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View Full Version : RPI Hockey 2015 - 2016 (Part II): We want more banners, not more flags



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Ralph Baer
02-07-2016, 10:59 AM
Nice to see that the recruiting pipeline to Australia is opening up

We did have a quarterback recently from Australia. :)

FlagDUDE08
02-08-2016, 04:47 AM
Hope to hang on to. Top 8 now

As much as that's a good thing, with a gap of 8 points with 6 games to go, we haven't won a home playoff series since before I started at RPI. We did break the 3-0 bug, so you never know.

FlagDUDE08
02-08-2016, 05:56 AM
On a brighter note, with Brown having a max-out of 17, we can't finish in last. :)

DrDemento
02-08-2016, 06:54 AM
As much as that's a good thing, with a gap of 8 points with 6 games to go, we haven't won a home playoff series since before I started at RPI. We did break the 3-0 bug, so you never know.

Not giving up on this team or group of boys at all. We most certainly need a healthy DM and Parker Reno back and fast. Their statistics do not really show how valuable they are to the team play.

FlagDUDE08
02-08-2016, 08:05 AM
Not giving up on this team or group of boys at all. We most certainly need a healthy DM and Parker Reno back and fast. Their statistics do not really show how valuable they are to the team play.

I don't think anyone's giving up here. As much as I may point out improbabilities, that does not mean it is without mathematical possibility. Hopefully we get them back, though.

DeepRed72
02-08-2016, 09:37 AM
I don't think anyone's giving up here. As much as I may point out improbabilities, that does not mean it is without mathematical possibility. Hopefully we get them back, though.

Hope may be a good thing but I'm afraid here it is a long shot, almost 20 to 1. The site http://playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/ncaahockeytournseedprob.html gives Rensselaer a 12% chance of making the NCAA field. I think that is way high. We are now 20th in KRACH and 22nd in RPI index. In order to be in an At-Large position we need to win the last 6 games (would put us about #13 PWR) and then (with the first round ECAC bye) need to qualify for Lake Placid by winning the home playoff round. Since that probability is less than 1% (1 divided by 2 to the seventh power or 1/128 if all games/series are 50% - which is a high probability) then we must concentrate on winning the ECAC's as our best chance. It looks likely that we will need to play both rounds and win to get to Placid. Assuming that would be 25% (once again a high assumption) then we need to win two games against the likes of QU, Harvard, Yale, etc. At best that is 25%. So 6% chance of winning the ECACs if all teams were equal. I roughly estimate our chances of making the NCAA's right now at less than 5%. I know that this is back of the envelope but if anyone has a better way to quantify our futility I am all ears.

Jasma
02-08-2016, 11:41 AM
All the probabilities and statistics are a fine waste of time. These are humans, playing a game with lots of variables. Chances of making the NCAAs are smaller than 2 weeks ago, but SLU, Clarkson and Dartmouth all had bad streaks this season and rebounded nicely. Getting Melanson back soon, Reno hopefully in 2 weeks and having Bourbonnais back near 100% would certainly raise the odds. This will be a tough road trip this week, but good hard play for closer to 60 minutes, like they showed for 4 of six periods last week, and a couple of bounces, and they could earn some standings points. A discouraging weekend for sure, but the ECAC standings are predictably tight and only a couple of wins means a top 6 finish. Top 4 is still not out of reach. Not bad when you consider that almost everyone, including most on this site, expected this team would have no shot at even a top-8 finish this season.

jericho
02-08-2016, 12:57 PM
All the probabilities and statistics are a fine waste of time. These are humans, playing a game with lots of variables. Chances of making the NCAAs are smaller than 2 weeks ago, but SLU, Clarkson and Dartmouth all had bad streaks this season and rebounded nicely. Getting Melanson back soon, Reno hopefully in 2 weeks and having Bourbonnais back near 100% would certainly raise the odds. This will be a tough road trip this week, but good hard play for closer to 60 minutes, like they showed for 4 of six periods last week, and a couple of bounces, and they could earn some standings points. A discouraging weekend for sure, but the ECAC standings are predictably tight and only a couple of wins means a top 6 finish. Top 4 is still not out of reach. Not bad when you consider that almost everyone, including most on this site, expected this team would have no shot at even a top-8 finish this season.

Best post of the entire season. Thank you for giving a virtual beatdown to the people who think doomsday is upon us.

DeepRed72
02-08-2016, 12:57 PM
All the probabilities and statistics are a fine waste of time. These are humans, playing a game with lots of variables. Chances of making the NCAAs are smaller than 2 weeks ago, but SLU, Clarkson and Dartmouth all had bad streaks this season and rebounded nicely. Getting Melanson back soon, Reno hopefully in 2 weeks and having Bourbonnais back near 100% would certainly raise the odds. This will be a tough road trip this week, but good hard play for closer to 60 minutes, like they showed for 4 of six periods last week, and a couple of bounces, and they could earn some standings points. A discouraging weekend for sure, but the ECAC standings are predictably tight and only a couple of wins means a top 6 finish. Top 4 is still not out of reach. Not bad when you consider that almost everyone, including most on this site, expected this team would have no shot at even a top-8 finish this season.

Probabilities and statistics are a waste of time? Ok I won't even start to debate that statement. They showed up for 4 of 6 periods, really? What about the week before, 1 of 6? If you are satisfied with a top 6 finish in the ECAC or just qualifying for the ECAC finals for the first time in 10+ years then you probably have realistic expectations. I'm glad that makes you and some others here happy. Sorry, but for me it is unacceptable year after year. For me mediocrity doesn't cut it. Not scoring a goal in the NCAAs since 1985 doesn't cut it. I probably don't have another 31 years to wait for the program to finally turn around. Most colleges have a 3 or 4 year plan. Not this one apparently. But as Doc points out, we have plenty of excuses to last a lifetime.

lugnut92
02-08-2016, 01:04 PM
Best post of the entire season. Thank you for giving a virtual beatdown to the people who think doomsday is upon us.

I am beat down. Come see how beat I am in a few minutes when I get the weekly projected standings up in the other thread.

DeepRed72
02-08-2016, 01:08 PM
I am beat down. Come see how beat I am in a few minutes when I get the weekly projected standings up in the other thread.

My vote for best post of the season. :)

Ralph Baer
02-08-2016, 01:16 PM
Hey Jericho,

I assume that you are in contact with Kurt Stutt. I sent him an email message via his website a few weeks ago which he did not act upon or respond to. Perhaps it goes to a nonexistent email address. I mentioned that item 3.6 in his Football FAQ http://www.augenblick.org/rpi/f_faq.html needs to be updated since an RPI alum has now played in the NFL.

turk181
02-08-2016, 03:32 PM
Not giving up on this team or group of boys at all. We most certainly need a healthy DM and Parker Reno back and fast. Their statistics do not really show how valuable they are to the team play.Was told that Drew is doubtful ATT for this weekend. Knee contusion. Will have a better read on it Tues./Wed. If Parker’s original time frame is still 6-8 weeks (from Jan.7) 6 weeks would be the Col./Cor. series......8 weeks would be the ECAC 1st Rd.

turk181
02-08-2016, 03:34 PM
:eek: at first glance I thought Yeti was tweeting about RPI. Maybe itís a Lincoln thing though ;) <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Yikes. Not a good effort from the Stars tonight. They had a 2-0 lead early in the 3rd period &amp; lose 4-2 to Sioux Falls. No killer instinct.</p>&mdash; Tim Sattler (@TDSattler) <a href="https://twitter.com/TDSattler/status/695808583099748353">February 6, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Waite21
02-08-2016, 03:50 PM
For those who may be looking for any sort of good omen -

LaSalle, Penn, St. Joseph's, Temple, and Villanova, collectively known as Philadelphia's Big Five schools, have accounted for two NCAA men's basketball championships. Those occurred in 1954 (LaSalle) and 1985 (Villanova).

Readers of this thread may be aware of who won the NCAA men's ice hockey championships in those years. ;)

Villanova is now ranked #1 in the NCAA basketball poll. :)

jericho
02-08-2016, 05:02 PM
Probabilities and statistics are a waste of time? Ok I won't even start to debate that statement. They showed up for 4 of 6 periods, really? What about the week before, 1 of 6? If you are satisfied with a top 6 finish in the ECAC or just qualifying for the ECAC finals for the first time in 10+ years then you probably have realistic expectations. I'm glad that makes you and some others here happy. Sorry, but for me it is unacceptable year after year. For me mediocrity doesn't cut it. Not scoring a goal in the NCAAs since 1985 doesn't cut it. I probably don't have another 31 years to wait for the program to finally turn around. Most colleges have a 3 or 4 year plan. Not this one apparently. But as Doc points out, we have plenty of excuses to last a lifetime.

Do statistics account for injury or players leaving early? Let me know.

Ralph Baer
02-08-2016, 05:05 PM
For those who may be looking for any sort of good omen -

LaSalle, Penn, St. Joseph's, Temple, and Villanova, collectively known as Philadelphia's Big Five schools, have accounted for two NCAA men's basketball championships. Those occurred in 1954 (LaSalle) and 1985 (Villanova).

Readers of this thread may be aware of who won the NCAA men's ice hockey championships in those years. ;)

Villanova is now ranked #1 in the NCAA basketball poll. :)

Interesting. :)

Somewhere I have the issue of Sports Illustrated when RPI won the 1985 championship. The cover has a picture of Villanova vs. Georgetown.

jericho
02-08-2016, 05:12 PM
Hey Jericho,

I assume that you are in contact with Kurt Stutt. I sent him an email message via his website a few weeks ago which he did not act upon or respond to. Perhaps it goes to a nonexistent email address. I mentioned that item 3.6 in his Football FAQ http://www.augenblick.org/rpi/f_faq.html needs to be updated since an RPI alum has now played in the NFL.

Send him another one. He has been sick for a bit and is very busy with work.

Ralph Baer
02-08-2016, 05:32 PM
Send him another one. He has been sick for a bit and is very busy with work.

I will wait a while then. Perhaps someone else will notice.

FlagDUDE08
02-08-2016, 05:52 PM
Hope may be a good thing but I'm afraid here it is a long shot, almost 20 to 1. The site http://playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/ncaahockeytournseedprob.html gives Rensselaer a 12% chance of making the NCAA field. I think that is way high. We are now 20th in KRACH and 22nd in RPI index. In order to be in an At-Large position we need to win the last 6 games (would put us about #13 PWR) and then (with the first round ECAC bye) need to qualify for Lake Placid by winning the home playoff round. Since that probability is less than 1% (1 divided by 2 to the seventh power or 1/128 if all games/series are 50% - which is a high probability) then we must concentrate on winning the ECAC's as our best chance. It looks likely that we will need to play both rounds and win to get to Placid. Assuming that would be 25% (once again a high assumption) then we need to win two games against the likes of QU, Harvard, Yale, etc. At best that is 25%. So 6% chance of winning the ECACs if all teams were equal. I roughly estimate our chances of making the NCAA's right now at less than 5%. I know that this is back of the envelope but if anyone has a better way to quantify our futility I am all ears.

Last I checked, 5% is a LONG way from zero. ;)