Here we are again, hearts full of hope as we look forward at the clean slate of the ECAC standings, wondering where our teams will end up. Well, I'm here to put an end to that hope with cold, unfeeling math. Never mind that half the conference has yet to play a game, never mind that KRACH is still using the hypothetical tie, never mind that our sample size so far is smaller than small, it's time to make unfounded projections about what will happen at the end of this ECAC schedule.
Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 10^62.98 possibilities):
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. This early in the season, it is necessary to have the aforementioned hypothetical tie to keep all of the ratings finite and non-zero.
Rank and Points breakdown:
Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 10^62.98 possibilities):
- Quinnipiac
- Clarkson
- SLU
- Union
—————
- Dartmouth
- Harvard
- Yale
- Princeton
- Cornell
- Brown
————— - Colgate
- RPI
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. This early in the season, it is necessary to have the aforementioned hypothetical tie to keep all of the ratings finite and non-zero.
Rank and Points breakdown:
Code:
| KRACH | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Qu | 2590.7 | 92.2 7.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 x 0.0 x x x x x | 1.08 | 38.92 Ck | 570.1 | 7.3 72.4 15.5 3.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x | 2.20 | 32.46 SL | 258.8 | 0.4 13.4 43.4 22.0 9.9 5.1 2.8 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 | 3.71 | 26.88 Un | 190.0 | 0.1 4.9 22.9 28.5 16.5 10.3 6.7 4.4 2.8 1.7 0.9 0.3 | 4.75 | 24.31 Da | 100.0 | 0.0 0.3 2.8 7.1 11.1 12.4 13.0 12.9 12.4 11.6 10.0 6.4 | 7.76 | 18.66 Ha | 100.0 | 0.0 0.3 2.8 7.1 11.0 12.5 13.0 12.9 12.5 11.6 10.0 6.4 | 7.76 | 18.66 Ya | 100.0 | 0.0 0.3 2.8 7.1 11.0 12.5 12.9 12.9 12.5 11.7 9.9 6.4 | 7.76 | 18.66 Pr | 100.0 | 0.0 0.3 2.8 7.1 11.0 12.4 12.9 13.0 12.5 11.6 10.0 6.4 | 7.76 | 18.65 Cr | 100.0 | 0.0 0.3 2.8 7.1 11.0 12.4 13.0 12.8 12.5 11.6 10.1 6.4 | 7.77 | 18.65 Br | 100.0 | 0.0 0.3 2.8 7.1 10.9 12.4 12.8 12.9 12.5 11.7 10.1 6.4 | 7.77 | 18.65 Cg | 77.4 | 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.9 5.4 7.5 9.4 11.4 13.4 15.7 17.9 15.4 | 9.03 | 16.42 RP | 51.6 | x 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.1 3.5 5.3 8.0 12.4 20.9 45.9 | 10.66 | 13.07 | KRACH | x 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 |AvgPts --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Qu | 2590.7 | x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.4 4.3 7.1 10.5 13.9 16.1 16.1 13.3 8.8 4.2 1.1 | 38.92 Ck | 570.1 | x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.0 3.2 4.7 6.5 8.4 10.2 11.4 11.7 11.1 9.6 7.5 5.2 3.2 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 | 32.46 SL | 258.8 | x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 2.2 3.2 4.6 6.0 7.5 8.9 9.9 10.3 10.0 9.1 7.7 6.1 4.5 3.1 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x | 26.88 Un | 190.0 | x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.9 4.1 5.5 6.9 8.3 9.3 9.9 9.8 9.3 8.1 6.7 5.1 3.7 2.5 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x | 24.31 Da | 100.0 | x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.6 3.8 5.2 6.6 8.0 9.0 9.7 9.7 9.3 8.2 7.0 5.5 4.1 3.0 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x 0.0 x x x x x | 18.66 Ha | 100.0 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.6 3.8 5.2 6.6 8.0 9.0 9.7 9.7 9.2 8.2 7.0 5.5 4.2 2.9 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x 0.0 x x x x x | 18.66 Ya | 100.0 | x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.6 3.8 5.2 6.6 8.0 9.1 9.6 9.7 9.2 8.2 6.9 5.6 4.2 2.9 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x x x | 18.66 Pr | 100.0 | x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.6 3.8 5.2 6.7 8.0 9.1 9.7 9.7 9.2 8.2 6.9 5.5 4.1 2.9 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x 0.0 x x x x x x | 18.65 Cr | 100.0 | x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.6 3.8 5.2 6.6 8.0 9.0 9.7 9.7 9.2 8.2 6.9 5.5 4.2 2.9 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x x x x | 18.65 Br | 100.0 | x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.6 3.8 5.2 6.6 8.1 9.0 9.7 9.7 9.2 8.2 6.9 5.5 4.2 2.9 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x x x x | 18.65 Cg | 77.4 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.8 2.8 4.1 5.7 7.1 8.5 9.5 9.9 9.7 9.0 7.9 6.5 5.1 3.8 2.6 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x x x x x x | 16.42 RP | 51.6 | 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.0 4.6 6.3 8.0 9.3 10.2 10.4 9.9 8.8 7.4 5.9 4.4 3.1 2.1 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x x x x x x x x x x | 13.07 Bold is each team's most likely outcome. 0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times. x means the outcome never occurred.
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