UNH 2018-19: Souza The Opportunity

[Dan]

Re: UNH 2018-19: Souza The Opportunity

Yup, a UNH sweep would surprise me, too, given we have not done so since a year ago October, right?

I predict a tie on Friday without Max and a win on Saturday with Max. How is that for optimism, from one who predicted more than 13.5 wins at the beginning of the season?

Touche - I suppose I should have said, UNH avoiding at least one loss would really surprise me. A number of things could happen this weekend without raising an eyebrow. A split is probably most likely - Miami has split its last three trips east to play HE schools (UML this season, Maine last season, Providence the year before). But, they are also much improved. If Miami gets depth scoring, they'll sweep.

Regarding Friday without Max - UNH has scored exactly two goals in five of their last six games (relying on Max to create one of those goals). In the sixth game they scored just once on a goal set up by Gildon. It would not surprise me if they scored 2 or 3 and managed to win. If they do, it will be because they commit to scoring goals of the ugly variety. Still, expecting them to breakout offensively without Gildon does seem a bit optimistic. Its simply hard to win scoring two goals or less. Max also leaves A LOT of minutes that need to be picked up by the remaining defensemen in terms of goal-prevention...

I think they'll lose Friday and attempt to salvage the weekend on Saturday with equal 33.3% chances to win, lose or draw...

[Snively65]

Touche - I suppose I should have said, UNH avoiding at least one loss would really surprise me. A number of things could happen this weekend without raising an eyebrow. A split is probably most likely - Miami has split its last three trips east to play HE schools (UML this season, Maine last season, Providence the year before). But, they are also much improved. If Miami gets depth scoring, they'll sweep.

Regarding Friday without Max - UNH has scored exactly two goals in five of their last six games (relying on Max to create one of those goals). In the sixth game they scored just once on a goal set up by Gildon. It would not surprise me if they scored 2 or 3 and managed to win. If they do, it will be because they commit to scoring goals of the ugly variety. Still, expecting them to breakout offensively without Gildon does seem a bit optimistic. Its simply hard to win scoring two goals or less. Max also leaves A LOT of minutes that need to be picked up by the remaining defensemen in terms of goal-prevention...

I think they'll lose Friday and attempt to salvage the weekend on Saturday with equal 33.3% chances to win, lose or draw...

Wow, only a 33.33% chance to salvage a point or two from the weekend? That is depressing, Dan.

Turns out that I will attend the Friday night Miami game, and not Saturday, as Bentley is facing BC for the first time ever at 3 pm on Friday. So, a double header for me, although 80 miles apart.

[HockeyRef]

Wow, only a 33.33% chance to salvage a point or two from the weekend? That is depressing, Dan.

Turns out that I will attend the Friday night Miami game, and not Saturday, as Bentley is facing BC for the first time ever at 3 pm on Friday. So, a double header for me, although 80 miles apart.

Kind of like rock, paper, scissors! Well I’m excited to
See the RedHawks it’s always good to play decent competition. I’m thinking we rise to the occasion and get a split. Thanks for the detailed overview Dan...they sound like a well coached put together team. ‘Cats V Birds!!

[scoreboard]

It won’t be an easy weekend for a UNH team that cannot score goals up against a Miami team that ranks fifth in the nation in goals allowed at just 1.86 goals per game. Miami has allowed more than two goals in just four of 14 contests, posting three shutouts and allowing one goal or less half the time.

Now, Miami has not played a murderer’s row schedule to date – their nine wins and staunch defensive performance includes a pair of wins over Alabama Huntsville and another win against Mercyhurst. In those three games they allowed one goal combined. That certainly contributes to their gaudy defensive numbers. That said, they do have a win over North Dakota on their resume as well…

Against common opponents, Miami is 3-1-0 with a sweep of Colgate by a combined score of 10-1 (versus UNH’s 2-4 output) and a split at Colorado College (1-2 & 3-2). In three match-ups with Hockey East opponents Miami is just 1-2-0, falling to Providence, 3-0, and splitting at UMass-Lowell (0-3, 2-1). The RedHawks have split three-straight conference series heading into this weekend, with Omaha, North Dakota and CC.

Miami’s defensive success starts in net with Ryan Larkin – who is a three-year starter with a lot of experience and has gotten better each season. At 6-0, Larkin is superb athlete and really competes for pucks. In the past, his problems have stemmed from a tendency to kick rebounds right back into prime scoring areas. UNH will have to follow their shots and hunt loose pucks if they want to snap their scoring drought this weekend.

When Larkin plays, Miami is even better defensively – he has posted a .941 SPCT and a 1.67 GAA so far this season. If Miami is playing well in front of Larkin or if he’s controlling his rebounds, it could be a long weekend for the Wildcat offense…

Miami, after struggling for two seasons, made a lot of hard decisions last off-season, firing both assistant coaches and cutting nearly 10 skaters. They overhauls were particularly notable on defense where they regularly play three newcomers – a pair of FR and Dartmouth graduate transfer River Rymsha. Two mainstays from last season (juniors Frederic and Switzer have played just three games between them).

The top-3 defenseman include the aforementioned Grant Hutton and a couple of FR in Derek Dashke (3-8-11), and offensive minded defenseman, and the more stay-at-home Bray Crowder. Miami poached both defensive recruits from Omaha, late in the process, after hiring Manino early last summer.

Hutton is their Max Gildon – a terrific skater with good size and a minute muncher. He will be on the ice in all key situations and is especially dangerous on the PP. They’ll look to set him up for slap-shots and one-timers and he has a great shot. He especially loves to walk down to the top of the slot between the circles and bomb away. He’ll probably skate with Rourke Russell who is just a picture of steadiness, a smooth skater and the perfect defenseman to play with the offensive-minded Hutton. The type of D-man UNH is currently missing to pair with Gildon which would allow him to really flourish.

Dashke is a real nice young player who has made the seamless transition to NCAA Hockey. He’s provided the bulk of Miami’s FR scoring from the blueline – with the rest being made up by quantity more than any early-career quality.

The other three regular defensemen can be had – the first three will play a lot, but UNH needs to target and attack the bottom three whenever possible. Sinard is a big freshman still learning how to move around the college rink – he may struggle on the big ice in Durham (and I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t play as a result). Mahalek is a risk-taking offensive guy – and he’s just OK at that. He gets beat back up ice a lot and can be a defensive liability versus speedy forwards. He plays to play on the PP. Rymsha is the same average player he was at Dartmouth.

Offensively, Miami is top-heavy – but their top is really strong – especially when they get support from their more gifted offensive defensemen. Gordie Green is Miami’s most dangerous player and Josh Melnick is not far behind (as referenced above he is closing in on 100 points). Both are averaging near a point per game this season. Green has 6-6—12, with a knack for scoring big goals, and Melnick has posted 4-9—13.

This line and this team would be much more dangerous – and perhaps a consistent top-10 team if they hadn’t blown it with Carson Meyer. If you don’t know the story, google it – but fair warning, its gross. To sum it up, Meyer after a big FR year struggled as a SO with an illness no one could diagnose. He’s now at Ohio State and among their top scoring players…

An interesting aside for Josh Melnick, he was originally set to go to Princeton before changing his mind late (and able to do so only due to no NLI’s at Ivy League schools). What a recruiting class for Princeton – Verroneau, Kufner, Teves may already be the best recruited trio in the country, when looking back after four years, but add Melnick - he would be equally as dynamic playing with the other two forwards - and, Wow. If Ron Fogarty can reload after he loses this class, he should be on the radar of any bigger school looking for a head coach in the near future…

Karch Bachman is Miami’s other dangerous threat – he’ll play on the second line with a mix of linemates. He is a BIG BOY with some skill and he’ll go to the net hard. UNH cannot let him camp out like they did with Bowers…

The rest of the forward group is a mix of talented players who are extremely inconsistent in Knies, Lown and Gilling (these three should really produce more than they do), freshmen still finding their way in Gruden, Hawkinson, Corbett and Graham and role players. When Miami gets offense from these players, and doesn’t have to rely solely on its top-tandem, they’re really tough to beat. Knies and Gilling are especially capable and can be really good when they bring their best games…

Miami is a MUCH better team this year than the last couple, its been an impressive turnaround, but they still have a long way to go and lack consistency. Blasi has probably saved his job for the time being after being under the gun at the end of last year. I predicted a split at the beginning of the year and that is still very possible for UNH.

Without Gildon, scoring will be much more difficult for the Wildcats against what has been a very good defensive team this year, however. It will be interesting to see if UNH is forced to find offense from other sources of if their two-goal (one from Max) offense sputters even more. Miami will definitely be coming into Durham thinking sweep, but they have been a very hard team to predict the last few years. Not only whether they win or lose, but whether they play well or not, score a bunch or not, allow a bunch or not. Anything goes this weekend, I’d imagine. If I had to guess, I’d predict a pair of low-scoring games, with UNH either splitting or at least grabbing one tie. Miami could sweep – it wouldn’t surprise me at all. A UNH sweep certainly would be a surprise, at least to me…

War and Peace was shorter.... in summary, no prediction.

[Snively65]

War and Peace was shorter....

You mean, Tolstoy's "War, What Is It Good For?" According to Elaine Benes.

[Dan]

War and Peace was shorter.... in summary, no prediction.

I wasn't asked to do a prediction - I was asked for a scouting report on Miami. And it seems to have been appreciated by the person who asked, which wasn't you, btw...

I'll tell you though, knowing that you still couldn't put it down and already finished means a lot! An instant classic! Knowing it eventually bothered you enough to respond with this - the absolute icing on the cake. Five minutes of your time I'll own forever...

[scoreboard]

You mean, Tolstoy's "War, What Is It Good For?" According to Elaine Benes.

Seinfeld is good

[Snively65]

I wasn't asked to do a prediction - I was asked for a scouting report on Miami. And it seems to have been appreciated by the person who asked, which wasn't you, btw...

I'll tell you though, knowing that you still couldn't put it down and already finished means a lot! An instant classic! Knowing it eventually bothered you enough to respond with this - the absolute icing on the cake. Five minutes of your time I'll own forever...

Just for the record, Dan, I also always appreciate your detailed posts, especially when you and Chuck get into it. Makes for a great thread, the envy of many, :-)

[Snively65]

Seinfeld is good

I do not know how to post Youtube links with my iPhone, but you know the one. :-)

[scoreboard]

I wasn't asked to do a prediction - I was asked for a scouting report on Miami. And it seems to have been appreciated by the person who asked, which wasn't you, btw...

I'll tell you though, knowing that you still couldn't put it down and already finished means a lot! An instant classic! Knowing it eventually bothered you enough to respond with this - the absolute icing on the cake. Five minutes of your time I'll own forever...

Sorry to disappoint you. When you post I immediately scroll to the end. If you could no longer be on google what would you do with your spare time? Which you seem to have plenty of.

[chickod]

Re: UNH 2018-19: Souza The Opportunity

You mean, Tolstoy's "War, What Is It Good For?" According to Elaine Benes.

Edwin Starr

[Snively65]

Edwin Starr

Not the YouTube link I had in mind, chickod. :-)

Meanwhile, Chuck's Dead Wings and my B's are locked in a 2-2 tie, with the B's depleted blue line yielding a goal to NHL villainous assasin Todd Bertuzzi's nephew Tyler for the bad guys in Detroit.

[HockeyRef]

Not the YouTube link I had in mind, chickod. :-)

Meanwhile, Chuck's Dead Wings and my B's are locked in a 2-2 tie, with the B's depleted blue line yielding a goal to NHL villainous assasin Todd Bertuzzi's nephew Tyler for the bad guys in Detroit.

....Arghhhhh and we lose in OT 🙄

[Snively65]

....Arghhhhh and we lose in OT 🙄

Former Black Bears Nyquist assist on second Dead Wings goal; Grrrr!

[HockeyRef]

Former Black Bears Nyquist assist on second Dead Wings goal; Grrrr!

....and Jimmy Howard in net!