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Fun With Numbers: 2016 Pairwise Predictor, What-Ifs, and Other Goodies

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  • #31
    Re: Fun With Numbers: 2016 Pairwise Predictor, What-Ifs, and Other Goodies

    I've been thinking about the strength of schedule question lately. RPI's SOS calculation seems to be extra crappy for some reason and I've been curious about why.

    College hockey calculates RPI in a different way than most sports. Most sports take Win%/OppWin%/OppOppWin% as a .25/.50/.25 split.

    Women's hockey not only has a different split at .30/.24/.46, but it emphasizes a different value entirely -- instead of putting the most weight on opponent's winning percentage like just about every sport, it puts the most weight on opponent's opponents' winning percentage.

    I'm not really sure why. OppOppWin% is the value that converges to 0.500 the quickest and seems borderline random. For example look at Duluth -- it doesn't take a calculator to tell that they have the toughest strength of schedule, and yet their OppOppWin% -- again, the biggest factor in calculating RPI -- is below .500!

    Which brings me to strength of schedule. Strength of schedule in RPI is calculated as the ratio of the last two numbers, which as we know is wildly different than in any other sport.

    Just for kicks, here is what the RPI would look like if women's hockey used a standard .25/.50/.25 split instead of what is used now:

    1) Wisconsin .7985
    2) BC .7819
    3) Minnesota .6854
    4) Bemidji State .6335
    5) Clarkson .6243
    6) Quinnipiac .6180
    7) Northeastern .5872
    8) Minnesota-Duluth .5894 !!!!!!!
    9) Harvard .5735
    10) St. Lawrence .5842
    11) Princeton .5720
    12) North Dakota .5551

    That is insane. Duluth's RPI goes from 18th in the country (.5048), and barely a TUC, all the way up to 8th!!! in the country at .5894. That is completely nuts.

    So the question is, why does women's hockey calculate its RPI so weirdly??

    And in case you were wondering, the SOS calculation would change to:

    1) Yale .6335
    2) UMD .6251
    3) SLU .5611
    4) BSU .5509
    5) Cornell .5487
    6) OSU .5463
    7) BC .5342
    ...
    13) Minnesota .5055
    ...
    28) Wisconsin .4868 (yikes)
    Last edited by TonyTheTiger20; 11-30-2015, 09:58 AM.
    Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
    Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
    Twitter: @Salzano14


    Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

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    • #32
      Re: Fun With Numbers: 2016 Pairwise Predictor, What-Ifs, and Other Goodies

      TTT, that is a very interesting analysis. One thing that jumps out to me is that all of the WCHA teams "benefit" in SOS by having played both UM and UW, while the Gophers and Badgers have not yet played each other, so their own SOS is skewed lower. It will be interesting to see how these numbers change after the UW-UM series, regardless of the outcome of that series.

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      • #33
        Re: Fun With Numbers: 2016 Pairwise Predictor, What-Ifs, and Other Goodies

        Originally posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
        Just for kicks, here is what the RPI would look like if women's hockey used a standard .25/.50/.25 split instead of what is used now:

        1) Wisconsin .7985
        2) BC .7819
        3) Minnesota .6854
        4) Bemidji State .6335
        5) Clarkson .6243
        6) Quinnipiac .6180
        7) Northeastern .5872
        8) Minnesota-Duluth .5894 !!!!!!!
        9) Harvard .5735
        10) St. Lawrence .5842
        11) Princeton .5720
        12) North Dakota .5551

        That is insane. Duluth's RPI goes from 18th in the country (.5048), and barely a TUC, all the way up to 8th!!! in the country at .5894. That is completely nuts.

        So the question is, why does women's hockey calculate its RPI so weirdly??

        And in case you were wondering, the SOS calculation would change to:

        1) Yale .6335
        2) UMD .6251
        3) SLU .5611
        4) BSU .5509
        5) Cornell .5487
        6) OSU .5463
        7) BC .5342
        ...
        13) Minnesota .5055
        ...
        28) Wisconsin .4868 (yikes)
        Better, but I don't know if still smells right. Yale being number one? They played Minnesota and Q...that's about it. UMD on the otherhand has played UW, BC, UMN, Harvard, UND and BSU. Some of the rest (such as Cornell, BC), could be under debate...but they're in the realm I guess.
        Go Gophers!

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        • #34
          Re: Fun With Numbers: 2016 Pairwise Predictor, What-Ifs, and Other Goodies

          Originally posted by 5mn_Major View Post
          Better, but I don't know if still smells right. Yale being number one? They played Minnesota and Q...that's about it. UMD on the otherhand has played UW, BC, UMN, Harvard, UND and BSU. Some of the rest (such as Cornell, BC), could be under debate...but they're in the realm I guess.
          Oh I don't think just going to a standard .25/.50/.25 split would really 'fix' RPI or RPI's strength of schedule. It's still broken. It's more of an illustration of how changing an arbitrary set of coefficients can so drastically change things -- which suggests that it's a pretty crap way of doing things haha

          Regardless, though, there is no doubt that Yale's strength of schedule belongs on the same level as UMD's right now.

          First off:
          They played Minnesota and Q...that's about it.
          That right there is 5 of Yale's 10 games haha

          Yale's played one team outside of most people's top 15 -- one game against Merrimack. That's it.

          Otherwise their entire schedule consists of BU (PWR 12th), Quinnipiac x3 (4th), Minnesota x2 (3rd), Princeton (10th), Harvard (6th), and Dartmouth (16th). That is a ridiculous schedule, and to say "that's about it" outside of Minnesota and Q shows some craaaaaaaaazy WCHA bias haha...

          One bad team for Yale vs. four for UMD (Lindenwood x2 and Mankato x2). Despite the "top" of UMD's schedule being maybe a bit better than Yale's its bottom is definitely worse. Mathematically, that's where the difference comes from.

          Anyway it's still wicked early for the Ivies -- those strength of schedule numbers aren't worth much for them right now. Neither UMD nor Yale's SOS is going to end up even close to 0.600, it's just not possible.
          Last edited by TonyTheTiger20; 11-30-2015, 05:23 PM.
          Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
          Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
          Twitter: @Salzano14


          Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

          Comment


          • #35
            Re: Fun With Numbers: 2016 Pairwise Predictor, What-Ifs, and Other Goodies

            No one else but UMD has had 6 games against the top three teams plus an additional 2 against Harvard. Those 8 games "trump" the 5 of Yale to me.
            At the outset, we could hang with the dude...

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            • #36
              Re: Fun With Numbers: 2016 Pairwise Predictor, What-Ifs, and Other Goodies

              Originally posted by FiveHoleFrenzy View Post
              No one else but UMD has had 6 games against the top three teams plus an additional 2 against Harvard. Those 8 games "trump" the 5 of Yale to me.
              Duluth has played 16 games to Yale's 10. Both of those are half of its team's games. And anyway you can think Duluth's should be 1 and Yale's 2 or vice versa but I was just saying they both belong in the same stratosphere.
              Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
              Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
              Twitter: @Salzano14


              Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

              Comment


              • #37
                Re: Fun With Numbers: 2016 Pairwise Predictor, What-Ifs, and Other Goodies

                Originally posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
                Duluth has played 16 games to Yale's 10. Both of those are half of its team's games. And anyway you can think Duluth's should be 1 and Yale's 2 or vice versa but I was just saying they both belong in the same stratosphere.
                It's all good, I really just wanted to use the word trump in a sentence.
                At the outset, we could hang with the dude...

                Comment


                • #38
                  Re: Fun With Numbers: 2016 Pairwise Predictor, What-Ifs, and Other Goodies

                  Originally posted by FiveHoleFrenzy View Post
                  It's all good, I really just wanted to use the word trump in a sentence.
                  Are you saying you used your trump card??
                  Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
                  Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
                  Twitter: @Salzano14


                  Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Re: Fun With Numbers: 2016 Pairwise Predictor, What-Ifs, and Other Goodies

                    Originally posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
                    Are you saying you used your trump card??
                    Ummm...yeah.

                    https://media.giphy.com/media/Qjmp5vKEERPyw/giphy.gif
                    At the outset, we could hang with the dude...

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Re: Fun With Numbers: 2016 Pairwise Predictor, What-Ifs, and Other Goodies

                      Has it been announced yet when the Women's Frozen Tickets go on sale?

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                      • #41
                        Re: Fun With Numbers: 2016 Pairwise Predictor, What-Ifs, and Other Goodies

                        I haven't seen anything yet but I wouldn't worry, I would be surprised if it sold out
                        Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
                        Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
                        Twitter: @Salzano14


                        Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Re: Fun With Numbers: 2016 Pairwise Predictor, What-Ifs, and Other Goodies

                          Percentage of team's SOG that are goals scored:
                          1- 16.50%- Minnesota
                          2- 13.43%- Boston College
                          3- 13.42%- Northeastern
                          4- 11.52%- St. Cloud State
                          5- 11.03%- Wisconsin
                          6- 10.70%- Robert Morris
                          7- 10.45%- Yale
                          8- 10.17%- Cornell
                          9- 10.15%- Quinnipiac
                          10- 9.91%- Harvard
                          11- 9.75%- Providence
                          12- 9.73%- Boston University
                          13- 9.48%- Princeton
                          14- 9.35%- St. Lawrence
                          15- 9.27%- Syracuse
                          16- 9.16%- Colgate
                          17- 9.07%- Ohio State
                          18- 9.06%- Merrimack
                          19- 8.73%- Mercyhurst
                          20- 8.47%- Clarkson
                          21- 8.22%- Connecticut
                          22- 8.17%- Bemidji State
                          23- 8.17%- North Dakota
                          24- 8.10%- Lindenwood
                          25- 8.03%- Maine
                          26- 7.67%- Dartmouth
                          27- 7.26%- Minnesota Duluth
                          28- 7.18%- Rensselaer
                          29- 7.18%- Penn State
                          30- 6.81%- New Hampshire
                          31- 6.78%- Minnesota State
                          32- 6.73%- RIT
                          33- 6.65%- Vermont
                          34- 5.85%- Brown
                          35- 5.08%- Union

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Re: Fun With Numbers: 2016 Pairwise Predictor, What-Ifs, and Other Goodies

                            Percentage of opponent's SOG that are goals scored:
                            1- 2.45%- Wisconsin
                            2- 4.15%- Harvard
                            3- 5.21%- Boston College
                            4- 5.69%- Connecticut
                            5- 6.27%- Quinnipiac
                            6- 6.58%- Clarkson
                            7- 6.65%- Princeton
                            8- 6.69%- Bemidji State
                            9- 7.17%- Union
                            10- 7.38%- Penn State
                            11- 7.73%- Rensselaer
                            12- 7.77%- Robert Morris
                            13- 7.86%- Lindenwood
                            14- 7.87%- Colgate
                            15- 7.95%- Minnesota
                            16- 8.01%- Dartmouth
                            17- 8.11%- Maine
                            18- 9.87%- Minnesota Duluth
                            19- 10.00%- Northeastern
                            20- 10.48%- Boston University
                            21- 10.51%- Cornell
                            22- 10.66%- North Dakota
                            23- 10.77%- St. Cloud State
                            24- 11.18%- Brown
                            25- 11.30%- St. Lawrence
                            26- 11.46%- Minnesota State
                            27- 11.61%- Merrimack
                            28- 11.92%- Mercyhurst
                            29- 11.93%- RIT
                            30- 12.15%- Syracuse
                            31- 12.15%- Vermont
                            32- 12.33%- Providence
                            33- 13.03%- Ohio State
                            34- 13.38%- New Hampshire
                            35- 13.70%- Yale

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                            • #44
                              Originally posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
                              I haven't seen anything yet but I wouldn't worry, I would be surprised if it sold out
                              Doesn't it sell out every year? I'd like to be able to pay like 35 per ticket for the whole weekend or whatever it usually is instead of the 50 per ticket I had to pay at Quinnipiac 2 years ago just to watch the championship game... Though it was well worth it to see my school beat the monster that was Minnesota

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                              • #45
                                Re: Fun With Numbers: 2016 Pairwise Predictor, What-Ifs, and Other Goodies

                                I've admittedly only been to one Frozen Four out east, at QU, but I don't think that was sold out, and I think UNH is a bigger rink.

                                There are definitely others that can give you a more informed answer than me though!

                                EDIT: QU holds 3,200 and UNH holds 7,500... So there you go haha -- so there's pretty much no way this sells out
                                Last edited by TonyTheTiger20; 12-03-2015, 06:15 PM.
                                Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
                                Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
                                Twitter: @Salzano14


                                Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

                                Comment

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