How Early is Too Early? Inside the PWR

[The Sicatoka]

Re: How Early is Too Early? Inside the PWR

How early is too early?

Miami, Denver, Ferris State and CC are not only locks for the tournament, they are almost 60% favorites to garner #1 seeds come March.

Based on the bold above, January could be a tish early to make "lock" statements.

[Priceless]

Re: How Early is Too Early? Inside the PWR

Based on the bold above, January could be a tish early to make "lock" statements.

Based on the data that was available, they were. No one has fallen so far before...certainly not two teams in the same year.

[UnionHockeyManiac]

Re: How Early is Too Early? Inside the PWR

Priceless - What needs to happen for Union to make it without winning the ECACs? I'm guessing almost everything would have to go right? Thanks.

[Priceless]

Re: How Early is Too Early? Inside the PWR

Priceless - What needs to happen for Union to make it without winning the ECACs? I'm guessing almost everything would have to go right? Thanks.

Check out the bracketology thread. Basically, if all higher seeds win out, Union is the last team in. They probably need to win either the ECAC semifinal or the third-place game...and they need the cut line to remain high.

[sterlippo1]

Re: How Early is Too Early? Inside the PWR

you said BC "can clinch" the final #1 seed if they get to the HE championship then that north dakota "will" be the final #1 seed if they win their tourney, who is the final #1 seed if both win their tourney?

[beersong]

Re: How Early is Too Early? Inside the PWR

Based on the bold above, January could be a tish early to make "lock" statements.

I also notice on 1-17-10 UMD held the #3 overall seed.

[Priceless]

Re: How Early is Too Early? Inside the PWR

you said BC "can clinch" the final #1 seed if they get to the HE championship then that north dakota "will" be the final #1 seed if they win their tourney, who is the final #1 seed if both win their tourney?

There are still too many variables - who each team will have to face in their respective semifinals and finals, plus other games as well. However, if all higher seeds win except BC defeats New Hampshire and North Dakota runs the table at the F5, the Sioux would get the final #1 seed by .0034 RPI

[MagnessMan]

Re: How Early is Too Early? Inside the PWR

How early is too early? It might seem ridiculous to look at the PWR now, before the conference schedule really heats up, but history tells another story. Over 75% of teams that are in the field at New Year's make the tournament in March. Of the 97 teams that qualified in the PWR, 73 were in the field in early January (75.26%). Among the top 4 (number 1 seeds) 27 of 28 teams qualified. Only the 2004 St. Cloud squad fell from those heights. That's great news for Miami, Denver, Colorado College and Ferris State

Well this answers the question. January 7th is way too early. CC is out and FS is on the bubble

[Priceless]

Re: How Early is Too Early? Inside the PWR

Well this answers the question. January 7th is way too early. CC is out and FS is on the bubble

Good to see CC continuing the WCHA tradition of falling out of the field

[dggoddard]

Re: How Early is Too Early? Inside the PWR

Good to see CC continuing the WCHA tradition of falling out of the field

CC also has the tradition of never capturing the Broadmoor Trophy awarded to the winner of the WCHA playoffs.

[Priceless]

Re: How Early is Too Early? Inside the PWR

Here are the current PWR

1 Miami
2 Denver
3 Ferris State
4 Colorado College
---
5 Wisconsin
6t Bemidji State
6t Michigan State
8 Boston College
---
9t Vermont
9t St. Cloud State
11 Minnesota-Duluth
12t Yale
---
12t Massachusetts
12t North Dakota
15t Union
15t Maine
17t New Hampshire
17t Mass.-Lowell
19 Lake Superior
20 Alaska
21t Quinnipiac
21t Cornell
23t Northern Michigan
23t Minnesota State
25 Notre Dame

Same position: 2
Same seed: 4
Tournament: 9
Cut line: 14
64.3% of the field projected in January made the eventual field.

[Priceless]

Re: How Early is Too Early? Inside the PWR

The New Year is officially here and this round of non-conference games are behind us. It's time to begin to look at the PairWise seriously. "But it's only January!" I hear you say. In the eight years prior the first PWR after holiday tournaments and NC games has accurately predicted 74% of the eventual field. In every instance at least nine teams that were in the final field were in this PWR - and three times 12 teams that made the tournament were above the cut line.


What is the cut line? The number at which teams that are not conference winners make the field. Historically, that is 14; it has never been higher than 15 or lower than 13. This year the cut line should be 15 (only the AHA autobid will make the field) but with upsets in the conference tournaments that number could go down.

The first PWR of the New Year have included 82 of the 111 spots in the eventual tournament field. In addition, 32 teams have had the same seed in the NCAAs and 12 have held the same exact place in the standings. Prior to last year, only St Cloud had fallen from a #1 seed all the way out. Last year both Colorado College and Ferris State did it. Only three times has a team that wasn't a TUC now won a tournament invite.

The #1 and #2 overall seed have never fallen out of the tournament. Only the 2009 Cornell team fell as far as a #3 seed. In both 2004 and 2010 the top 2 seeds finished 1 and 2 in the final rankings. Great news for both Yale and North Dakota. #3 Denver should feel safe, but the Pioneers have fallen from the PWR twice before. Of the other current tournament teams, RPI has the greatest reason to feel nervous. No team has made its initial PWR appearance in the same year they've entered the field without an autobid. The 2006 Lake Superior State, 2007 Bemidji State and the 2010 Union squads all failed to make the tournament in their first showing.

With that, the current PairWise rankings and bracketology:

1 Yale (EC)
2 North Dakota (WC)
3 Denver U (WC)
4 New Hampshire (HE)
5 Boston Coll (HE)
6 Minn-Duluth (WC)
7 RPI (EC)
8 Michigan (CC)
9 NE-Omaha (WC)
10 Miami (CC)
11 Notre Dame (CC)
12 Wisconsin (WC)
13 CO College (WC)
14 AK-Fairbanks (CC)
15 Maine (HE)
---
16 Merrimack (HE)
17 Union (EC)
18 Boston Univ (HE)
19 Dartmouth (EC)
20 Princeton (EC)
21 Western Mich (CC)
22 Minnesota (WC)
23 Northern Mich (CC)
24 MSU-Mankato (WC)
25 Bemidji State (WC)

Bridgeport		Manchester	St Louis	Green Bay
Yale			BC		Denver		North Dakota
Michigan		UNH		Duluth		RPI
NE-Omaha		Wisconsin	Notre Dame	Miami
AHA Champ		CO College	Alaska		Maine

There aren't any blatant attendance issues, but the numbers in Green Bay can be boosted significantly by moving Bucky and Michigan there. That also allows us to put 2 ECAC squads in the regional hosted by the ECAC. St. Louis is going to be a black hole for attendance (who the hell thought having a regional in a 19,000+ capacity building was a good idea?) but hopefully Notre Dame's presence will be worth something. Denver and Alaska aren't going to draw significant fans anyway, so let them drag down the St. Louis regional. (Sorry, but it's true, and it's how the committee would think.)

The new brackets look like this:

Bridgeport		Manchester	        St Louis	Green Bay
Yale			BC			Denver		North Dakota
RPI			UNH			Duluth		Michigan
NE-Omaha		Miami			Notre Dame	Wisconsin
AHA Champ		CO College		Alaska		Maine

Statistically speaking, this will look very similar to the final brackets in March.

[Onion Man]

Re: How Early is Too Early? Inside the PWR

Priceless, Siouxsports' PWR is a little different from yours:

http://siouxsports.com/hockey/rankings/pwr/

[Priceless]

Re: How Early is Too Early? Inside the PWR

Priceless, Siouxsports' PWR is a little different from yours:

http://siouxsports.com/hockey/rankings/pwr/

I'm guessing that's because they don't have the UMD-Clarkson game yet. But I will check the updated PWR when all games are included.

Edit: That's not it. The SS site breaks ties by RPI, TBRW breaks them via H2H comparison. Yale's RPI is also different on the two sites. It appears the other teams have the correct RPI values. TBRW and USCHO have .6236 and SS has .6228

As far as how to break ties:

Teams are then ranked by PWR point total, with ties broken by the teams’ RPI ratings. This tiebreaking procedure is in displaying the PWR but is not definitively the way the selection committee breaks ties. There is anecdotal evidence that the committee in fact uses RPI to break ties.

USCHO PWR Explanation

The tie that is changed using this method is UNH and BC. The Eagles win the tiebreaker and would finish #4 overall, UNH would finish #5. It would not change the Miami-UNO or Alaska-Maine ties.

[darker98]

Re: How Early is Too Early? Inside the PWR

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