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D2D
03-03-2011, 11:25 PM
Interesting take on reality.... http://sports.espn.go.com/ncaa/news/story?id=6178652

File this one under the "Misleading Headlines" category...how do we know which of the 10 finalists "leads" the others?

dave1381
03-07-2011, 07:56 PM
So, all the games have been played that are relevant, and all the voting is done.

Final 3 will be announced Thursday.

I'll update my projection from last week. I expect the final three will be three conference players of the years who also each had quite visible impacts on their conference tournaments. I project:

Meghan Agosta, Mercyhurst
Meghan Duggan, Wisconsin
Kelli Stack, BC

I probably haven't given Stack as top 3 buzz in past posts because she hasn't measured up to the other candidates in the point totals, but she had a crucial OT game-winner goal in her league tournament, won her league Player of the Year, and helped her team get home ice for NCAAs and conference title. She will get a lot votes from the East. Another perspective is that she's the best player in the country who doesn't have nearly as much talent around her. I don't think that'll be enough for her to win the award, but I expect to see her in the Final 3 come Thursday.

IceIsNice
03-07-2011, 08:02 PM
I agree with Agosta and Duggan, and I also agree that the third will come from BC......but I'm thinking it'll be their "keeper", Molly Schaus. Stack is definitely of worthy consideration, but I think Ms. Schaus had a bigger overall impact on BC's season than Ms. Stack did.

dave1381
03-07-2011, 08:13 PM
Schaus also had a fine season and is a Bauer/Bendus-caliber student, but I look at Schaus' season and it's hard to find as many dominant games as you would think. For Stack, it's absurd how many games there were when BC won say 2-1 or 3-2 and she provided the majority of the scoring. Most of BC's toughest games were within Hockey East, and Stack already won Hockey East Player of the Year, so I stand by that prediction.

ARM
03-07-2011, 08:19 PM
... Stack already won Hockey East Player of the Year, so I stand by that prediction.PotY is typically an offensive award. E.g., Hilary Knight, not Jessie Vetter, won in 2009 in the WCHA.

dave1381
03-07-2011, 08:35 PM
PotY is typically an offensive award. E.g., Hilary Knight, not Jessie Vetter, won in 2009 in the WCHA.

It depends to some extent on the league. The ECAC has a specific goalie of the year award that's voted on and somewhat redundant when you have a All-League first team goaltender. WCHA has a defensive player of the year (though it's usually a defenseman?), and an award for goaltending champion. Hockey East is a bit more limited in awards. UConn's goalie was announced as a runner-up. But I still believe Stack had a better season than Schaus.

ARM
03-07-2011, 08:44 PM
WCHA has a defensive player of the year (though it's usually a defenseman?), and an award for goaltending champion.From memory, WCHA DPotY has always been a D. Goaltending champ is strictly a numbers deal, and it isn't always the first-team goalie. Now that I think of it, Felicia Nelson and Zuzana Tomcikova did share WCHA PotY last year. Kind of an odd pairing, with two players on different teams playing completely different positions; I guess a tie is a tie. But I don't remember a goalie winning the award outright. Anyway, I think there is some merit to Hux' post a while back -- what is more important, Stack's late goal, or Schaus holding down the fort until Stack finally scored? If she's allowed a handful of goals, then Stack's play is a footnote. For example, Schaus has given up 5 goals total in BC's last 5 games. Granted, there isn't a ton of offense in that league.

granddaddyscout
03-07-2011, 11:51 PM
It depends to some extent on the league. The ECAC has a specific goalie of the year award that's voted on and somewhat redundant when you have a All-League first team goaltender. WCHA has a defensive player of the year (though it's usually a defenseman?), and an award for goaltending champion. Hockey East is a bit more limited in awards. UConn's goalie was announced as a runner-up. But I still believe Stack had a better season than Schaus.

Stack is a great player, but I think she falls short of the Duggan, Agosta, Knight, level of offensive players. I also don't think Stack is as well rounded as a player and falls short in some of the off ice elements as well. I like your picks though because it helps Duggan avoid bleed off votes to Knight.

dave1381
03-08-2011, 12:19 AM
Stack is a great player, but I think she falls short of the Duggan, Agosta, Knight, level of offensive players. I also don't think Stack is as well rounded as a player and falls short in some of the off ice elements as well. I like your picks though because it helps Duggan avoid bleed off votes to Knight.
If you read Mark's statements on the players, he carefully chooses language to suggest that Duggan is his favorite, while saying enough nice things about Knight to keep her top 3 hopes alive. I don't see anyone going against Mark's endorsement. http://www.uwbadgers.com/sports/w-hockey/spec-rel/030311aab.html

Second, since the Kaz selection committee interacts, it's much less likely you'll see the committee splits votes for teammates, as you might see for something like baseball MVP voting, where 28 writers independently select their picks.

True North 3
03-08-2011, 07:30 AM
Stack has done an great job leading her team this season, and brought that Olympic experience back to BC with her. She was the dominant player for her team and in Hockey East this season. However, I think past indiscretions have made her chance at the top three slim to none. It's a hard lesson to learn at such a young age, but maybe other players will use it as an example of why what the do off the ice is as important as what they do on.

zamboni99
03-08-2011, 09:09 AM
Interesting take on reality.... http://sports.espn.go.com/ncaa/news/story?id=6178652

That's 7-17-24 in conference for 1.71 PPG, and 19-33-52 overall for 1.79 PPG.

dave1381
03-10-2011, 10:17 AM
So, all the games have been played that are relevant, and all the voting is done.

Final 3 will be announced Thursday.

I'll update my projection from last week. I expect the final three will be three conference players of the years who also each had quite visible impacts on their conference tournaments. I project:

Meghan Agosta, Mercyhurst
Meghan Duggan, Wisconsin
Kelli Stack, BC

I probably haven't given Stack as top 3 buzz in past posts because she hasn't measured up to the other candidates in the point totals, but she had a crucial OT game-winner goal in her league tournament, won her league Player of the Year, and helped her team get home ice for NCAAs and conference title. She will get a lot votes from the East. Another perspective is that she's the best player in the country who doesn't have nearly as much talent around her. I don't think that'll be enough for her to win the award, but I expect to see her in the Final 3 come Thursday.

Now official: http://www.usahockey.com/patty_kazmaier/default.aspx?NAV=AF&id=300716&DetailedNews=yes

ARM
03-10-2011, 10:35 AM
http://www.usahockey.com/patty_kazmaier/default.aspx?NAV=AF&id=300716&DetailedNews=yes
NOTES: Meghan Agosta is the second top-three finalist from Mercyhurst College (Vicki Bendus-2010 winner)Can you truly be the second top-three finalist from Mercyhurst if you were three times previous the first?

PTS34
03-10-2011, 10:41 AM
Not a fan of Stack over Knight, but I'm pretty sure she wouldn't have won anyway and is the only one of the two with a shot at winning it next year (I think she will). This is definitely going to be VERY close between Agosta and Duggan. If there is ever going to be anyone to split the award it would be them. Ultimately, I think it will be Duggan as she seems to really bring in the all other parameters that the award considers.

Travelingman
03-10-2011, 12:06 PM
Kudo's to all Top 3 Finalists. I have spent sometime looking at the overall stats after reading some of the posts here. Here is what I have to say. Most people didn't even look at Stack as a top 3 finalist (including myself) I thought it would be Agosta, Duggan and Knight based on points alone. But after studying the statistics it has lead me to believe that Stack has had the greatest impact on her team overall. If Stack did not play for BC they would not even be a 500 team. Here are some staggering stats IMO. Just food for thought but they are amazing stats when you look at the big picture.

Number of Players on each team in the top 50 in scoring:

Wiso: 5 Mercyhurst: 7 BC: 2

Goals Scored By Team:

Wiso: 203 Mercyhurst: 175 BC: 100 (I mean Stack has scored 1/3 of her teams goals!!!) I believe if BC had 1 or 2 more players in the top 50 that Stacks points would be through the roof in both goals and assists.

In Power Play % - Wisco and Mercyhurst are 1 and 2 while BC is 15.

Scoring Offense - Wisco 1@ 5.34, Mercyhurst 2@ 5.21 and BC 12@2.86

Duggan has played 5 more games than Agosta and 4 more than Stack.

Almost all of BC's games have been a goal differential of 1 to 2 goals the most being 4 once I believe. While both Mercyhurst and Wisco have had large goal differentials. Wisco beating teams by 10 at least 2 maybe 3 times.

Then there is the argument of the difficulty in league play, and strength of schedule. Everyone will have their opinion here. I think it speaks for itself. I will leave that for another post.

All are tremendous players but Stack to me has made the biggest impact to her team. In fact the statistics blew me away today. Congrats to all 3 Finalist.

Looking forward to some great hockey this weekend in Boston.

BadgerFan11
03-10-2011, 12:39 PM
Kudo's to all Top 3 Finalists. I have spent sometime looking at the overall stats after reading some of the posts here. Here is what I have to say. Most people didn't even look at Stack as a top 3 finalist (including myself) I thought it would be Agosta, Duggan and Knight based on points alone. But after studying the statistics it has lead me to believe that Stack has had the greatest impact on her team overall. If Stack did not play for BC they would not even be a 500 team. Here are some staggering stats IMO. Just food for thought but they are amazing stats when you look at the big picture.

Number of Players on each team in the top 50 in scoring:

Wiso: 5 Mercyhurst: 7 BC: 2

Goals Scored By Team:

Wiso: 203 Mercyhurst: 175 BC: 100 (I mean Stack has scored 1/3 of her teams goals!!!) I believe if BC had 1 or 2 more players in the top 50 that Stacks points would be through the roof in both goals and assists.

In Power Play % - Wisco and Mercyhurst are 1 and 2 while BC is 15.

Scoring Offense - Wisco 1@ 5.34, Mercyhurst 2@ 5.21 and BC 12@2.86

Duggan has played 5 more games than Agosta and 4 more than Stack.

Almost all of BC's games have been a goal differential of 1 to 2 goals the most being 4 once I believe. While both Mercyhurst and Wisco have had large goal differentials. Wisco beating teams by 10 at least 2 maybe 3 times.

Then there is the argument of the difficulty in league play, and strength of schedule. Everyone will have their opinion here. I think it speaks for itself. I will leave that for another post.

All are tremendous players but Stack to me has made the biggest impact to her team. In fact the statistics blew me away today. Congrats to all 3 Finalist.

Looking forward to some great hockey this weekend in Boston.

"the Patty Kazmaier Memorial Award is presented annually to the top player in NCAA Division I women’s ice hockey. Other selection criteria include outstanding individual and team skills, sportsmanship, performance in the clutch, personal character, competitiveness and a love of hockey. Consideration is also given to academic achievement and civic involvement."

this is not a "best impact for her team" award. it is the best player (on and off the ice) in D1 womens hockey. Put Stack in the WCHA and see what imact she would have against top talent. Frankly, i imagined that past indiscretions (see above bolded text in description) would have and should have removed a player from such a momentous award because while the best hockey players deserve it, the best players who are also great students, leaders and community advocates deserve it more. i'm incredibly surprised to not see Knight in this top 3. or even Schaus / Fortino before Stack.

Either way, its clear that this is a two-person race at this point so theres not much use in arguing the above point. For pure hockey skills, the race is very close. Agost is the best goal scorer in the country and is an amazing offensive talent, there is no arguing that (until Knight takes that crown). However, Duggan's well rounded, unselfish play in both the offensive and defensive zones give her a slight edge IMO.
Because their offensive on-ice talents are so close, the difference-maker will come down to the intangibles. namely Sportsmanship, leadership, and other important off-ice talents. Its no surprise that Wisco suffered drastically without Johnson, Knight and Duggan last year. And Wisconsin players, coaches and administration has made no secret of the fact that the return of Duggan's leadership was the key ingredient in going from a 2009 team that missed the playoffs, to the best team in the country in 2010.

dave1381
03-10-2011, 12:45 PM
Kudo's to all Top 3 Finalists. I have spent sometime looking at the overall stats after reading some of the posts here. Here is what I have to say. Most people didn't even look at Stack as a top 3 finalist (including myself) I thought it would be Agosta, Duggan and Knight based on points alone. But after studying the statistics it has lead me to believe that Stack has had the greatest impact on her team overall. If Stack did not play for BC they would not even be a 500 team. Here are some staggering stats IMO. Just food for thought but they are amazing stats when you look at the big picture.

...
Then there is the argument of the difficulty in league play, and strength of schedule. Everyone will have their opinion here. I think it speaks for itself. I will leave that for another post.

All are tremendous players but Stack to me has made the biggest impact to her team. In fact the statistics blew me away today. Congrats to all 3 Finalist.


I agree with your analysis on Stack, complete with "overlooking her as a Top 3 Finalist most of the season."

I think you can make a strong case that Stack has performed better offensively than anyone in women's college hockey history with a comparable level of talent or worse around her. That doesn't necessarily mean I think she deserves the award though. Duggan has also performed exceptionally, and though she has more talent around her than Stack, Duggan has made appropriate use of that talent around her.

dave1381
03-10-2011, 12:58 PM
Frankly, i imagined that past indiscretions (see above bolded text in description) would have and should have removed a player from such a momentous award because while the best hockey players deserve it, the best players who are also great students, leaders and community advocates deserve it more.
Frankly, I don't see how one's personal mistakes from 2007, whatever they may be, matter in the selection of the 2010-11 Patty Kazmaier Award. I also don't recall Kelli Stack ever suffering any suspension or punishment from Boston College. I've read nothing but positive things from her coach and her opponents about her character this season.

OnMAA
03-10-2011, 12:59 PM
Can you truly be the second top-three finalist from Mercyhurst if you were three times previous the first?

I had to read that tong twister carefully twice, but IMHO the answer to your query should be No.

Personally I'm shocked Knight is not on this list.

ARM
03-10-2011, 01:29 PM
Duggan has also performed exceptionally, and though she has more talent around her than Stack, Duggan has made appropriate use of that talent around her.Where Duggan has stood out for me is how she has performed in games where Wisconsin has been trailing. When UW fell behind Ohio State 3-1 early this season (http://collegehockeystats.net/1011/boxes/wosuwis1.o22), Duggan scored 15 seconds later and then had primary assists on a goal to make it 4-4 in the third and the OT gamewinner. When they trailed UMD (http://collegehockeystats.net/1011/boxes/wmndwis1.n26) 2-0, she had a primary assist and then scored to make it 2-2 with 25 seconds to go. Then in the big comeback in the WCHA championhip (http://collegehockeystats.net/1011/boxes/wminwis1.m05), she had a second period goal plus scored to tie it with under 5 to play. Given Wisconsin hasn't had too many times where they've been behind, she's risen to the occasion when they have.