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2016-2017 WCHA Season Thread

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  • Re: 2016-2017 WCHA Season Thread

    Originally posted by gfmorris View Post
    Week 6 BELOW Rankings

    Bemidji going from barely above average to verging on being a team expected to win three games in four the rest of the way. The crazy thing is this: by starting 8-0-0 with Minnesota State in 2nd at 5-3-0, if the Beavers do go 15-5-0, the Mavs have to go 18-2-0 [i]just to keep pace[/url]. That gets really tough because the Mavs would pretty much have to sweep the season series to make the numbers work.

    I hate everything.

    Go Mavs.

    GFM
    I still don't know what to think about the Beavers. They are playing really well, but the way things have played out this season, none of the league sweeps could really be considered "Oh My" moments.

    Maybe I am just being cautious as it is a long season. This weekend at Mankato will stay a lot about them, I feel. But they have put themselves in a good position.

    You can't win the conference title the first month of the season, but you can sure lose it.......
    Millsy

    NCAA TOURNAMENT 2005, 2006, 2009, 2010!
    FROZEN FOUR 2009!


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    BEMIDJI STATE BEAVERS!
    NAIA National Champs: 1968, '69, '70, '71, '73, '79, '80
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    NCAA D-I National Champs: 20??
    Perfect 31-0 in 1983-84
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    • Re: 2016-2017 WCHA Season Thread

      Originally posted by Shirtless Guy View Post
      Today starts my new series, Recruiting Grounds, where I go in depth on many of the leagues where Michigan Tech gets their recruits. I think this will have plenty of value for all of college hockey including the WCHA since so much of hte league goes after the same recruits. I decided to start with the Upper Midwest Elite League since it just finished and MTU just happen to have a commitment from this year's leading scorer. Please check it out because this took me ALOT of time to research and break down. I hope to kick out one of the every couple weeks at least. Special thanks to the guys at the Elite League for providing pictures and stats from 2010 to present. I wish I could have found 2007 and 2008 to get me data all the way back to 2005, but it was not to be found...
      As much as it hurts to praise a tech fan, that was a great post. Just a little suggestion, which you can take or leave: When mentioning the current NHLers, I think adding "Captain" after their team could add to the weight of the league.

      I mean, I had not even heard of this league before this, and seeing Ryan McDonagh on the list, which is the current captain of the Rangers, is pretty **** impressive.
      LSSU Alumni & Fan.

      Still a work in progress, but please join us at the (unofficial) Laker Hockey Blog

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      • Re: 2016-2017 WCHA Season Thread

        Originally posted by Deman View Post
        As much as it hurts to praise a tech fan, that was a great post. Just a little suggestion, which you can take or leave: When mentioning the current NHLers, I think adding "Captain" after their team could add to the weight of the league.

        I mean, I had not even heard of this league before this, and seeing Ryan McDonagh on the list, which is the current captain of the Rangers, is pretty **** impressive.
        Thanks, I will take that input...see if I have time to figure out who is a captain. I really do appreciate the input. That was a pretty big undertaking that I thought had a ton of value, but I'm never quite sure how others will take it. Some people check out when you go too deep but it has value.
        Michigan Tech Legend, Founder of Mitch's Misfits, Co-Founder of Tech Hockey Guide, and Creator/Host of the Chasing MacNaughton Podcast covering MTU Hockey and the WCHA.

        Sports Allegiance: NFL: GB MLB: MIL NHL: MIN CB: UW CF: UW CH: MTU FIFA: USA MLS: MIN EPL: Everton

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        • Re: 2016-2017 WCHA Season Thread

          Well I think we had 1 win ooc this weekend and three losses. sigh. Congrats to Bemidji on their record so far. I wonder what has happened to mankato. After their sweep of St. Cloud they don't seem to be the same team.
          MTU: Three time NCAA champions.

          It never get's easier, you just go faster. -Greg Lemond

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          • Re: 2016-2017 WCHA Season Thread

            Bemidji State is running away with this, clearly, but by how much? The number surprised me.

            GFM
            Geof F. Morris
            UAH BSE MAE 2002
            UAHHockey.com

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            • Re: 2016-2017 WCHA Season Thread

              Originally posted by gfmorris View Post
              They're doing well, but running away? They're only 2 games up on Tech in the loss column, with 4 games to play.
              Having a clear conscience just means you have a bad memory or you had a boring weekend.

              RIP - Kirby

              Comment


              • Re: 2016-2017 WCHA Season Thread

                Originally posted by bigblue_dl View Post
                They're doing well, but running away? They're only 2 games up on Tech in the loss column, with 4 games to play.
                My math says that you'd expect Bemidji to win about 3-games-in-4 the rest of the way — to note, that's a winning percentage below what they've been at to-date. That's 13-14 more wins. Call it 14. That's no less than 71 points, right?

                To get to 71 points, Tech needs 18 wins (or equivalent) in their 20 remaining games. Either Bemidji has to come back to Earth or Tech/Mankato has to go on an amazing run.

                Is 13-14 more wins realistic for the Beavers? Sure, when you're already 9-1-0-0 in league play. Their remaining slate: v. NMU, @ Tech, v. LSSU, @ UAA, @ BG, v. FSU, v. Tech, @ UAH, v. MSU.

                Even if you argue that they fall off strongly — going 9-0-0-9 the rest of the way — who are they losing those nine games to? Say Tech and Mankato — that makes those series almost .500 (Mankato has the edge). Figure they lose once at BG after the trip to Anchorage. You still have to find four more losses! Even if Bemidji finishes something like 18-1-0-9, that's still 56 points. Tech would need to go no worse than 13-0-0-7 just to tie that, which is certainly doable for the Huskies (I'd even argue expected!), but you're already playing the game where Bemidji isn't going to play half as well as they have to date.

                I don't have any statistical wood to put behind that arrow. Soon, I hope.

                GFM
                Geof F. Morris
                UAH BSE MAE 2002
                UAHHockey.com

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                • Originally posted by manurespreader View Post
                  Well I think we had 1 win ooc this weekend and three losses. sigh. Congrats to Bemidji on their record so far. I wonder what has happened to mankato. After their sweep of St. Cloud they don't seem to be the same team.
                  Hey don't blame UAA, we lose every game conference or non-conference...





                  U-A-A!!!Go!Go!GreenandGold!
                  Applejack Tells You How UAA Is Doing...
                  I spell Failure with UAF

                  Originally posted by UAFIceAngel
                  But let's be real...There are 40 some other teams and only two alaskan teams...the day one of us wins something big will be the day I transfer to UAA
                  Originally posted by Doyle Woody
                  Best sign by a visting Seawolf fan Friday went to a young man who held up a piece of white poster board that read: "YOU CAN'T SPELL FAILURE WITHOUT UAF."

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                  • Re: 2016-2017 WCHA Season Thread

                    Originally posted by gfmorris View Post
                    My math says that you'd expect Bemidji to win about 3-games-in-4 the rest of the way — to note, that's a winning percentage below what they've been at to-date. That's 13-14 more wins. Call it 14. That's no less than 71 points, right?

                    To get to 71 points, Tech needs 18 wins (or equivalent) in their 20 remaining games. Either Bemidji has to come back to Earth or Tech/Mankato has to go on an amazing run.

                    Is 13-14 more wins realistic for the Beavers? Sure, when you're already 9-1-0-0 in league play. Their remaining slate: v. NMU, @ Tech, v. LSSU, @ UAA, @ BG, v. FSU, v. Tech, @ UAH, v. MSU.

                    Even if you argue that they fall off strongly — going 9-0-0-9 the rest of the way — who are they losing those nine games to? Say Tech and Mankato — that makes those series almost .500 (Mankato has the edge). Figure they lose once at BG after the trip to Anchorage. You still have to find four more losses! Even if Bemidji finishes something like 18-1-0-9, that's still 56 points. Tech would need to go no worse than 13-0-0-7 just to tie that, which is certainly doable for the Huskies (I'd even argue expected!), but you're already playing the game where Bemidji isn't going to play half as well as they have to date.

                    I don't have any statistical wood to put behind that arrow. Soon, I hope.

                    GFM
                    For someone that doesn't know how to spell their own name you seem to understand the numbers pretty well. Do you prefer MiniTab, SAS, SPCC or JMP?

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                    • Re: 2016-2017 WCHA Season Thread

                      Originally posted by Jeff View Post
                      For someone that doesn't know how to spell their own name you seem to understand the numbers pretty well. Do you prefer MiniTab, SAS, SPCC or JMP?
                      I see what you did there. My University thrust Minitab upon me. I'm not really using it for this — it's a pretty simple Monte Carlo simulation.

                      GGFM
                      Geof F. Morris
                      UAH BSE MAE 2002
                      UAHHockey.com

                      Comment


                      • Re: 2016-2017 WCHA Season Thread

                        Originally posted by gfmorris View Post
                        My math says that you'd expect Bemidji to win about 3-games-in-4 the rest of the way — to note, that's a winning percentage below what they've been at to-date. That's 13-14 more wins. Call it 14. That's no less than 71 points, right?

                        To get to 71 points, Tech needs 18 wins (or equivalent) in their 20 remaining games. Either Bemidji has to come back to Earth or Tech/Mankato has to go on an amazing run.

                        Is 13-14 more wins realistic for the Beavers? Sure, when you're already 9-1-0-0 in league play. Their remaining slate: v. NMU, @ Tech, v. LSSU, @ UAA, @ BG, v. FSU, v. Tech, @ UAH, v. MSU.

                        Even if you argue that they fall off strongly — going 9-0-0-9 the rest of the way — who are they losing those nine games to? Say Tech and Mankato — that makes those series almost .500 (Mankato has the edge). Figure they lose once at BG after the trip to Anchorage. You still have to find four more losses! Even if Bemidji finishes something like 18-1-0-9, that's still 56 points. Tech would need to go no worse than 13-0-0-7 just to tie that, which is certainly doable for the Huskies (I'd even argue expected!), but you're already playing the game where Bemidji isn't going to play half as well as they have to date.

                        I don't have any statistical wood to put behind that arrow. Soon, I hope.

                        GFM
                        I don't need your fancy math to tell me that Tech is behind BSU by 2 games, and play them 4 times. That is not a runaway.
                        Having a clear conscience just means you have a bad memory or you had a boring weekend.

                        RIP - Kirby

                        Comment


                        • Re: 2016-2017 WCHA Season Thread

                          Originally posted by bigblue_dl View Post
                          I don't need your fancy math to tell me that Tech is behind BSU by 2 games, and play them 4 times. That is not a runaway.
                          Well, it's obvious that Tech has their future in their hands with the four games. If I carry the math to the end, I'm willing to bet that Tech, on average, finishes in the top two and sometimes finishes in the top spot. That's entirely possible. I just don't know how likely it is.

                          GFM
                          Geof F. Morris
                          UAH BSE MAE 2002
                          UAHHockey.com

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                          • Re: 2016-2017 WCHA Season Thread

                            Originally posted by gfmorris View Post
                            The Huskies also still have two games in hand on the Beavers.

                            Comment


                            • Re: 2016-2017 WCHA Season Thread

                              Originally posted by John J. MacInnes View Post
                              The Huskies also still have two games in hand on the Beavers.
                              My argument stands. If you presume that the Beavers will win about 3-in-4 (and I do) — whether they be against Tech or not —*it gets very hard for Tech to catch up. Even if Tech beats Bemidji four times, it's still a lot of ground to catch up.

                              You can argue with the assumptions all you like. This is not a conclusion that I expected when I started thinking about it, because I was all, "Nobody runs away with the league title 10 games into the season / before Thanksgiving." They haven't, but they've got one hell of a start.

                              GFM
                              Geof F. Morris
                              UAH BSE MAE 2002
                              UAHHockey.com

                              Comment


                              • Re: 2016-2017 WCHA Season Thread

                                Originally posted by gfmorris View Post
                                My argument stands. If you presume that the Beavers will win about 3-in-4 (and I do) — whether they be against Tech or not —*it gets very hard for Tech to catch up. Even if Tech beats Bemidji four times, it's still a lot of ground to catch up.

                                You can argue with the assumptions all you like. This is not a conclusion that I expected when I started thinking about it, because I was all, "Nobody runs away with the league title 10 games into the season / before Thanksgiving." They haven't, but they've got one hell of a start.

                                GFM
                                They are off to a great start. And Ferris State made a pretty good argument in 2013-14 that you can get off to a great start and 'run & hide' from the chasing pack. But if Tech matches Bemidji's points this weekend and then sweeps the following week, the gap is 6 points - or 2 wins. It only looks like a huge lead because of the new point system.

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