Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

[chickod]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

Tonight's attendance:

NU - 1,228
PC - 1,876
MC - 2,549 (sellout)
UVM - 3,110

I'm not sure if any of the schools are on break.

Break or no...just pathetic.

[northeastern]

Tonight's attendance:

NU - 1,228
PC - 1,876
MC - 2,549 (sellout)
UVM - 3,110

I'm not sure if any of the schools are on break.

NU is on Spring break. Not sure if its all the schools.. but kids def on break.

[chickod]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

NU is on Spring break. Not sure if its all the schools.. but kids def on break.

So there are hardly any adult fans? (It's really more of a rhetorial question, because I can't blame people for staying home) There's only so much money that people will spend on endless "playoff" games. And the thing is, as long as they get SPONSORS to pay (because that's where the REAL revenue comes from), they'll play the game if ZERO people are in the stands. And I think that's sad.

EDIT: And as long as they get morons like me to fork over $59.95 they'll keep having the games too Did you ever try to "recall" an email from Outlook? That's how I feel right about now. I want my money back...

[northeastern]

EDIT: And as long as they get morons like me to fork over $59.95 they'll keep having the games too Did you ever try to "recall" an email from Outlook? That's how I feel right about now. I want my money back...

ha.. their feed not great as well.
Bertagna will meet with the Russian Ambassador to work on your refund.

[chickod]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

ha.. their feed not great as well.
Bertagna will meet with the Russian Ambassador to work on your refund.

And while we're on the topic...I usually plug the cable from my laptop into my big screen TV. Well, the "full screen" button on the Hockey East feed didn't work, so even when you selected a game as the "featured" game it only filled up less than half the screen. So I had to watch everything on my laptop. What a waste...

[Split-N]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

ha.. their feed not great as well...

That's something of an elegant understatement. Those of us who have been watching goNUxtream all season are spoiled rotten.

WRT to all of the empty seats: Yes, it was embarrassing, notwithstanding the fact that the undergrad spring break apparently started yesterday. I've been pounding on the administration to actively market NU hockey and hoops to the public for years but all I get for my efforts are quizzical stares. Let's remember, Matthews is literally steps from two different subway lines, which makes it easily accessible to anyone in the T footprint. And the ticket costs are a pittance compared to the B's and C's. A cheap and easy night out, especially if you have kids, and you don't even have to worry about parking.

[chickod]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

I've been pounding on the administration to actively market NU hockey and hoops to the public for years but all I get for my efforts are quizzical stares. Let's remember, Matthews is literally steps from two different subway lines, which makes it easily accessible to anyone in the T footprint. And the ticket costs are a pittance compared to the B's and C's. A cheap and easy night out, especially if you have kids, and you don't even have to worry about parking.

Perplexing, isn't it?

[GreenCat]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

Sorry. Cinderella story from the 8th seed is one thing. Not the 12th. What's the point of the regular season? How would you like it if your team finished say, fifth in the league and lost a series to a 2-18 team? (and don't say, "Well, that's the way it goes.") Or are you one of those "everyone gets a participation ribbon" people?

It's all about the money. Of course, the laugh is on them, at least at NU because the place was practically empty tonight. Good. If enough people don't buy into it maybe it will go away (doubtful). And I'm the biggest culprit, forking over $59.95 to watch these debacles...

I agree the bottom 2 should not make it. At large bids to the FF should continue since it is no easy job to win your league championship. Plus you.....

https://youtu.be/bg8lSyGavc4

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

Interesting times in Hockey East as we look to not only the league tourney, but also the NCAAs.

UML and BU look to have wrapped up NCAA bids, and ND and PC are trying to strengthen their positions. UVM, BC, and even NU have a shot at getting on the plus-side of the bubble without the auto-bid from the HE tourney title. Everyone else is "auto-bid or bust". That means as many as four teams could end their seasons this weekend.

While UML, BU, BC, and ND have the advantage of byes into the next round, PC, UVM, and NU have the advantage of the chance to chalk up two more wins to add to their NCAA-eligibility resumes. For ND and especially BC, playing those extra games might have been worth missing out on the bye - except, of course, winning is no guarantee. Healthy and rested also gives a better chance in the games ahead that you do play. Still, BC swapping seeds with PC might have been the best thing holistically for the league's NCAA chances.

---
On the first night of this year's HE playoffs, the only underdog in the league to score was UConn. In fact, CT put two in the net in the final 90 seconds, but the second was waved off after a long review (three men, one replay box) judged the play to be offside. That would have given a 3-2 result, with the final three goals (a 2-0 NU lead becoming a 3-2 NU final) scored without the CT goalie on the ice. Fun times.

PC, UVM, and NU all winning improves all of their PWR chances, even if NU hasn't moved yet.

---
NU not only needs their RPI to improve (which it does with the win), but also needs to find a way to flip about eight pairs to have a chance for an at-large bid. Even though they are one place behind BC in the PWR table, they are three pairs behind. NU losing the pair to Quinnipiac below them is the reason for the 3-way tie at 21st (38 pairs) - rather than NU 39, SLU 38, QU 37, NU drops one and QU rises one. It doesn't look like that pair will flip, since QU has a H2H point and is way ahead on COP. That puts NU in a deeper hole to start from. That said, they win the COP battle with the seven of the next ten teams above them, and are tied with an in-conference eighth, UVM. For the other two, AFA and UNO, there is no H2H record, so flipping the RPI flips the pair. So even from 21st place, NU's chances boil down to piling up RPI points, and hoping that other teams' losses above them will help NU gain in relative RPI. UVM dropping in relative COP to NU during the HE tourney would help, too.

---
In the reverse of the NU/QU situation, BC has an "extra" pair by virtue of their pair win over PC, 10 places above. That's why it's a three-pair gap, not one, between BC and NU. Rather than BC at 40 and NU at 39, BC wins an extra above and NU loses an extra below.

For the Eagles, all the pairs they need to flip to climb into the NCAAs are simply RPI comparisons. OSU's upset loss to MSU and UNO playing Denver (losing game one) can help, even while BC is idle. AFA and ND are also off, while UVM, SCSU, NoDak, and Wisco all won their weekend opener, making that climb a little steeper.

---
UVM's win pulls them beyond the losses of OSU and UNO and into the 16 slot. With AFA at 17 and a WCHA auto-bid to consider, that's still not "in" just yet, but it is at least on th upper side of the bubble.

---
Like BC, Notre Dame is idle. Also like BC, the Irish have the "extra" pair above them from PC, which pulls them up even with the team above in the PWR, in their case, NoDak. At the moment, ND looks to be the last at-large in the tourney, but that 14th position is vulnerable to any team (outside of one AHA and one WCHA) earning their way in via auto-bid. That positioning is also highly volatile. The RPI gap between 11 (PSU: .5513) and 20 (BC: .5345) is only 168 points - and ND is right in the thick of it (.5442). We saw that, around Beanpot time, BU and Harvard were tied in RPI, but in short order, each moved about a hundred points in opposite directions. Given how close all of those 10 teams are, and that we have a couple of weekends of end-of-season, highly-purposeful hockey on tap, it's extremely unlikely that what we're looking at now will be the final arrangement.

---
Providence still has a realistic shot at moving up into the 2nd tier, perhaps leaving HE with three 2nds if BU and UML stay in the 5-8 range as well. The loss of the BC and ND pairs is what pulls PC down from 51 pairs - and 9th place in PWR between Union and Cornell - to 49 and into a tie at 10th w/ PSU. What PC needs to get those pairs "back" and restore order in the table, is not RPI - which PC already leads - but COP. Since the HE playoffs are essentially nothing but common opponents for all three teams (other than H2H games), the thin margins in COP that sway the pairs for BC and ND could swing back to PC.

Further, in the case of ND and PC, if PC wins another UMA game, next weekend would have PC and ND meet directly in South Bend. Being that it's the playoffs, that series can't split, so someone will gain an advantage - and stop the other's season at least until the NCAAs are laid out, if not for good. If PC were to win that series 2-1, they would take the PWR pair, even if COP stayed as is, in ND's favor. (COP doesn't include games H2H as teams don't play themselves. Example: ND plays PC, but PC doesn't play itself, meaning that PC is not a common opponent for those two teams, nor is ND for the reciprocal reason.) A 2-1 PC series win would level H2H at 2-2-1, making H2H a wash, leaving COP and RPI. That means RPI, since it's the tie-breaker. PC already wins RPI and wouldn't fall behind if they won the series.

PC could possibly move on to play BC H2H, either in the semis - if BC wins and either UML or BU (but not both) loses in the quarters - or in the final if they are the last two standing. If BC loses in their quarters and PC makes the Garden, that might swing COP in PC's favor (adding four wins to BC's two losses), but I haven't done the math (see rant below).

Picking up a single pair (like ND or BC) would pull PC up into a tie at 9 with Cornell, but PC already has the pair with Cornell, so would be slotted 9th. They would need two more pairs (three total) to go their way (relative to Union) to move up to 8th, but that could also include PC swapping the pair with Union (PC +1, Union -1) and PC winning the resulting tie at 51 pairs. The four teams immediately above PC (UML, BU, Union, Cornell) are all on Byes this week, so PC will have to look to solidify their hold on 10 this weekend and use next weekend's results to shoot for the 2nd tier.

---
UML and BU are about as tied as two teams could be. They split H2H. They tied in league points. They are even in COP. They are tied in RPI to the 4th digit. But UML wins the pair. Here's why: A close look at RPI shows UML ahead by a rounding factor in the 5th digit.

In the raw RPI, UML is 20 points up: .5577 to BU's .5557. Neither had adjustments from beating very weak opponents. UML had a Quality Win Bonus of .0036 while BU's QWB was .0055 - or 19 points more. Adding UML's numbers gives .5613, but adding BU's 20-pt deficit to their 19-point advantage also gives them .5613, instead of the apparent .5612. BU's score is clearly rounding up, something like .55574 + .00554 = .56128 = .5613. This pair will be subject to butterfly effects until one starts losing - unless they both do.

---
[rant]

The main reason I haven't "done the math" is that the current COP calculus is not a simple record comparison. They do the mathematically-silly adding of winning percentages (we're all taught early on in school that adding ratios is bad math). That means one has to look at prior results and see how a win or loss (no HE playoff ties) changes that slice of the winning percentage, then add that back in. Not that that's hard, more that I rebel against the stupidity.

For example, let's look at PC's COP. I do know that, since PC already swept UMA, beating them again has no - literally zero - impact on their COP record with ND and BC. PC has already included a 1.000 record vs UMA in those COP totals. Whether that's 2-0-0, 3-0-0 or 4-0-0, it's all 1.000. So, since PC won their first UMA game (giving them 1.000 out of the gate) last weekend, winning the next two, and possibly another tonight mean absolutely nothing positive in regards to PC's COP with BC and ND. All they are doing is staving off a loss (or tie last Saturday) that would drop the record from 1.000. PC winning three straight additional games against a team that ND could only split with? (ND has the same record against UMA that they do against BC, FWIW.) No impact.

OK. I get that beating up on the bottom-feeders is why they instituted this silliness in the first place. However, let's look at another scenario.

What if PC beats UMA and ND to face top-seed and QF-winning UML in the semis at the Garden? PC also already swept UML. So if they manage to beat the league's top team, and the nation's 4/6 ranked team (poll/PWR), for a remarkable THIRD time they get NO benefit from it in COP.

However, if they were to beat BU to change their H2H record from 0-1-1 to 1-1-1, they go from .250 (1 of 4 points) to .500 - adding .250 to COP. If they face BC and move from 0-2-0 to 1-2-0, they go from .000 to .333 - all of that .333 going into COP - but not into the COP with BC.

PC went 0-1-1 (.250) against ND two weeks ago. If they meet and PC wins 2-0-0, they move to .625 (2-1-1), a COP gain of .375. If PC wins 2-1, a 2-2-1 (.500) record adds .250 to COP - but not vs. ND's COP.

At this point, all league teams are common opponents with other league teams (other than H2H), but not all of them count in your COP calculation - whether a win against the top seed or the bottom.

Sure. Makes total sense.

If you suck at math...

[/rant]

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

After the weekend, let's see what changed from Friday:

NU held steady at 38 pairs, but their RPI moved up from .5290 to .5317. UNO's drop put them only 11 RPI points ahead of NU, which is reachable just with SOS changes (see UML and BU).

UNO's drop also puts them behind BC and SCSU (who dropped three pairs to UVM, AFA and OSU), even though BC's RPI did not move from .5345. UNO lost pairs to both OSU and BC, putting the Eagles at t-18th with 42 pairs. That result means that NU is now four pairs behind BC/SCSU. BC is now only two pairs behind the 16 slot. With RPIs at .5371 (SCSU), .5377 (OSU), and .5388 (AFA) so close together, it is possible that BC could suddenly pass all three in a burst - or pass none at all.

With AFA now at 16, they wouldn't be "taking" a spot from someone else if they also earned their conference's auto-bid. If AFA stayed pegged at 16, then only the 15th spot would be in jeopardy from the WCHA winner, who is below 16 - whoever that ends up being. 14 -11 would, of course, still be vulnerable to other auto-bids bubbling up from the teams below 16.

Speaking of 15, UVM now holds that position. UVM's RPI rose from .5391 to .5406, but the pair they gained was more a matter of SCSU dropping RPI to .5371. In order to make the tourney, UVM is going to have to move up, so as to not be eliminated by the WCHA auto-bid (or AHA/WCHA bids, if AFA drops).

Notre Dame is still on the bottom side of a tie for 13th, but now with Wisco, not NoDak. The RPI margin for that tandem is now just three points. Flipping that pair would then move them up into a tie for 11th with PC and NoDak, assuming those two held steady.

Of course, PC and ND play each other for at least two this weekend, so those numbers can't hold steady. At the same time, UVM and BC face off, and Wisco and OSU meet. Wisconsin will have no one to look to but themselves as far as getting past other bubble teams, since they had PSU this past weekend and OSU coming up. If you want to make the tourney, however you got this far, you just needed to take out your opposition yourself head-to-head. Survive and Advance for the Badgers, and any one else in these pairings - except maybe Providence, who might have enough room to get in even with a QF series loss.

Even though PC won a pair of games, tey lost a PWR pair to PSU. PC's RPI barely moved (now .5552) with the win over lowly UMA. Penn State jumped from .5513 to .5554 with the Saturday win over Wisco to answer for the Friday defeat.

Idle UML and BU added slightly to their RPIs with UML adding 5 points and BU 2. (ND had also added 11 points: .5442 > .5453 .) Just above them, WMU and Minn drew closer by flipping their Friday results (WMU W & MN L > WMU L & MN W).

UNH's victories in games 2 and 3 at MC changed the matchups for next week's QFs. By being the only survivor out of the bottom of the bracket, #10 UNH moves on to face top seed UML. As the lowest of the middle bracket, 8-seed NU would have expected to face #1 UML themselves if games were played on paper, but now faces 2-seed BU. As expected - and discussed in an earlier post - 4(ND) hosts 5(PC) and 3(BC) hosts 6(UVM).

UML had split with NU, but swept new foe UNH. BU had been swept by assumed opponent MC, but now meets NU, a team they went 1-0-1 against. BU and NU did not meet in the Beanpot this year, each facing BC and Harvard in one order or the other - each beating BC and losing to the Crimson. UNH is much further down the SOS chart than NU (or MC), so if BU and UML match records this weekend, the difference in opponent may swing that pair back to the Terriers.

[tape]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

WRT to all of the empty seats: Yes, it was embarrassing, notwithstanding the fact that the undergrad spring break apparently started yesterday. I've been pounding on the administration to actively market NU hockey and hoops to the public for years but all I get for my efforts are quizzical stares. Let's remember, Matthews is literally steps from two different subway lines, which makes it easily accessible to anyone in the T footprint. And the ticket costs are a pittance compared to the B's and C's. A cheap and easy night out, especially if you have kids, and you don't even have to worry about parking.

I have Lowell season tickets but live in Boston. I end up going to Matthews at least a couple of times a year when the combo of Lowell being off/out of town all weekend and nothing else going on pops up, or sometimes the Lowell road game. Super easy to get to, cheap, great venue. It's been a while since I went to a game that was well-attended, which is sad because the atmosphere there is great when they can actually get a reasonably full house. Still, I'll be in for a ticket, chicken tenders and a soda for a few bucks under $30; can't beat that.

[chickod]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

Bump to move Asian spam off first page.

[blazer777]

Bump

[blazer777]

Bump to move Asian spam off first page.

..

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

Series to watch this weekend:

Of course, the winners of each series in HE get to move on to the Garden and have a shot at the league title, so every series is important. However, some have more import than others when it comes to the national tourney, whether in-conference or out.

The biggest series in HE for the NCAAs is probably UVM-BC. Right now, both of the teams are in reach of the bubble, but would be out. UVM is 15th, but would get taken out by auto-bids and be the last team to be eliminated from the tourney. They need to find a way to climb, but just a little to have a shot (barring a barrage of auto-bid-only teams making the NCAAs). BC, on the other hand, is cleanly out unless they move up and may need some of the teams ahead of them to drop - while ceding pairs to BC. I don't see how the loser of this series can absorb 2 losses and make the tourney. Hell, UVM is in the better position, might win two and still need wins next week to make it.

PC and ND is also a key series, but PC might be able to lose the series and survive to make the NCAAs. ND is one rank above UVM, so is the last team in at this point. Moving up would better protect them from extra auto-bids coming in at 14 thru 11, but they don't have to move up. What they do have to do is not fall, which losing would likely make them do.

The UML and BU series matter to the opponents, for sure. UNH's only chance is the auto-bid. NU has a slim chance to move up, and may need the four wins that give them the auto-bid to make the tourney on their own (or maybe not even then). UML and BU look to be good to make the tourney - unless we auto-bid all the way up to the 3rd tier - but their chances of staying in the top half of the bracket, which might also better protect their chances to stay East, are best served by not losing two in the QFs. The difference in opponent strength (NU higher than UNH) might flip this pair on RPI even with matching results, but they are so close that they also might swing positions back and forth based on butterfly effects in opponents' and opponents'-opponents' results as the night and weekend progress.

Outside HE, Wisco (current 13t / 47 pairs) and OSU (17/43) play a set. Also factoring in is that 11t/48 NoDak plays 18t/42 SCSU. All of the ranked teams in ECAC are playing unranked foes this weekend but, if they all advance, next weekend could be as pivotal for NCAA seeding as the next weekend in HE could be (6 of 8 remaining HE teams are ranked). Odds are also good that NCHC will have four ranked teams playing next weekend, as - on paper - the highest three (all top 10) should move on, and the other series has two ranked teams (NoDak/SCSU) matching up. Western beating Omaha would also help in the BC/NU neck of the woods.

re: UW/OSU: I don't know what the B1G is doing next weekend, and whether either of these could have games then, or if the loser is done until, perhaps, NCAA time. If the loser is waiting for the brackets, this is a huge deal as both teams are right around the bubble. UW is tied with ND and holds that pair by about three RPI points (.5456 to .5453), so takes the 13th seed with ND 14th. ND could flip that pair simply by matching results with UW, but facing a more powerful opponent (PC is about .0175 RPI ahead of OSU). 48 pairs is where PC and NoDak currently are in their tie at 11. ND has the PC pair, so they would resolve the tie on RPI. Current RPI would go PC/NoDak/ND, but that's all flexible, esp w/ NoDak's .5473 only being 20 points ahead of ND. OSU could pass AFA and UVM by having better results, beat UW themselves and hope for help from PC to knock ND down to within reach. SCSU could help bring NoDak down to OSU's reach by winning, but that might also have them make up the six points they are behind OSU. Lots to watch there.

For NoDak/SCSU, NoDak is so close to Wisco and ND that they would need to at least match results to stay ahead. SCSU is about the same as OSU as far as impact on SOS, so NoDak and UW might move similarly (extended SOS teams pending) with similar results. Not sure if ND could make up the 20 points on NoDak with a matching result just because of the strength of PC. I could see a very interesting but counter-intuitive situation where PC wins the series 2-1, but NoDak gets swept and UW loses either 2-0 or 2-1 to OSU that could move ND up two pairs (taking NoDak and UW) to threaten PC (who already has those two pairs). The only thing that would keep ND from passing PC is, as we discussed in an earlier post, PC winning 2-1 would tie up the H2H, so PC's higher RPI would flip that pair. That would leave ND at 48 but ahead of all the other bubble teams discussed so far. PC would move up to 49, where Cornell sits, but PC has that pair, so would be 10 if nothing else changed.

Overall, the teams between 11t and 18t all play within that band this weekend with the exception of AFA, who is place-holding the AHA spot (if AFA doesn't win the title, the loss should drop them out of the table anyway, to be replaced by the AHA auto-bid). Half of those teams will climb and half will fall. If the upper teams win, they put some distance on the lower teams, but still need to move up on each other to avoid being trimmed by auto-bids. For teams at the bottom of this bubble, it provides an opportunity to gain on half of the teams around them. That is also NU's hope and curse in trying to move up. If they beat BU, they have the chance to move up on half these teams, but the other half are also moving up, closing the window on NU catching them by burning half of the games left for NU to do the catching. NU could conceivably pick up four or even five pairs if the lower teams (and AFA) lose, but the upper teams get just that much harder to catch.

Going back to where we started, UVM winning might not move them up if Wisco beats OSU and NoDak beats SCSU. However, if BC were to win the UVM series under those same conditions, they might jump not only SCSU and OSU, but also AFA and UVM. That still doesn't get them in the tourney, as they move up to UVM's current 15-and-out-by-auto-bid position. Whoever that might be in 15th, winning and surviving leaves them room to move up further next week.