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gfmorris
11-26-2016, 09:20 AM
I realize that each game impacts future predictions. But I am curious as to how many games have ended with a result that was less than a 50% probability. I'd look but then it would appear I understand your methodology.

You're asking how often a Friday game result ended up changing the overall series prediction? I could (and maybe should) re-run every Saturday. I'll probably wait until I'm running to the end of the season.

GFM

beaverhockeyfan
11-26-2016, 10:57 AM
Dear Bemidji,

You probably just lost your chance of an at large bid. great work.

I don't think all is lost. They only dropped to 10th and have five non-conference games left to make some noise. I think this loss will do them some good and wake them up.

gfmorris
11-26-2016, 01:34 PM
I don't think all is lost. They only dropped to 10th and have five non-conference games left to make some noise. I think this loss will do them some good and wake them up.

The big problem there is that NCHC and HEA teams generally rise in Pairwise as they play each other more in conference play. You're not getting help from UAH in PWR.

GFM

beaverhockeyfan
11-26-2016, 06:06 PM
The big problem there is that NCHC and HEA teams generally rise in Pairwise as they play each other more in conference play. You're not getting help from UAH in PWR.

GFM

Yeah, as I was tunning kids to hockey practice and hanging Christmas lights, I came to the some of the same conclusions. The Beavers definitely made things harder on themselces with last night's loss.

LSSULaker889294
11-26-2016, 09:36 PM
What the hell Bemidji?? AGAIN!!!

Andrew J Carter
11-26-2016, 09:49 PM
What the hell Bemidji?? AGAIN!!!

Ya, just got back from the Sanford Center. "Same Bat Time, Same Bat Channel" Not feeling good.

Critical Thinker
11-26-2016, 10:29 PM
Ya, just got back from the Sanford Center. "Same Bat Time, Same Bat Channel" Not feeling good.

All 10 of us are cursed in non-conference play. There's no other logical explanation.

bravohankins
11-26-2016, 11:56 PM
Wow......BSU may have just put the final nail in the WCHA PairWise coffin with these two loses. Looks like all that is going to matter is winning that on home ice WCHA Playoff title now.

BG dropped from 31 to 37 with BSU's loss tonight.

I doubt that BG's remaining games against Mercyhurst and RIT are going to help anyone at all......not that we don't deserve much of the blame with our pathetic October against NCHC and B1G teams.

LSSULaker889294
11-27-2016, 12:54 AM
All 10 of us are cursed in non-conference play. There's no other logical explanation.

The WCHA NC record is absolutely brutal. I won't be surprised if there's only one WCHA team in the NCAA tournament once again.

purpleinnebraska
11-28-2016, 08:07 AM
Interesting tidbit out of Bemidji. The game between Princeton and the Beavers has a female referee. I think that is the first female referee for a Beaver men's game!

We had one in Kato earlier this year. I don't follow the referees much (Except when we have the Shepherds. Then I just get sad.), but there must be one in regular WCHA rotation.

beaverhockeyfan
11-28-2016, 08:33 AM
We had one in Kato earlier this year. I don't follow the referees much (Except when we have the Shepherds. Then I just get sad.), but there must be one in regular WCHA rotation.

I have no complaints, she did well out there. The Beavers on the other hand..........

beaverhockeyfan
11-28-2016, 08:34 AM
2016-17 WCHA Non-Conference Schedule

The WCHA has 69 non-conference games this year, not including the one game between Alaska and Alaska-Anchorage.
27 Possible NCHC Games (3-13-2)
25 Possible Big10 Games (8-14-1)
8 Possible Hockey East Games (0-2-0)
8 Possible Atlantic Hockey Games (1-1-0)
7 Possible ECAC Games (0-2-0)
TOTAL: 12-32-3

ALABAMA-HUNTSVILLE (0-4-0)
-2 at Connecticut L 6-0, L 4-0
-2 at St. Cloud State L 5-1, L 5-2
-vs. Massachusetts (Minneapolis, MN)
-vs. Minnesota/Mercyhurst (Minneapolis, MN)

ALASKA (1-3-0)
-at Alaska-Anchorage W 4-1
-vs. Minnesota (Anchorage, AK) L 6-3
-Canisius L 2-1 (OT)
-Nebraska-Omaha L 4-3 (OT)
-2 at Notre Dame

ALASKA-ANCHORAGE (1-5-0)
-Minnesota L 6-0
-Alaska L 4-1
-vs. Nebraska-Omaha (Fairbanks, AK) L 3-1
-vs. Canisius (Fairbanks, AK) W 1-0
-2 at Penn State L 6-3, L 3-1

BEMIDJI STATE (0-4-0)
-2 at North Dakota L 3-2, L 5-4
-2 with Princeton L 4-1, L 3-1
-at Minnesota-Duluth
-Minnesota Duluth
-vs. St. Cloud State (St. Paul, MN)
-vs. Minnesota/Minnesota-Duluth (St. Paul, MN)

BOWLING GREEN (1-4-1)
-Western Michigan T 4-4
-at Western Michigan L 8-2
-Ohio State L 5-4
-at Ohio State L 6-1
-2 at Miami L 2-1 (OT), W 4-1
-vs. RIT (Toledo, OH)
-with Mercyhurst

FERRIS STATE (1-4-0)
-Western Michigan L 5-3
-at Western Michigan L 2-1
-Michigan L 2-1
-at Michigan State W 4-1
-Michigan State L 4-3
-vs. Robert Morris (Pittsburgh, PA)
-vs. Boston College/Quinnipiac (Pittsburgh, PA)

LAKE SUPERIOR STATE (3-1-0)
-2 with Michigan State W 6-1, W 7-3
-2 at Michigan W 3-1, L 4-1
-2 at Nebraska-Omaha

MICHIGAN TECH (1-4-1)
-2 at Minnesota Duluth L 6-0, L 4-3
-2 at Michigan L 4-3, T 3-3
-2 at Michigan State L 3-2 (OT), W 5-1
-vs. Michigan (Detroit, MI)
-vs. Western Michigan/Michigan State (Detroit, MI)
-2 at Notre Dame

MINNESOTA STATE (3-1-0)
-2 with St. Cloud State W 4-1, W 6-4
-Minnesota W 4-1
-at Minnesota L 1-0
-2 at Princeton

NORTHERN MICHIGAN (2-3-1)
-2 vs. Wisconsin (at Green Bay) W 3-2, L 6-5
-2 at Wisconsin W 5-2, L 2-0
-2 with Nebraska-Omaha T 2-2, L 2-0
-vs. Colorado College/Cornell/Mercyhurst (Estero, FL)
-vs. Colorado College/Cornell/Mercyhurst (Estero, FL)

BGFan
11-28-2016, 08:48 AM
I realize that each game impacts future predictions. But I am curious as to how many games have ended with a result that was less than a 50% probability. I'd look but then it would appear I understand your methodology.

And as an aside, I despise the Seawolves. But according to BG announcers, every time a Falcon hit the the the ice they were brought down without a call. And every time a Seawolve hit the ice they slipped or fell. I admit that the Seawolves suck and can't skate, but that's beside the point, give me a break. BG announcers are a bunch of homers. It gags me me to give the Seawolves a compliment, even back-handed.
Keep in mind that the announcers you heard are students, not professionals. They are also radio announcers and not TV announcers so, yes, they are going to be biased as most home team radio announcers are. They are describing what they see to those who cannot see the game, from a BG slant. FWIW, I think that Evan does a really good job and will likely have a good career in sports broadcasting after he graduates.

When BCSN (Toledo area cable sports TV broadcasters) airs the games (generally one of the 2 weekend games) you will get a less biased broadcast and better camera work.

gfmorris
12-01-2016, 12:21 PM
Week 9 BELOW: http://blog.wchaplayoffs.com/2016/12/01/2016-17-week-9-below-ratings/

I'm thankful that UAH-FSU is Sat-Sun, because I'll get to see BSU-MTU on Friday night.

GFM

beaverhockeyfan
12-01-2016, 12:37 PM
Week 9 BELOW: http://blog.wchaplayoffs.com/2016/12/01/2016-17-week-9-below-ratings/

I'm thankful that UAH-FSU is Sat-Sun, because I'll get to see BSU-MTU on Friday night.

GFM

Ughh.... And I won't be able to catch Friday's game as I will be at my company Christmas party..... :(

Critical Thinker
12-04-2016, 01:30 AM
If everyone continues their pace, here's how the season will end:

Bemidji 76
MTU 60
BGSU 54
MSU 47

UAH 37
FSU 36
LSSU 35
UAF 30

UAA 17
NMU 16


Observations:

-Bemidji would need a Cliff-Clavin-Jeopardy level collapse to not win the McNaughton. There's no wider gap in the standings between any neighboring teams.
-Huge series this weekend in Ohio that could very well determine who gets home ice in round 2. Studying for finals be ****ed, I'll be front row for that.
-MSU seems pretty well situated to stay in the top 4. A move up to 3 or 2 is possible, though.
-Not much can be said about the 5-8 range. It's near certainty that they'll be in a road playoff series, but as to who goes where, that will be tightly contested through the rest of the season.
-UAA and NMU are going to need a lot of help to get out of the hole they've dug themselves in.

Shirtless Guy
12-04-2016, 01:54 AM
If everyone continues their pace, here's how the season will end:

Bemidji 76
MTU 60
BGSU 54
MSU 47

UAH 37
FSU 36
LSSU 35
UAF 30

UAA 17
NMU 16


Observations:

-Bemidji would need a Cliff-Clavin-Jeopardy level collapse to not win the McNaughton. There's no wider gap in the standings between any neighboring teams.
-Huge series this weekend in Ohio that could very well determine who gets home ice in round 2. Studying for finals be ****ed, I'll be front row for that.
-MSU seems pretty well situated to stay in the top 4. A move up to 3 or 2 is possible, though.
-Not much can be said about the 5-8 range. It's near certainty that they'll be in a road playoff series, but as to who goes where, that will be tightly contested through the rest of the season.
-UAA and NMU are going to need a lot of help to get out of the hole they've dug themselves in.
I still don't agree with that assessment of BSU...they got swept by Princeton, all it takes is another weekend like that against a conference opponent and they'll come back to the pack.

moose97
12-04-2016, 07:32 AM
I still don't agree with that assessment of BSU...they got swept by Princeton, all it takes is another weekend like that against a conference opponent and they'll come back to the pack.

My response to that is - anything but a couple losses would be considered that type of collapse. Consider that BSU has already taken 14 of 18 points against the other 3 teams in the top tier, and plays still has a majority of their remaining games vs that group at home (only 2 @ BGSU). Biggest point being they don't have much work to secure tiebreakers over those three.

Now, I'm not saying that BSU won't suffer some sort of collapse, but anything more than losing a couple games while expecting either of MTU/MSU/BGSU to win out is a stretch.

beaverhockeyfan
12-04-2016, 08:46 AM
Gotta agree with Moose here. Will BSU lose a game or two (or three) down the stretch? More than likely, yes. Even if BSU goes 7-7 down the stretch, Tech has to go 10-4 to pass them. Bowling Green and Mankato each have two games in hand, but still have to make up 13 and 15 points.

RaceBoarder
12-04-2016, 09:15 AM
I have a feeling that NMU's win over Anchorage last night may have been the highlight of their season :mad: