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LTsatch
02-25-2018, 12:51 PM
Bc right now would be the auto bid from hockey east and would knock out north dakota. Am i wrong?

Auto bid is the conference tourney winner. It has yet to be determined. BC is just below the pairwise bubble today.

klbaum1077
02-25-2018, 01:29 PM
Auto bid is the conference tourney winner. It has yet to be determined. BC is just below the pairwise bubble today.

I know that but for the sake of picking the tournament teams as of today BC would be the auto bid. Just like they do every week on this site.

Numbers
02-25-2018, 01:42 PM
Bc right now would be the auto bid from hockey east and would knock out north dakota. Am i wrong?

What to do with a situation like Hockey East right now is a matter of personal preference. There is no auto bid until the tournament is finished. My personal way of handling it is to assume that the highest PWR team will win the conference tourney. Others assume it's the conference standings leader.

Also, the Alaska game late last night affected the PWR, and right now, Omaha of slighty ahead of NoDak.

klbaum1077
02-25-2018, 01:59 PM
What to do with a situation like Hockey East right now is a matter of personal preference. There is no auto bid until the tournament is finished. My personal way of handling it is to assume that the highest PWR team will win the conference tourney. Others assume it's the conference standings leader.

Also, the Alaska game late last night affected the PWR, and right now, Omaha of slighty ahead of NoDak.

Ok i see what you did.

Numbers
02-25-2018, 09:05 PM
Ok i see what you did.

My own preference is that it's clearer that way, because you can immediately look at the PWR and say.....
No AHA team, so the top 15 here are in the tourney..... And, any upset conf champion moves #15 out, then 14, etc.....

Whereas, if you think...Hey BC is 17th in the PWR but they would be in the field. That means #15 is out. Now, when the cnf tounreys come in, if BC doesn't win, but some other lower ranked team does, it doesn't change anything. But if BC loses, then the #15 is back in. Etc.....

That 2nd paragraph is just complicated.

Of course, what happens this year with BC would be more like....If they win the 1/4 finals, their RPI goes up and they might well be top 15 by the time conf finals weekend rolls around. Then, they would NOT be an upset if they won.....

But, for now, it's easier for me to calculate if I figure someone already in the field is the conf tournament champ.

Numbers
03-01-2018, 09:25 PM
Single game this evening changes nothing. Fireworks coming tomorrow. I promise.

ticapnews
03-04-2018, 08:16 PM
If the season ended today


Bridgeport Worcester Allentown Sioux Falls
Notre Dame* Cornell* Ohio State St Cloud*
Clarkson Denver Mankato* Michigan
Providence Northeastern Penn State Minn-Duluth
Boston Coll* Minnesota Omaha Mercyhurst*

Numbers
03-04-2018, 08:17 PM
Fireworks: Sun March 4 with 2 weeks left:

#1s: SCSU, NoDame, Cornell, OSU
#2s: Mankato, Denver, Clarkson, Michigan
#3s: Duluth, N'Eastern, Penn State, Providence
#4s: Minnesota, Omaha, NoDak, AHA Champ (again, I assume that Northeastern or Providence wins Hockey East)

Sioux Falls:NoDame v NoDak; Mich v Duluth
Allentown:Ohio State v Omaha; Denver v Penn State
Bridgeport: Cornell v Minnesota; Clarkson v Northeastern
Worcester:St Cloud v AHA; Mankato v Providence

Seems to be the natural bracket, and then I would swap the Cornell and St Cloud games to hopefully produce more attendance at Worcester.
NOTE: The difference between my bracket and that of ticapnews is that he assumes BC is the HE auto-bid, and I am not familiar enough in the east to know the proper placing of Northeastern and Providence. But, notice how NoDak falling out of the field affects the entire bracket: It makes a place in Sioux Falls for St Cloud, and that affects everything.

But, the things to watch here are:
Big Ten will have no upset, as the final 4 are NoDame, OSU, PSU and Mich.
NCHC will be hard-pressed to have an upset, and Omaha and NoDak are on the bubble
What the poster called Priceless used to call the 'parlay', meaning all Conference tourney upsets, includes, in this case: HE, ECAC and WCHA.

Numbers
03-09-2018, 10:11 PM
Friday night March 9.

#1s:SCSU, NoDame, Cornell, Mankato
#2s: Ohio State, Denver, Michigan, UMD
#3s: Northeastern, Providence, Penn State, Clarkson
#4s: Minnesota, NoDak, Omaha, AHA Champion

Sioux Falls: Mankato v NoDak; OSU v Clarkson
Worcester: Cornell v Minnesota; Michigan v Providence
Bridgeport: SCSU v AHA; UMD v N'eastern
Allentown: NoDame v Omaha; Denver v PSU

Or, something like that. 1 v 4 matchups all have to be that way because of SCSU v AHA, and then conference affiliation. 2/3s? Well, Denver doesn't have a natural place, and the east needs help without BC (although BC is getting closer).

Things of note: Should Clarkson fail to beat Colgate tomorrow and Sunday, they will fall behind Minnesota at the 12/13 spots. That virtually guarantees Minnesota a spot because of the B10 final four all being in the field, and the lack of possible upsets in the NCHC.

Should BC win again, they will likely be top15 to start next week, because of Omaha and NoDak playing each other. Result of that means that only 4 NCHC teams will be candidates, with either Omaha or Nodak being potentially the first one out in a conference upset scenario.

LTsatch
03-10-2018, 01:41 AM
What do you think Clarkson chances are of falling out if they lose tonight?

Numbers
03-10-2018, 05:26 AM
What do you think Clarkson chances are of falling out if they lose tonight?

Clarkson losing tonight would put them at 13th in RPI. I would give you strong odds that all of the following would be true:
1-NoDak beats Omaha either tonight or tomorrow.
2- Denver beats CC twice.
3- If CC wins one more, they won't win next weekend.
Those 3 things, by themselves, move the safe cut to AT WORST 13th being cut. And, that would take all of the following:
1-Mankato does NOT win WCHA
2-Cornell does NOT win ECAC
3-Someone besides NE, Prov, or BC wins HE
Plus, the #13 team will have one other chance, too, which is something like this:
If No Mich wins the WCHA, and BC does NOT win HE (especially if they lose yet this weekend or in the semis), then NoMich would likely come in at 15th in the final PWR, which would make #13 safe even with the above not going in their favor.

So, in short, Clarkson is in very very good position, even having lost last night.

Numbers
03-10-2018, 10:16 PM
Saturday night:
Omaha v NoDak game starting OT as I write this:
#1s: SCSU, NoDame, Cornell, OSU
#2s: Mankato, Denver, Northeastern, Duluth
#3s: Providence, Michigan, Clarkson, Penn State
#4s: Minnesota, BC, Omaha/NoDak winner, AHA Champ

There would be 2 completely different brackets here depending on the outcome of the NoDak game. AND.......as I type, NoDak wins it....so.....

Sioux Falls: OSU v NoDak, Mankato v Michigan
Allentown: NoDame v BC; Denver v Penn State
Worcester: SCSU v AHA; Northeastern v Clarkson
Bridgeport: Cornell v Minnesota; Duluth v Providence

Or, some approximation thereof.
Things of note:
It appears that the field is getting more and more stable. Strange possibilities which remain:
Princeton, Harvard or Colgate winning ECAC
CC making a run to win the NCHC
NoMich or Bowling Green winning WCHA.

But, here is what seems to make things stable:
NoMich and BGSU are close enough to the top 15 that they would likely hit the top 15 anyway, unless NoDak wins a game in St Paul next week.
Really, the HE winner will be a top 15 team. BU would pass BC and knock them down if they won the HE tourney.
WCHA would almost certainly be top 15.
Only CC in the NCHC is odd at all.
So, it looks to me as if there is almost no way for even Minnesota to fall out. Almost. No Dak winning NCHC, and Princeton winning ECAC and notMankato winning WCHA would do it.
But, I would say, Minnesota is almost in, and the last 2 spots (14/15) are going to be contested by BC, BU, NMU, BGSU and NoDak among who does best.
Remember, NCHC has a 3rd place game, too, so NoDak could still lose twice.

ticapnews
03-10-2018, 10:26 PM
This might be the most anticlimactic end of the season ever.

Siouxfaninseattle
03-10-2018, 10:51 PM
This might be the most anticlimactic end of the season ever.

That would depend on who you are rooting for.

ticapnews
03-10-2018, 10:58 PM
That would depend on who you are rooting for.

Just from a who's in/who's out perspective. Usually there is some drama (some years quite a bit of drama) after the conference quarters. This year it looks like 13 or 14 of the 16 spots will be set.

Siouxfaninseattle
03-10-2018, 11:06 PM
Just from a who's in/who's out perspective. Usually there is some drama (some years quite a bit of drama) after the conference quarters. This year it looks like 13 or 14 of the 16 spots will be set.

Just what I'm talking about. 14 is still very iffy.

Fighting Sioux 23
03-10-2018, 11:07 PM
Just from a who's in/who's out perspective. Usually there is some drama (some years quite a bit of drama) after the conference quarters. This year it looks like 13 or 14 of the 16 spots will be set.

Well, there will be some drama for teams sitting around 12-15. Both Hockey East and WCHA are guaranteed to have championship games where at least one of the teams needs to win the title in order to make it, and the same could very well be true in the ECAC and NCHC.

Numbers
03-11-2018, 10:16 PM
Well....Fireworks!!!
Now we have 2 auto bids to accommodate, although NMU would be part of the top15 (maybe) if they win next Saturday.

Saturday night:
Omaha v NoDak game starting OT as I write this:
#1s: SCSU, NoDame, Cornell, OSU
#2s: Mankato, Denver, Northeastern, Duluth
#3s: Providence, Michigan, Clarkson, Penn State
#4s: Minnesota, NoDak, WCHA Champ, AHA Champ
(Note I am using Prov or NE as the NE Champ here).

Basically, we still have this:
Sioux Falls: OSU v NoDak, Mankato v Michigan
Allentown: NoDame v WCHA; Denver v Penn State
Worcester: SCSU v AHA; Northeastern v Clarkson
Bridgeport: Cornell v Minnesota; Duluth v Providence
And, I am using NoDame at Allentown, even though OSU is closer, because NoDame is higher ranked, and deserves to avoid NoDak on SF ice.

Curiosities:
NoDak can only get above Minn with 2 wins. That means that, without 2 wins by NoDak, a win by the BC/BU winner on Saturday knocks NoDak out of the field. Or, 2 wins by Harvard or Union.
Also, with no calculations, Denver's only hope at a #1 is to win twice, and OSU lose. Otherwise, it's 2 B10 teams at #1s.




ALERT:::
Because NCHC has a consolation game, the following is possible:
UMD loses twice, which drops their RPI below Minnesota.
Upset in ECAC
BC/BU wins HE....
Yields UMD out.

J.D.
03-11-2018, 10:27 PM
I imagine the only at large chance BC has now is winning Friday and having North Dakota go 0-2?

Numbers
03-11-2018, 10:30 PM
I imagine the only at large chance BC has now is winning Friday and having North Dakota go 0-2?

It looks like that's correct, although it also works if NoDak ties the conso game.