Merrimack College Hockey 2009-2010

[Gibber]

Re: Merrimack College Hockey 2009-2010

*****http://www.joshgibney.com/brathsave_web.jpg******

[dmjossel]

Starting Netminder

It would be nice. Cannata gave UNH fits last year at UNH, I would expect to see him.

In league play this year Cannata is statistically the worst starter by a significant margin. The gap between his GAA of 3.70 and the next-worst (Kieran Millan's 3.24) is exactly as large as the gap between Millan's and the six tenders above him: Braithwaite, Rawlings, Beaudry, Madore, Hamilton and Dainton.

Cannata gave up five goals to UML in his last start (admittedly, one less than Braithwaite allowed in the loss to BU before that).

Since then, it's been three straight starts for Braithwaite and a GAA of 2.33 over that stretch, with two wins and a one-goal loss in OT on the road against the league leaders. Not too shabby.

For better or worse, it's Braithwaite's job now until he loses it or graduates. Cannata may be the goalie of the future for Merrimack, but the future's not here yet. The present is about getting into the playoffs and finishing as high as possible, and at the moment, Braithwaite looks like the best bet to get that done.

I'd expect to see Cannata now only for the 2nd game on a weekend if Braithwaite gets absolutely bombed the night before, and even then, only if it's his fault. If the defense hangs him out to dry (just as likely to happen to either netminder, it seems, given the shot counts UNH put up) I think we'll see Dennehy continue to start Braithwaite; every point matters now and statistically he's the better bet. Maybe we'll see Cannata get a start on the road later in the season in a game that is a long shot, but frankly there aren't that many of those games left; the game at BC the end of this month is the only one that fits the bill, and I'm not sure it's a long shot. MC lost by one at Kelley back in October, and then won a game by two at home. Plus, the Eagles are a potential playoff opponent if they finish 2nd or 3rd and MC finishes 7th or 6th.

As a postscript, though, I don't think the Warrior goaltending tandem has lived up to Coach Dennehy's early assertion that Merrimack had the best in Hockey East. That honor belongs to UML. Lowell's Carter Hutton has given up four fewer goals (24) than Cannata (28) even though he has played 100 more minutes. Lowell's Nevin Hamilton has played 40 more minutes than Cannata and given up five fewer goals. Cannata has gone head to head against Hamilton twice this season and lost both times, although admittedly only by one goal, in games where the offense scored 3 and 4 goals. Three might not be enough to win, but four really should be.

Cannata did very well against UNH last year. He hasn't done particularly well against anybody this year, at least not in league play.

[Back check]

Re: Merrimack College Hockey 2009-2010

Any word on Braithwaite's replacement for next year?

[dmjossel]

Re: Merrimack College Hockey 2009-2010

Any word on Braithwaite's replacement for next year?

I don't see a netminder listed on Mike McMahon's recruit page:

http://www.warriorrinkrat.com/2009/0...y-recruit.html

So I guess it's Cannata and this year's third-string frosh, Nick Drew:

http://www.uscho.com/stats/player.ph...17003&gender=m

He hasn't started once this year, so unless he's redshirted (I assume the roster would indicate that if he was) I'm guessing the plan was to platoon Cannata and Braithwaite this year and let Cannata take the starting job next year.

Myself, I was a strong advocate of trying to move Cannata into the starter's role this season. With Braithwaite a senior, and Cannata a sophomore, it would mean Cannata would be more seasoned and better equipped for his junior and senior campaigns.

[dmjossel]

Re: Merrimack College Hockey 2009-2010

Andover public access also posts their rebroadcasts of Merrimack hockey games at home on their website.

A technical issue prevented the PC game from being posted, but here's the win over UNH:

http://andovertv.org/merrimack.vs.ne...01.29.2010.flv

[Hokydad]

Re: Merrimack College Hockey 2009-2010

zero chance that Cannata wont play as much if not more than Braithwaite

zero

not putting down anyone but he is the future, MC is not even considering bringing in anyone for next year other then to back him up

[dmjossel]

Re: Merrimack College Hockey 2009-2010

zero chance that Cannata wont play as much if not more than Braithwaite

If you mean overall, you MIGHT be right. So far Cannata has actually gotten more than a fair shake; he's played the same number of games (12) and 9 more minutes.

Not that this counts in his favor, mind you-- the fact is that in those 12 games Braithwaite's record is 6-5 with a GAA a hair under 3, while Cannata's is 3-9 with a GAA of 3.8.

3.8. No, seriously, 3.8. You can't even brush that off by pointing out poor team defense and an emphasis on offense, or shots allowed, because his save percentage is also poor at .872.

So why has Cannata played 9 more minutes in the same number of games? Because Braithwaite kept games close enough to justify pulling him to try and get the tie.

In the games that matter-- league games-- Braithwaite has played one more game than Cannata and has a 4-4 record, while Cannata's is 2-6.

Both netminders are near the bottom of the list, statistically, but the gap between Cannata and the rest is a huge, yawning gulf. He may be good, but he's had a bad year.

Braithwaite's win percentage, save percentage, and GAA are all better than BU's starter, Kieran Millan, who won a national championship last year.

Braithwaite's win percentage and save percentage are better than NU starter Chris Rawlings. Braithwaite has lost fewer games than either.

Given all that, I'd say there's a very significant chance that Braithwaite indeed gets more starts than Cannata from here on end. Much higher than zero.

Braithwaite has started the last three and has a 2-1 record in those games, including back-to-back games against UNH.

If Dennehy was still platooning, Cannata would have started at UNH. If Dennehy had thought the game at UNH either unimportant or unwinnable, he might have started Cannata to give him some more playing time. However, since he's already had more playing time than Braithwaite and hasn't gotten results, where Braithwaite has, and the game was both important and winnable, he started the netminder who is playing better.

One might be tempted to think Dennehy will start Cannata against NU.

However, I seriously doubt it. Dennehy platooned in the last NU series; Braithwaite at home, Cannata on the road. Braithwaite won, Cannata lost. The difference wasn't even offense-- Cannata gave up two goals, Braithwaite only gave up one. The fact that MC usually wins at home and usually loses on the road might be skewing that, but that doesn't help make the call. The NU game is a four-point swing between two teams still in contention for a playoff spot. It's a must-win for both clubs. The combination of Braithwaite and home ice generated a win before-- and this time, NU's starter is healthy; the last two games were against the backup. Dennehy cannot afford to gamble on Cannata any more, in my opinion, until either the season ends, or Merrimack is eliminated from playoff contention or its playoff matchup is determined.

In fact, I think the best chance for a Cannata start between now and the end of the season will be a road game where a loss actually gives Merrimack a better playoff matchup. However I'm not sure Dennehy is a coach who rolls that way.

There are 11 games left, and both tenders have started 12. So one of them will start one more game than the other. Looking at the remaining schedule and performance to date, I think it is highly likely that Braithwaite will have more minutes played, both in the league and overall, at the end of this season.

zero

not putting down anyone but he is the future, MC is not even considering bringing in anyone for next year other then to back him up

At the start of the season, I am sure that was true. It's too late to be looking for players for next season anyway; anybody worth having is committed.

If Dennehy is astute, he might be starting to look sometime soon for a goaltender for 2011-12. This would be true anyway unless they consider Drew a potential starter.

If Dennehy has tact, he won't mention it to anyone who might tell you.

So Dennehy might very well be looking and you don't know about it.

[Hokydad]

Re: Merrimack College Hockey 2009-2010

It will be interesting to see what happens

MC is brutal on the road thus Cannatas difference in stats.

Two good goalies but I suspect C will get hot and his fair share soon enough

[WDR357]

Re: Merrimack College Hockey 2009-2010

I'd be very surprised not to see a goalie committing to the Mack in the next few months. No way they go with only one scholarship goalie next year.

[Hokydad]

Re: Merrimack College Hockey 2009-2010

sam morrata from BCH, then EJ and who just joined the ice in USHL would be a good pick up. Him and Cannata both went to BCH and Sam could back up and then take over for.

6'4" and solid+

Won his first start last saturday eve

Dennehey graduated from BCH as well

[ChiefWahoo]

Re: Merrimack College Hockey 2009-2010

sam morrata from BCH, then EJ and who just joined the ice in USHL would be a good pick up. Him and Cannata both went to BCH and Sam could back up and then take over for.

6'4" and solid+

Won his first start last saturday eve

Dennehey graduated from BCH as well

I am sure he knows about him. He got verbals from Cannata and Heffernan when they were still at BCH. Dennehy will probably get someone a little older.

[dmjossel]

Re: Merrimack College Hockey 2009-2010

It will be interesting to see what happens

MC is brutal on the road thus Cannatas difference in stats.

One, that doesn't make any sense. Two, even if there was a relationship, there's no way to know which way it works. Cannata has bad stats because he starts more on the road and the team loses? Or does the team lose more on the road because Cannata has more road starts?

Neither netminder has won on the road but that doesn't mean that we can tell which way the causality arrow goes.

But let's look at the records.

Cannata has indeed played more of his games on the road, but not that many more. He's started 4 at home and 8 on the road. He lost all eight road games and has a GAA of 4.57.

At home, he won three at home and lost one-- the only home loss for the Warriors this season-- and has a home GAA of 2.75. He allowed 1 to Holy Cross, 2 to Vermont, 3 to BU and 5 to UNH.

In the same number of games, Braithwaite has indeed gotten more home starts than Cannata. However, his statistics are still better when you divide them home and away.

Braithwaite has started half of his games at home and won all six with a GAA of 1.8. Both netminders played a game against UNH at Volpe; Cannata gave up 5 and lost, Braithwaite gave up 2 and won. That's as straightforward a comparison as you can get.

On the road, Braithwaite also hasn't won a game, but his GAA of 4.16 is still significantly better than Cannata's 4.57.

(Note: I am penalizing Braithwaite here for the 4 goals he gave up in a non-decision at BU, but I am NOT penalizing Cannata for the one goal he gave up in relief. This is only because all the other games can be clearly divided, where to get completely accurate stats I'd have to break it down by minutes played. So the gap between the players is probably a bit smaller than shown above, but I don't think significantly so given it is only part of one game.)

Two good goalies but I suspect C will get hot and his fair share soon enough

It'd be great if it happens. However, there's a big gap between wanting it to happen and imagining that it's already happened, or that the factors preventing it from happening are somehow external to the two players.

Honestly I think Braithwaite's earned the starter's job at this point. Merrimack is still in a tough fight for a playoff spot and for a decent finish. There is too much at risk in each of the remaining games to give Cannata a start to keep him fresh or because there's a chance he'll "get hot" or because he's had a good week in practice.

At this point, Cannata will get his shot to become hot if Braithwaite stumbles seriously or in case of injury. Barring either of those things I don't see Cannata getting more than two or three starts from here on end. Given that Braithwaite is playing pretty well and the Warriors have a good number of games coming up at home-- where the team and both goalies have played better than on the road, but where there is still a perceptible gap between both goalies' play-- I think the best hope is for Braithwaite to continue to play well and continue to start.

Hoping to see Braithwaite go down so that Cannata can get another shot is a bit perverse, I think-- and I don't see Braithwaite losing the starter's spot now any other way.

[Hokydad]

Re: Merrimack College Hockey 2009-2010

Nothing but the best for both.

Will be surprised if Cannata does not get another shot to take the reins.

[warriors16]

Re: Merrimack College Hockey 2009-2010

Braithewaite's job until he loses it. He's played well and clearly he can carry a team (look back to two years ago) and last year he had an injury for the whole second half of the season.

Must-win 4 point game tonight and it be great to see MC finally beat UML (particularly if Dehner is really out).

[Hokydad]

Re: Merrimack College Hockey 2009-2010

My how times change in 48 hours....

Nice win By JC and Merrimack tonight after a rough outing last night...