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TonyTheTiger20
02-23-2019, 05:25 PM
IT'S THAT TIME OF YEAR!

My annual Pairwise predictor is live. Instructions are self-explanatory, but basically input results in the drop downs and it will spit out the resulting Pairwise rankings.

Let me know if you have any questions or any other bug reports. And also, any interesting scenarios you can find.

NOTE THAT IT'S A HUGE FILE IT WILL SOMETIMES TAKE 5 SECONDS OR SO TO UPDATE THE NEXT ROUNDS WITH THE RESULTS YOU ENTERED. It will also not include the autobids until all results are entered.

Enjoy!

https://www.bcinterruption.com/boston-college-bc-eagles-womens-hockey/2019/2/23/18237517/ncaa-womens-hockey-tournament-bracket-frozen-four-wisconsin-minnesota-northeastern-boston-college-bc

<a href="https://www.bcinterruption.com/boston-college-bc-eagles-womens-hockey/2019/2/23/18237517/ncaa-womens-hockey-tournament-bracket-frozen-four-wisconsin-minnesota-northeastern-boston-college-bc">
<img src="https://i.imgur.com/8UPeFlc.png" alt="Click here to go to the Predictor!" width="750" height="750">
</a>

TonyTheTiger20
02-23-2019, 06:02 PM
I'm seeing a pretty reasonable chance for BC to get in even if they lose in the semifinal, as long as someone completely random doesn't win a conference tournament. BU and PC and NU are fine, anyone above Colgate is fine... if that happens, I'm seeing BC 7th with a quarterfinal sweep.

We'll be 4th if we win out and Princeton or worse wins the ECAC. Otherwise, 5th/6th seems likely.

I can't remember a year when there was so much movement possible for such a large swatch of the field.... 4th through, like, 10th in the PWR is wild. I even see a reasonable path for Providence to get in now of all things.

Still Eeyore
02-23-2019, 09:29 PM
1) It looks to me that, so long as Wisconsin sweeps St Cloud next week, there's no way for Northeastern to catch either the Gophers or Badgers, so those are your #1 and #2 seeds

2) It looks like Ohio State can still make it as an at large team, if they lose to Minnesota in the WCHA final, either Cornell or Clarkson wins the ECAC, and the HE final is played between some combination of New Hampshire, Merrimack, BC and Northeastern and neither of the first two win it. (Princeton winning their semi isn't enough to push them ahead of OSU in that case, but it is enough for either BU or Providence.)

vicb
02-24-2019, 08:57 AM
Putting on my Green and Gold Glasses and using your Pairwise Predictor it looks like Clarkson can make the NC$$ Tourney even if they lose in the ECAC semifinal as long as they sweep Quinny in the first round (not a guarantee at all) and there is no upset winner in HE or the WCHA. If they lose one of the games to Quinny then they can still make it but there is a few more scenarios that would leave them out.

vicb
02-24-2019, 01:56 PM
Was playing with the predictor trying to get Clarkson its highest RPI and seeing if it could be greater than Northeastern

UVM in 3
BC 2---->BC
BU 3---->BU---->BU is HE Champ
Prov 3

Minn
Wisco 2------>Wisco
OSU 2
Minn Dul 2---->Minn Dul WCHA Champ

Corn 2------>Corn
Colg 3
Clark 2------> Clark----->Clark ECAC Champ
Prinny 3

Mercy
Penn St
Rob Morr
All sweep last week of CHA Reg Season

Syr ------>Syr
Mercy
Penn St
Rob Morr----> Rob Morr-----> Rob Morr CHA Champ

If I do this, Clarkson ends up with .60019 RPI and Northeastern .59848 RPI but your spread sheet still has Northeastern with the #3 seed and Clarkson #4.

Not likely to happen but lets get this corrected ;) . Would send a screen shot but don't know how to do it here.

Still Eeyore
02-24-2019, 02:08 PM
Was playing with the predictor trying to get Clarkson its highest RPI and seeing if it could be greater than Northeastern

UVM in 3
BC 2---->BC
BU 3---->BU---->BU is HE Champ
Prov 3

Minn
Wisco 2------>Wisco
OSU 2
Minn Dul 2---->Minn Dul WCHA Champ

Corn 2------>Corn
Colg 3
Clark 2------> Clark----->Clark ECAC Champ
Prinny 3

Mercy
Penn St
Rob Morr
All sweep last week of CHA Reg Season

Syr ------>Syr
Mercy
Penn St
Rob Morr----> Rob Morr-----> Rob Morr CHA Champ

If I do this, Clarkson ends up with .60019 RPI and Northeastern .59848 RPI but your spread sheet still has Northeastern with the #3 seed and Clarkson #4.

Not likely to happen but lets get this corrected ;) . Would send a screen shot but don't know how to do it here.

Does the RPI calculation shown include the quality win bonus?

The thing that I find fascinating about the scenario you've constructed is that it has Minnesota holding on to the #1 seed despite losing in the WCHA semi.

ARM
02-24-2019, 02:11 PM
If I do this, Clarkson ends up with .60019 RPI and Northeastern .59848 RPI but your spread sheet still has Northeastern with the #3 seed and Clarkson #4.

Not likely to happen but lets get this corrected ;) . Would send a screen shot but don't know how to do it here.Northeastern holds a H2H point over Clarkson, so it would come down to who wins COP to decide that PairWise pair, not RPI. Did you figure that out with your scenario?

vicb
02-24-2019, 02:12 PM
Does the RPI calculation shown include the quality win bonus?

The thing that I find fascinating about the scenario you've constructed is that it has Minnesota holding on to the #1 seed despite losing in the WCHA semi.

I have no idea if the QWB is included. Leave that to Grant to tell us.

TonyTheTiger20
02-24-2019, 02:14 PM
Northeastern holds a H2H point over Clarkson, so it would come down to who wins COP to decide that PairWise pair, not RPI. Did you figure that out with your scenario?

It is likely this. If you input that scenario, go over to the PWR tab and select NU and Clarkson at the top and see the comparison breakdown.

vicb
02-24-2019, 02:14 PM
Northeastern holds a H2H point over Clarkson, so it would come down to who wins COP to decide that PairWise pair, not RPI. Did you figure that out with your scenario?

No I did not, I thought RPI was the deciding factor. So maybe the spreadsheet is correct. I no longer have it and am to lazy to do it again. :)

TonyTheTiger20
02-24-2019, 02:15 PM
I have no idea if the QWB is included. Leave that to Grant to tell us.

Yep it is

ARM
02-24-2019, 02:23 PM
No I did not, I thought RPI was the deciding factor.RPI is; except for when it isn't, like when one team owns a +3 H2H or +1 H2H along with COP. It was even more fun in the days of TUC and L16. :)

Numbers
02-24-2019, 07:34 PM
I forget how this works:
4 AutoBids, so either RoMo or Mercyhurst would more than likely take the #8 spot?
Then, the committee doesn't have to use the straight PWR....they can weight the pieces as the wish?

Likely is:
MINN and WISC #1 and 2, and the only teams from the West? (Unless OSU has a big run)
That means travel will likely simply fall according to seeding, right?

TonyTheTiger20
02-24-2019, 07:40 PM
I forget how this works:
4 AutoBids, so either RoMo or Mercyhurst would more than likely take the #8 spot?
Then, the committee doesn't have to use the straight PWR....they can weight the pieces as the wish?

Likely is:
MINN and WISC #1 and 2, and the only teams from the West? (Unless OSU has a big run)
That means travel will likely simply fall according to seeding, right?
All correct. Although, with the committee having a little bit of leeway on the PWR, you may end up seeing BC (or BU if they make it) going to NU regardless of where they end up if in the bottom 4, like they did a couple years ago, to save some money on hotel rooms or something.

TonyTheTiger20
02-24-2019, 07:43 PM
Was playing with the predictor trying to get Clarkson its highest RPI and seeing if it could be greater than Northeastern

UVM in 3
BC 2---->BC
BU 3---->BU---->BU is HE Champ
Prov 3

Minn
Wisco 2------>Wisco
OSU 2
Minn Dul 2---->Minn Dul WCHA Champ

Corn 2------>Corn
Colg 3
Clark 2------> Clark----->Clark ECAC Champ
Prinny 3

Mercy
Penn St
Rob Morr
All sweep last week of CHA Reg Season

Syr ------>Syr
Mercy
Penn St
Rob Morr----> Rob Morr-----> Rob Morr CHA Champ

If I do this, Clarkson ends up with .60019 RPI and Northeastern .59848 RPI but your spread sheet still has Northeastern with the #3 seed and Clarkson #4.

Not likely to happen but lets get this corrected ;) . Would send a screen shot but don't know how to do it here.

I ran this, and here's the comparison:

<img src="https://i.imgur.com/1TLzP9W.png" width="700">

The only common opponent between NU and Clarkson was Colgate -- NU was 0.500 against Colgate, so Clarkson has to at least go 0.500 to be able to win the comparison with NU -- which they can't do, because they're 0-2 right now with at most one game left. So there you go. It's impossible for Clarkson to flip the NU comparinson (like BC's with UMD).

TonyTheTiger20
02-24-2019, 07:45 PM
One bit of housekeeping -- the NEWHA 3rd place game was cancelled due to a scheduling conflict, so the bracket has been updated to remove that game.

Also, per a source, the NEWHA will not do a 3rd place game anymore in the future.

joecct
02-25-2019, 11:45 AM
One bit of housekeeping -- the NEWHA 3rd place game was cancelled due to a scheduling conflict, so the bracket has been updated to remove that game.

Also, per a source, the NEWHA will not do a 3rd place game anymore in the future.

Guess the 20 minute OTs last year was the dagger.

TonyTheTiger20
02-25-2019, 11:49 AM
Guess the 20 minute OTs last year was the dagger.
Imagine thinking unlimited OT in a 3rd place game is a good idea

vicb
02-25-2019, 12:55 PM
Imagine thinking unlimited OT in a 3rd place game is a good idea

If a certain goalie was going for the saves record in a career might not be a bad idea. ;)