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ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16
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Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16
108 games down, 24 to go, as both remaining weekend have full 12-game slates. Quinnipiac has the bye sewn up and has all but clinched the Cleary as well. Yale and Harvard look to have definite byes as well, but both could slip as low as eighth. There appears to be a three-way dogfight for the final bye, with SLU having a major advantage over Dartmouth and RPI. Finally, it looks like the four traveling teams in the first round are set, though Union could make it out with a strong finish (and help).
Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 282,429,536,481 possibilities):- Quinnipiac
- Yale
- Harvard
- SLU
————— - RPI
- Dartmouth
- Clarkson
- Cornell
————— - Union
- Colgate
- Brown
- Princeton
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.
Rank and Points breakdown:Code:| KRACH | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Qu | 701.2 | 99.5 0.5 0.0 x x x x x x x x x | 1.01 | 36.19 Ya | 344.1 | 0.5 78.1 17.3 3.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 x x x x | 2.26 | 30.02 Ha | 279.8 | 0.0 16.1 58.7 16.3 5.7 2.4 0.7 0.1 x x x x | 3.22 | 28.28 SL | 179.7 | 0.0 4.8 16.5 36.3 23.8 13.7 4.2 0.7 x x x x | 4.40 | 26.09 RP | 169.8 | x 0.1 2.6 11.6 26.6 30.1 19.1 9.8 0.0 x x x | 5.81 | 24.55 Da | 167.9 | x 0.1 3.5 26.4 25.6 22.6 14.2 7.5 0.1 x x x | 5.40 | 24.50 Ck | 154.8 | x 0.1 1.4 4.5 11.7 18.8 37.3 26.0 0.2 x x x | 6.65 | 22.87 Cr | 170.6 | x 0.0 0.1 1.5 6.2 12.2 24.2 49.9 5.9 x x x | 7.32 | 21.94 Un | 123.5 | x x x x x 0.0 0.3 5.9 89.4 4.1 0.4 0.0 | 8.98 | 17.16 Cg | 44.4 | x x x x x x x x 3.8 59.3 31.6 5.3 | 10.38 | 11.95 Br | 44.0 | x x x x x x x x 0.2 24.2 27.3 48.2 | 11.24 | 10.35 Pr | 33.7 | x x x x x x x x 0.4 12.4 40.7 46.5 | 11.33 | 10.10 | KRACH | 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 |AvgPts --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Qu | 701.2 | x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.9 9.9 14.0 29.0 18.7 24.2 | 36.19 Ya | 344.1 | x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 0.4 1.0 6.2 8.7 23.2 17.5 27.0 8.5 7.6 x x x x x | 30.02 Ha | 279.8 | x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 0.4 1.0 5.4 7.4 19.7 16.4 26.9 10.9 11.9 x x x x x x x | 28.28 SL | 179.7 | x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 2.1 3.5 15.4 13.8 27.1 14.3 16.6 4.2 3.1 x x x x x x x x | 26.09 RP | 169.8 | x x x x x x x x x x x x 0.8 1.7 9.2 11.4 28.1 17.2 22.7 5.4 3.6 x x x x x x x x x x | 24.55 Da | 167.9 | x x x x x x x x x x x x 1.5 2.5 11.4 11.6 25.2 15.4 20.7 6.3 5.5 x x x x x x x x x x | 24.50 Ck | 154.8 | x x x x x x x x x x x 2.9 4.2 17.7 14.8 27.2 13.3 14.3 3.4 2.3 x x x x x x x x x x x | 22.87 Cr | 170.6 | x x x x x x x x x x 3.6 4.5 16.6 13.8 25.5 13.4 15.5 4.0 3.1 x x x x x x x x x x x x | 21.94 Un | 123.5 | x x x x x 1.6 2.8 13.2 13.7 29.8 15.6 17.7 3.7 2.0 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x | 17.16 Cg | 44.4 | x x 22.3 17.5 28.4 14.3 11.6 3.6 1.8 0.3 0.1 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x | 11.95 Br | 44.0 | 14.3 13.1 31.5 17.2 15.9 5.0 2.5 0.4 0.1 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x | 10.35 Pr | 33.7 | 18.9 15.8 30.1 15.6 13.2 4.1 1.9 0.3 0.1 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x | 10.10 Bold is each team's most likely outcome. 0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times. x means the outcome never occurred.
Code:| Qu Ya Ha SL RP Da Ck Cr Un Cg Br Pr | BYE ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Qu | x x x x x x x x x x x | YES Ya | x x x x x x x 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 | 99.3 Ha | x x x x x x x 0.2 1.3 3.7 3.8 | 91.1 SL | x x x x x x x 0.8 8.8 16.2 16.4 | 57.7 RP | x x x x x 0.0 x 10.0 23.4 23.9 28.2 | 14.4 Da | x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7 18.4 21.5 22.2 | 30.0 Ck | x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.2 25.8 28.4 21.3 18.1 | 6.0 Cr | x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.1 49.3 19.4 12.9 11.0 | 1.6 Un | x x x x 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 | NO Cg | x x x x x x x x x x x | NO Br | x x x x x x x x x x x | NO Pr | x x x x x x x x x x x | NO Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
RPI Pep Band
GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!
2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place
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Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16
Originally posted by FlagDUDE08 View PostThe only bottom-four team that can possible get a first round home game is Union. Colgate cannot win a 2 or 3 way tiebreak involving Cornell (Union being the third, naturally).RPI Pep Band
GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!
2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place
Comment
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Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16
Mid-weekend update. SLU and Dartmouth (and to a lesser extent RPI) continue to fight for the final bye, but the rest is pretty much laid out. Union could still jump into a home-ice spot, but a loss to Quinnipiac would kill that dream.
Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 387,420,489 possibilities):- Quinnipiac
- Yale
- Harvard
- SLU
————— - Dartmouth
- RPI
- Cornell
- Clarkson
————— - Union
- Brown
- Colgate
- Princeton
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.
Rank and Points breakdown:Code:| KRACH | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Qu | 747.6 | 99.9 0.1 x x x x x x x x x x | 1.00 | 36.65 Ya | 376.6 | 0.1 94.6 5.1 0.1 x x x x x x x x | 2.05 | 30.85 Ha | 280.8 | x 5.1 75.7 14.5 3.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 x x x x | 3.20 | 28.13 SL | 174.5 | x 0.1 13.6 29.4 33.6 19.4 3.5 0.5 x x x x | 4.71 | 25.25 Da | 180.1 | x 0.0 4.7 46.3 24.5 17.2 5.2 2.0 x x x x | 4.78 | 25.13 RP | 168.9 | x x 0.9 7.5 26.1 38.5 19.9 7.1 0.0 x x x | 5.90 | 24.07 Cr | 178.3 | x x 0.0 1.6 9.3 15.8 36.7 30.4 6.2 x x x | 7.04 | 22.16 Ck | 137.9 | x x 0.0 0.6 2.9 8.0 32.8 54.2 1.5 x x x | 7.41 | 21.19 Un | 129.9 | x x x x x 0.0 1.9 5.8 91.4 0.8 0.0 x | 8.91 | 17.69 Br | 52.8 | x x x x x x x x 0.3 63.2 18.3 18.2 | 10.54 | 12.00 Cg | 43.6 | x x x x x x x x 0.6 29.6 62.7 7.2 | 10.76 | 11.43 Pr | 32.1 | x x x x x x x x x 6.4 19.0 74.6 | 11.68 | 9.47 | KRACH | 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 |AvgPts --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Qu | 747.6 | x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 0.2 0.8 5.5 9.7 29.5 20.0 34.3 | 36.65 Ya | 376.6 | x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 0.9 2.5 15.2 15.5 38.8 12.4 14.7 x x x x x | 30.85 Ha | 280.8 | x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 1.1 2.2 12.4 12.8 32.8 15.3 23.3 x x x x x x x x | 28.13 SL | 174.5 | x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 4.7 5.8 25.3 15.9 30.2 8.6 9.4 x x x x x x x x x x | 25.25 Da | 180.1 | x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 6.9 6.8 25.3 15.4 27.9 8.3 9.4 x x x x x x x x x x | 25.13 RP | 168.9 | x x x x x x x x x x x x 1.1 2.2 12.4 13.5 35.0 14.8 21.0 x x x x x x x x x x x x | 24.07 Cr | 178.3 | x x x x x x x x x x x 6.7 6.6 25.0 15.3 28.3 8.5 9.6 x x x x x x x x x x x x x | 22.16 Ck | 137.9 | x x x x x x x x x x x 18.0 13.0 32.4 14.0 16.7 3.5 2.5 x x x x x x x x x x x x x | 21.19 Un | 129.9 | x x x x x x x 8.0 8.6 33.8 16.9 24.7 4.9 3.0 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x | 17.69 Br | 52.8 | x x 17.6 13.7 38.8 14.7 12.7 2.0 0.6 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x | 12.00 Cg | 43.6 | x x 33.4 19.5 28.8 9.9 6.9 1.1 0.5 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x | 11.43 Pr | 32.1 | 31.2 18.8 31.3 10.6 6.7 1.0 0.3 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x | 9.47 Bold is each team's most likely outcome. 0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times. x means the outcome never occurred.
Code:| Qu Ya Ha SL Da RP Cr Ck Un Br Cg Pr | BYE ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Qu | x x x x x x x x x x x x | YES Ya | x x x x x x x x x x x x | YES Ha | x x x x x x x x 0.0 1.1 0.7 2.9 | 95.3 SL | x x x x x x x x 0.5 11.9 17.0 27.6 | 43.1 Da | x x x x x x x x 2.1 11.0 14.4 21.6 | 51.0 RP | x x x x x x x 0.0 7.2 22.9 31.7 29.8 | 8.4 Cr | x x x x x 0.0 x 0.5 30.0 28.8 20.6 12.3 | 1.6 Ck | x x x x x 0.0 1.4 x 52.5 22.9 15.3 5.8 | 0.6 Un | x x x x x 0.0 4.8 1.0 x 1.4 0.4 0.2 | NO Br | x x x x x x x x x x x x | NO Cg | x x x x x x x x x x x x | NO Pr | x x x x x x x x x x x x | NO Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
RPI Pep Band
GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!
2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place
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Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16
One week left! Note that what you see below is no longer a Monte Carlo simulation, but an exhaustive trip through all 531,441 ways the final twelve games of the ECAC season could play out. There is still some fun to see at the borderlines, as SLU, RPI, and Dartmouth will take their fight for the final bye to the end. Union still has a shot to overtake Clarkson and earn home-ice advantage in the first round, but pretty much everything else is just seeding.
Simulated Final Standings (EXAUSTIVE SEARCH of 531,441 possibilities):- Quinnipiac
- Yale
- Harvard
- SLU
————— - RPI
- Dartmouth
- Cornell
- Clarkson
————— - Union
- Brown
- Colgate
- Princeton
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.
Rank and Points breakdown:Code:| KRACH | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Qu | 699.2 | 98.4 1.6 x x x x x x x x x x | 1.02 | 35.97 Ya | 404.8 | 1.6 97.3 1.1 x x x x x x x x x | 2.00 | 31.51 Ha | 291.2 | x 1.1 92.1 5.4 1.4 x x x x x x x | 3.07 | 28.55 SL | 166.9 | x x 5.9 40.2 21.1 25.5 7.0 0.3 x x x x | 4.88 | 24.77 RP | 173.3 | x x 0.9 18.4 33.5 23.2 22.0 2.0 x x x x | 5.53 | 24.46 Da | 166.4 | x x x 32.2 22.3 29.8 12.6 3.1 x x x x | 5.32 | 24.09 Cr | 195.9 | x x x 3.7 21.4 17.2 45.6 12.1 x x x x | 6.41 | 23.21 Ck | 134.2 | x x x x 0.4 4.2 12.9 75.9 6.6 x x x | 7.84 | 20.59 Un | 136.4 | x x x x x x x 6.6 93.4 x x x | 8.93 | 18.29 Br | 56.0 | x x x x x x x x x 84.4 13.1 2.5 | 10.18 | 12.51 Cg | 43.7 | x x x x x x x x x 12.9 83.6 3.5 | 10.91 | 11.04 Pr | 31.4 | x x x x x x x x x 2.7 3.3 94.0 | 11.91 | 9.02 | KRACH | 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 |AvgPts --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Qu | 699.2 | x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 2.0 5.1 30.8 18.2 43.9 | 35.97 Ya | 404.8 | x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 3.4 8.2 47.8 15.1 25.5 x x x x | 31.51 Ha | 291.2 | x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 8.6 7.9 35.5 15.4 32.6 x x x x x x x | 28.55 SL | 166.9 | x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 23.8 13.2 39.3 10.1 13.7 x x x x x x x x x x | 24.77 RP | 173.3 | x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 8.0 8.5 40.6 14.8 28.1 x x x x x x x x x x x | 24.46 Da | 166.4 | x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 16.7 11.0 39.3 12.3 20.7 x x x x x x x x x x x | 24.09 Cr | 195.9 | x x x x x x x x x x x x x 14.4 10.2 38.9 13.0 23.4 x x x x x x x x x x x x | 23.21 Ck | 134.2 | x x x x x x x x x x x 28.4 14.4 37.8 8.9 10.5 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x | 20.59 Un | 136.4 | x x x x x x x x 10.7 9.7 42.7 13.6 23.3 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x | 18.29 Br | 56.0 | x x x 24.9 15.0 48.2 8.3 3.6 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x | 12.51 Cg | 43.7 | x x 45.3 18.1 27.7 5.2 3.7 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x | 11.04 Pr | 31.4 | 44.5 18.3 30.3 5.0 1.9 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x | 9.02 Bold is each team's most likely outcome. 0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times. x means the outcome never occurred.
Code:| Qu Ya Ha SL RP Da Cr Ck Un Br Cg Pr | BYE ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Qu | x x x x x x x x x x x | YES Ya | x x x x x x x x x x x | YES Ha | x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.1 1.3 | 98.6 SL | x x x x x x x 0.3 9.9 22.8 20.9 | 46.1 RP | x x x x x x x 2.0 21.2 24.9 32.6 | 19.3 Da | x x x x x x x 3.1 15.1 27.3 22.3 | 32.2 Cr | x x x x x x x 12.1 42.4 19.8 22.0 | 3.7 Ck | x x x x x x x 75.9 11.4 5.2 0.9 | NO Un | x x x x x x x 6.6 x x x | NO Br | x x x x x x x x x x x | NO Cg | x x x x x x x x x x x | NO Pr | x x x x x x x x x x x | NO Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
RPI Pep Band
GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!
2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place
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Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16
At least 24 points are needed for the bye, because SLU and Dartmouth play each other, and one will get to at least 24. Since lugnut already did the points breakdown, here's the other important stuff:
Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
BRN: @QU, @PU
CCT: HVD, DC
COL: RPI, UC
COR: UC, RPI
DC: @SLU, @CCT
HVD: @CCT, @SLU
PU: YAL, BRN
QU: BRN, YAL
RPI: @COL, @COR
SLU: DC, HVD
UC: @COR, @COL
YAL: @PU, @QU
Tie-breaks (SWEEP, 3pts, 2PTS with game to play, 1pts with game to play):Code:BRN: col, uc, CCT: HVD, rpi, COL: PU, rpi, UC, COR: brn, COL, PU, uc, DC: BRN, CCT, COL, PU, RPI, SLU, HVD: BRN, COL, cor, DC, PU, SLU, uc, PU: BRN, YAL QU: BRN, cct, COL, cor, DC, HVD, PU, rpi, uc, YAL RPI: brn, col, COR, hvd, pu, UC, SLU: brn, COL, PU, qu, uc, UC: cor, DC, pu, YAL: BRN, cct, COL, cor, DC, hvd, SLU,
Head-2-Head, Number of Wins, Record v Top4, Record v Top8
Comment
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Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16
Originally posted by lugnut92 View PostOne week left! Note that what you see below is no longer a Monte Carlo simulation, but an exhaustive trip through all 531,441 ways the final twelve games of the ECAC season could play out. There is still some fun to see at the borderlines, as SLU, RPI, and Dartmouth will take their fight for the final bye to the end. Union still has a shot to overtake Clarkson and earn home-ice advantage in the first round, but pretty much everything else is just seeding.
Simulated Final Standings (EXAUSTIVE SEARCH of 531,441 possibilities):- Quinnipiac
- Yale
- Harvard
- SLU
————— - RPI
- Dartmouth
- Cornell
- Clarkson
————— - Union
- Brown
- Colgate
- Princeton
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.
Rank and Points breakdown:Code:| KRACH | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Qu | 699.2 | 98.4 1.6 x x x x x x x x x x | 1.02 | 35.97 Ya | 404.8 | 1.6 97.3 1.1 x x x x x x x x x | 2.00 | 31.51 Ha | 291.2 | x 1.1 92.1 5.4 1.4 x x x x x x x | 3.07 | 28.55 SL | 166.9 | x x 5.9 40.2 21.1 25.5 7.0 0.3 x x x x | 4.88 | 24.77 RP | 173.3 | x x 0.9 18.4 33.5 23.2 22.0 2.0 x x x x | 5.53 | 24.46 Da | 166.4 | x x x 32.2 22.3 29.8 12.6 3.1 x x x x | 5.32 | 24.09 Cr | 195.9 | x x x 3.7 21.4 17.2 45.6 12.1 x x x x | 6.41 | 23.21 Ck | 134.2 | x x x x 0.4 4.2 12.9 75.9 6.6 x x x | 7.84 | 20.59 Un | 136.4 | x x x x x x x 6.6 93.4 x x x | 8.93 | 18.29 Br | 56.0 | x x x x x x x x x 84.4 13.1 2.5 | 10.18 | 12.51 Cg | 43.7 | x x x x x x x x x 12.9 83.6 3.5 | 10.91 | 11.04 Pr | 31.4 | x x x x x x x x x 2.7 3.3 94.0 | 11.91 | 9.02 | KRACH | 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 |AvgPts --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Qu | 699.2 | x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 2.0 5.1 30.8 18.2 43.9 | 35.97 Ya | 404.8 | x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 3.4 8.2 47.8 15.1 25.5 x x x x | 31.51 Ha | 291.2 | x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 8.6 7.9 35.5 15.4 32.6 x x x x x x x | 28.55 SL | 166.9 | x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 23.8 13.2 39.3 10.1 13.7 x x x x x x x x x x | 24.77 RP | 173.3 | x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 8.0 8.5 40.6 14.8 28.1 x x x x x x x x x x x | 24.46 Da | 166.4 | x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 16.7 11.0 39.3 12.3 20.7 x x x x x x x x x x x | 24.09 Cr | 195.9 | x x x x x x x x x x x x x 14.4 10.2 38.9 13.0 23.4 x x x x x x x x x x x x | 23.21 Ck | 134.2 | x x x x x x x x x x x 28.4 14.4 37.8 8.9 10.5 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x | 20.59 Un | 136.4 | x x x x x x x x 10.7 9.7 42.7 13.6 23.3 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x | 18.29 Br | 56.0 | x x x 24.9 15.0 48.2 8.3 3.6 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x | 12.51 Cg | 43.7 | x x 45.3 18.1 27.7 5.2 3.7 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x | 11.04 Pr | 31.4 | 44.5 18.3 30.3 5.0 1.9 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x | 9.02 Bold is each team's most likely outcome. 0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times. x means the outcome never occurred.
Code:| Qu Ya Ha SL RP Da Cr Ck Un Br Cg Pr | BYE ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Qu | x x x x x x x x x x x | YES Ya | x x x x x x x x x x x | YES Ha | x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.1 1.3 | 98.6 SL | x x x x x x x 0.3 9.9 22.8 20.9 | 46.1 RP | x x x x x x x 2.0 21.2 24.9 32.6 | 19.3 Da | x x x x x x x 3.1 15.1 27.3 22.3 | 32.2 Cr | x x x x x x x 12.1 42.4 19.8 22.0 | 3.7 Ck | x x x x x x x 75.9 11.4 5.2 0.9 | NO Un | x x x x x x x 6.6 x x x | NO Br | x x x x x x x x x x x | NO Cg | x x x x x x x x x x x | NO Pr | x x x x x x x x x x x | NO Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
Last edited by DeepRed72; 02-22-2016, 01:10 PM."Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts" - Daniel Patrick Moynihan
Comment
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Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16
Originally posted by DeepRed72 View PostI did attempt a Monte Carlo and my numbers agree fairly well with yours. I think the main source of variance between the two is due to the assumption of the frequency of ties. I used 18.3% (22/120) because that is this year's empirical data to date, but I do offer that is probably historically high. That said, I show a slightly greater chance of attaining a first round bye, 22.5% to your 19.3%. And my output reveals that should we win both games this weekend we have approximately a 64% chance of getting the bye. A win and a tie, 25 points, get us the bye only 19% of the time. A 1-1 split gives us no chance at a bye, but that is easily determined by inspection as either Dartmouth or St. Lawrence, who play each other, have to finish with at least 24 points (as Flaggy has pointed out) and we would lose all tie-breakers for that fourth spot. On the other end of the spectrum you show a 2.0% chance of finishing 8th whereas I get 1.1%.RPI Pep Band
GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!
2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place
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Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16
Originally posted by lugnut92 View PostI use 13.45% for ties because that's the average rate over the last few seasons. I actually did a normal Monte Carlo sim too, and failed to see Yale overtake Quinnipiac even once (in 1.5 million sims) despite the exhaustive search showing it as ~1.6% to occur. There's obviously something a bit off in the sim because the odds of that happening with a true RNG are inconceivably low (like, winning every powerball drawing for the next 12.5 years low).
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Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16
Originally posted by Ralph Baer View PostIt has seemed that there is something wrong with your algorithm since the first year which you posted results. 1,500,000 simulations should get something with a probability of 1.6% about 24,000 times (not being concerned about whether a lot or almost no ties are necessary for Yale to be #1) -- but you know that.RPI Pep Band
GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!
2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place
Comment
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Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16
Originally posted by lugnut92 View PostI use 13.45% for ties because that's the average rate over the last few seasons. I actually did a normal Monte Carlo sim too, and failed to see Yale overtake Quinnipiac even once (in 1.5 million sims) despite the exhaustive search showing it as ~1.6% to occur. There's obviously something a bit off in the sim because the odds of that happening with a true RNG are inconceivably low (like, winning every powerball drawing for the next 12.5 years low).
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Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16
Found it.
"wins[op] + 1" is not the same as "wins[op] += 1"RPI Pep Band
GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!
2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place
Comment
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Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16
Originally posted by yaledoc View PostI am no mathematician (though I was darn good at math back in the day), but I am puzzled as to why you feel Yale overtaking Q requires what amounts to a miracle !!!RPI Pep Band
GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!
2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place
Comment
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Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16
Originally posted by lugnut92 View PostFound it.
"wins[op] + 1" is not the same as "wins[op] += 1"
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