Re: Fun With Numbers: 2016 Pairwise Predictor, What-Ifs, and Other Goodies
I've been thinking about the strength of schedule question lately. RPI's SOS calculation seems to be extra crappy for some reason and I've been curious about why.
College hockey calculates RPI in a different way than most sports. Most sports take Win%/OppWin%/OppOppWin% as a .25/.50/.25 split.
Women's hockey not only has a different split at .30/.24/.46, but it emphasizes a different value entirely -- instead of putting the most weight on opponent's winning percentage like just about every sport, it puts the most weight on opponent's opponents' winning percentage.
I'm not really sure why. OppOppWin% is the value that converges to 0.500 the quickest and seems borderline random. For example look at Duluth -- it doesn't take a calculator to tell that they have the toughest strength of schedule, and yet their OppOppWin% -- again, the biggest factor in calculating RPI -- is below .500!
Which brings me to strength of schedule. Strength of schedule in RPI is calculated as the ratio of the last two numbers, which as we know is wildly different than in any other sport.
Just for kicks, here is what the RPI would look like if women's hockey used a standard .25/.50/.25 split instead of what is used now:
1) Wisconsin .7985
2) BC .7819
3) Minnesota .6854
4) Bemidji State .6335
5) Clarkson .6243
6) Quinnipiac .6180
7) Northeastern .5872
8) Minnesota-Duluth .5894 !!!!!!!
9) Harvard .5735
10) St. Lawrence .5842
11) Princeton .5720
12) North Dakota .5551
That is insane. Duluth's RPI goes from 18th in the country (.5048), and barely a TUC, all the way up to 8th!!! in the country at .5894. That is completely nuts.
So the question is, why does women's hockey calculate its RPI so weirdly??
And in case you were wondering, the SOS calculation would change to:
1) Yale .6335
2) UMD .6251
3) SLU .5611
4) BSU .5509
5) Cornell .5487
6) OSU .5463
7) BC .5342
...
13) Minnesota .5055
...
28) Wisconsin .4868 (yikes)
I've been thinking about the strength of schedule question lately. RPI's SOS calculation seems to be extra crappy for some reason and I've been curious about why.
College hockey calculates RPI in a different way than most sports. Most sports take Win%/OppWin%/OppOppWin% as a .25/.50/.25 split.
Women's hockey not only has a different split at .30/.24/.46, but it emphasizes a different value entirely -- instead of putting the most weight on opponent's winning percentage like just about every sport, it puts the most weight on opponent's opponents' winning percentage.
I'm not really sure why. OppOppWin% is the value that converges to 0.500 the quickest and seems borderline random. For example look at Duluth -- it doesn't take a calculator to tell that they have the toughest strength of schedule, and yet their OppOppWin% -- again, the biggest factor in calculating RPI -- is below .500!
Which brings me to strength of schedule. Strength of schedule in RPI is calculated as the ratio of the last two numbers, which as we know is wildly different than in any other sport.
Just for kicks, here is what the RPI would look like if women's hockey used a standard .25/.50/.25 split instead of what is used now:
1) Wisconsin .7985
2) BC .7819
3) Minnesota .6854
4) Bemidji State .6335
5) Clarkson .6243
6) Quinnipiac .6180
7) Northeastern .5872
8) Minnesota-Duluth .5894 !!!!!!!
9) Harvard .5735
10) St. Lawrence .5842
11) Princeton .5720
12) North Dakota .5551
That is insane. Duluth's RPI goes from 18th in the country (.5048), and barely a TUC, all the way up to 8th!!! in the country at .5894. That is completely nuts.
So the question is, why does women's hockey calculate its RPI so weirdly??
And in case you were wondering, the SOS calculation would change to:
1) Yale .6335
2) UMD .6251
3) SLU .5611
4) BSU .5509
5) Cornell .5487
6) OSU .5463
7) BC .5342
...
13) Minnesota .5055
...
28) Wisconsin .4868 (yikes)
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