Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

[trixR4kids]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

Yes, not scoring is a problem. That’s a factor of zone time and shot quantity. The D bares a lot of responsibility on both of those, you can’t get to the offensive zone if you’re stuck in your own end and you can’t sustain pressure if you pass the puck and they throw it away aimlessly or shoot it right into someone’s shin pads. It’s not like the forwards can endlessly cycle and pass it solely to other forwards in the offensive zone, at some point you need to pass it to the D and have confidence that they’ll do something that doesn’t kill the play at the very least.

If that wasn’t the case you’d have one of them on each power play, the fact that they went to five forwards illustrates my point perfectly, the coaches have no confidence in their ability to do anything offensively and they figure the team is better off with them not on the ice in those situations. It also tells you a lot about why this team struggles to score at five on five. There’s a reason Motzko mentioned moving Novak to D, your coach doesn’t do that if you have even an average defensive unit. You can’t just argue the the forwards get all the blame for the offense, none of the credit for the PK, and the D get all the credit for the good goals against metric, it’s absolutely ludicrous.

If they were even mediocre at their job we’d probably be better than 35th in that area (and not bottom 10 in shots against).

[Slap Shot]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

Ok you've convinced yourself so you have that going for you.

[SteveO]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

Wow...and here I thought I was the only STAT NERD on this thread. Welcome aboard gentlemen!

The Fenwick For Pct. (FF%) stat is used a lot in the NHL and measures % of unblocked shots taken vs opponents. The Gophers are 51st out of 60 teams in FF% even strength indicating:

1) The offense has been severely outshot in unblocked shot attempts.
2) The defense has been allowing too many unblocked shot attempts

So you're both right...kinda.

Since the Gophers are 13th overall in SV% (.917 right behind OSU) that would suggest that despite the D allowing too many unblocked shot attempts, good goaltending (Robson and Schierhorn) has often bailed the team out. That correlates with the current overall GA @ 2.63 which is identical to last season and lowest over 5 previous seasons, the next lowest being the FF runner-up team of 2013-14 (2.10)

Shot totals per period indicate the Gophers have been outshot in every period, the third being the worst with a ranking of 50th. Their GF% and ranking of 32nd (2.79) would improve with an increase in SOG. This is mainly a problem with offensive production, not defense. Although D driving pucks from the perimeter into the shins of opposing players was a problem early, it seems to be happening less over the past few games.

Fenwick For Pct. (FF%) Close, % of unblocked shots taken vs opponents with a one goal difference in the score, may have predictive value indicating who will be left standing in the postseason given the majority of the top PWR teams currently rank high in this metric. The Gophers are 54th which may support the Gophers 3rd period SOG meltdown in close games this season.

For the record, the Gopher's overall SOG avg. is the lowest in recent history (27.6) and the Gophers rank 41st. There was never a team during Don Lucia's tenure with a SOG avg. less than 30+ even in his transition season of 1999-2000.

They've scored no more than two goals in nine of their 15 first-half games. Five of those nine games were losses and four were ties.

Two important road series with Notre Dame and Sparty on deck and the Gophers are ranked 56/60 in road goals (2 goals/game). As teams gear up for a second half surge, that's not gonna cut it. Gophers must find a way for quality SOG to increase road goals/game and the D needs to play better D.

[trixR4kids]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

Having better Dmen couldn't possibly help our offense go from mediocre to good and Bob is going with five forwards because he wants to make his PP worse

[SteveO]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

Having better Dmen couldn't possibly help our offense go from mediocre to good and Bob is going with five forwards because he wants to make his PP worse

I have to admit I haven't seen the configuration, but if Bob is sending out 5Fs on the PP, then it's a modified 1-3-1 four-forward Torpedo system which I've personally skated on in the past. The 5Fs setup is most likely two torpedo Fs, two halfbacks and a point (F instead of a D).

The emergence of a four-forward power play has become something of a norm in recent seasons in the NHL. Some teams (i.e. Panthers, Maple Leafs, etc.) have gone with a 5Fs PP based more on the principle that Fs naturally have better offensive skill, not necessarily because the D is bad. I think that may be the case with Bob trying out some new things on the PP.

Moreover, most SH goals are the result of a breakaway, often times because of a soft pass at the blue line which can be defended against with either a F or D. Therefore, some argue that a D’s defensive skill is not essential on the power play, and his lack of offensive skill may hinder PP success. In a sport where converting on a single power play can mean winning that game, NCAA teams may start to get a bit more creative in who they send out on those man-up opportunities.

[Slap Shot]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

Having better Dmen couldn't possibly help our offense go from mediocre to good and Bob is going with five forwards because he wants to make his PP worse

The defense needs to be better, but the fact is their GAA is not as problematic as their Sh% and I repeat that their SOG per game is only 4 less (just over 1 per period) than they are giving up. And since no Dmen are being used on the PP which unit is more at fault for the PP% being 18th?

[Bonin21]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

Lmao when the defense is so bad they can't even get a guy on the PP and because of that you try to "blame" the five forwards that have a respectable PP at 15th in the country.

[trixR4kids]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

The defense needs to be better, but the fact is their GAA is not as problematic as their Sh% and I repeat that their SOG per game is only 4 less (just over 1 per period) than they are giving up. And since no Dmen are being used on the PP which unit is more at fault for the PP% being 18th?

18th is above average so... that's not even bad.

The sh% woes I can't say is all that shocking, but it's also the most volatile stat in terms of variance/luck so who knows on that one. It's still slightly above average.

And yes they give up only four more shots per game than they take but it's still bottom ten in the country in terms of shot suppression. Dmen generally bare more responsibility there and there's not a single Dman on this team outside of Denman/Stucker (small sample size against lesser opponents) above 50% in terms of shot differential. Heck the best Dmen on this team are probably Sadek and Nanne, that says it all.

[Slap Shot]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

Lmao when the defense is so bad they can't even get a guy on the PP and because of that you try to "blame" the five forwards that have a respectable PP at 15th in the country.

They generate 4.85 SH/PP yet the PP is only 18th not 15th (PK is 13th) and SOG results are within 4 of their opponents. They are 22nd in Sh% with only 4 players averaging > 0.5 pts/gm. That's just bad.

And once again no one is absolving the defense of their part in this - my point in all this is that too many people seem to focus their angst on the defense imho at the expense of ignoring how bad they have been offensively.

[trixR4kids]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

I have to admit I haven't seen the configuration, but if Bob is sending out 5Fs on the PP, then it's a modified 1-3-1 four-forward Torpedo system which I've personally skated on in the past. The 5Fs setup is most likely two torpedo Fs, two halfbacks and a point (F instead of a D).

The emergence of a four-forward power play has become something of a norm in recent seasons in the NHL. Some teams (i.e. Panthers, Maple Leafs, etc.) have gone with a 5Fs PP based more on the principle that Fs naturally have better offensive skill, not necessarily because the D is bad. I think that may be the case with Bob trying out some new things on the PP.

It's not impossible but when he talked about putting Novak back on D and said that, "there are plays to be made from back there, they're just not being made", reading between the lines you can tell what he was going for. 4 F on the PP is normal but 5F is pretty rare. And I agree that you don't necessarily need any Dmen on the PP but most better teams in the NHL have at least one Dman who helps the PP such as EK, Carlson, Letang, Subban, Morgan Reilly, etc. This team has nobody along those lines.

[Bonin21]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

They generate 4.85 SH/PP yet the PP is only 18th not 15th (PK is 13th) and SOG results are within 4 of their opponents. They are 22nd in Sh% with only 4 players averaging > 0.5 pts/gm. That's just bad.

And once again no one is absolving the defense of their part in this - my point in all this is that too many people seem to focus their angst on the defense imho at the expense of ignoring how bad they have been offensively.

PP is 15th.

http://www.collegehockeystats.net/1819/national/d1m

[Slap Shot]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

PP is 15th.

http://www.collegehockeystats.net/1819/national/d1m

That data is incomplete. They've gone 0/2 since the above tally. https://www.collegehockeynews.com/stats/

Regardless their offense still sucks but keep at it.

[SteveO]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

PP is 15th.

http://www.collegehockeystats.net/1819/national/d1m

According to the Men's D1 NCAA site and updated as of Jan. 8, they're 17th --> https://www.ncaa.com/stats/icehockey...rrent/team/182

[SteveO]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

Gameday!

The Gophers are in South Bend for a crucial B1G series against #9 Notre Dame. If you've been reading this thread you know scoring has been down this season for the Gophers. They scored no more than two goals in nine of their 15 first-half games.

But maybe things are improving slightly for the Gopher offense. In their last eight games of the first half, the Gophers averaged 3.12 goals per game.

The GPS Line of Brent Gates Jr., Rem Pitlick and Tyler Sheehy have combined for 35 points (16 goals, 19 assists) in 10 previous games.

Gates, who was named the Big Ten Second Star of the Week on Tuesday, has scored in five-straight games (a new career mark for the senior).

Sheehy has a point in all 10 games since the line came together for a new career-long point streak.

Pitlick, who has not been held without a point in back-to-back games this season, has points in nine of the last 10 games and responded with three points (one goal, two assists) in last Saturday's win over Penn State after seeing his eight-game point streak snapped on Friday.

Gophers need at least a split to stay within striking distance of a shot at the NCAA tourney. These two teams have been getting good goaltending from Cam Morris (.931) and Mat Robson (.924). The Gophers PP has been good (20.6%). I expect special teams and a goaltending duel between Robson and Morris will play a big role in this series. Go Gophers!

[D2D]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

Good info, SteveO, thanks! The Notre Dame series is always fun because I have a number of relatives who went there, including my brother who played for them way back when. He was a teammate of Don Lucia back when they were members of the WCHA. It was always fun to go to the old Mariucci to see him compete against the Gophers.