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KRACH predicts the ECAC Playoffs

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  • KRACH predicts the ECAC Playoffs

    Herewith, a KRACH-based set of probabilities for the ECAC playoffs
    Probabilities of Winning Round 2
    Quinnipiac 0.883
    Yale 0.830
    Harvard 0.690
    St. Lawrence 0.509
    Clarkson 0.491
    RPI 0.310
    Dartmouth 0.170
    Cornell 0.117
    Semifinal Probabilities
    Quinnipiac-St. Lawrence 0.258
    Quinnipiac-Clarkson 0.248
    Quinnipiac-RPI 0.227
    Quinnipiac-Dartmouth 0.151
    Yale-St. Lawrence 0.116
    Yale-Clarkson 0.111
    Yale-Harvard 0.505
    Yale-Cornell 0.097
    Harvard-St. Lawrence 0.087
    Harvard-Clarkson 0.084
    Harvard-Cornell 0.014
    St. Lawrence-RPI 0.039
    St. Lawrence-Dartmouth 0.007
    St. Lawrence-Cornell 0.003
    Clarkson-Cornell 0.003
    Clarkson-RPI 0.038
    Clarkson-Dartmouth 0.007
    RPI-Dartmouth 0.006
    Final Probabilities Probability High Seed LowSeed
    Quinnipiac-Yale 0.371 0.662 0.338
    Quinnipiac-Harvard 0.228 0.731 0.269
    Quinnipiac-St. Lawrence 0.056 0.817 0.183
    Quinnipiac-Clarkson 0.053 0.820 0.180
    Quinnipiac-RPI 0.019 0.822 0.178
    Yale-Harvard 0.027 0.582 0.418
    Yale-St. Lawrence 0.041 0.694 0.306
    Yale-Clarkson 0.039 0.700 0.300
    Yale-RPI 0.038 0.702 0.298
    Harvard-St. Lawrence 0.022 0.620 0.380
    Harvard-Clarkson 0.021 0.626 0.374
    Harvard-Dartmouth 0.014 0.669 0.331
    Harvard-Cornell 0.014 0.576 0.424
    St. Lawrence-RPI 0.007 0.510 0.490
    St. Lawrence-Dartmouth 0.006 0.553 0.447
    St. Lawrence-Cornell 0.009 0.454 0.546
    Clarkson-RPI 0.007 0.503 0.497
    Clarkson-Dartmouth 0.006 0.547 0.453
    Clarkson-Cornell 0.008 0.447 0.553
    RPI-Dartmouth 0.004 0.544 0.456
    RPI-Cornell 0.007 0.444 0.556
    Dartmouth-Cornell 0.004 0.402 0.598
    Quinnipiac 0.518
    Yale 0.223
    Harvard 0.117
    St. Lawrence 0.042
    Clarkson 0.039
    RPI 0.027
    Dartmouth 0.013
    Cornell 0.022
    This last table represents autobid probabilities
    Last edited by goblue78; 03-08-2016, 01:11 PM. Reason: Clarity

  • #2
    Re: KRACH predicts the ECAC Playoffs

    http://board.uscho.com/showthread.ph...=1#post6289164
    Originally posted by lugnut92 View Post
    And the first round goes chalk. Will round two? Who knows? Despite being fourth in the league in KRACH, Cornell gets the "prize" of playing the Bobcat juggernaut in Hamden this weekend, where KRACH says they will likely fall in a sweep. A few miles south, Yale is predicted to easily handle Dartmouth.

    Code:
          KRACH |    QF    SF     F
    -------------------------------
    Qu |  730.1 |  88.3  72.8  51.9
    Ya |  372.6 |  83.0  51.6  22.3
    Ha |  268.1 |  69.0  32.6  11.6
    SL |  164.0 |  51.0  14.1   4.2
    Ck |  159.9 |  49.0  13.3   3.9
    RP |  157.5 |  31.0   8.2   2.7
    Da |  132.5 |  17.0   3.2   1.3
    Cr |  197.6 |  11.7   4.3   2.2
    
    Semifinal Matchups:
     SF|    Ha    SL    Ck    RP    Da    Cr
    ----------------------------------------
    Qu |     x  25.8  24.8  22.7  15.0     x
    Ya |  50.6  11.6  11.1     x     x   9.7
    Ha |     x   8.7   8.4     x     x   1.4
    SL |     x     x     x   3.9   0.7   0.3
    Ck |     x     x     x   3.8   0.7   0.3
    RP |     x     x     x     x   0.6     x
    
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    sigpic

    Let's Go 'Tute!

    Maxed out at 2,147,483,647 at 10:00 AM EDT 9/17/07.

    2012 Poser Of The Year

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    • #3
      Re: KRACH predicts the ECAC Playoffs

      If only there were already a thread for this...

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: KRACH predicts the ECAC Playoffs

        Well, I would point out that my formulation actually has slightly more information in it, namely the probabilities for every possible matchup, including the possible final matchups, and that it wasn't done by Monte Carlo, so it's completely accurate, but mostly it's because I didn't see this one. Sorry lugnut.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: KRACH predicts the ECAC Playoffs

          Nice job, I hope it is all correct except the final winner.
          YALE HOCKEY
          2013 National Champions

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: KRACH predicts the ECAC Playoffs

            Updates to reflect last night's results
            Probabilities of Winning Round 2
            Quinnipiac0.955
            Yale0.544
            Harvard0.863
            St. Lawrence0.756
            Clarkson0.244
            RPI0.137
            Dartmouth0.456
            Cornell0.045
            Semifinal
            Probabilities
            Quinnipiac-St.
            Lawrence
            0.339
            Quinnipiac-Clarkson0.109
            Quinnipiac-RPI0.071
            Quinnipiac-Dartmouth0.435
            Yale-St.
            Lawrence
            0.054
            Yale-Clarkson0.017
            Yale-Harvard0.448
            Yale-Cornell0.025
            Harvard-St.
            Lawrence
            0.300
            Harvard-Clarkson0.097
            Harvard-Cornell0.018
            St.
            Lawrence-RPI
            0.048
            St.
            Lawrence-Dartmouth
            0.013
            St.
            Lawrence-Cornell
            0.002
            Clarkson-Cornell0.001
            Clarkson-RPI0.015
            Clarkson-Dartmouth0.004
            RPI-Dartmouth0.003
            Final
            Probabilities
            ProbabilityHigh SeedLowSeed
            Quinnipiac-Yale0.2540.6620.338
            Quinnipiac-Harvard0.3510.7310.269
            Quinnipiac-St.
            Lawrence
            0.1240.8170.183
            Quinnipiac-Clarkson0.0390.8200.180
            Quinnipiac-RPI0.0250.8220.178
            Yale-Harvard0.0090.5820.418
            Yale-St.
            Lawrence
            0.0410.6940.306
            Yale-Clarkson0.0130.7000.300
            Yale-RPI0.0100.7020.298
            Harvard-St.
            Lawrence
            0.0300.6200.380
            Harvard-Clarkson0.0100.6260.374
            Harvard-Dartmouth0.0400.6690.331
            Harvard-Cornell0.0050.5760.424
            St.
            Lawrence-RPI
            0.0030.5100.490
            St.
            Lawrence-Dartmouth
            0.0210.5530.447
            St.
            Lawrence-Cornell
            0.0060.4540.546
            Clarkson-RPI0.0010.5030.497
            Clarkson-Dartmouth0.0070.5470.453
            Clarkson-Cornell0.0020.4470.553
            RPI-Dartmouth0.0050.5440.456
            RPI-Cornell0.0010.4440.556
            Dartmouth-Cornell0.0040.4020.598
            Quinnipiac0.579
            Yale0.135
            Harvard0.152
            St. Lawrence0.063
            Clarkson0.020
            RPI0.013
            Dartmouth0.029
            Cornell0.009

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