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ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

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  • #46
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

    Originally posted by lugnut92 View Post
    Yes. If they lose out, they can fall to fifth alone. It's possible they can end up out of the byes even if they earn another point, but it would involve tiebreakers.

    EDIT: Playing with the Sioux Sports what-if machine, we can still have a seven-way tie for 2nd at 23 points. Fun!
    Thank you!

    Comment


    • #47
      Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

      108 games down, 24 to go, as both remaining weekend have full 12-game slates. Quinnipiac has the bye sewn up and has all but clinched the Cleary as well. Yale and Harvard look to have definite byes as well, but both could slip as low as eighth. There appears to be a three-way dogfight for the final bye, with SLU having a major advantage over Dartmouth and RPI. Finally, it looks like the four traveling teams in the first round are set, though Union could make it out with a strong finish (and help).

      Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 282,429,536,481 possibilities):
      1. Quinnipiac
      2. Yale
      3. Harvard
      4. SLU
        —————
      5. RPI
      6. Dartmouth
      7. Clarkson
      8. Cornell
        —————
      9. Union
      10. Colgate
      11. Brown
      12. Princeton

      Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

      Rank and Points breakdown:
      Code:
         |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
      -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Qu |  701.2 |  99.5   0.5   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.01 | 36.19
      Ya |  344.1 |   0.5  78.1  17.3   3.4   0.6   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x |  2.26 | 30.02
      Ha |  279.8 |   0.0  16.1  58.7  16.3   5.7   2.4   0.7   0.1     x     x     x     x |  3.22 | 28.28
      SL |  179.7 |   0.0   4.8  16.5  36.3  23.8  13.7   4.2   0.7     x     x     x     x |  4.40 | 26.09
      RP |  169.8 |     x   0.1   2.6  11.6  26.6  30.1  19.1   9.8   0.0     x     x     x |  5.81 | 24.55
      Da |  167.9 |     x   0.1   3.5  26.4  25.6  22.6  14.2   7.5   0.1     x     x     x |  5.40 | 24.50
      Ck |  154.8 |     x   0.1   1.4   4.5  11.7  18.8  37.3  26.0   0.2     x     x     x |  6.65 | 22.87
      Cr |  170.6 |     x   0.0   0.1   1.5   6.2  12.2  24.2  49.9   5.9     x     x     x |  7.32 | 21.94
      Un |  123.5 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.3   5.9  89.4   4.1   0.4   0.0 |  8.98 | 17.16
      Cg |   44.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   3.8  59.3  31.6   5.3 | 10.38 | 11.95
      Br |   44.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.2  24.2  27.3  48.2 | 11.24 | 10.35
      Pr |   33.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.4  12.4  40.7  46.5 | 11.33 | 10.10
      
         |  KRACH |     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38 |AvgPts
      ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Qu |  701.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.2   1.1   2.9   9.9  14.0  29.0  18.7  24.2 | 36.19
      Ya |  344.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.4   1.0   6.2   8.7  23.2  17.5  27.0   8.5   7.6     x     x     x     x     x | 30.02
      Ha |  279.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.4   1.0   5.4   7.4  19.7  16.4  26.9  10.9  11.9     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 28.28
      SL |  179.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   2.1   3.5  15.4  13.8  27.1  14.3  16.6   4.2   3.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 26.09
      RP |  169.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.8   1.7   9.2  11.4  28.1  17.2  22.7   5.4   3.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.55
      Da |  167.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.5   2.5  11.4  11.6  25.2  15.4  20.7   6.3   5.5     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.50
      Ck |  154.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   2.9   4.2  17.7  14.8  27.2  13.3  14.3   3.4   2.3     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.87
      Cr |  170.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   3.6   4.5  16.6  13.8  25.5  13.4  15.5   4.0   3.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 21.94
      Un |  123.5 |     x     x     x     x     x   1.6   2.8  13.2  13.7  29.8  15.6  17.7   3.7   2.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.16
      Cg |   44.4 |     x     x  22.3  17.5  28.4  14.3  11.6   3.6   1.8   0.3   0.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 11.95
      Br |   44.0 |  14.3  13.1  31.5  17.2  15.9   5.0   2.5   0.4   0.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 10.35
      Pr |   33.7 |  18.9  15.8  30.1  15.6  13.2   4.1   1.9   0.3   0.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 10.10
      
      Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
      0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
      x means the outcome never occurred.
      Playoff Matchups:
      Code:
         |    Qu    Ya    Ha    SL    RP    Da    Ck    Cr    Un    Cg    Br    Pr |   BYE
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Qu |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   YES
      Ya |     x           x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.2 |  99.3
      Ha |     x     x           x     x     x     x     x   0.2   1.3   3.7   3.8 |  91.1
      SL |     x     x     x           x     x     x     x   0.8   8.8  16.2  16.4 |  57.7
      RP |     x     x     x     x           x   0.0     x  10.0  23.4  23.9  28.2 |  14.4
      Da |     x     x     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.0   7.7  18.4  21.5  22.2 |  30.0
      Ck |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0         0.2  25.8  28.4  21.3  18.1 |   6.0
      Cr |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1        49.3  19.4  12.9  11.0 |   1.6
      Un |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.1   5.6         0.1   0.1   0.0 |    NO
      Cg |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x           x     x |    NO
      Br |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x           x |    NO
      Pr |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x       |    NO
      
      Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
      RPI Pep Band
      GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
      🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

      2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
      2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
      2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

      Comment


      • #48
        Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

        The only bottom-four team that can possible get a first round home game is Union. Colgate cannot win a 2 or 3 way tiebreak involving Cornell (Union being the third, naturally).

        Comment


        • #49
          Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

          Originally posted by FlagDUDE08 View Post
          The only bottom-four team that can possible get a first round home game is Union. Colgate cannot win a 2 or 3 way tiebreak involving Cornell (Union being the third, naturally).
          That's what I said, isn't it?
          RPI Pep Band
          GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
          🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

          2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
          2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
          2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

          Comment


          • #50
            Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

            Mid-weekend update. SLU and Dartmouth (and to a lesser extent RPI) continue to fight for the final bye, but the rest is pretty much laid out. Union could still jump into a home-ice spot, but a loss to Quinnipiac would kill that dream.

            Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 387,420,489 possibilities):
            1. Quinnipiac
            2. Yale
            3. Harvard
            4. SLU
              —————
            5. Dartmouth
            6. RPI
            7. Cornell
            8. Clarkson
              —————
            9. Union
            10. Brown
            11. Colgate
            12. Princeton

            Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

            Rank and Points breakdown:
            Code:
               |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
            -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            Qu |  747.6 |  99.9   0.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.00 | 36.65
            Ya |  376.6 |   0.1  94.6   5.1   0.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.05 | 30.85
            Ha |  280.8 |     x   5.1  75.7  14.5   3.5   1.1   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x |  3.20 | 28.13
            SL |  174.5 |     x   0.1  13.6  29.4  33.6  19.4   3.5   0.5     x     x     x     x |  4.71 | 25.25
            Da |  180.1 |     x   0.0   4.7  46.3  24.5  17.2   5.2   2.0     x     x     x     x |  4.78 | 25.13
            RP |  168.9 |     x     x   0.9   7.5  26.1  38.5  19.9   7.1   0.0     x     x     x |  5.90 | 24.07
            Cr |  178.3 |     x     x   0.0   1.6   9.3  15.8  36.7  30.4   6.2     x     x     x |  7.04 | 22.16
            Ck |  137.9 |     x     x   0.0   0.6   2.9   8.0  32.8  54.2   1.5     x     x     x |  7.41 | 21.19
            Un |  129.9 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   1.9   5.8  91.4   0.8   0.0     x |  8.91 | 17.69
            Br |   52.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.3  63.2  18.3  18.2 | 10.54 | 12.00
            Cg |   43.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.6  29.6  62.7   7.2 | 10.76 | 11.43
            Pr |   32.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   6.4  19.0  74.6 | 11.68 |  9.47
            
               |  KRACH |     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38 |AvgPts
            ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            Qu |  747.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.8   5.5   9.7  29.5  20.0  34.3 | 36.65
            Ya |  376.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.9   2.5  15.2  15.5  38.8  12.4  14.7     x     x     x     x     x | 30.85
            Ha |  280.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.1   2.2  12.4  12.8  32.8  15.3  23.3     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 28.13
            SL |  174.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   4.7   5.8  25.3  15.9  30.2   8.6   9.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 25.25
            Da |  180.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   6.9   6.8  25.3  15.4  27.9   8.3   9.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 25.13
            RP |  168.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.1   2.2  12.4  13.5  35.0  14.8  21.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.07
            Cr |  178.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   6.7   6.6  25.0  15.3  28.3   8.5   9.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.16
            Ck |  137.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  18.0  13.0  32.4  14.0  16.7   3.5   2.5     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 21.19
            Un |  129.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   8.0   8.6  33.8  16.9  24.7   4.9   3.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.69
            Br |   52.8 |     x     x  17.6  13.7  38.8  14.7  12.7   2.0   0.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.00
            Cg |   43.6 |     x     x  33.4  19.5  28.8   9.9   6.9   1.1   0.5     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 11.43
            Pr |   32.1 |  31.2  18.8  31.3  10.6   6.7   1.0   0.3     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.47
            
            Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
            0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
            x means the outcome never occurred.
            Playoff Matchups:
            Code:
               |    Qu    Ya    Ha    SL    Da    RP    Cr    Ck    Un    Br    Cg    Pr |   BYE
            ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            Qu |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   YES
            Ya |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   YES
            Ha |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   1.1   0.7   2.9 |  95.3
            SL |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.5  11.9  17.0  27.6 |  43.1
            Da |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   2.1  11.0  14.4  21.6 |  51.0
            RP |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   7.2  22.9  31.7  29.8 |   8.4
            Cr |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.5  30.0  28.8  20.6  12.3 |   1.6
            Ck |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   1.4     x  52.5  22.9  15.3   5.8 |   0.6
            Un |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   4.8   1.0     x   1.4   0.4   0.2 |    NO
            Br |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |    NO
            Cg |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |    NO
            Pr |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |    NO
            
            Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
            RPI Pep Band
            GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
            🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

            2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
            2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
            2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

            Comment


            • #51
              Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

              One week left! Note that what you see below is no longer a Monte Carlo simulation, but an exhaustive trip through all 531,441 ways the final twelve games of the ECAC season could play out. There is still some fun to see at the borderlines, as SLU, RPI, and Dartmouth will take their fight for the final bye to the end. Union still has a shot to overtake Clarkson and earn home-ice advantage in the first round, but pretty much everything else is just seeding.

              Simulated Final Standings (EXAUSTIVE SEARCH of 531,441 possibilities):
              1. Quinnipiac
              2. Yale
              3. Harvard
              4. SLU
                —————
              5. RPI
              6. Dartmouth
              7. Cornell
              8. Clarkson
                —————
              9. Union
              10. Brown
              11. Colgate
              12. Princeton

              Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

              Rank and Points breakdown:
              Code:
                 |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
              -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Qu |  699.2 |  98.4   1.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.02 | 35.97
              Ya |  404.8 |   1.6  97.3   1.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.00 | 31.51
              Ha |  291.2 |     x   1.1  92.1   5.4   1.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  3.07 | 28.55
              SL |  166.9 |     x     x   5.9  40.2  21.1  25.5   7.0   0.3     x     x     x     x |  4.88 | 24.77
              RP |  173.3 |     x     x   0.9  18.4  33.5  23.2  22.0   2.0     x     x     x     x |  5.53 | 24.46
              Da |  166.4 |     x     x     x  32.2  22.3  29.8  12.6   3.1     x     x     x     x |  5.32 | 24.09
              Cr |  195.9 |     x     x     x   3.7  21.4  17.2  45.6  12.1     x     x     x     x |  6.41 | 23.21
              Ck |  134.2 |     x     x     x     x   0.4   4.2  12.9  75.9   6.6     x     x     x |  7.84 | 20.59
              Un |  136.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   6.6  93.4     x     x     x |  8.93 | 18.29
              Br |   56.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  84.4  13.1   2.5 | 10.18 | 12.51
              Cg |   43.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  12.9  83.6   3.5 | 10.91 | 11.04
              Pr |   31.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   2.7   3.3  94.0 | 11.91 |  9.02
              
                 |  KRACH |     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37 |AvgPts
              ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Qu |  699.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   2.0   5.1  30.8  18.2  43.9 | 35.97
              Ya |  404.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   3.4   8.2  47.8  15.1  25.5     x     x     x     x | 31.51
              Ha |  291.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   8.6   7.9  35.5  15.4  32.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 28.55
              SL |  166.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  23.8  13.2  39.3  10.1  13.7     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.77
              RP |  173.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   8.0   8.5  40.6  14.8  28.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.46
              Da |  166.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  16.7  11.0  39.3  12.3  20.7     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.09
              Cr |  195.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  14.4  10.2  38.9  13.0  23.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 23.21
              Ck |  134.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  28.4  14.4  37.8   8.9  10.5     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.59
              Un |  136.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  10.7   9.7  42.7  13.6  23.3     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.29
              Br |   56.0 |     x     x     x  24.9  15.0  48.2   8.3   3.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.51
              Cg |   43.7 |     x     x  45.3  18.1  27.7   5.2   3.7     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 11.04
              Pr |   31.4 |  44.5  18.3  30.3   5.0   1.9     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.02
              
              Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
              0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
              x means the outcome never occurred.
              Playoff Matchups:
              Code:
                 |    Qu    Ya    Ha    SL    RP    Da    Cr    Ck    Un    Br    Cg    Pr |   BYE
              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Qu |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   YES
              Ya |     x           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   YES
              Ha |     x     x           x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   1.3 |  98.6
              SL |     x     x     x           x     x     x     x   0.3   9.9  22.8  20.9 |  46.1
              RP |     x     x     x     x           x     x     x   2.0  21.2  24.9  32.6 |  19.3
              Da |     x     x     x     x     x           x     x   3.1  15.1  27.3  22.3 |  32.2
              Cr |     x     x     x     x     x     x           x  12.1  42.4  19.8  22.0 |   3.7
              Ck |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x        75.9  11.4   5.2   0.9 |    NO
              Un |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   6.6           x     x     x |    NO
              Br |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x           x     x |    NO
              Cg |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x           x |    NO
              Pr |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x       |    NO
              
              Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
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              GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
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              Comment


              • #52
                Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

                At least 24 points are needed for the bye, because SLU and Dartmouth play each other, and one will get to at least 24. Since lugnut already did the points breakdown, here's the other important stuff:

                Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
                BRN: @QU, @PU
                CCT: HVD, DC
                COL: RPI, UC
                COR: UC, RPI
                DC: @SLU, @CCT
                HVD: @CCT, @SLU
                PU: YAL, BRN
                QU: BRN, YAL
                RPI: @COL, @COR
                SLU: DC, HVD
                UC: @COR, @COL
                YAL: @PU, @QU

                Tie-breaks (SWEEP, 3pts, 2PTS with game to play, 1pts with game to play):
                Code:
                BRN:           col,                                     uc,        
                CCT:                          HVD,           rpi,                  
                COL:                                PU,      rpi,       UC,        
                COR: brn,      COL,                 PU,                 uc,        
                 DC: BRN, CCT, COL,                 PU,      RPI, SLU,             
                HVD: BRN,      COL, cor,  DC,       PU,           SLU,  uc,        
                 PU: BRN,                                                   YAL 
                 QU: BRN, cct, COL, cor,  DC, HVD,  PU,      rpi,       uc, YAL 
                RPI: brn,      col, COR,      hvd,  pu,                 UC,        
                SLU: brn,      COL,                 PU,  qu,            uc,        
                 UC:                cor,  DC,       pu,                            
                YAL: BRN, cct, COL, cor,  DC, hvd,                SLU,
                Tiebreak Procedure:
                Head-2-Head, Number of Wins, Record v Top4, Record v Top8

                Comment


                • #53
                  Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

                  Originally posted by lugnut92 View Post
                  One week left! Note that what you see below is no longer a Monte Carlo simulation, but an exhaustive trip through all 531,441 ways the final twelve games of the ECAC season could play out. There is still some fun to see at the borderlines, as SLU, RPI, and Dartmouth will take their fight for the final bye to the end. Union still has a shot to overtake Clarkson and earn home-ice advantage in the first round, but pretty much everything else is just seeding.

                  Simulated Final Standings (EXAUSTIVE SEARCH of 531,441 possibilities):
                  1. Quinnipiac
                  2. Yale
                  3. Harvard
                  4. SLU
                    —————
                  5. RPI
                  6. Dartmouth
                  7. Cornell
                  8. Clarkson
                    —————
                  9. Union
                  10. Brown
                  11. Colgate
                  12. Princeton

                  Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

                  Rank and Points breakdown:
                  Code:
                     |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
                  -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Qu |  699.2 |  98.4   1.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.02 | 35.97
                  Ya |  404.8 |   1.6  97.3   1.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.00 | 31.51
                  Ha |  291.2 |     x   1.1  92.1   5.4   1.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  3.07 | 28.55
                  SL |  166.9 |     x     x   5.9  40.2  21.1  25.5   7.0   0.3     x     x     x     x |  4.88 | 24.77
                  RP |  173.3 |     x     x   0.9  18.4  33.5  23.2  22.0   2.0     x     x     x     x |  5.53 | 24.46
                  Da |  166.4 |     x     x     x  32.2  22.3  29.8  12.6   3.1     x     x     x     x |  5.32 | 24.09
                  Cr |  195.9 |     x     x     x   3.7  21.4  17.2  45.6  12.1     x     x     x     x |  6.41 | 23.21
                  Ck |  134.2 |     x     x     x     x   0.4   4.2  12.9  75.9   6.6     x     x     x |  7.84 | 20.59
                  Un |  136.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   6.6  93.4     x     x     x |  8.93 | 18.29
                  Br |   56.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  84.4  13.1   2.5 | 10.18 | 12.51
                  Cg |   43.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  12.9  83.6   3.5 | 10.91 | 11.04
                  Pr |   31.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   2.7   3.3  94.0 | 11.91 |  9.02
                  
                     |  KRACH |     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37 |AvgPts
                  ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Qu |  699.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   2.0   5.1  30.8  18.2  43.9 | 35.97
                  Ya |  404.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   3.4   8.2  47.8  15.1  25.5     x     x     x     x | 31.51
                  Ha |  291.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   8.6   7.9  35.5  15.4  32.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 28.55
                  SL |  166.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  23.8  13.2  39.3  10.1  13.7     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.77
                  RP |  173.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   8.0   8.5  40.6  14.8  28.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.46
                  Da |  166.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  16.7  11.0  39.3  12.3  20.7     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.09
                  Cr |  195.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  14.4  10.2  38.9  13.0  23.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 23.21
                  Ck |  134.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  28.4  14.4  37.8   8.9  10.5     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.59
                  Un |  136.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  10.7   9.7  42.7  13.6  23.3     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.29
                  Br |   56.0 |     x     x     x  24.9  15.0  48.2   8.3   3.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.51
                  Cg |   43.7 |     x     x  45.3  18.1  27.7   5.2   3.7     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 11.04
                  Pr |   31.4 |  44.5  18.3  30.3   5.0   1.9     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.02
                  
                  Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
                  0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
                  x means the outcome never occurred.
                  Playoff Matchups:
                  Code:
                     |    Qu    Ya    Ha    SL    RP    Da    Cr    Ck    Un    Br    Cg    Pr |   BYE
                  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Qu |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   YES
                  Ya |     x           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   YES
                  Ha |     x     x           x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   1.3 |  98.6
                  SL |     x     x     x           x     x     x     x   0.3   9.9  22.8  20.9 |  46.1
                  RP |     x     x     x     x           x     x     x   2.0  21.2  24.9  32.6 |  19.3
                  Da |     x     x     x     x     x           x     x   3.1  15.1  27.3  22.3 |  32.2
                  Cr |     x     x     x     x     x     x           x  12.1  42.4  19.8  22.0 |   3.7
                  Ck |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x        75.9  11.4   5.2   0.9 |    NO
                  Un |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   6.6           x     x     x |    NO
                  Br |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x           x     x |    NO
                  Cg |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x           x |    NO
                  Pr |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x       |    NO
                  
                  Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
                  I did attempt a Monte Carlo and my numbers agree fairly well with yours. I think the main source of variance between the two is due to the assumption of the frequency of ties. I used 18.3% (22/120) because that is this year's empirical data to date, but I do offer that is probably historically high. That said, I show a slightly greater chance of attaining a first round bye, 22.5% to your 19.3%. And my output reveals that should we win both games this weekend we have approximately a 64% chance of getting the bye. A win and a tie, 25 points, get us the bye only 19% of the time. A 1-1 split gives us no chance at a bye, but that is easily determined by inspection as either Dartmouth or St. Lawrence, who play each other, have to finish with at least 24 points (as Flaggy has pointed out) and we would lose all tie-breakers for that fourth spot. On the other end of the spectrum you show a 2.0% chance of finishing 8th whereas I get 1.1%.
                  Last edited by DeepRed72; 02-22-2016, 01:10 PM.
                  "Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts" - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

                    Originally posted by DeepRed72 View Post
                    I did attempt a Monte Carlo and my numbers agree fairly well with yours. I think the main source of variance between the two is due to the assumption of the frequency of ties. I used 18.3% (22/120) because that is this year's empirical data to date, but I do offer that is probably historically high. That said, I show a slightly greater chance of attaining a first round bye, 22.5% to your 19.3%. And my output reveals that should we win both games this weekend we have approximately a 64% chance of getting the bye. A win and a tie, 25 points, get us the bye only 19% of the time. A 1-1 split gives us no chance at a bye, but that is easily determined by inspection as either Dartmouth or St. Lawrence, who play each other, have to finish with at least 24 points (as Flaggy has pointed out) and we would lose all tie-breakers for that fourth spot. On the other end of the spectrum you show a 2.0% chance of finishing 8th whereas I get 1.1%.
                    I use 13.45% for ties because that's the average rate over the last few seasons. I actually did a normal Monte Carlo sim too, and failed to see Yale overtake Quinnipiac even once (in 1.5 million sims) despite the exhaustive search showing it as ~1.6% to occur. There's obviously something a bit off in the sim because the odds of that happening with a true RNG are inconceivably low (like, winning every powerball drawing for the next 12.5 years low).
                    RPI Pep Band
                    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

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                    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                    2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

                    Comment


                    • #55
                      Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

                      Originally posted by lugnut92 View Post
                      I use 13.45% for ties because that's the average rate over the last few seasons. I actually did a normal Monte Carlo sim too, and failed to see Yale overtake Quinnipiac even once (in 1.5 million sims) despite the exhaustive search showing it as ~1.6% to occur. There's obviously something a bit off in the sim because the odds of that happening with a true RNG are inconceivably low (like, winning every powerball drawing for the next 12.5 years low).
                      It has seemed that there is something wrong with your algorithm since the first year which you posted results. 1,500,000 simulations should get something with a probability of 1.6% about 24,000 times (not being concerned about whether a lot or almost no ties are necessary for Yale to be #1) -- but you know that.
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                      Comment


                      • #56
                        Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

                        Originally posted by Ralph Baer View Post
                        It has seemed that there is something wrong with your algorithm since the first year which you posted results. 1,500,000 simulations should get something with a probability of 1.6% about 24,000 times (not being concerned about whether a lot or almost no ties are necessary for Yale to be #1) -- but you know that.
                        Yeah. It worked as intended when I manually put in the necessary results (Yale over Quinnipiac, Yale over Princeton, Brown over Quinnipiac) and in the exhaustive search, so it's not a tiebreaking thing. I have no idea why it didn't happen when games were played by RNG.
                        RPI Pep Band
                        GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                        🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

                        2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
                        2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                        2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

                        Comment


                        • #57
                          Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

                          Originally posted by lugnut92 View Post
                          I use 13.45% for ties because that's the average rate over the last few seasons. I actually did a normal Monte Carlo sim too, and failed to see Yale overtake Quinnipiac even once (in 1.5 million sims) despite the exhaustive search showing it as ~1.6% to occur. There's obviously something a bit off in the sim because the odds of that happening with a true RNG are inconceivably low (like, winning every powerball drawing for the next 12.5 years low).
                          I am no mathematician (though I was darn good at math back in the day), but I am puzzled as to why you feel Yale overtaking Q requires what amounts to a miracle !!!

                          Comment


                          • #58
                            Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

                            Found it.

                            "wins[op] + 1" is not the same as "wins[op] += 1"
                            RPI Pep Band
                            GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                            🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

                            2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
                            2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                            2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

                            Comment


                            • #59
                              Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

                              Originally posted by yaledoc View Post
                              I am no mathematician (though I was darn good at math back in the day), but I am puzzled as to why you feel Yale overtaking Q requires what amounts to a miracle !!!
                              I don't! You misunderstood me. I was saying that assuming that Yale takes #1 1.6% of the time, for them to come up empty in 1.5 million simulations is effectively impossible (approximately 1 in 10^10500). There was a problem in my code.
                              RPI Pep Band
                              GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                              🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

                              2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
                              2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                              2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

                              Comment


                              • #60
                                Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

                                Originally posted by lugnut92 View Post
                                Found it.

                                "wins[op] + 1" is not the same as "wins[op] += 1"
                                For those who still think that Fortran is the ultimate in programming languages, although I did eventually switch to Matlab, could you explain what those two statements signify?
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