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SteveO
03-19-2017, 01:51 PM
Since 2008 here are the stats for #1 seeds according to proximity to home:

Overall since 2008:

Teams playing in-state are 29-16 (.644)
Teams traveling out of state by bus are 27-20 (.574)
Teams flying are 40-60 (.400)

1 seeds are 11-1 in state, 17-3 by bus, 7-13 by flight, 35-17 overall (.673)
2 seeds are 9-9 in state, 1-3 by bus, 11-13 by flight, 21-25 overall (.457)
3 seeds are 4-4 in state, 9-10 by bus, 6-15 by flight, 19-29 overall (.396)
4 seeds are 5-2 in state, 0-4 by bus, 16-19 by flight, 21-25 overall (.457)

The big takeaway from these numbers is that if a #1 seed is playing close to home, you should pick them to win their regional. #1 seeds either playing in their home state or nearby are dominant in the tournament, with a 28-4 record since 2008. Once you put 1 seeds on a plane, they don't fare any better than anyone else, with a winning percentage of .350 -- actually worse than the winning percentage of #2 and #4 seeds that fly to their regionals. - Courtesy of SB Nation

Koho
03-19-2017, 02:17 PM
Since 2008 here are the stats for #1 seeds according to proximity to home:

Overall since 2008:

Teams playing in-state are 29-16 (.644)
Teams traveling out of state by bus are 27-20 (.574)
Teams flying are 40-60 (.400)

1 seeds are 11-1 in state, 17-3 by bus, 7-13 by flight, 35-17 overall (.673)
2 seeds are 9-9 in state, 1-3 by bus, 11-13 by flight, 21-25 overall (.457)
3 seeds are 4-4 in state, 9-10 by bus, 6-15 by flight, 19-29 overall (.396)
4 seeds are 5-2 in state, 0-4 by bus, 16-19 by flight, 21-25 overall (.457)

The big takeaway from these numbers is that if a #1 seed is playing close to home, you should pick them to win their regional. #1 seeds either playing in their home state or nearby are dominant in the tournament, with a 28-4 record since 2008. Once you put 1 seeds on a plane, they don't fare any better than anyone else, with a winning percentage of .350 -- actually worse than the winning percentage of #2 and #4 seeds that fly to their regionals. - Courtesy of SB Nation

So can the Gophers move to Manchester today so they have a week to feel like they are at home?

And do you have stats just for the first round of the tourney?

SteveO
03-20-2017, 12:37 AM
Manchester is a day trip from South Bend (14 hours), whereas it's a flight or a two day trip from Mpls. But I don't think fanbase attendance will be a factor in the first round.

The Gophers match up well with ND. I can see a low scoring, defensive game and a goalie duel between Schierhorn and Cal Peterson who have both been very good in net down the stretch.

If they get by ND, and assuming UML defeats Cornell (Go Big Red!), the Gophers will need their very best performance plus some puck luck to beat UML, who are 11-1 in their last 12, won a HE regular season and conference title, and they'll have a lot of fans there. UMass-Lowell as a #5 really did well on the regional selection, it's almost like a home game for them.

5mn_Major
03-20-2017, 06:00 AM
Manchester is a day trip from South Bend (14 hours), whereas it's a flight or a two day trip from Mpls. But I don't think fanbase attendance will be a factor in the first round.

The Gophers match up well with ND. I can see a low scoring, defensive game and a goalie duel between Schierhorn and Cal Peterson who have both been very good in net down the stretch.

If they get by ND, and assuming UML defeats Cornell (Go Big Red!), the Gophers will need their very best performance plus some puck luck to beat UML, who are 11-1 in their last 12, won a HE regular season and conference title, and they'll have a lot of fans there. UMass-Lowell as a #5 really did well on the regional selection, it's almost like a home game for them.

Yeah, looking at our roster...we should be able to get by ND. But then again, we're a 1 seed vs. a 4 and so that's not saying too much.

I have yet to see an analyst pick us to come out of this regional. And there are a handful of intangibles working against us, including it being an away game for us and their hot streak vs. our stumbles down the stretch. If we can regain our early second half swagger we'll be in decent shape...if not, its just not going to happen - it should be that close. In any case, I can't imagine its a lopsided game.

bottomdweller
03-20-2017, 07:08 AM
Not sure why New England continues to get two regionals. With just six teams coming from the east, its just much more likely they will likely they will not be crossing the country. OK...I know why.

Last year they didn't. It was Albany and either Worcester or Bridgeport. And no one considers Bridgeport Connecticut to be a part of New England.

SteveO
03-20-2017, 07:17 AM
Yeah, looking at our roster...we should be able to get by ND. But then again, we're a 1 seed vs. a 4 and so that's not saying too much.

I have yet to see an analyst pick us to come out of this regional. And there are a handful of intangibles working against us, including it being an away game for us and their hot streak vs. our stumbles down the stretch. If we can regain our early second half swagger we'll be in decent shape...if not, its just not going to happen - it should be that close. In any case, I can't imagine its a lopsided game.

Those "stumbles" are a concern. Normally you want to be carrying some momentum into the postseason. We're 3-3-1 in our last 7, avg. less than 3 goals/game. In the same amount of games before that in Feb., we were avg. 5 goals/game.

Part of that is 3rd line scoring was basically shut down due to Szmatula's injury. But the 2nd line has been snake bit as well. Bristedt has 1 goal in the last 11 games and Vinni has only 3 goals over the last 7. The Gophers second half success has been defined by their scoring depth and we've lost some of that lately. Fortunately, Schierhorn has been very good. Like you said, if we get that "swagger" back, I think we've got a good shot at a FF berth.

pgb-ohio
03-20-2017, 07:36 AM
Last year they didn't. It was Albany and either Worcester or Bridgeport. And no one considers Bridgeport Connecticut to be a part of New England.True, but disingenuous. Also unnecessarily disingenuous. I'll explain.

5MM's point was that having two regionals in the Northeast States creates a high probability of an easy car trip for fans of the Northeast schools. Life is never 100% fair, but that is an advantage. Have the integrity to acknowledge that. The fact that Bridgeport locals, with their NYC orientation, might be disinclined to root for New England schools is all but irrelevant. Few local neutrals attend the regionals. The few that do aren't going make much noise.

Further, you don't even need that argument. If you want to justify the Northeast Regionals, just point out two things:

1. Because of the proximity of so many fanbases, those regionals actually draw some fans. Solvency is a good thing.
2. To get a regional, you have to bid for a regional. Don't like the status quo? Submit a bid.

This is a small glimpse of a conversation that's be going on for years on USCHO. Meaning the debate pitting Tournament Atmosphere vs. Truly Neutral Sites. Personally I'm deeply disappointed by the status quo. But dropping the modestly successful sites for more empty buildings is not the answer.

Jaws
03-20-2017, 10:17 AM
It is his incessant attempts to use a larger vocabulary to sound smart. Yet he misuses the word about a third of the time and ends up sounding worse than if he had stuck with a simpler vocabulary. Seems like a decent guy who has some decent observations, but his misuse of words makes him almost UN-listenable at times.

Thank you! I knew I wasn't the only one. Winning a Stanley cup does not qualify you to be a tv analyst.

Patman
03-20-2017, 10:39 AM
True, but disingenuous. Also unnecessarily disingenuous. I'll explain.

5MM's point was that having two regionals in the Northeast States creates a high probability of an easy car trip for fans of the Northeast schools. Life is never 100% fair, but that is an advantage. Have the integrity to acknowledge that. The fact that Bridgeport locals, with their NYC orientation, might be disinclined to root for New England schools is all but irrelevant. Few local neutrals attend the regionals. The few that do aren't going make much noise.

Further, you don't even need that argument. If you want to justify the Northeast Regionals, just point out two things:

1. Because of the proximity of so many fanbases, those regionals actually draw some fans. Solvency is a good thing.
2. To get a regional, you have to bid for a regional. Don't like the status quo? Submit a bid.

This is a small glimpse of a conversation that's be going on for years on USCHO. Meaning the debate pitting Tournament Atmosphere vs. Truly Neutral Sites. Personally I'm deeply disappointed by the status quo. But dropping the modestly successful sites for more empty buildings is not the answer.

Frankly for all the years where western schools have gotten home ice... michigan, Michigan state, Minnesota, etc.

D2D
03-20-2017, 01:40 PM
If they get by ND, and assuming UML defeats Cornell (Go Big Red!), the Gophers will need their very best performance plus some puck luck to beat UML, who are 11-1 in their last 12, won a HE regular season and conference title, and they'll have a lot of fans there. UMass-Lowell as a #5 really did well on the regional selection, it's almost like a home game for them.
I watched the last half of the BC/Lowell game on Saturday night and thought Lowell looked really good. So did BC toward the end of the game, but they were playing desperate, not wanting their season to end. But UML was very impressive, and i agree with your call that "the Gophers will need their very best performance plus some puck luck to beat UML". Of course the Gophs can't afford to look past Notre Dame as they were very good down the stretch too, going 14-4-3 from December 3rd to Saturday's loss to Lowell in the Hockey East final.

Nowheresville
03-20-2017, 02:05 PM
For that matter, avoiding intra-conference match-ups has always been assumed to be a lower priority than maintaining band integrity, but that assumption has yet to be put to the test.

Actually, it has been put to the test before, in 08 or 09. There were 5 WCHA teams in the 2/3 bands, and you wound up with Denver playing Wisconsin in the first round.

Numbers
03-20-2017, 04:12 PM
True, but disingenuous. Also unnecessarily disingenuous. I'll explain.

5MM's point was that having two regionals in the Northeast States creates a high probability of an easy car trip for fans of the Northeast schools. Life is never 100% fair, but that is an advantage. Have the integrity to acknowledge that. The fact that Bridgeport locals, with their NYC orientation, might be disinclined to root for New England schools is all but irrelevant. Few local neutrals attend the regionals. The few that do aren't going make much noise.

Further, you don't even need that argument. If you want to justify the Northeast Regionals, just point out two things:

1. Because of the proximity of so many fanbases, those regionals actually draw some fans. Solvency is a good thing.
2. To get a regional, you have to bid for a regional. Don't like the status quo? Submit a bid.

This is a small glimpse of a conversation that's be going on for years on USCHO. Meaning the debate pitting Tournament Atmosphere vs. Truly Neutral Sites. Personally I'm deeply disappointed by the status quo. But dropping the modestly successful sites for more empty buildings is not the answer.


Frankly for all the years where western schools have gotten home ice... michigan, Michigan state, Minnesota, etc.

Thanks for joining us, fellows.

In the current system, I have no problem with how the eastern situation plays out. There is a big concentration of teams near boston, so Providence, Manchester, Bridgeport all make sense. Albany is not far away, either, but seems a little less like good sense, most years. In any case, the concentration of most of the ECAC, HE and AHA schools in that region really means that every fan base COULD get to the games if they wanted to.

The Midwest and the West are different animals. Distances between schools are far greater. Good teams like Denver have only one other school for 100s of miles. It's far harder to create a meaningful regional environment in cases like that. Mind you, I am not whining. I can't afford to go, no matter where it is.

But, because, I the West/Midwest there is such a much larger possibility of either 1) Empty crowds, or 2) Highly partisan crowds for lower seeds, I think the system needs to change.

We should have the top seeds host the regionals.

pgb-ohio
03-20-2017, 05:59 PM
Frankly for all the years where western schools have gotten home ice... michigan, Michigan state, Minnesota, etc.:confused:

I'm defending having two regionals in the Northeast. My point was that you don't split hairs about the exact location of Bridgeport to reach that conclusion.

Apparently you're referring to things I've posted in the past? Or maybe you thought I was guilty of faint praise. ;)

But I am sincere about this: If we're stuck with the current system, moving one of the Regionals further West in the name of greater neutrality would be a mistake.

Slap Shot
03-20-2017, 06:52 PM
Those "stumbles" are a concern. Normally you want to be carrying some momentum into the postseason. We're 3-3-1 in our last 7, avg. less than 3 goals/game. In the same amount of games before that in Feb., we were avg. 5 goals/game.


The Gophers lost their last 2 games in 2014 before the NCAAs.

SteveO
03-21-2017, 01:15 AM
2014 and .06 sec. I hope the guys who were FR then, get one more shot at THIS (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ZKgANRbI1w#t=1116.040907) as seniors.

gopher wes
03-21-2017, 10:27 AM
Do we make regional threads or....?

ScoobyDoo
03-21-2017, 10:41 AM
The Gophers lost their last 2 games in 2014 before the NCAAs.

I'm more concerned about how the Gophers never seem to get to the Frozen Four unless the games are played in their backyard.

D2D
03-21-2017, 11:49 AM
I'm more concerned about how the Gophers never seem to get to the Frozen Four unless the games are played in their backyard.
Where did I read recently that all teams seem to have this issue? Teams that must fly to their regional have a significantly poorer record than those that bus in?

ScoobyDoo
03-21-2017, 12:35 PM
Where did I read recently that all teams seem to have this issue? Teams that must fly to their regional have a significantly poorer record than those that bus in?

Not sure where it was but I can confirm that I saw the same stats.

SteveO
03-21-2017, 12:53 PM
Not sure where it was but I can confirm that I saw the same stats.

Top of the page.:)