Fun With Numbers: Pairwise, KRACH, and Otherwise '16-'17

[TonyTheTiger20]

***HERE IS THIS YEAR'S PAIRWISE CALCULATOR: http://www.bcinterruption.com/boston...ngs-calculator***

***HERE IS THIS YEAR'S KRACH CALCULATOR: http://www.bcinterruption.com/boston...ach-calculator***

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An early, mostly useless look at the Pairwise:

http://i.imgur.com/4Dl6i9U.png

and KRACH:

http://i.imgur.com/ojpdW9v.png

As a side note, am I missing something with embedding images? Why can't I do it?

[bc6696]

Re: Fun With Numbers: Pairwise, KRACH, and Otherwise '16-'17

The SOS in the KRACH seems to be much more accurate than in the Pairwise

[Eeyore]

Re: Fun With Numbers: Pairwise, KRACH, and Otherwise '16-'17

The SOS in the KRACH seems to be much more accurate than in the Pairwise

Which is funny, since, as we discussed last year, what's listed as the "Strength of Schedule" element of KRACH really isn't.

[pokechecker]

Re: Fun With Numbers: Pairwise, KRACH, and Otherwise '16-'17

UND = SOS Pairwise=7 KRACH=24
Robert Morse = SOS Pairwise=3 KRACH=22


maybe a little early to put much into SOS

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Fun With Numbers: Pairwise, KRACH, and Otherwise '16-'17

KRACH is now error-free and includes all teams:

http://imgur.com/TseVZJG

I'll have the calculator up later this week if anyone wants to play around with it.

I think the Pairwise will be fully connected after this weekend. I'll have that calculator up next week if so.

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Fun With Numbers: Pairwise, KRACH, and Otherwise '16-'17

FYI BC would be 9th in KRACH had they beaten Maine.

(You will see me post this constantly throughout the course of the year as it will take me years to get over that garbage loss)

[ARM]

Re: Fun With Numbers: Pairwise, KRACH, and Otherwise '16-'17

Sweeping Sacred Heart is more impressive than sweeping Providence? Nice.

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Fun With Numbers: Pairwise, KRACH, and Otherwise '16-'17

Sweeping Sacred Heart is more impressive than sweeping Providence? Nice.

Well, consider that with such a small sample size, the algorithm can only do so much.

Providence at least has some games played, and they're pretty awful, so KRACH knows that beating PC is pretty unimpressive.

With Sacred Heart, though, SHU hasn't played any other D1 games other than the ones it just had against Brown. Ditto with the Bears against SHU. So the algorithm is forced to assume Sacred Heart and Brown are average teams until it gets more evidence to say otherwise.

That's why before this weekend, Brown had a rating of 100 -- exactly average -- until it went 2-0 against Sacred Heart. Sacred Heart's was the same but I don't list them in the ratings. So, Brown has a 2-0 record against a team that was rated 100, and Sacred Heart has an 0-2 record against a team that was rated 100. That's why their ratings are what they are now that those games have been played.

This is why KRACH and PWR are to be taken with a grain of salt this early in the season -- the numbers can get wonky until there's a larger sample size to "learn" from.

Although PWR as we know stays wonky no matter what the sample size

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Fun With Numbers: Pairwise, KRACH, and Otherwise '16-'17

With the exception of Brown, the Pairwise is now fully connected. Brown isn't yet because they played Sacred Heart, who played Holy Cross -- and Holy Cross has only played one D1/2 opponent (Sacred Heart).

However, here is the Pairwise if you treat Brown's wins over Sacred Heart as "bad wins":

http://i.imgur.com/DDoGIJL.png

Why the HELL can I not post images??

PS BC would be 6th had they beaten Maine 🙃

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Fun With Numbers: Pairwise, KRACH, and Otherwise '16-'17

Pairwise calculator is go:

http://www.bcinterruption.com/boston...ngs-calculator

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Fun With Numbers: Pairwise, KRACH, and Otherwise '16-'17

KRACH calculator is now live as well:

http://www.bcinterruption.com/boston...ach-calculator

[joecct]

Pairwise calculator is go:

http://www.bcinterruption.com/boston...ngs-calculator

Do all the D2's and Holy Cross need to be included? In theory they're eligible (if they played enough qualifying games).

I ask because Post is included.

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Fun With Numbers: Pairwise, KRACH, and Otherwise '16-'17

Do all the D2's and Holy Cross need to be included? In theory they're eligible (if they played enough qualifying games).

I ask because Post is included.

I don't have Post in my sheets yet, I'll do it eventually, but their effect is going to be minimal. They haven't played any D2/D1 games yet.

USCHO never included the D2s/D1 independents in the PWR in the past, so I'm not sure why they're suddenly including Post. They should be included in the RPI and in KRACH calculations, but should NOT be included in the PWR, because they will not be eligible for the tournament (they won't have played the required number of games).

[joecct]

Re: Fun With Numbers: Pairwise, KRACH, and Otherwise '16-'17

I don't have Post in my sheets yet, I'll do it eventually, but their effect is going to be minimal. They haven't played any D2/D1 games yet.

USCHO never included the D2s/D1 independents in the PWR in the past, so I'm not sure why they're suddenly including Post. They should be included in the RPI and in KRACH calculations, but should NOT be included in the PWR, because they will not be eligible for the tournament (they won't have played the required number of games).

But could imagine the cows if you get a conference of
Holy Cross
Sacred Heart
St. Anselm
St. Michaels
Franklin Pierce
Post

6 teams makes an AQ. They'd get killed in round 1 of the tournament, but they'd be in it.

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Fun With Numbers: Pairwise, KRACH, and Otherwise '16-'17

But could imagine the cows if you get a conference of
Holy Cross
Sacred Heart
St. Anselm
St. Michaels
Franklin Pierce
Post

6 teams makes an AQ. They'd get killed in round 1 of the tournament, but they'd be in it.

Oh, I know... haha