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Boring 2018 Bracketology Thread - Here we go again...

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  • Re: Boring 2018 Bracketology Thread - Here we go again...

    Originally posted by klbaum1077 View Post
    Bc right now would be the auto bid from hockey east and would knock out north dakota. Am i wrong?
    Auto bid is the conference tourney winner. It has yet to be determined. BC is just below the pairwise bubble today.
    YALE HOCKEY
    2013 National Champions

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    • Re: Boring 2018 Bracketology Thread - Here we go again...

      Originally posted by LTsatch View Post
      Auto bid is the conference tourney winner. It has yet to be determined. BC is just below the pairwise bubble today.
      I know that but for the sake of picking the tournament teams as of today BC would be the auto bid. Just like they do every week on this site.

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      • Originally posted by klbaum1077 View Post
        Bc right now would be the auto bid from hockey east and would knock out north dakota. Am i wrong?
        What to do with a situation like Hockey East right now is a matter of personal preference. There is no auto bid until the tournament is finished. My personal way of handling it is to assume that the highest PWR team will win the conference tourney. Others assume it's the conference standings leader.

        Also, the Alaska game late last night affected the PWR, and right now, Omaha of slighty ahead of NoDak.

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        • Re: Boring 2018 Bracketology Thread - Here we go again...

          Originally posted by Numbers View Post
          What to do with a situation like Hockey East right now is a matter of personal preference. There is no auto bid until the tournament is finished. My personal way of handling it is to assume that the highest PWR team will win the conference tourney. Others assume it's the conference standings leader.

          Also, the Alaska game late last night affected the PWR, and right now, Omaha of slighty ahead of NoDak.
          Ok i see what you did.

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          • Re: Boring 2018 Bracketology Thread - Here we go again...

            Originally posted by klbaum1077 View Post
            Ok i see what you did.
            My own preference is that it's clearer that way, because you can immediately look at the PWR and say.....
            No AHA team, so the top 15 here are in the tourney..... And, any upset conf champion moves #15 out, then 14, etc.....

            Whereas, if you think...Hey BC is 17th in the PWR but they would be in the field. That means #15 is out. Now, when the cnf tounreys come in, if BC doesn't win, but some other lower ranked team does, it doesn't change anything. But if BC loses, then the #15 is back in. Etc.....

            That 2nd paragraph is just complicated.

            Of course, what happens this year with BC would be more like....If they win the 1/4 finals, their RPI goes up and they might well be top 15 by the time conf finals weekend rolls around. Then, they would NOT be an upset if they won.....

            But, for now, it's easier for me to calculate if I figure someone already in the field is the conf tournament champ.
            Last edited by Numbers; 02-25-2018, 09:07 PM.

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            • Re: Boring 2018 Bracketology Thread - Here we go again...

              Single game this evening changes nothing. Fireworks coming tomorrow. I promise.

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              • Re: Boring 2018 Bracketology Thread - Here we go again...

                If the season ended today

                Code:
                Bridgeport		Worcester		Allentown		Sioux Falls
                Notre Dame*		Cornell*		Ohio State		St Cloud*
                Clarkson		Denver		        Mankato*		Michigan
                Providence		Northeastern		Penn State		Minn-Duluth
                Boston Coll*		Minnesota		Omaha		        Mercyhurst*

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                • Re: Boring 2018 Bracketology Thread - Here we go again...

                  Fireworks: Sun March 4 with 2 weeks left:

                  #1s: SCSU, NoDame, Cornell, OSU
                  #2s: Mankato, Denver, Clarkson, Michigan
                  #3s: Duluth, N'Eastern, Penn State, Providence
                  #4s: Minnesota, Omaha, NoDak, AHA Champ (again, I assume that Northeastern or Providence wins Hockey East)

                  Sioux Falls:NoDame v NoDak; Mich v Duluth
                  Allentown:Ohio State v Omaha; Denver v Penn State
                  Bridgeport: Cornell v Minnesota; Clarkson v Northeastern
                  Worcester:St Cloud v AHA; Mankato v Providence

                  Seems to be the natural bracket, and then I would swap the Cornell and St Cloud games to hopefully produce more attendance at Worcester.
                  NOTE: The difference between my bracket and that of ticapnews is that he assumes BC is the HE auto-bid, and I am not familiar enough in the east to know the proper placing of Northeastern and Providence. But, notice how NoDak falling out of the field affects the entire bracket: It makes a place in Sioux Falls for St Cloud, and that affects everything.

                  But, the things to watch here are:
                  Big Ten will have no upset, as the final 4 are NoDame, OSU, PSU and Mich.
                  NCHC will be hard-pressed to have an upset, and Omaha and NoDak are on the bubble
                  What the poster called Priceless used to call the 'parlay', meaning all Conference tourney upsets, includes, in this case: HE, ECAC and WCHA.
                  Last edited by Numbers; 03-04-2018, 09:42 PM.

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                  • Re: Boring 2018 Bracketology Thread - Here we go again...

                    Friday night March 9.

                    #1s:SCSU, NoDame, Cornell, Mankato
                    #2s: Ohio State, Denver, Michigan, UMD
                    #3s: Northeastern, Providence, Penn State, Clarkson
                    #4s: Minnesota, NoDak, Omaha, AHA Champion

                    Sioux Falls: Mankato v NoDak; OSU v Clarkson
                    Worcester: Cornell v Minnesota; Michigan v Providence
                    Bridgeport: SCSU v AHA; UMD v N'eastern
                    Allentown: NoDame v Omaha; Denver v PSU

                    Or, something like that. 1 v 4 matchups all have to be that way because of SCSU v AHA, and then conference affiliation. 2/3s? Well, Denver doesn't have a natural place, and the east needs help without BC (although BC is getting closer).

                    Things of note: Should Clarkson fail to beat Colgate tomorrow and Sunday, they will fall behind Minnesota at the 12/13 spots. That virtually guarantees Minnesota a spot because of the B10 final four all being in the field, and the lack of possible upsets in the NCHC.

                    Should BC win again, they will likely be top15 to start next week, because of Omaha and NoDak playing each other. Result of that means that only 4 NCHC teams will be candidates, with either Omaha or Nodak being potentially the first one out in a conference upset scenario.

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                    • Re: Boring 2018 Bracketology Thread - Here we go again...

                      What do you think Clarkson chances are of falling out if they lose tonight?
                      YALE HOCKEY
                      2013 National Champions

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                      • Re: Boring 2018 Bracketology Thread - Here we go again...

                        Originally posted by LTsatch View Post
                        What do you think Clarkson chances are of falling out if they lose tonight?
                        Clarkson losing tonight would put them at 13th in RPI. I would give you strong odds that all of the following would be true:
                        1-NoDak beats Omaha either tonight or tomorrow.
                        2- Denver beats CC twice.
                        3- If CC wins one more, they won't win next weekend.
                        Those 3 things, by themselves, move the safe cut to AT WORST 13th being cut. And, that would take all of the following:
                        1-Mankato does NOT win WCHA
                        2-Cornell does NOT win ECAC
                        3-Someone besides NE, Prov, or BC wins HE
                        Plus, the #13 team will have one other chance, too, which is something like this:
                        If No Mich wins the WCHA, and BC does NOT win HE (especially if they lose yet this weekend or in the semis), then NoMich would likely come in at 15th in the final PWR, which would make #13 safe even with the above not going in their favor.

                        So, in short, Clarkson is in very very good position, even having lost last night.

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                        • Re: Boring 2018 Bracketology Thread - Here we go again...

                          Saturday night:
                          Omaha v NoDak game starting OT as I write this:
                          #1s: SCSU, NoDame, Cornell, OSU
                          #2s: Mankato, Denver, Northeastern, Duluth
                          #3s: Providence, Michigan, Clarkson, Penn State
                          #4s: Minnesota, BC, Omaha/NoDak winner, AHA Champ

                          There would be 2 completely different brackets here depending on the outcome of the NoDak game. AND.......as I type, NoDak wins it....so.....

                          Sioux Falls: OSU v NoDak, Mankato v Michigan
                          Allentown: NoDame v BC; Denver v Penn State
                          Worcester: SCSU v AHA; Northeastern v Clarkson
                          Bridgeport: Cornell v Minnesota; Duluth v Providence

                          Or, some approximation thereof.
                          Things of note:
                          It appears that the field is getting more and more stable. Strange possibilities which remain:
                          Princeton, Harvard or Colgate winning ECAC
                          CC making a run to win the NCHC
                          NoMich or Bowling Green winning WCHA.

                          But, here is what seems to make things stable:
                          NoMich and BGSU are close enough to the top 15 that they would likely hit the top 15 anyway, unless NoDak wins a game in St Paul next week.
                          Really, the HE winner will be a top 15 team. BU would pass BC and knock them down if they won the HE tourney.
                          WCHA would almost certainly be top 15.
                          Only CC in the NCHC is odd at all.
                          So, it looks to me as if there is almost no way for even Minnesota to fall out. Almost. No Dak winning NCHC, and Princeton winning ECAC and notMankato winning WCHA would do it.
                          But, I would say, Minnesota is almost in, and the last 2 spots (14/15) are going to be contested by BC, BU, NMU, BGSU and NoDak among who does best.
                          Remember, NCHC has a 3rd place game, too, so NoDak could still lose twice.

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                          • Re: Boring 2018 Bracketology Thread - Here we go again...

                            This might be the most anticlimactic end of the season ever.

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                            • Re: Boring 2018 Bracketology Thread - Here we go again...

                              Originally posted by ticapnews View Post
                              This might be the most anticlimactic end of the season ever.
                              That would depend on who you are rooting for.
                              Believe it. Earn it. Raise it.

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                              • Re: Boring 2018 Bracketology Thread - Here we go again...

                                Originally posted by Siouxfaninseattle View Post
                                That would depend on who you are rooting for.
                                Just from a who's in/who's out perspective. Usually there is some drama (some years quite a bit of drama) after the conference quarters. This year it looks like 13 or 14 of the 16 spots will be set.

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