'09-'10 D-III Bracketology

[Say What?]

Say What? Time to start the old who get’s in – who stays home D-III Bracketology ‘09-‘10 thread. So for starters and newbee’s new to this annual whine-a-thon (also Matt if you still want to play ), a little review of the criteria:

Primary Criteria:
 Win/Loss % in region
 Strength-of-Schedule in region (utilizing the new methodology for this year & next)
 Head to Head in region
 Results vs common opponents in region
 Results vs ranked teams in region

Secondary Criteria:
 Head to Head out of region
 Overall D-III Win/Loss %
 Results vs common non D-III opponents
 Results vs all D-III ranked teams
 Overall Win/Loss %
 Results vs all common opponents
 Strength-of-Schedule all D-III opponents
 Win/Loss % last 25% of season

Now I’m too lazy to type all the numbers at this time of the year so you have to trust me on the match-up winners. If you have specific questions, ask and I’ll give you the results.

The West
MIAC – St Thomas leads for the Auto (but history says GAC will get it) with GAC, St Kate’s and St Olaf in the mix
NCHA – Lake Forest leads for the Auto with Adrian, Stevens Point, River Falls and Superior in the mix

With the way things are shaking out, the West gets their Auto’s and then has to fight in the Secondary for a third team as no one really stands out at this time. Putting the 9 teams above under the Primary Criteria microscope, here is what happens on the matchups between teams (teams in red considered ranked):

   W L T
LF  6 0 2
GAC 6 1 1
RF  5 2 1
Adr 3 2 3
Sup 2 3 3
SP  1 3 4
STO 1 4 3
STK 0 3 5
STU 0 6 2

GAC pushes with LF and loses to RF while LF beats RF and also pushes with STU and RF has a loss to Adr and push with Sup. Look for 2 of the top 3 teams having to move to Secondary Criteria to have a chance and right now that is GAC and RF. The rest can only hope to win their playoff to get in.

The East
ECAC – East – Norwich leads with Manhattanville in the mix.
ECAC – West – Plattsburgh appears a lock on the Auto with Elmira and RIT in the mix.
NESCAC – Amherst leads for the Auto with Trinity and Middlebury in the mix.

Putting the 8 teams above under Primary Criteria scrutiny here is what happens on the matchups between teams (all teams considered ranked and also Salve Regina):

    W L T
Plat 7 0 0
Amh  6 1 0
Trin 4 2 1
Elm  4 2 1
Man  3 4 0
Nor  1 5 1
Mid  0 5 3
RIT  0 6 1

Both Amh and Trin lose to Platt, Trin and Elm lose to Amh and push each other. Again everyone else can only hope to win their playoff to get in. Trin and Elm move to Secondary Criteria.

Secondary:
Elm ends up 2-1-0 beating both GAC and RF while losing to Trin. Trin ends up 2-0-1 beating RF and pushing GAC. GAC is at 0-2-1 with another lose to RF and RF ends up 1-2-0.

Therefore based on assuming league leaders today get their Auto bid (a really bad assumption), my guess at how the NCAA will rank the teams and that regionally ranked teams will also be the nationally ranked teams, and not having the Last 25% of the schedule factored in yet, here are the selections:

Auto Bid – Norwich, Plattsburgh, Amherst, Lake Forest and St Thomas, with the two At-large going to Elmira and Trinity. Best bet is Final Four at Plattsburgh – it’s the economy Stupid.

[on2thinice]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

By the looks of things now, Amherst could very well end up as the #1 and they really do not have the rink facility size wise to host an NCAA semi/final weekend. They can perhaps host the NCAA semi's at UMASS ten thousand seat Mullins Center right next door to Amherst College or they will be the top seed playing out west or somewhere else. Any suggestions?

[xcoach]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

If Platty or Middy get in, one of them will host the "D-3 Eastern tourney which annually invites two schools from the West". Out west, there is a logjam which makes the matter worse. As many as 5 schools (LF, UWRF, UWS, ST. Thomas, and GAC) could win their Auto, but the NCAA will not find any reason to send the tourney our west. Only one remote possibility:

-St. Thomas wins the Auto
-GAC only loses once more (to St. Thomas in the Auto playoffs)
-UWS or UWRF win outright (no more loses)

Then there are 3 "notable" western teams for the selection committee to at least talk about. In the end, they will keep the tourney out east and invite St. Thomas and UWRF (or UWS), and GAC goes home. It is pretty sad, but that is the way it is.

You see the bias each week when the rankings come out. 15 coaches vote on the rankings, and 10 are from the east. Why does anyone ever think the western teams will ever get ranked where they may belong?

[Say What?]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

By the looks of things now, Amherst could very well end up as the #1 and they really do not have the rink facility size wise to host an NCAA semi/final weekend. They can perhaps host the NCAA semi's at UMASS ten thousand seat Mullins Center right next door to Amherst College or they will be the top seed playing out west or somewhere else. Any suggestions?

Say What? While anything can happen on any given day, Plattsburgh probably has the tougher road to go with a game against Middlebury and two against Manhattanville, but these are at home. Amherst on the other hand only has Norwich at home. Neither team “should(?!?!)” lose again. Based on how the teams match up below as of today and who they play going forward, by the end of the year, Amherst may only win the Head to Head competition thereby guaranteeing hosting rights to Plattsburgh.

       Plattsburgh  vs  Amherst
WIN      0.9000  1      0.8125  0
SOS      0.5664  0      0.5978  1
H2H      0.0000  0      1.0000  1
COP      1.0000  1      0.6667  0
RNK      0.8571  1      0.7222  0
----------------------------------
PTS              3              2
==================================

PS: Mark your schedule for February 10th. Middlebury’s only hope of getting into the big dance, other than by winning the NESCAC tournament, is to get big time brownie points by beating Plattsburg at Stafford. The earth is about to tilt on its axis with no Mandigo at the FF.

[nbound]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

If Platty or Middy get in, one of them will host the "D-3 Eastern tourney which annually invites two schools from the West". Out west, there is a logjam which makes the matter worse. As many as 5 schools (LF, UWRF, UWS, ST. Thomas, and GAC) could win their Auto, but the NCAA will not find any reason to send the tourney our west. Only one remote possibility:

-St. Thomas wins the Auto
-GAC only loses once more (to St. Thomas in the Auto playoffs)
-UWS or UWRF win outright (no more loses)What about Stevens Point, They split with St Thomas. they split with UWS, play GAC again in Feb and will hopefully gain the series split with them. Their key is playing at home this weekend against UWRF

Then there are 3 "notable" western teams for the selection committee to at least talk about. In the end, they will keep the tourney out east ( that ain't going to happen either)and invite St. Thomas and UWRF (or UWS), and GAC goes home. It is pretty sad, but that is the way it is. In the West, due to the parity, it ain't over till it's over.

You see the bias each week when the rankings come out. 15 coaches vote on the rankings, and 10 are from the east. Why does anyone ever think the western teams will ever get ranked where they may belong?

no discounting till it's over

[Say What?]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

Say What? Version 2 - D-III Bracketology ‘09-‘10.

The West
Last week, St Kates leaves GAC with one option, Adrian took a big step, River Falls didn’t hurt itself nor help itself and the rest keep sliding away. It would appear that only 6 teams have a legitimate(?) chance of advancing to the Final Four if they were not to win their Conference Tournament. Putting these teams under the Primary Criteria here is what happens on the matchups between teams (each team is considered ranked):

             W L T
Lake Forest  4 0 1
River Falls  3 0 2
Adrian       2 1 2
Gustavus     2 3 0
St Thomas    1 4 0
St Kates     0 4 1

Actual matchups between the top 3 would look like this currently:

       Lake Forest vs River Falls
WIN      0.8750  1      0.7222  0
SOS      0.4880  0      0.5593  1
H2H      0.0000  0      0.0000  0
COP      0.8571  1      0.6818  0
RNK      0.5000  0      0.6429  1
----------------------------------
PTS              2              2
==================================

        Lake Forest  vs  Adrian
WIN      0.8750  1      0.7083  0
SOS      0.4880  0      0.5740  1
H2H      0.5000  0      0.5000  0
COP      0.9000  1      0.7500  0
RNK      0.5000  0      0.5000  0
----------------------------------
PTS              2              1
==================================

        River Falls  vs  Adrian
WIN      0.7222  1      0.7083  0
SOS      0.5593  0      0.5740  1
H2H      0.5000  0      0.5000  0
COP      0.6875  0      0.7500  1
RNK      0.6429  1      0.5000  0
----------------------------------
PTS              2              2
==================================

So in the West what this all says is that the MIAC sends their Auto Bid and the NCHA sends their Auto Bid and one Secondary Criteria hopeful in this order – Lake Forest, River Falls and Adrian. So as it stands now, St Thomas and Lake Forest are Auto bids and River Falls moves on to the next round. Key to watch will be RF and LF in a week.

The East
Last week Middlebury gets a big win, Amherst gets up a sliver in the foot, Plattsburgh and Elmira roll, and the rest ho-hum. Using the same 8 teams as last week under the Primary Criteria, here is what happens on the matchups between teams (all teams considered ranked and also Salve Regina):

     W L T
Plattsburgh     7 0 0
Amherst         6 1 0
Elmira          5 2 0
Manhattanville  3 4 0
Trinity         2 3 2
Middlebury      2 4 1
Norwich         1 6 0
RIT             0 6 1

Actual matchups between the top 4 would look like this currently:

       Plattsburgh  vs  Amherst
WIN      0.9063  1      0.7778  0
SOS      0.5863  1      0.5733  0
H2H      0.0000  0      1.0000  1
COP      1.0000  1      0.6667  0
RNK      0.8571  1      0.7222  0
----------------------------------
PTS              4              1
==================================

        Plattsburgh  vs  Elmira
WIN      0.9063  1      0.7750  0
SOS      0.5863  1      0.6112  1
H2H      1.0000  1      0.0000  0
COP      0.8846  1      0.8529  0
RNK      0.8571  1      0.5500  0
----------------------------------
PTS              4              1
==================================

        Plattsburgh vs Manhatannville
WIN      0.9063  1      0.7667  0
SOS      0.5863  1      0.5003  0
H2H      0.0000  0      0.0000  0
COP      1.0000  1      0.5000  0
RNK      0.8571  1      0.5000  0
----------------------------------
PTS              4              0
==================================

          Amherst   vs   Elmira
WIN      0.7778  1      0.7750  0
SOS      0.5733  0      0.6112  1
H2H      0.5000  0      0.5000  0
COP      0.7857  1      0.5833  0
RNK      0.7222  1      0.5500  0
----------------------------------
PTS              3              1
==================================

          Amherst   vs Manhattanville
WIN      0.7778  1      0.7667  0
SOS      0.5733  1      0.5003  0
H2H      0.5000  0      0.0000  0
COP      0.7500  1      0.4167  0
RNK      0.7222  1      0.5000  0
----------------------------------
PTS              4              0
==================================

         Elmira    vs  Manhattaville
WIN      0.7750  1      0.7667  0
SOS      0.6112  1      0.5003  0
H2H      0.6667  1      0.3333  0
COP      0.5000  0      1.0000  1
RNK      0.5500  1      0.5000  0
----------------------------------
PTS              4              1
==================================

So in the East what this all says is that the ECAC-E sends their Auto Bid, NESCAC has Amherst only if they win their Tournament or Amherst in play for at-large if they lose and Plattsburgh and Elmira are either in or up for an at-large in the ECAC-W. So as it stands now, Manhattanville, Plattsburgh and Amherst (by virtue of their win and tie against Middlebury) have the Auto bids and Elmira moves on to the next round. Key to watch will be Platty and Midd next week to see if Middlebury can get back into the fray. A spoiler team to watch is Bowdoin with games Amherst this weekend followed by Trinity and Middlebury in the following two weeks.

So that would mean the field is set because River Falls and Elmira would get the at-large births. But wait. The committee decides to take a look at one more team – that being Trinity. They lose match-ups against Plattsburgh, Elmira and Amherst but beat Manhattanville.

         Trinity   vs  Manhattaville
WIN      0.7778  1      0.7667  0
SOS      0.5192  1      0.5003  0
H2H      0.0000  0      0.3333  0
COP      1.0000  0      1.0000  0
RNK      0.5000  0      0.5000  0
----------------------------------
PTS              2              0
==================================

Therefore taking River Falls, Elmira and Trinity to the Secondary Criteria and you get this:

                  River Falls  vs  Elmira
WIN                0.7222  0      0.7750  1
Over All Win %     0.7222  0      0.7750  1
SOS                0.5390  0      0.6206  1
Last 25%           0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Out of Region H2H  0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Com Non-D-III      0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Common All         0.0000  0      0.0000  0
RNK                0.6429  1      0.5500  0
-------------------------------------------
PTS                        1              4
===========================================
                  River Falls  vs Trinity
WIN                0.7222  0      0.7778  1
Over All Win %     0.7222  0      0.7895  1
SOS                0.5390  1      0.5203  0
Last 25%           0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Out of Region H2H  0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Com Non-D-III      0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Common All         0.0000  0      0.0000  0
RNK                0.6429  1      0.5000  0
-------------------------------------------
PTS                        2              2 
===========================================

                   Trinity    vs   Elmira
WIN                0.7778  1      0.7750  0
Over All Win %     0.7895  1      0.7750  0
SOS                0.5203  0      0.6206  1
Last 25%           0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Com Non-D-III      0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Common All         0.6250  0      0.8333  1
RNK                0.5000  0      0.5500  1
-------------------------------------------
PTS                        2              3
===========================================

Secondary:
Elmira is the first at-large with River Falls and Trinity a push. But based on SOS and record against ranked teams River Falls gets the nod and you have a 4-3 split and flip a coin for who hosts in the west. But get a Plattsburgh upset in the Tournament or Amherst losing the NESCAC and you have either one of those two teams getting an at-large over River Falls easily with a 5-2 split and Plattsburgh hosting again.

[Say What?]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

Say What? Version 2.1 - D-III Bracketology ‘09-‘10.

Big couple days starting tonight with the three key match-ups being Stevens Point at Gustavus, River Fall at Bethel and Middlebury at Plattsburgh. Key to post season play are the games in the West. If Gustavus and Bethel win, both River Falls and Adrian fall behind Gustavus in the primary and secondary criteria (and a chance at an at-large bid), leaving their only path to Post Season play in winning the NCHA Tournament. Add into that, River Falls playing two at Lake Forest and Adrian playing two at Stevens Point this weekend and it is make or break time in the West this week. Then there is Middlebury. A loss tomorrow and it “Should Be” definitely curtains for Middlebury for Post Season without a NESCAC Tournament win. A win and Mandigo and crew keep the nail from completely slamming into the coffin.

[gojackets]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

things we know for sure.

ECAC-E will only get their autobid in

ECAC-W will get one of pool C's


thats about it..lol

[nbound]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

things we know for sure.

ECAC-E will only get their autobid in

ECAC-W will get one of pool C's


thats about it..lol

and the second Pool C ???? a crapshoot ????

[gojackets]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

and the second Pool C ???? a crapshoot ????

I am about 80% certain that it would go to River Falls or Gustavus right now.

Pool C contenders right now
Elmira--lock as long as they make it deep in the ECAC-W tourney
RIT
Middlebury
Trinity
River Falls
Gustavus--assuming they aren't in the MIAC lead
Adrian--not really

I don't think St. Kate or St Thomas would be in the runing cuz of their non-conference performances

We all know my thoughts on Middlebury/RIT/Trinity--have beat no one worth mentioning. Adrian has no business getting it over RIT.

I think it comes down to the two west teams...esp since the FF is in the west. Plattsburgh or Elmira not winning the ECAC-W would be the killer.


We'll know a lot more after the rankings come out tomorrow

[Say What?]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

Say What? Version 3 - D-III Bracketology ‘09-‘10. Part 1.

Getting down to crunch time with the numbers. To start with here is a rough guess as to which teams will be rank by the NC$$:
West – Gustavus, Lake Forest, River Falls, Adrian, St Kates, Stevens Point
East – Plattsburgh, Amherst, Elmira, Middlebury, Trinity, Manhattanville, RIT, Norwich (maybe two more)
National – same 14 teams

The West
Last week, St Kates and St Thomas fall back to GAC and it appears that Adrian, River Falls and Lake Forest are in the hunt also. Putting these teams under the Primary Criteria microscope, here is what happens on the matchups between teams:

             W L T
Gustavus     4 0 1
Lake Forest  3 0 2
River Falls  3 2 0
Adrian       1 3 1
St Thomas    0 3 2
St Kates     0 3 2

Based on this, it would appear that the only hope for Adrian, St Thomas or St Kates (or anyone else for that matter) is to win their conference tournament. Actual matchups between the top 3 would look like this currently:

       Lake Forest vs River Falls
WIN      0.8333  1      0.7391  0
SOS      0.5056  0      0.5605  1
H2H      0.5000  0      0.5000  0
COP      0.8571  1      0.7308  0
RNK      0.5833  1      0.5556  0
----------------------------------
PTS              3              1
==================================

        Lake Forest vs  Gustavus
WIN      0.8333  1      0.7619  0
SOS      0.5056  0      0.5347  1
H2H      0.0000  0      0.0000  0
COP      0.8000  1      0.7857  0
RNK      0.5833  0      0.7500  1
----------------------------------
PTS              2              2
==================================

        River Falls  vs Gustavus
WIN      0.7391  0      0.7619  1
SOS      0.5605  1      0.5347  0
H2H      0.2500  0      0.7500  1
COP      0.8636  1      0.6250  0
RNK      0.5556  0      0.7500  1
----------------------------------
PTS              2              3
==================================

If two of these teams win their Tournaments, then the third moves on to Secondary Criteria. If GAC loses they probably moves on no matter who wins the NCHA Tournament because they win the match up with RF and have a better SOS and record against ranked teams versus LF.

The East
Games last week didn’t change the top 8 teams in the east and didn’t do much at the top but changed 4 through 8 to some degree. Using the same 8 teams as last week under the Primary Criteria, here is what happens on the matchups between teams:

     W L T
Plattsburgh     7 0 0
Amherst         6 1 0
Elmira          5 2 0
Manhattanville  2 3 1 
Middlebury      2 4 1
Trinity         1 3 3
RIT             0 4 3
Norwich         0 6 1

Actual matchups between the top 5 would look like this currently:

       Plattsburgh  vs  Amherst
WIN      0.9048  1      0.8182  0
SOS      0.5731  1      0.5715  0
H2H      0.0000  0      1.0000  1
COP      0.9286  1      0.6667  0
RNK      0.8500  1      0.7222  0
----------------------------------
PTS              4              1
==================================

        Plattsburgh  vs  Elmira
WIN      0.9048  1      0.8043  0
SOS      0.5731  0      0.5805  1
H2H      1.0000  1      0.0000  0
COP      0.8889  1      0.8750  0
RNK      0.8500  1      0.5500  0
----------------------------------
PTS              4              1
==================================

        Plattsburgh vs Manhatannville
WIN      0.9048  1      0.7105  0
SOS      0.5731  1      0.5336  0
H2H      1.0000  1      0.0000  0
COP      1.0000  1      0.5714  0
RNK      0.8500  1      0.3750  0
----------------------------------
PTS              5              0
==================================

          Amherst   vs   Elmira
WIN      0.8182  1      0.8043  0
SOS      0.5715  0      0.5805  1
H2H      0.5000  0      0.5000  0
COP      0.7857  1      0.5833  0
RNK      0.7222  1      0.5500  0
----------------------------------
PTS              3              1
==================================

          Amherst   vs Manhattanville
WIN      0.8182  1      0.7105  0
SOS      0.5715  1      0.5336  0
H2H      0.0000  0      0.0000  0
COP      0.7500  1      0.3889  0
RNK      0.7222  1      0.3750  0
----------------------------------
PTS              4              0
==================================

         Elmira    vs  Manhattaville
WIN      0.8043  1      0.7105  0
SOS      0.5805  1      0.5336  0
H2H      0.6667  1      0.3333  0
COP      0.5000  1      0.3333  0
RNK      0.5500  1      0.3750  0
----------------------------------
PTS              5              0
==================================

       Plattsburgh  vs Middlebury
WIN      0.9048  1      0.7000  0
SOS      0.5731  1      0.5649  0
H2H      0.7500  1      0.2500  0
COP      0.8571  1      0.5000  0
RNK      0.8500  1      0.2857  0
----------------------------------
PTS              5              0
==================================

        Middlebury   vs  Elmira
WIN      0.7000  0      0.8043  1
SOS      0.5649  0      0.5805  1
H2H      0.0000  0      1.0000  1
COP      0.5000  0      0.6667  1
RNK      0.2857  0      0.5500  1
----------------------------------
PTS              0              5
==================================

        Middlebury vs Manhatannville
WIN      0.7000  0      0.7105  1
SOS      0.5649  1      0.5336  0
H2H      0.0000  0      0.0000  0
COP      0.3750  0      0.4444  1
RNK      0.2857  0      0.3750  1
----------------------------------
PTS              1              3
==================================

          Amherst  vs  Middlebury
WIN      0.8182  1      0.7000  0
SOS      0.5715  1      0.5649  0
H2H      0.7500  1      0.2500  0
COP      0.8235  1      0.7000  0
RNK      0.7222  1      0.2857  0
----------------------------------
PTS              5              0
==================================

So the order of the top 5 is Plattsburgh, Amherst, Elmira, Manhattanville and Middlebury. Anyone else wanting to get into the FF is going to have to win one of the eastern Tournaments.

See Part 2

[Say What?]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

Say What? Version 3 - D-III Bracketology ‘09-‘10. Part 2

Secondary Criteria
Lets toss these 8 teams in and see what happens when you match up between east and west.

                  River Falls  vs  Elmira
WIN                0.7391  0      0.8043  1
Over All Win %     0.7391  0      0.8043  1
SOS                0.5480  0      0.5870  1
Last 25%           0.7500  0      1.0000  1
Out of Region H2H  0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Com Non-D-III      0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Common All         0.0000  0      0.0000  0
RNK                0.5556  1      0.5500  0
-------------------------------------------
PTS                        1              4
===========================================

                  River Falls vs Plattsburgh
WIN                0.7391  0      0.9048  1
Over All Win %     0.7391  0      0.9091  1
SOS                0.5480  0      0.5800  1
Last 25%           0.7500  0      0.8333  1
Out of Region H2H  0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Com Non-D-III      0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Common All         0.0000  0      0.0000  0
RNK                0.5556  0      0.8500  1
-------------------------------------------
PTS                        0              5 
===========================================

                  River Falls  vs  Amherst
WIN                0.7391  0      0.8182  1
Over All Win %     0.7391  0      0.8261  1
SOS                0.5480  0      0.5717  1
Last 25%           0.7500  0      1.0000  1
Out of Region H2H  0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Com Non-D-III      0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Common All         0.0000  0      0.0000  0
RNK                0.5556  0      0.7222  1
-------------------------------------------
PTS                        0              5
===========================================

                  River Falls vs Manhattanville
WIN                0.7391  1      0.7105  0
Over All Win %     0.7391  1      0.7174  0
SOS                0.5480  1      0.5375  0
Last 25%           0.7500  1      0.5000  0
Out of Region H2H  0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Com Non-D-III      0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Common All         0.0000  0      0.0000  0
RNK                0.5556  1      0.3750  0
-------------------------------------------
PTS                        5              0 
===========================================

                  River Falls vs  Middlebury
WIN                0.7391  1      0.7000  0
Over All Win %     0.7391  1      0.7143  0
SOS                0.5480  0      0.5639  1
Last 25%           0.7500  1      0.5000  0
Com Non-D-III      0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Common All         0.6250  0      0.0000  0
RNK                0.5556  1      0.2857  0
-------------------------------------------
PTS                        4              1
===========================================

                  Lake Forest  vs  Elmira
WIN                0.8000  0      0.8043  1
Over All Win %     0.8095  1      0.8043  0
SOS                0.4943  0      0.5870  1
Last 25%           0.7500  0      1.0000  1
Out of Region H2H  0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Com Non-D-III      0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Common All         0.0000  0      0.0000  0
RNK                0.5833  1      0.5500  0
-------------------------------------------
PTS                        2              3
===========================================

                  Lake Forest vs Plattsburgh
WIN                0.8000  0      0.9048  1
Over All Win %     0.8095  0      0.9091  1
SOS                0.4943  0      0.5800  1
Last 25%           0.7500  0      0.8333  1
Out of Region H2H  0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Com Non-D-III      0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Common All         0.0000  0      0.0000  0
RNK                0.5833  0      0.8500  1
-------------------------------------------
PTS                        0              5 
===========================================

                  Lake Forest  vs  Amherst
WIN                0.8000  0      0.8182  1
Over All Win %     0.8095  0      0.8261  1
SOS                0.4943  0      0.5717  1
Last 25%           0.7500  0      1.0000  1
Out of Region H2H  0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Com Non-D-III      0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Common All         1.0000  0      1.0000  0
RNK                0.5833  0      0.7222  1
-------------------------------------------
PTS                        0              5
===========================================

                  Lake Forest vs Manhattanville
WIN                0.8000  1      0.7105  0
Over All Win %     0.8095  1      0.7174  0
SOS                0.4943  0      0.5374  1
Last 25%           0.7500  1      0.5000  0
Out of Region H2H  0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Com Non-D-III      0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Common All         0.0000  0      1.0000  1
RNK                0.5833  1      0.3750  0
-------------------------------------------
PTS                        4              2 
===========================================

                  Lake Forest vs  Middlebury
WIN                0.8000  1      0.7000  0
Over All Win %     0.8095  1      0.7143  0
SOS                0.4943  0      0.5639  1
Last 25%           0.7500  1      0.5000  0
Com Non-D-III      0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Common All         0.5000  0      1.0000  1
RNK                0.5833  1      0.2857  0
-------------------------------------------
PTS                        4              2
===========================================

                   Gustavus   vs   Elmira
WIN                0.7619  0      0.8043  1
Over All Win %     0.7619  0      0.8043  1
SOS                0.5361  0      0.5870  1
Last 25%           1.0000  0      1.0000  0
Out of Region H2H  0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Com Non-D-III      0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Common All         0.0000  0      0.0000  0
RNK                0.7500  1      0.5500  0
-------------------------------------------
PTS                        1              3
===========================================

                   Gustavus  vs  Plattsburgh
WIN                0.7619  0      0.9048  1
Over All Win %     0.7619  0      0.9091  1
SOS                0.5361  0      0.5800  1
Last 25%           1.0000  1      0.8333  0
Out of Region H2H  0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Com Non-D-III      0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Common All         0.0000  0      0.0000  0
RNK                0.7500  0      0.8500  1
-------------------------------------------
PTS                        1              4 
===========================================

                   Gustavus   vs   Amherst
WIN                0.7619  0      0.8182  1
Over All Win %     0.7619  0      0.8261  1
SOS                0.5361  0      0.5717  1
Last 25%           1.0000  0      1.0000  0
Out of Region H2H  0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Com Non-D-III      0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Common All         0.0000  0      0.0000  0
RNK                0.7500  1      0.7222  0
-------------------------------------------
PTS                        1              3
===========================================

                   Gustavus  vs Manhattanville
WIN                0.7619  1      0.7105  0
Over All Win %     0.7619  1      0.7174  0
SOS                0.5361  0      0.5375  1
Last 25%           1.0000  1      0.5000  0
Out of Region H2H  0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Com Non-D-III      0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Common All         0.0000  0      0.0000  0
RNK                0.7500  1      0.3750  0
-------------------------------------------
PTS                        4              1 
===========================================

                   Gustavus   vs  Middlebury
WIN                0.7619  1      0.7000  0
Over All Win %     0.7619  1      0.7143  0
SOS                0.5361  0      0.5639  1
Last 25%           1.0000  1      0.0000  0
Com Non-D-III      0.0000  0      0.0000  0
Common All         0.0000  0      0.0000  0
RNK                0.7500  1      0.2857  0
-------------------------------------------
PTS                        4              1
===========================================

Based on Primary and then Secondary Criteria, the order for getting into the Tournament is: Plattsburgh, Amherst, Elmira, Gustavus, Lake Forest, River Falls, Manhattanville and Middlebury. Assuming the five Tournament winners come from this group, then Middlebury is out no matter what. If Middlebury or someone besides this group wins a Tournament, then you can start working your way up from the bottom as who doesn’t get in. Manhattanville loses, they are out. Plattsburgh, Amherst or Gustavus lose and either LF or RF is out. Etc. etc. etc.

Disclaimer:
Numbers are numbers and the NC$$ will pick as they please. Real Transparency!!!!

[gojackets]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

Why are we asssuming GUstavus is going to win the MIAC?? They have a decent shot of finishing second in the standings.

where are you getting your SOS #'s ranked(?)

[Say What?]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

Why are we asssuming GUstavus is going to win the MIAC?? They have a decent shot of finishing second in the standings.

where are you getting your SOS #'s ranked(?)

Say What? I guessed at who the NC$$ was going to rank based on how they did it the last couple years. I know there is a lot of info here, and it may be really hard for you to comprehend, but please refer to the first paragraph of Part 1 above for my best guess at ranked teams. (I will change them when the NC$$ identifies theirs.) As for SOS, the old Cray has had to work overtime. It is a function of every D-III game played to date based on the new NC$$ formula which is 66.7% of a team’s OWP plus 33.3% of their OOP. Now I explained the whole OOP/OWP thing last year, if necessary I can do it again. The old Cray has all of this calculated, so it is what it is. As far as Gustavus, I guess I’m going on history again. But what I also said is if they don’t win the MIAC Tournament, that as of this point and time in the Primary Criteria they would end up above either of the NCHA schools, and ahead of Middlebury in the Secondary thus putting them into the FF unless two favorites in the east also lost their Tournament. That is strictly how it stands “today”. Things can change and will. Sorry if the criteria got in the way of your preconceived wishes!!!

[Plugger]

Re: '09-'10 D-III Bracketology

Say What? I guessed at who the NC$$ was going to rank based on how they did it the last couple years. I know there is a lot of info here, and it may be really hard for you to comprehend, but please refer to the first paragraph of Part 1 above for my best guess at ranked teams. (I will change them when the NC$$ identifies theirs.) As for SOS, the old Cray has had to work overtime. It is a function of every D-III game played to date based on the new NC$$ formula which is 66.7% of a team’s OWP plus 33.3% of their OOP. Now I explained the whole OOP/OWP thing last year, if necessary I can do it again. The old Cray has all of this calculated, so it is what it is. As far as Gustavus, I guess I’m going on history again. But what I also said is if they don’t win the MIAC Tournament, that as of this point and time in the Primary Criteria they would end up above either of the NCHA schools, and ahead of Middlebury in the Secondary thus putting them into the FF unless two favorites in the east also lost their Tournament. That is strictly how it stands “today”. Things can change and will. Sorry if the criteria got in the way of your preconceived wishes!!!

I loved your last sentence.....too funny!!