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ticapnews
03-16-2018, 10:25 PM
SCSU is #1 overall.
Notre Dame and Cornell have clinched 1 seeds. The final 1 seed is between Ohio State and Denver. Denver now passes OSU in 9% of scenarios.

https://collegehockeyranked.com/forecast/pwrtournament/

Numbers
03-16-2018, 10:29 PM
Again, in order:
1- UMD lose: Minnesota is in, BC is out. UMD tie, UMD is in, and BC is out. UMD win, UMD is in.
2- Princeton win: Princeton is in, and UND/BC are out. Clarkson win: UMD/Minn is in.
3- BU wins: BU in, and either UND/BC are out (if not already), or UMD/Minn is out. Prov/NE wins: UMD/Minn is in (if not already) or UND/BC are still alive.
In the event that UND/BC are still alive at this point, revert to 1. A UND w/t there puts UND in and BC out.
4- If the last spot is yet to be decided, then NMU=BC and MTU=UND

Numbers
03-16-2018, 10:39 PM
One further comment:
Tomorrow afternoon's UND v UMD game, the NCHC conso game, has A LOT of meaning. I'm not sure I can remember a year where it was BOTH teams with huge motivation to win that one.

Should be good for the fans who go this way.

Fighting Sioux 23
03-16-2018, 10:44 PM
One further comment:
Tomorrow afternoon's UND v UMD game, the NCHC conso game, has A LOT of meaning. I'm not sure I can remember a year where it was BOTH teams with huge motivation to win that one.

Should be good for the fans who go this way.

Actually, both teams should meet before hand. A draw is the most-beneficial result. Minnesota Duluth clinches a spot, and North Dakota doesn't have to worry about the WCHA Final. We could have a repeat of the 1986 World Cup...both teams just passing it back to each other in the neutral zone for 65 minutes. :p:D:D

ticapnews
03-16-2018, 10:46 PM
Actually, both teams should meet before hand. A draw is the most-beneficial result. Minnesota Duluth clinches a spot, and North Dakota doesn't have to worry about the WCHA Final. We could have a repeat of the 1986 World Cup...both teams just passing it back to each other in the neutral zone for 65 minutes. :p:D:D

1982 World Cup ;) West Germany vs Austria

Fighting Sioux 23
03-16-2018, 10:50 PM
1982 World Cup ;) West Germany vs Austria

****...so close. I knew it was West Germany and another country that spoke German...but I thought it was Belgium.

ticapnews
03-16-2018, 10:51 PM
Providence just tied the Hockey East semifinal with 1:51 remaining in regulation. This could be a while. BU is hoping for multiple overtimes. BC and North Dakota aren't.

joecct
03-16-2018, 11:21 PM
****...so close. I knew it was West Germany and another country that spoke German...but I thought it was Belgium.

Belgium doesn't speak German - unless they're being overrun.

Fighting Sioux 23
03-16-2018, 11:22 PM
Belgium doesn't speak German - unless they're being overrun.

German is an official language in Belgium.

ticapnews
03-16-2018, 11:28 PM
Correct me if I'm wrong, but this seems to be solid:

St Cloud vs RMU/AFA
ND/OSU winner vs NMU/MTU winner in Allentown
Penn State the 3 Allentown
Notre Dame and Cornell 1 seeds
Mankato and Providence 2 seeds
Clarkson and Northeastern 3 seeds

Numbers
03-16-2018, 11:33 PM
Correct me if I'm wrong, but this seems to be solid:

St Cloud vs RMU/AFA
ND/OSU winner vs NMU/MTU winner in Allentown
Penn State the 3 Allentown
Notre Dame and Cornell 1 seeds
Mankato and Providence 2 seeds
Clarkson and Northeastern 3 seeds

Clarkson can still go to a #2 seed

SCSU - #1 overall and will play the RMU/AFA winner
Cornell - #2 or 3 overall and will play in W'Cester or B'port
NoDame - #2 or #4 overall
OSU/Den - 4, 5, or 6....
B10 winner will play in Allentown, but might get Princeton if PU makes it, because they can't play Cornell, and you might have BU or BC in as the other #4.
Last #1 - NoDame, or Den, will play in the far east.

#1/2s: OSU, Den
#2s: Mankato, Providence
2/3: Clarkson, Mich, PSU, NE
2/3/4: UMD
3/4: Minn
#4s: UND, BC and the autobids

ticapnews
03-16-2018, 11:47 PM
I read the wrong line for Clarkson. They're a 3 seed if they lose, a 2 seed if they win.

Yeah, Princeton could go to Allentown...bonus for the NCAA is that it's only 90 miles so the Tigers wouldn't have to fly.

Numbers
03-16-2018, 11:51 PM
And, actually, in respect to Jim Dahl....

I can't find a way to get UMD as high as he does, if they lose tomorrow. They keep coming out 13th, no matter what I try.

Never mind. There is the "tie" possibility, which means 0 wins.

klbaum1077
03-16-2018, 11:55 PM
Go BU or Princeton keep North Dakota out i dont want to drive to Sioux Falls.

JimDahl
03-17-2018, 12:36 AM
And, actually, in respect to Jim Dahl....

I can't find a way to get UMD as high as he does, if they lose tomorrow. They keep coming out 13th, no matter what I try.

Never mind. There is the "tie" possibility, which means 0 wins.

Yep, I throw that infernal tie in with a loss as 0 wins. All my record keeping is in big matrices by number of wins and I've never felt it worth rewriting to accommodate this weird scenario.

Anyway, here's what I came up with on what each team needs. Unlike the forecast itself, this was a manual exercise quite prone to error, so please point out any mistakes!

https://blog.collegehockeyranked.com/2018/03/17/who-can-make-the-ncaas-saturday-morning-outlook/

ticapnews
03-17-2018, 07:46 AM
The NCHC nightmare scenario.
http://pwp.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/?uniq=pwp_5aacc93be4a44

purpleinnebraska
03-17-2018, 08:36 AM
The NCHC nightmare scenario.
http://pwp.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/?uniq=pwp_5aacc93be4a44

For perhaps the first time in the history of sports, both teams in a consolation game may come out motivated.

Numbers
03-17-2018, 08:52 AM
The NCHC nightmare scenario.
http://pwp.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/?uniq=pwp_5aacc93be4a44

Following Jim, above, that actually goes like this:
UND wins
BU wins
Princeton win
(The ECAC and HE results narrow the window to one more berth)
(UND winning puts Minnesota in the drivers seat over UMD)
And, one of the following comes in:
SCSU
OSU
RMU
NMU
win, which puts UMTC ahead of UMD in RPI.

That is actually not far fetched at all. Basically, 3 games - NCHC conso, ECAC and HE, or a 1/8 chance, and then, if that chance comes in, 15/16 chance because of all the possibilities after that.

SCSU Euro
03-17-2018, 02:01 PM
The NCHC nightmare scenario.
http://pwp.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/?uniq=pwp_5aacc93be4a44

As a fan of one of the NCHC teams already in this is our dream scenario... tough conference knocks each other around and eliminates each other

Numbers
03-17-2018, 02:12 PM
Lacking a way to compare after today's games, but the current KRACH is interesting:
Top 5 as in PWR. Mankato alone at 6. Minnesota higher (9), but that's the worst discrepancy, and surely is a result of losing 4 straight to PSU.
It would be NOrtheastern and NoDak on the bubble there, with BC no chance, really.
But a very good chance it would give the same field.