We're one weekend deep (well okay, just two games) in the ECAC schedule and so it's time for me to put some numbers in a program and come to conclusions with far too little data for support. After all, most of the Ivies only have a couple games played and we're relying on a fake tie to keep everyone's KRACH real and finite. That said, here are some standings that we'll all laugh at in the future, probably starting next week.
Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 10^62.03 possibilities):
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. This early in the season, it is necessary to have the aforementioned hypothetical tie to keep all of the ratings finite and non-zero.
Unsurprisingly, the Ivy League teams that are undefeated are all slated for byes, and those that have yet to win a game are all down at the bottom. This will likely change soon enough, but at least I waited for the Ivies to play once to post these this year.
Rank and Points breakdown:
Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 10^62.03 possibilities):
- Dartmouth
- Union
- Yale
- Harvard
————— - Quinnipiac
- Clarkson
- SLU
- Colgate
————— - RPI
- Cornell
- Brown
- Princeton
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. This early in the season, it is necessary to have the aforementioned hypothetical tie to keep all of the ratings finite and non-zero.
Unsurprisingly, the Ivy League teams that are undefeated are all slated for byes, and those that have yet to win a game are all down at the bottom. This will likely change soon enough, but at least I waited for the Ivies to play once to post these this year.
Rank and Points breakdown:
Code:
| KRACH | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Da | 342.3 | 38.2 24.2 16.4 10.7 6.2 3.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 | 2.36 | 32.30 Un | 250.1 | 22.3 22.7 19.9 15.7 10.6 5.9 2.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 2.99 | 30.75 Ya | 243.9 | 16.4 19.3 19.8 17.8 13.4 8.4 4.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0 | 3.38 | 29.86 Ha | 240.3 | 15.8 18.9 19.6 18.1 13.8 8.8 4.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 3.43 | 29.74 Qu | 164.3 | 4.6 8.2 12.2 16.7 21.1 19.4 13.7 3.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 | 4.76 | 26.75 Ck | 123.9 | 1.4 3.4 6.1 10.4 16.8 24.3 26.6 8.4 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 | 5.76 | 24.43 SL | 121.6 | 1.3 3.1 5.8 10.0 16.3 24.1 27.5 8.9 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 | 5.82 | 24.28 Cg | 52.7 | 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.6 4.6 13.3 40.1 20.9 10.9 5.5 2.3 | 8.38 | 17.40 RP | 37.0 | 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.7 17.2 28.1 22.9 16.7 10.4 | 9.60 | 13.98 Cr | 26.3 | 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.6 9.1 19.0 24.1 24.6 21.3 | 10.24 | 12.28 Br | 24.6 | 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 7.5 16.7 23.0 26.2 25.1 | 10.40 | 11.83 Pr | 19.7 | 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 3.8 10.4 17.8 26.6 40.9 | 10.89 | 10.42 | KRACH | x 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 |AvgPts --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Da | 342.3 | 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.4 3.6 5.2 6.9 8.6 10.0 10.9 11.0 10.3 8.8 7.0 5.1 3.3 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 | 32.30 Un | 250.1 | 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.0 3.1 4.6 6.3 8.0 9.5 10.5 10.9 10.5 9.3 7.7 5.8 4.1 2.5 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 30.75 Ya | 243.9 | 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.1 3.1 4.5 6.1 7.7 9.1 10.1 10.5 10.2 9.3 7.8 6.1 4.3 2.9 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 29.86 Ha | 240.3 | 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.3 4.7 6.3 7.8 9.2 10.2 10.5 10.1 9.1 7.6 5.9 4.1 2.8 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 29.74 Qu | 164.3 | 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.3 3.4 4.8 6.3 7.9 9.1 9.9 10.2 9.8 8.8 7.4 5.8 4.3 2.9 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 | 26.75 Ck | 123.9 | 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.7 3.9 5.4 6.9 8.4 9.4 10.0 10.0 9.3 8.2 6.8 5.2 3.8 2.6 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 | 24.43 SL | 121.6 | 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.9 2.9 4.1 5.6 7.1 8.5 9.5 10.1 10.0 9.2 8.0 6.5 5.0 3.6 2.4 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 | 24.28 Cg | 52.7 | 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.7 4.0 5.5 7.2 8.7 9.8 10.3 10.2 9.3 8.1 6.6 5.0 3.5 2.4 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 | 17.40 RP | 37.0 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.9 4.4 6.3 8.1 9.7 10.7 11.1 10.4 9.2 7.6 5.8 4.2 2.7 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 | 13.98 Cr | 26.3 | 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.4 3.9 5.8 7.7 9.5 10.7 11.2 10.6 9.6 8.0 6.2 4.5 3.1 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 | 12.28 Br | 24.6 | 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 3.0 4.7 6.7 8.7 10.3 11.1 11.1 10.3 8.9 7.2 5.4 3.8 2.5 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 | 11.83 Pr | 19.7 | 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.4 5.5 7.6 9.7 11.1 11.6 11.2 9.9 8.3 6.4 4.6 3.0 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 | 10.42 Bold is each team's most likely outcome. 0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times. x means the outcome never occurred.
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