D-III Tourney Speculation 2/1 edition

[spwood]

Thought I would spend my lunch hour going through this...here is my speculation. For the Pool A spots, I took the conference leaders as the Pool A bids:

ECAC East: Manhattanville
ECAC West: Plattsburgh State
NESCAC: Middlebury
MIAC: St. Thomas

For Pool B, it was essentially a comparison between Lake Forest and UWRF. Lake Forest has a better record, but in looking, I could find no wins against teams I considered in contention for the tournament, while UWRF has wins against St. Thomas (home and away) and St. Catherines.

Pool B: UW-River Falls

For Pool C, it seems pretty obvious that Amherst would get a spot in this scenario (4 wins again TUC - RIT, Plattsburgh (neutral), Middlebury, and @ Elmira with a loss to Elmira on neutral ice. The other spot was more interesting: I think Elmira is the best of the rest of the east, eliminating Trinity, Norwich, and RIT from further consideration). The West could put forth Gustavus Adolphus, St. Catherines, or Lake Forest. It would seem on the surface that GAC would be the best bet. While Lake Forest has the best record, they have no wins on their resume against TUC. St. Catherines and GAC have very similar cases, with one exception: GAC owns a win over River Falls, and that, to me, put GAC as the top western team left. So now, for the last Pool C spot, we have Elmira (15-4-1) vs. GAC (10-4-2).

Elmira : wins over Manhattanville (road), Middlebury (road), Amherst (neutral), and RIT (road). losses to Plattsburgh (2 - road), Manhattanville (road), Amherst (home) 4-4 in "big games"

Gustavus Adolphus: wins over River Falls (home), St. Catherines (road). losses to St. Thomas (home), St. Catherines (home).

My head tells me Elmira should get the last bid, but if the NCAA is set on having the tourney in the west, it's close enough to give the bid to GAC and have three western teams to guarantee 2 in the Phinal Phour.

Assuming the tourney is in the west (and River Falls can host the Phinal Phour):

St. Thomas @ GAC
Middlebury @ Plattsburgh
Manhattanville @ Amherst
River Falls (Bye)

Just my $.02 and a way to pass my lunch hour!

[nbound]

Re: D-III Tourney Speculation 2/1 edition

Thought I would spend my lunch hour going through this...here is my speculation. For the Pool A spots, I took the conference leaders as the Pool A bids:

ECAC East: Manhattanville
ECAC West: Plattsburgh State
NESCAC: Middlebury
MIAC: St. Thomas

For Pool B, it was essentially a comparison between Lake Forest and UWRF. Lake Forest has a better record, but in looking, I could find no wins against teams I considered in contention for the tournament, while UWRF has wins against St. Thomas (home and away) and St. Catherines.

Pool B: UW-River Falls

For Pool C, it seems pretty obvious that Amherst would get a spot in this scenario (4 wins again TUC - RIT, Plattsburgh (neutral), Middlebury, and @ Elmira with a loss to Elmira on neutral ice. The other spot was more interesting: I think Elmira is the best of the rest of the east, eliminating Trinity, Norwich, and RIT from further consideration). The West could put forth Gustavus Adolphus, St. Catherines, or Lake Forest. It would seem on the surface that GAC would be the best bet. While Lake Forest has the best record, they have no wins on their resume against TUC. St. Catherines and GAC have very similar cases, with one exception: GAC owns a win over River Falls, and that, to me, put GAC as the top western team left. So now, for the last Pool C spot, we have Elmira (15-4-1) vs. GAC (10-4-2).

Elmira : wins over Manhattanville (road), Middlebury (road), Amherst (neutral), and RIT (road). losses to Plattsburgh (2 - road), Manhattanville (road), Amherst (home) 4-4 in "big games"

Gustavus Adolphus: wins over River Falls (home), St. Catherines (road). losses to St. Thomas (home), St. Catherines (home).

My head tells me Elmira should get the last bid, but if the NCAA is set on having the tourney in the west, it's close enough to give the bid to GAC and have three western teams to guarantee 2 in the Phinal Phour.

Assuming the tourney is in the west (and River Falls can host the Phinal Phour):

St. Thomas @ GAC
Middlebury @ Plattsburgh
Manhattanville @ Amherst
River Falls (Bye)

Just my $.02 and a way to pass my lunch hour!

If I'm not mistaking(which I often do ) There is no pool B this year as the NCHA has an automatic qualifier. Don't be surprised if a Pool C spot goes to a western team

[PrezdeJohnson09]

Re: D-III Tourney Speculation 2/1 edition

If I'm not mistaking(which I often do ) There is no pool B this year as the NCHA has an automatic qualifier. Don't be surprised if a Pool C spot goes to a western team

You are correct.

the NCHA is an autobid now and there is no Pool B.

Steve's speculation though is still pretty spot on. Just throw either Lake Forest or River Falls into the discussion for Pool C.

I'd say the west's best hope for the best chance at getting three teams in is hoping GAC and Lake Forest are the Pool C contenders and hoping Plattsburgh wins the ECAC West.

Plattsburgh baring a collapse is all but a lock for this tournament right now.

The NESCAC is starting to get very very interesting with Trinity and Amherst faltering this weekend.

Parity is rampant across the board this year and the selection committe is probably going to have one of the longest discussions in the history of D-III women's hockey this year deciding who hosts this thing and if they are going to do a 4-3 split or a 5-2 split.

[nbound]

Re: D-III Tourney Speculation 2/1 edition

You are correct.

the NCHA is an autobid now and there is no Pool B.

Steve's speculation though is still pretty spot on. Just throw either Lake Forest or River Falls into the discussion for Pool C.

I'd say the west's best hope for the best chance at getting three teams in is hoping GAC and Lake Forest are the Pool C contenders and hoping Plattsburgh wins the ECAC West.

Plattsburgh baring a collapse is all but a lock for this tournament right now.

The NESCAC is starting to get very very interesting with Trinity and Amherst faltering this weekend.

Parity is rampant across the board this year and the selection committe is probably going to have one of the longest discussions in the history of D-III women's hockey this year deciding who hosts this thing and if they are going to do a 4-3 split or a 5-2 split.

Personally I believe there are possibly only two Western teams that deserve being in the tourny. Lake Forest and the Miac Winner. But they may not win their tourny and get the AQ. I think a Western team will get a Pool C if the NC$$ has it's way to make it a 4-3 split and save on travel costs.

[spwood]

Re: D-III Tourney Speculation 2/1 edition

You are correct.

the NCHA is an autobid now and there is no Pool B.

I got my information from USCHO.com's NCAA discussion for Div III women - they still list a Pool B bid - because I couldn't remember. Derek, maybe you could mention that to someone to get it updated?

I think that Lake Forest has a tough case to make to get in as an at-large over GAC, River Falls (should neither Lake Forest or UWRF win the NCHA), Elmira, Middlebury, Plattsburgh, or Amherst. They have a good record, but are lacking any good wins on their schedule. Strength of schedule does mean something (see Adrian's men's team the last few years).

[spike]

Re: D-III Tourney Speculation 2/1 edition

Thought I would spend my lunch hour going through this...here is my speculation. For the Pool A spots, I took the conference leaders as the Pool A bids:

ECAC East: Manhattanville
ECAC West: Plattsburgh State
NESCAC: Middlebury
MIAC: St. Thomas

For Pool B, it was essentially a comparison between Lake Forest and UWRF. Lake Forest has a better record, but in looking, I could find no wins against teams I considered in contention for the tournament, while UWRF has wins against St. Thomas (home and away) and St. Catherines.

Pool B: UW-River Falls

For Pool C, it seems pretty obvious that Amherst would get a spot in this scenario (4 wins again TUC - RIT, Plattsburgh (neutral), Middlebury, and @ Elmira with a loss to Elmira on neutral ice. The other spot was more interesting: I think Elmira is the best of the rest of the east, eliminating Trinity, Norwich, and RIT from further consideration). The West could put forth Gustavus Adolphus, St. Catherines, or Lake Forest. It would seem on the surface that GAC would be the best bet. While Lake Forest has the best record, they have no wins on their resume against TUC. St. Catherines and GAC have very similar cases, with one exception: GAC owns a win over River Falls, and that, to me, put GAC as the top western team left. So now, for the last Pool C spot, we have Elmira (15-4-1) vs. GAC (10-4-2).

Elmira : wins over Manhattanville (road), Middlebury (road), Amherst (neutral), and RIT (road). losses to Plattsburgh (2 - road), Manhattanville (road), Amherst (home) 4-4 in "big games"

Gustavus Adolphus: wins over River Falls (home), St. Catherines (road). losses to St. Thomas (home), St. Catherines (home).

My head tells me Elmira should get the last bid, but if the NCAA is set on having the tourney in the west, it's close enough to give the bid to GAC and have three western teams to guarantee 2 in the Phinal Phour.

Assuming the tourney is in the west (and River Falls can host the Phinal Phour):

St. Thomas @ GAC
Middlebury @ Plattsburgh
Manhattanville @ Amherst
River Falls (Bye)

Just my $.02 and a way to pass my lunch hour!

I think there are two problems with your analysis that would have a big impact. First, I think it is incorrect to assume that Middlebury gets the NESCAC auto bid. Amherst and Middlebury are tied with 19 points, but Amherst owns the tie-breaker. So, I think your analysis should pencil in Amherst as the auto bid. That puts Midd into Pool C in place of Amherst, which dramatically changes your analysis. In that scenario you have to like Elmira. The second issue is your assessment of Lake Forest. To say they don't have enough quality wins is in effect saying there aren't enough quality teams in the West. They have wins over UWS, UWSP, and Adrian. I think the upcoming series with UWRF will clarify the LF/RF situation.

If my scenario is correct, I think the key is Middlebury and Lake Forest. If Midd continues their recent trend (but don't win NESCAC playoff), and if LF wins NCHA, then we have to be looking at a 5-2 split with RF going on vacation early. Nothing personal here, I have consistently ranked RF higher on my weekly poll than most, I just don't see how they can get through given the above scenario.

[gojackets]

Re: D-III Tourney Speculation 2/1 edition

I wasn't sure if you did or did not acknowledge that Lake Forest's loss to UMass-Boston DOES come into play when Lake Forest is compared to the eastern teams in the Pool C process.

It's irrelevant when compared to west teams but not when compared to any of the eastern teams.

rather than clogging up the fan poll thread...


I said it comes into play in secondary criteria. I don't believe it comes into play until then. It would affect common opponents, but thats about it. The only team in the hunt that Adrian affects is RIT...RIT is 2-0 against them while Lake Forest is 1-1.

So Norwich, Mville, Middlebury would win common opponents against LFC, which would hurt them in that category, but I think they still win out in the rest. The game doesn't count in OWP, OOWP etc until secondary criteria

[gojackets]

Re: D-III Tourney Speculation 2/1 edition

I think that Lake Forest has a tough case to make to get in as an at-large over GAC, River Falls (should neither Lake Forest or UWRF win the NCHA), Elmira, Middlebury, Plattsburgh, or Amherst. They have a good record, but are lacking any good wins on their schedule. Strength of schedule does mean something (see Adrian's men's team the last few years).

Thats a little different. Remember Lake Forests conference has 78% of its teams with a .500 or b etter record. That means they are winning in conference and out. Whereas the MCHA more or less sucks, the NCHA women is pretty darn good.

RIT has to win the ECAC-w to be considered. If Amherst wins the NESCAC, which they are tied for and hold the tiebreaker(i would assume) then Middlebury should be out. I think Lake Forest's fate comes down to their series with River Falls.

[videohockey]

Re: D-III Tourney Speculation 2/1 edition

Thats a little different. Remember Lake Forests conference has 78% of its teams with a .500 or b etter record. That means they are winning in conference and out.

RIT has to win the ECAC-w to be considered. If Amherst wins the NESCAC, which they are tied for and hold the tiebreaker(i would assume) then Middlebury should be out. I think Lake Forest's fate comes down to their series with River Falls.

And if the ECAC-W shakes out as it appears:
RIT/Potsdam and Utica/Neuman in the Quarters
and assuming RIT takes care of business, they would face Elmira (0-1-1) in the Semis, with the winner of Utica/Neuman looking at Platty

[nyi19]

Re: D-III Tourney Speculation 2/1 edition

Personally I believe there are possibly only two Western teams that deserve being in the tourny. Lake Forest and the Miac Winner. But they may not win their tourny and get the AQ. I think a Western team will get a Pool C if the NC$$ has it's way to make it a 4-3 split and save on travel costs.

I mentioned this a few weeks ago. They wouldn't have to make it a 4-3 split necessarily. In 2006, Plattsburgh was No. 1, hosted NCAAs, but didn't get a first-round bye. Gustavus got the bye in a 4-3 split. It could still be a 5-2 with the western host having to play a quarterfinal game. Precedent has been set once before.

[gojackets]

Re: D-III Tourney Speculation 2/1 edition

I mentioned this a few weeks ago. They wouldn't have to make it a 4-3 split necessarily. In 2006, Plattsburgh was No. 1, hosted NCAAs, but didn't get a first-round bye. Gustavus got the bye in a 4-3 split. It could still be a 5-2 with the western host having to play a quarterfinal game. Precedent has been set once before.

In that situation they flew two teams, if they do a 5-2 split this season and host it in the west, their would be a need to fly 3 teams. I really don't think anyone can get too horribly upset with a 4-3 split this year. The competition across the board is pretty good. The only way I could see it is if Platty lost in the ECAC-w's and didn't make the tourney which would be mind boggling.

there have been several good west teams held out in the past due to economic sustainability. they did fly 3 teams west for a D3 men's frozen four a few years back when they could have easily, with fairly little uproar guaranteed a 2-2 FF. People were fairly shocked, as the other western team would have been superior..who was the predetermined host.

[D2D]

Re: D-III Tourney Speculation 2/1 edition

It's a bit amazing to me that the Junior/AAA teams fly all over the continent just to play as many regular season games as they do, but what it cost figures so prominently in deciding where to play a NCAA D3 championship.

[gojackets]

Re: D-III Tourney Speculation 2/1 edition

It's a bit amazing to me that the Junior/AAA teams fly all over the continent just to play as many regular season games as they do, but what it cost figures so prominently in deciding where to play a NCAA D3 championship.

junior teams are paid for by whom??

[futurestar]

Re: D-III Tourney Speculation 2/1 edition

junior teams are paid for by whom??

I learned a new saying in another thread. It goes:

Players Play
Refs Ref
Coaches Coach
Parents Pay

(I thought it was cheer!)

Tell me again, why do I have to pay $500 for your Lacrosse team trip to Florida?

[D2D]

Re: D-III Tourney Speculation 2/1 edition

junior teams are paid for by whom??

Yeah I know that but it still strikes me as ironic and also unfortunate. This is a collegiate national championship after all, and there is just one each year, whereas junior players are flying all over the place throughout the entire season. It's a shame that, once they "graduate" to college, travel expenses more or less decide where their tournament will be held.