference. Without the academics, I agree Bendus would be much more on the bubble, but I'm thinking she'll make the 10 with the momentum from last year's win, that one standout game against Cornell, solid overall stats, and better academics than anyone. It makes it tough to exclude her.

[dave1381]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Lacasse just put up some absolutely sick stats in net today for PC against BC -- 33 saves in one period, as PC took 4 whistles and several minutes of two-man advantages. For the night, 51 saves, 1 goal allowed. Lacasse is now 3rd in the nation in save pct behind only Raty and Mazzotta. I'd say she's more deserving of the second goalie Kaz 10 slot I had predicted for Schaus this morning.

[OnMAA]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

I'd noticed Rougeau had a better +/-. I wonder how the +/- looks when adjusted for strength-of-schedule. I figure support will go more towards Fortino since she has more goals & points, she was the First Team All-American last year, and she's older, but clearly there's no huge gap between the two, and it's tough with a deep and balanced team like Cornell to single out individual recognition..

I think you got your ages backwards. While they are both Sophs, Rougeau is the older of the two. Rougeau is a '90, Fortino a '91.

[dave1381]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

oops, yeah, I have no idea what I was thinking there. Post enough too quickly and you're bound to write something stupid. Thanks.

[Radar3535]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Lacasse just put up some absolutely sick stats in net today for PC against BC -- 33 saves in one period, as PC took 4 whistles and several minutes of two-man advantages. For the night, 51 saves, 1 goal allowed. Lacasse is now 3rd in the nation in save pct behind only Raty and Mazzotta. I'd say she's more deserving of the second goalie Kaz 10 slot I had predicted for Schaus this morning.

But, but... what happened to Weber? she was in the mix up till last week ( just ask Jersey)!

[dave1381]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

One point of interest -- the voting is scheduled later this season than in the past. The Top 10 vote takes place after the conclusion of conference regular season play (for all leagues but the CHA), and the voting for the winner takes place after the conference championships.

2002 is the only year that stands out where I think the timing would've made a difference in the voting. Perhaps 2007 as well.

[ARM]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

USA Hockey has started their player features for the Kazmaier Award.

Vicki Bendus

Hilary Knight

[uradonkey]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Should be their teammates.

Agosta & Duggan

[rinkrat890890]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Should be their teammates.

Agosta & Duggan

That's not very nice!

[dave1381]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

So next weekend is the last before nominations, and two weekends for now is the top 10 voting.

Here's my assessment of the 10 race:

Locks:
F Duggan, Knight, Agosta, Bendus
D Fortino
G Raty

Leaders:
F JLam, MLam-Kolls, Philip-Poulin
G Schaus

Bubble
F Stack, Irwin, Wakefield
G Lacasse

Distribution:
7 F, 2 G, 1 D
5 WCHA, 2 CHA, 2 HEA, 1 ECAC
2 Wisconsin, Mercyhurst, UND; 1 Cornell, BU, BC, Minnesota

A few other comments:
-- What's Irwin's status now? The Lam's coming on strong really bumped her out.
-- Providence's Lacasse still a shot, but I think Providence just has to win more games, and it was tough enough already for her to get votes from Schaus.
-- Philip-Poulin and Wakefield have both cooled off a bit. Stack is making a strong case. This Beanpot game Tuesday could be decisive. It's the last of 4 games between the teams but coming so close to the voting it'll be important.

Also I notice Stack has a large lead in Hockey East scoring. To the extent coaches may value conference play, that could give Stack an edge in the 10 race.

[ARM]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

-- What's Irwin's status now? The Lam's coming on strong really bumped her out.

I'd say it is more like her not playing is hurting her chances. She still leads both Lam's in PPG, but she has only played in 19 games so she doesn't appear in the national PPG leaders list. UMD and UND are very close in season performance to date; NoDak leads in conference points, but they still have to play UW. Duluth is ahead in the rankings, but more was expected of them, while the Sioux, despite all of the talk of them being more than a 2-person team, would be behind Bemidji and Ohio State without the Lam's. Does that validate North Dakota getting 2 in the Kaz Top 10 while the Bulldogs get zero? It is hard to separate Jo and Mo, because their numbers and contribution are nearly identical, but Irwin was having a bigger season until she got hurt.

[JosephPSchmoe]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

-- What's Irwin's status now? The Lam's coming on strong really bumped her out.

Irwin's numbers don't have anything to do with anybody else. She's injured and she's missed seven games. That's a lot of down time and will probably cost her as far as the Kaz, but how often do they get that right anyway?