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2019 Pairwise Predictor

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  • 2019 Pairwise Predictor

    IT'S THAT TIME OF YEAR!

    My annual Pairwise predictor is live. Instructions are self-explanatory, but basically input results in the drop downs and it will spit out the resulting Pairwise rankings.

    Let me know if you have any questions or any other bug reports. And also, any interesting scenarios you can find.

    NOTE THAT IT'S A HUGE FILE IT WILL SOMETIMES TAKE 5 SECONDS OR SO TO UPDATE THE NEXT ROUNDS WITH THE RESULTS YOU ENTERED. It will also not include the autobids until all results are entered.

    Enjoy!

    https://www.bcinterruption.com/bosto...ton-college-bc


    Click here to go to the Predictor!
    Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
    Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
    Twitter: @Salzano14


    Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

  • #2
    Re: 2019 Pairwise Predictor

    I'm seeing a pretty reasonable chance for BC to get in even if they lose in the semifinal, as long as someone completely random doesn't win a conference tournament. BU and PC and NU are fine, anyone above Colgate is fine... if that happens, I'm seeing BC 7th with a quarterfinal sweep.

    We'll be 4th if we win out and Princeton or worse wins the ECAC. Otherwise, 5th/6th seems likely.

    I can't remember a year when there was so much movement possible for such a large swatch of the field.... 4th through, like, 10th in the PWR is wild. I even see a reasonable path for Providence to get in now of all things.
    Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
    Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
    Twitter: @Salzano14


    Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: 2019 Pairwise Predictor

      1) It looks to me that, so long as Wisconsin sweeps St Cloud next week, there's no way for Northeastern to catch either the Gophers or Badgers, so those are your #1 and #2 seeds

      2) It looks like Ohio State can still make it as an at large team, if they lose to Minnesota in the WCHA final, either Cornell or Clarkson wins the ECAC, and the HE final is played between some combination of New Hampshire, Merrimack, BC and Northeastern and neither of the first two win it. (Princeton winning their semi isn't enough to push them ahead of OSU in that case, but it is enough for either BU or Providence.)
      Last edited by Still Eeyore; 02-23-2019, 09:32 PM.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: 2019 Pairwise Predictor

        Putting on my Green and Gold Glasses and using your Pairwise Predictor it looks like Clarkson can make the NC$$ Tourney even if they lose in the ECAC semifinal as long as they sweep Quinny in the first round (not a guarantee at all) and there is no upset winner in HE or the WCHA. If they lose one of the games to Quinny then they can still make it but there is a few more scenarios that would leave them out.
        Fan of CLARKSON: 2014, 2017 & 2018 NC$$ WOMEN'S DIV 1 HOCKEY NATIONAL CHAMPIONS *******https://fanforum.uscho.com/core/images/smilies/smile.gi*********
        And of 3 Patty Kaz recepients: Jamie Lee Rattray, Loren Gabel and Elizabeth Giguere
        WHOOOOOOOOO WHOOOOOOOOO
        If Union Can Do It So Can CCT (One of These Years) *******https://fanforum.uscho.com/core/images/smilies/smile.gi*********

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: 2019 Pairwise Predictor

          Was playing with the predictor trying to get Clarkson its highest RPI and seeing if it could be greater than Northeastern

          UVM in 3
          BC 2---->BC
          BU 3---->BU---->BU is HE Champ
          Prov 3

          Minn
          Wisco 2------>Wisco
          OSU 2
          Minn Dul 2---->Minn Dul WCHA Champ

          Corn 2------>Corn
          Colg 3
          Clark 2------> Clark----->Clark ECAC Champ
          Prinny 3

          Mercy
          Penn St
          Rob Morr
          All sweep last week of CHA Reg Season

          Syr ------>Syr
          Mercy
          Penn St
          Rob Morr----> Rob Morr-----> Rob Morr CHA Champ

          If I do this, Clarkson ends up with .60019 RPI and Northeastern .59848 RPI but your spread sheet still has Northeastern with the #3 seed and Clarkson #4.

          Not likely to happen but lets get this corrected . Would send a screen shot but don't know how to do it here.
          Fan of CLARKSON: 2014, 2017 & 2018 NC$$ WOMEN'S DIV 1 HOCKEY NATIONAL CHAMPIONS *******https://fanforum.uscho.com/core/images/smilies/smile.gi*********
          And of 3 Patty Kaz recepients: Jamie Lee Rattray, Loren Gabel and Elizabeth Giguere
          WHOOOOOOOOO WHOOOOOOOOO
          If Union Can Do It So Can CCT (One of These Years) *******https://fanforum.uscho.com/core/images/smilies/smile.gi*********

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: 2019 Pairwise Predictor

            Originally posted by vicb View Post
            Was playing with the predictor trying to get Clarkson its highest RPI and seeing if it could be greater than Northeastern

            UVM in 3
            BC 2---->BC
            BU 3---->BU---->BU is HE Champ
            Prov 3

            Minn
            Wisco 2------>Wisco
            OSU 2
            Minn Dul 2---->Minn Dul WCHA Champ

            Corn 2------>Corn
            Colg 3
            Clark 2------> Clark----->Clark ECAC Champ
            Prinny 3

            Mercy
            Penn St
            Rob Morr
            All sweep last week of CHA Reg Season

            Syr ------>Syr
            Mercy
            Penn St
            Rob Morr----> Rob Morr-----> Rob Morr CHA Champ

            If I do this, Clarkson ends up with .60019 RPI and Northeastern .59848 RPI but your spread sheet still has Northeastern with the #3 seed and Clarkson #4.

            Not likely to happen but lets get this corrected . Would send a screen shot but don't know how to do it here.
            Does the RPI calculation shown include the quality win bonus?

            The thing that I find fascinating about the scenario you've constructed is that it has Minnesota holding on to the #1 seed despite losing in the WCHA semi.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: 2019 Pairwise Predictor

              Originally posted by vicb View Post
              If I do this, Clarkson ends up with .60019 RPI and Northeastern .59848 RPI but your spread sheet still has Northeastern with the #3 seed and Clarkson #4.

              Not likely to happen but lets get this corrected . Would send a screen shot but don't know how to do it here.
              Northeastern holds a H2H point over Clarkson, so it would come down to who wins COP to decide that PairWise pair, not RPI. Did you figure that out with your scenario?
              "... And lose, and start again at your beginnings
              And never breathe a word about your loss;" -- Rudyard Kipling

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: 2019 Pairwise Predictor

                Originally posted by Still Eeyore View Post
                Does the RPI calculation shown include the quality win bonus?

                The thing that I find fascinating about the scenario you've constructed is that it has Minnesota holding on to the #1 seed despite losing in the WCHA semi.
                I have no idea if the QWB is included. Leave that to Grant to tell us.
                Fan of CLARKSON: 2014, 2017 & 2018 NC$$ WOMEN'S DIV 1 HOCKEY NATIONAL CHAMPIONS *******https://fanforum.uscho.com/core/images/smilies/smile.gi*********
                And of 3 Patty Kaz recepients: Jamie Lee Rattray, Loren Gabel and Elizabeth Giguere
                WHOOOOOOOOO WHOOOOOOOOO
                If Union Can Do It So Can CCT (One of These Years) *******https://fanforum.uscho.com/core/images/smilies/smile.gi*********

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by ARM View Post
                  Northeastern holds a H2H point over Clarkson, so it would come down to who wins COP to decide that PairWise pair, not RPI. Did you figure that out with your scenario?
                  It is likely this. If you input that scenario, go over to the PWR tab and select NU and Clarkson at the top and see the comparison breakdown.
                  Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
                  Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
                  Twitter: @Salzano14


                  Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: 2019 Pairwise Predictor

                    Originally posted by ARM View Post
                    Northeastern holds a H2H point over Clarkson, so it would come down to who wins COP to decide that PairWise pair, not RPI. Did you figure that out with your scenario?
                    No I did not, I thought RPI was the deciding factor. So maybe the spreadsheet is correct. I no longer have it and am to lazy to do it again.
                    Fan of CLARKSON: 2014, 2017 & 2018 NC$$ WOMEN'S DIV 1 HOCKEY NATIONAL CHAMPIONS *******https://fanforum.uscho.com/core/images/smilies/smile.gi*********
                    And of 3 Patty Kaz recepients: Jamie Lee Rattray, Loren Gabel and Elizabeth Giguere
                    WHOOOOOOOOO WHOOOOOOOOO
                    If Union Can Do It So Can CCT (One of These Years) *******https://fanforum.uscho.com/core/images/smilies/smile.gi*********

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by vicb View Post
                      I have no idea if the QWB is included. Leave that to Grant to tell us.
                      Yep it is
                      Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
                      Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
                      Twitter: @Salzano14


                      Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: 2019 Pairwise Predictor

                        Originally posted by vicb View Post
                        No I did not, I thought RPI was the deciding factor.
                        RPI is; except for when it isn't, like when one team owns a +3 H2H or +1 H2H along with COP. It was even more fun in the days of TUC and L16.
                        "... And lose, and start again at your beginnings
                        And never breathe a word about your loss;" -- Rudyard Kipling

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: 2019 Pairwise Predictor

                          I forget how this works:
                          4 AutoBids, so either RoMo or Mercyhurst would more than likely take the #8 spot?
                          Then, the committee doesn't have to use the straight PWR....they can weight the pieces as the wish?

                          Likely is:
                          MINN and WISC #1 and 2, and the only teams from the West? (Unless OSU has a big run)
                          That means travel will likely simply fall according to seeding, right?

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: 2019 Pairwise Predictor

                            Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                            I forget how this works:
                            4 AutoBids, so either RoMo or Mercyhurst would more than likely take the #8 spot?
                            Then, the committee doesn't have to use the straight PWR....they can weight the pieces as the wish?

                            Likely is:
                            MINN and WISC #1 and 2, and the only teams from the West? (Unless OSU has a big run)
                            That means travel will likely simply fall according to seeding, right?
                            All correct. Although, with the committee having a little bit of leeway on the PWR, you may end up seeing BC (or BU if they make it) going to NU regardless of where they end up if in the bottom 4, like they did a couple years ago, to save some money on hotel rooms or something.
                            Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
                            Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
                            Twitter: @Salzano14


                            Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: 2019 Pairwise Predictor

                              Originally posted by vicb View Post
                              Was playing with the predictor trying to get Clarkson its highest RPI and seeing if it could be greater than Northeastern

                              UVM in 3
                              BC 2---->BC
                              BU 3---->BU---->BU is HE Champ
                              Prov 3

                              Minn
                              Wisco 2------>Wisco
                              OSU 2
                              Minn Dul 2---->Minn Dul WCHA Champ

                              Corn 2------>Corn
                              Colg 3
                              Clark 2------> Clark----->Clark ECAC Champ
                              Prinny 3

                              Mercy
                              Penn St
                              Rob Morr
                              All sweep last week of CHA Reg Season

                              Syr ------>Syr
                              Mercy
                              Penn St
                              Rob Morr----> Rob Morr-----> Rob Morr CHA Champ

                              If I do this, Clarkson ends up with .60019 RPI and Northeastern .59848 RPI but your spread sheet still has Northeastern with the #3 seed and Clarkson #4.

                              Not likely to happen but lets get this corrected . Would send a screen shot but don't know how to do it here.
                              I ran this, and here's the comparison:



                              The only common opponent between NU and Clarkson was Colgate -- NU was 0.500 against Colgate, so Clarkson has to at least go 0.500 to be able to win the comparison with NU -- which they can't do, because they're 0-2 right now with at most one game left. So there you go. It's impossible for Clarkson to flip the NU comparinson (like BC's with UMD).
                              Last edited by TonyTheTiger20; 02-25-2019, 10:03 AM.
                              Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
                              Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
                              Twitter: @Salzano14


                              Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

                              Comment

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